2015 Quarterback Prospects

As in almost every draft, the most intriguing question this year is which quarterback is the best available. The quarterback position is insanely valuable in the NFL, the addition or loss of a single player being enough to completely alter the course of a franchise. This year’s draft is even more drastic than most, with two quarterbacks fighting for the top spot above a significant drop off to the next option. There are some intriguing prospects that will be available in the second, third, or even fourth rounds, but if you’re a team looking for a quarterback this year, you’re probably best off doing anything you can to get one of the top two.

Marcus Mariota – Oregon

I put a lot of consideration into ranking Winston ahead of Mariota. In fact, if you’d asked me before I wrote this up, I probably would have told you Winston was my highest rated quarterback. This is an extremely close race, as close as any two prospects in the draft. I won’t go back to adjust my ratings at any point, but it’s possible that by the time I come out with my mock draft that I will have Winston going before Mariota. There are a lot of things to like about each prospect, and several things not to like. Ultimately, the decision comes down to personal preference and risk aversion.

As a physical specimen Mariota doesn’t match up to Winston, but that doesn’t mean he’s lacking in this area. He has good size and above average arm strength, and he is absolutely lethal as a runner. Mariota has decent wiggle, but he generates most of his success on the ground through deception and pure speed. He accelerates quickly downhill, destroying angles as he races past a defense before they even realize he has the ball.

Mariota is better as a scripted runner than as a scrambler, and his best option when escaping the pocket is to find somewhere to throw the ball. He is inconsistent when throwing on the move, but he does a good job keeping his eyes downfield to identify open receivers. As a last ditch effort he can dive ahead for five to ten yards, but where he really creates big plays is as a passer outside the pocket.

There are some concerns about how he will transition to the NFL from his college scheme, and these aren’t totally unfounded. Many of the plays he ran in college were very simple, requiring him to make a single read and get the ball quickly out of his hand. But when he was asked to run more complex sets, he did show the ability to make the plays necessary to succeed. He can move quickly between multiple reads, and he shows understanding of how to manipulate defenders with his eyes. Even though this didn’t happen on a play to play basis, it was consistent enough across his games to convince me that he will have only mild difficulties transitioning to a full scale NFL scheme. It might take more time than Winston, but it won’t be anything like the struggles of Johnny Manziel or Robert Griffin III.

If there’s an issue to pick at with Mariota, it’s how he handles pressure. He doesn’t move instinctively through the pocket, his first move usually to escape to the outside. He is dangerous on the move, but he also cuts off a huge chunk of the field whenever he chooses to run to one side or the other. With pressure in his face his mechanics will break down, leading to errant throws. His accuracy is pinpoint on the carefully structured, single read plays, but he can become errant when forced to move to other options.

Mariota doesn’t have the same upside as Winston, but he has significantly less risk. A smart system will allow him to adapt immediately to the NFL, learning the more complex stuff while he makes plays with what he was doing in college. He boasts wonderful physical skills, a strong and accurate arm combined with an intuitive understanding of the game. Whoever gets Mariota (provided the coaches don’t screw it up) will likely be set at quarterback for the next ten years. That sort of certainty makes it difficult not to slot him at the top of my quarterback rankings.

Jameis Winston – Florida State

The off the field concerns with Winston have received a lot of attention, and rightfully so. But from a football perspective, the biggest red flags are the interceptions. He threw eighteen of them last year, tied for second most in all of college football. These interceptions came in a number of ways—inaccuracy with the ball, pressure affecting the throw, defenders he didn’t see. But the vast majority of them came for a single simple reason: overaggressiveness. Too often Winston tried to fit the ball into tight windows, windows that closed before the ball arrived. This is a concern, but there is another factor that mediates it somewhat. For every time Winston produced a negative play when missing these windows, he produced a majorly positive one by hitting them.

It is impossible to watch Winston and not fall in love with the way he throws the football. Two or three times in each game he will complete a pass that simply doesn’t make sense, the sort of throw only four or five people on the planet could ever hope to make. Even when his receivers are perfectly covered, he is capable of finding that one spot where the defender can’t make the play. He can rocket balls between two collapsing defensive backs. He can loft the ball over the top with pristine touch. He can lay the ball out on the sideline where only his receiver can get it. When it comes to pure arm talent, I’m not sure there’s a single quarterback in the NFL who surpasses Winston.

There are a few mechanical issues that can be raised. His delivery is a bit elongated, possibly a cause of some passing lanes closing before the ball can get through. This will be a pain to fix, and it’s minor enough that it might not be worth the trouble. His footwork is excellent under normal conditions, though like Mariota it breaks down when he faces pressure. The difference is, when Winston’s footwork breaks down, it does not seem to affect his throws. Once again his incredible arm is his saving grace, allowing him to deliver a perfect pass no matter what base he’s standing on.

Winston is a rare talent, with an excellent understanding of the game and phenomenal football tools If we could just forget the off the field stuff and treat this competition in a football vacuum, I’d probably rank him slightly ahead of Mariota. But as years of studying physics have taught me, we’re never actually in a vacuum. The various off the field troubles combine with Winston’s turnovers on the field to show a consistent trend of poor decision making. I don’t know if this is a reasonable comparison to make, and I don’t know if this is something that might go away as he matures. But it’s enough to add an extra dose of risk, enough to knock him down below Mariota. If Winston does end up going off the board first, I will have no problem with the team that makes that decision. One way or another, these should be the first two players drafted this year.

Garrett Grayson – Colorado State

The top two quarterbacks in this draft are set, but after that it becomes a lot more interesting. There are several options that could turn into starters down the road, but no one with anywhere near enough certainty to spend a first round pick on. The next tier is closely bunched together, but of the three I see Grayson as the best option for a team looking for a quarterback on the second or third day of the draft.

Grayson is the most prototypical, pocket passer of the five I broke down. He has decent functional mobility, but he isn’t going to scare defenses as a running threat. He’s going to scare defenses doing what he did in college, standing in the middle of the field and attacking anywhere he can see.

His ball doesn’t come out with the same zip as some of the other quarterbacks, and I could see him having trouble with defenders undercutting his routes before he gets used to NFL speed. But he has the arm strength to make any throw from sideline to sideline, and he throws an absolutely gorgeous deep ball, capable of dropping it perfectly on target sixty yards downfield. Work with NFL trainers could probably add some velocity to his ball, and with better mechanics and better timing he can probably learn to zip it past defenders into tight windows.

Grayson’s greatest strength comes on throws in the intermediate range over the middle. He has excellent anticipation, throwing the ball before a window opens with confidence that it will be there when the ball arrives. He lofts the ball with excellent touch and usually places it in perfect position for his receiver to make the catch. He is more aggressive at throwing into tight spaces than any of these quarterbacks besides Winston, and he still managed to throw only seven interceptions last season.

There is a lot of work Grayson needs to do to transition from his simple college system to the NFL, and his upside is limited. He showed flashes of ability to move through his reads at the college level, but he also had a habit of locking on to a single receiver and either forcing it into coverage or holding until the pass rush closed in. He handles himself well under pressure, making subtle movements in the pocket to give himself a clear throwing lane. He’s more polished than people give him credit for, and I think with a year or two on the bench he can become an average NFL starter.

Brett Hundley – UCLA

Hundley is not ready to play quarterback in the NFL. In fact, he probably could have gone back to UCLA, made significant strides his senior year, and still not been ready to play quarterback in the NFL. He is as raw as they come, an impressive physical specimen who still has a lot of work to do before he gets under center in a professional game. Drafting him is drafting upside, with the hopes your coaches can harness his massive potential.

Physically, Hundley has the sort of tools that would make him a first round pick if he had even a little bit of polish. The ball launches from his hand, going very far and very fast. He can put the ball anywhere he needs to on the field, and he shows flashes of precision to go along with his strength. He is also a superb athlete, recording one of the ten best 20 yard shuttle times of any player at the combine. Had he been a wide receiver, he would have tied Amari Cooper for the best score in this agility test at the combine. He is that sort of special athlete, and it shows on the field.

As a quarterback, it is a different story. Many have accused Mariota of being a product of a system, but no one is more a product of their system than Hundley. More than half his throws came within five yards of the line of scrimmage, most on designed screen plays that were little more than runs. This boosts his completion percentage while not demonstrating any real strengths as a passer. When he was asked to throw downfield, he regularly missed easy passes. He also had a habit of getting impatient and trying to force the ball deep, even when there was nothing there.

Hundley has no experience playing in a system that requires him to make complex reads. With excellent protection he is able to move to his second and third receivers, but if he senses any pressure he immediately tucks the ball and runs. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, since right now he is a better runner than a passer. He doesn’t have the pure speed of Mariota, but he is a better overall runner thanks to his quickness and instincts. In fact, he may be the best pure runner as a quarterback to enter the league since Pat White.

So with all these shortcomings, why do I have Hundley ranked ahead of Bryce Petty? Potential. As inconsistent as he was during college, several times a game he showed the ability to make incredible throws, lasers to the back shoulder or perfectly lobbed deep passes down the sideline. If he can harness every piece of his potential, his upside is as a top ten quarterback in the league. This is a big “if” however, the sort that is barely more than wishful thinking at this point. I’d take him somewhere in the fourth round, just on the off chance he can be developed into something more than he is.

Bryce Petty - Baylor

Petty is probably the least physically gifted of these top five quarterbacks. His arm is nothing special, and he isn’t going to blow anyone away with his athleticism. He is serviceable in both facets, but the primary reasons for his productivity in college were his intelligence, understanding of the game, and a system that set him up to succeed.

Baylor’s offense was built around timing patterns, and by his final season Petty had mastered all fine details of these patterns. He throws with excellent anticipation, the ball often coming out of his hand before the receiver makes his break. Against Baylor’s up tempo offense most opposing defenses were in no position to counter this, giving him easy reads and easy throws on a consistent basis.

The other crucial piece of Petty’s game is his deep ball. He does a good job recognizing coverage over the top, knowing when he has more receivers running deep than the safeties could possibly cover. His deep ball accuracy isn’t elite, but he made up for it in college with sheer volume. It helped that he was surrounded by one of the best groups of receivers in the nation, athletes who consistently gave him wide windows to throw into. But he also helped these windows by using his eyes to hold the safeties in place, switching to his intended target just as he throws the pass.

There are little things about Petty that will hold him back. His ball placement is inconsistent, often leading receivers out of bounds or forcing them to go to the ground to make catches. Like Mariota and Hundley, he has virtually no experience making the complex reads required by NFL offenses and defenses. In college everything came easy to him, quick and simple reads to receivers who were athletically superior to anyone placed across from them, behind an offensive line that almost always kept him clean. On the few occasions he faced adversity, he struggled. He isn’t a great improvisational quarterback, and once he leaves the flow of the play he struggles to find open receivers.

Petty’s understanding of the game will help him make a smooth transition to the NFL, but his other shortcomings will likely hold him back from ever being more than a placeholder as a starter. He’s the sort of player who will be a valuable backup, helping in the film room and posing as a dangerous fill in threat for a game or two. But I’m not a fan of drafting a quarterback simply for backup potential, and I wouldn’t take him until at least the fifth round.