2015 Linebacker and Safety Prospects

Last week I started my look at the defensive side of the ball by breaking down the top interior defensive linemen. Now I will look at the middle of the defense on the next two levels of the field. I decided to combine safeties and inside linebackers into one post for a couple of reasons. First, there are a few players this year who straddle the definitions between the two positions. Second, this class is utterly bereft at the safety position, and it wouldn’t have made any sense to put them on their own.

Eric Kendricks – LB UCLA

Kendricks may not be a prototypical, traditional linebacker, but he is the perfect player to man this position in the modern NFL. A bit undersized at 6’0” and 232 pounds, he makes up for his shortcomings with blazing speed and fluidity. He is everywhere on the field on every play, covering ground from sideline to sideline and on all levels of the defense. He is at his best playing in space, where his athleticism makes him more than a match for any ball carrier that comes his way.

When most people think of linebackers, they still picture a big, physical force whose first job is to stuff the running game. But over the past decade the position has evolved, bringing in quicker athletes who excel in pass coverage rather than in run defense. Kendricks is another of such player. He has the athleticism to turn his hips and run stride for stride with just about any receiver in man coverage, and he takes deep, aggressive drops when asked to play zone. He is incredibly smart at reading the offensive play, recognizing routes and often beating receivers to the intended destination.

Kendricks’s strength is against the pass, but he is hardly a liability against the run. Always around the football, he covers a lot of ground to cut off perimeter attacks and shoots hard upfield when a run comes towards him, knifing between blockers and finding the ball carrier in traffic. He can sometimes be a little hesitant on his reads, and he needs to do a better job keeping his legs driving through contact. He is very adept at avoiding blocks, but once he’s engaged he struggles to break free.

These issues will lead to Kendricks falling some in the draft, along with a lack of value placed on his position. But there is no doubt in my mind that he is the most talented and most rounded linebacker in this draft. He is a three down player in the NFL who can start right away, and anyone who has a chance to grab him in the middle of the first round should leap at the opportunity.

Landon Collins – S Alabama

If you’re a team looking to grab a safety at the top of this year’s draft, Collins is pretty much your only option. The cupboard is bare this year, and for that reason a team will likely be forced to reach for a merely great prospect. Collins does some things well, particularly as an in the box safety. He is big, roughly the same size as several of the top linebackers, and he has above average straightline speed. But anything earlier than twenty would be a reach for him.

Collins is at his best against the run, particularly runs to the perimeter. He takes fantastic angles and attacks downhill, often making plays in the backfield before the runner can get turned upfield. He isn’t as effective between the tackles, where he can get lost in the wash of blockers, but he is still capable of bouncing down into the box and playing as an extra linebacker if necessary.

As an athlete Collins boasts plenty of speed to go along with his size but falls short when it comes to lateral quickness. He doesn’t change direction particularly well, and his make up speed leaves a lot to be desired. It doesn’t help that he has a bad habit of biting on fakes, taking him out of position so he has to hurry to make up the ground he’s wasted.

As a cover guy he is best in zone where he doesn’t have to track the sharp cuts of receivers. He can cover a lot of ground from side to side, and he plays the ball well at the point of the catch. He is physical without being dangerous, and he likely won’t attract a high number of penalties in the NFL. The issue will again be how he reads the opposing offense, something that can hopefully be corrected with practice.

Collins can be a very good, potentially Pro Bowl level player if he polishes his game up a little. He’d be best suited on a team that lets him freelance some in the box, someone who will use him as Arizona used Deone Buchannon last season. He will always have some limitations, but this year he’s as good as you’re going to find at the safety position.

Shaq Thompson – LB/S, Washington

 

There really isn’t another player in this draft like Thompson, and I’m not sure if that’s a good or a bad thing. Popular opinion seems to have settled on him as a linebacker, but there are still some out there who believe he would best contribute as a safety, and even a few holdouts who think he can play running back in the NFL. He is that kind of rare athlete, fast and fluid with almost immeasurable potential.

In many ways Thompson can be looked at as a more athletic but less polished version of Kendricks. His strength is in coverage, possessing the speed and quickness to shadow receivers across the middle of the field. His skills in man to man are better than in zone, where he lacks Kendricks’s route recognition and instinctiveness with his drops. This is part of the reason why he wouldn’t be as successful at safety, where he would spend more time stuck trying to read plays from zone rather than using his athleticism to track receivers one on one.

Like Kendricks, Thompson can be incredibly dangerous against the run, shooting through blockers with aggression and speed other linebackers simply don’t possess. But these flashes are less frequent than the higher ranking linebacker, and he spends a lot more time caught up in the wash of blockers. He needs to get bigger and stronger at the next level if he is going to be even an average run defender.

Thompson’s career will be defined by his coaching. Anyone who tries to plug him into a traditional linebacker role will likely just waste the skills he alredy possesses trying to develop those he never will. More creative coaches will use him in multiple ways, moving him all over the defense and letting his athleticism shine as his knowledge of the game develops. He can spend time controlling the edge and chasing runners down from behind. He can bring pass rush as a blitzer up the middle. He can line up man to man across from receivers and tight ends in the slot. The potential here makes Thompson worthy of a first round pick, even though the risk for a bust is higher than just about any other player in the draft.

Benardrick McKinney – LB, Mississippi State

Here at last we have a traditional inside linebacker, big and strong and dedicated to stuffing the run. Standing 6’4” and weighing 246 pounds, McKinney towers over every other linebacker likely to go at the top of the draft. He combines this with phenomenal workout numbers, running a 4.66 forty and a mind blowing vertical leap of 40.5 inches. There is a lot to like about McKinney long term, even if he needs quite a bit of work to harness his potential.

McKinney is at his best when the play comes right at him. He meets blockers in the hole and knocks them backwards, often enough to disrupt the play itself. He needs to do a better job shedding these blockers to make a tackle, but when he has a clear lane downhill to the ball carrier, he stops him dead in his tracks. Where the other top linebackers dance through blockers with grace and agility, McKinney bowls through them like a heat seeking missile.

He has more trouble when he’s asked to move side to side. He doesn’t do a great job fighting laterally through blockers, and he usually retreats in order to scrape over the top of the wash. Out in space he has issues tackling, sometimes forgetting to use his arms and instead going for a knockout blow. He won’t be making many tackles at the sidelines, and faster running backs will be able to outrace him to the edge on a consistent basis.

In a league that has embraced the passing game like the NFL has, a player like McKinney has lost a great deal of the value he would have had a decade ago. He is useless in pass coverage and will likely have to come off the field in third down situations. He is probably the best blitzing interior linebacker in this draft, but he isn’t good enough to play consistently on the edge. His ability against the run makes him worthy of a second round pick, and I think it’s a reasonable toss up between him and the next player on this list.

Denzel Perryman – LB, Miami

Another smaller, quicker linebacker of the same mold as Kendricks and Thompson, Perryman is a talented linebacker who is a step behind the other two in every aspect of the game. He is coming off of a productive career at Miami, but his lack of size and merely average athleticism will give him issues transitioning to the next level.

Perryman has fantastic closing speed, but he struggles to harness it in a productive way. He is very hesitant with his reads, hanging back at his initial depth until the play has already developed. This leaves him a step behind and often eliminates any angles he might have to make a play at or behind the line of scrimmage. When he does shoot downhill he can be a devastating run defender, but he also has a habit of playing out of control, racing past the ballcarrier and missing tackles. These are minor things that can be cleaned up with coaching at the next level, but he will take more time to develop than the other top linebackers.

Where he really falls short of Kendricks and Thompson is in pass coverage. His straightline speed can come close to matching theirs, but he doesn’t have anywhere near the fluidity in his athleticism. His zone drops are awkward and shallow, and he struggles to change direction to keep up with receivers as they run their routes. This lack of fluidity hurts him when he attempts to make tackles in space, and even though he does a good job wrapping with his arms he is vulnerable to quick, change of direction runners.

Perryman does some things well, which is why he is still probably worth a second round pick. He offers decent positional versatility, with experience bouncing to the outside and playing as an edge rusher. He meets blockers in the hole well, and if he can add weight he can be a more traditional run stuffer than Kendricks or Thompson will ever be. Down the road he can be a capable starter, but he doesn’t offer much in the way of immediate impact or long term upside.

Paul Dawson – LB, TCU

The presence of Dawson in this draft is almost like a rule of nature. In a year with linebackers as phenomenally fluid and athletic as Kendricks and Thompson, there needs to be someone on the other end of the spectrum to balance them out. Dawson is a dreadful athlete, with a combine performance so terrible that he felt the need to go on Twitter to defend himself. The best forty he was able to run was 4.93, and the highest vertical leap he could manage was 28 inches. Add that to a small stature and poor quickness and you’re looking at a player who is seriously straining the bounds of minimum athleticism necessary to make a career in the NFL.

There has been a lot of blowback following Dawson’s combine from those who believe these sort of tests have no merit whatsoever. They point to Dawson’s film to defend him, claiming it should bear more value than simple tests of athleticism. And while I agree that his film shows a quality college player, it also reveals flaws that were reinforced by his failure at the combine.

Dawson is a very instinctive player who makes quick reads and attacks aggressively downhill. He makes more plays in the backfield than any of the other top linebackers, though many are just cleanups after his teammates disrupt the play. He does a good job scraping through traffic, and he doesn’t let blockers control him after the initial engagement.

He is as polished as any linebacker in the draft, but there are still concerns about his athleticism. He doesn’t have the ability to make up ground if he makes a mistake with his reads, and his aggression opens a lot of running lanes a more conservative player wouldn’t allow. His only real hope of staying with a receiver in coverage is to grab him, and his lack of athleticism will always hold him back in this area. Blockers knock him backwards upon initial contact, and quick running backs can make him miss tackles even when he has good technique.

It is very possible that Dawson will be able to overcome his shortcomings and become a quality NFL starter, the sort of player who will give anecdotal ammunition to the segment of people who despise the combine. But it’s also possible that his lack of athleticism will prevent him from ever seeing the field. The upside for Dawson is minimal, and even his success in college would not convince me to spend more than a third round pick on him.

Gerod Holliman – S, Louisville

 

What do you do with a player who is absolutely dominant in one facet of the game and absolutely wretched in another? Do you invest in him, hoping he can provide enough value in the first area while he develops in the second? Or do you avoid him, knowing that no matter what he does he’ll always be a liability? This is the question teams have to answer with Holliman, one of the more intriguing prospects in the entire draft class.

Holliman is the best coverage safety available in the draft. Last season he tied the NCAA single season record with 14 interceptions, and after watching him play it seems surprising that he didn’t have more. He is brilliant at playing the ball in the air, and he has incredibly soft hands. He makes sharp breaks on the ball, and he does a very good job reading routes to undercut the receivers. He can play zone at any level of the field, but his greatest value comes sitting back over the top. His speed isn’t anything spectacular, but he breaks early and can cover a lot of ground side to side.

Holliman is so good at coverage that even if he was slightly below average in every other facet of the game, he would still likely be a first round pick. The problem is, he isn’t even close to below average when it comes to tackling. It is almost comical watching him try to bring ball carriers down. Every way it’s possible to miss a tackle, he manages to do it. Overpowered, juked, taking poor angles, dragged three or four yards before his teammates close in. It may sound like I’m exaggerating, but I am not. I have never seen a football player at this high a level who is this bad at tackling (excluding some, but not all, kickers and punters). The fact that he managed to get playing time at Louisville despite being this wretched at tackling is a testament to just how good he is in coverage.

So what do you do? There are some things you can say in Holliman’s defense. Very few of his missed tackles come due to poor effort. He is a smart player, makes excellent reads (besides biting on the occasional fake), and there is something to be said for at least being in position for as many tackles as he misses. Given time to grow stronger and practice his technique, he might become serviceable as an NFL tackler. If that ever happens, he would become one of the top safeties in the league. If it doesn’t, then he can’t even contribute on special teams. High risk and high reward, the sort of player I think would be worth going in the third round at the highest.