2015 Draft Review

So the first round of the NFL draft happened yesterday, and it was kind of boring. There were no major trades, no shocking picks. Everything went pretty much according to script, besides a few small falls. Still, it was a fun night with a lot of teams making interesting picks. I’ve broken down each and every pick below, plus a few other notes on what we’ve seen and what we will see going forward at the bottom.

1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State

No surprises here. Jameis Winston went first overall to Tampa Bay, just as everyone has been predicting for the past three months. I miss the old days when teams would just do away with the dramatics and sign the player to a contrac before the draft, but whatever. Winston partners with Mike Evans to give Tampa Bay one of the best young combos in the league. They still need someone—anyone—to protect him, but they’ll have the second pick tomorrow.

2) Tennessee Titans – Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon

Tennessee decided to hold onto the pick rather than trade it, despite late pushes from Philadelphia and Chicago. The packages they were receiving didn’t measure up to what they thought the pick was worth, and they certainly can use a player of Mariota’s talents. I’m not sure how he’ll fit into Tennessee’s scheme, or rather how Tennessee’s scheme will adapt for him. Long term I think it will be a success, but there will probably be some bumps along the road.

3) Jacksonville Jaguars – Dante Fowler Jr, OLB/DE, Florida

Everything is going according to script so far. I am very high on Fowler, an explosive and athletic pass rusher. He has some flaws to iron out in his game, but even if he doesn’t harness his full potential he can be a Pro Bowl level player. Jacksonville had a surprisingly effective pass rush last year, but they need talent to plug into their scheme. Fowler is extremely versatile, a dream for any defensive coordinator.

4) Oakland Raiders – Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama

Oakland didn’t buy into the Kevin White hype, instead going for the more polished receiver. If I had put together a full big board, I probably would have ranked him as the number one overall player. He is an insanely good route runner, better than most established NFL receivers. He will dominate in the underneath areas, the part of the field Carr excels at picking apart. It remains to be seen whether Carr can develop a deep passing game, and Cooper probably won’t be a huge help there, but he is certainly an excellent addition to any offense.

5) Washington Redskins – Brandon Scherff, OG, Iowa

This was the first real surprise. Scherff was probably going to be the first lineman off the board, but this is a lot higher than I think he should have gone. His footwork needs a lot of work, and his physical abilities will probably hold him back from ever being a left tackle. Fortunately the Redskins have that position locked down, and he might be able to hang in on the right side. I don’t love the value of this pick, but it fits a need for a team that wasn’t able to trade down.

6) New York Jets – Leonard Williams, DT/DE, USC

Williams has great value here, but he absolutely does not fill a position of need. The Jets already have superstars in Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson to play the same position, and it will be very interesting to see how they get all these players on the field. It could be an utter disaster, or it could be a nightmare for any offense they face. Three extremely talented, extremely versatile players are never a bad thing. Even if they can’t figure it out, this gives them more flexibility to trade Wilkerson if contract talks continue to stall.

7) Chicago Bears – Kevin White, WR, West Virginia

I don’t love this pick. The board broke down very well for the Bears, and they had essentially their choice of pass rushers. They need a lot of help on defense, and they already have a very good option at receiver in Alshon Jeffery. White certainly helps their offense, but no more so than Brandon Marshall did last year. Their biggest problems are still on the other side of the ball, and that’s going to remain true until they get an influx of young talent.

8) Atlanta Falcons – Vic Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson

This was the dream scenario for the Falcons. They needed a pass rusher, and they pretty much had their choice. They took the more polished Beasley over the athletic superstar Dupree. It will be interesting to see where he plays in Dan Quinn’s defense, whether he’s used exclusively as an edge rusher or if he makes a transition like Bruce Irvin’s. I expect it will be the former, a position of greater need that he fits better.

9) New York Giants – Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami

Flowers is athletic. And he’s big. That’s about all I have to say in his favor. He was my sixth ranked offensive tackle, and I wouldn’t have taken him in the first round. He plays off balance, reaching too far or sitting back on his heels. He gets pushed around far more often than a 315 pound man should. He could develop into a top notch tackle, but there is going to be a long and rough period before that happens.

10) St Louis Rams – Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia

I thought Gurley would go in the top ten, but I didn’t expect him to go to St Louis. St Louis doesn’t seem to care about team need, not after finding success with Aaron Donald last year. But after spending a third round pick on Tre Mason last season, a running back who found a lot of early success, it seems questionable to use a selection this high on a running back. Gurley will probably be a fantastic pro, but St Louis is going to have to start addressing their needs at some point.

11) Minnesota Vikings – Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State

I’m not a fan of this pick. I like Waynes, I think he’s the best cornerback in this draft, but this is too high for him. He has some issues that need ironed out, he’s not as big as people seem to think, and Minnesota’s cornerback situation is better than people think. The Vikings really wanted to trade down from this pick, and they clearly weren’t in love with players like DeVante Parker or Bud Dupree, but this is still a major reach. Waynes will be a quality starter, but at this point a team should want a Pro Bowl caliber player.

12) Cleveland Browns – Danny Shelton, DT, Washington

What do you know? This one lined up with both my mocks. It was no secret that the Browns needed a defensive tackle, and it was no secret that they loved Shelton. There were even rumors that they would try to trade up to get him, but he ended up being available when their pick came up. This pick will allow them to move on from the disappointing Phil Taylor, provided Shelton isn’t as big a bust as the rest of their recent draft picks.

13) New Orleans Saints – Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford

I like Peat, I like his value here, and I like the need for the Saints. Most expected them to address defense with this pick, but I like the decision to fill the hole on their offensive line. Peat is a classic left tackle, and it will be interesting to see whether the Saints put him there or if they decide to stick with Terron Armstead. Either way, they have a pair of excellent bookend tackles for years to come.

14) Miami Dolphins – DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville

Miami has completely reshuffled their receiving corps this offseason, casting off Brian Hartline and Mike Wallace, adding Greg Jennings and Kenny Stills. They finish this off with DeVante Parker, one of my favorite players in the draft. He gives them height to go along with their quicker receivers, a bookend for Stills that allows Jennings and Jarvis Landry to operate in the slot.

15) San Diego Chargers – Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin

And we have our first trade! Hooray! The Chargers jump up two picks to ensure they get a shot at a running back, grabbing Melvin Gordon as the second running back in the top fifteen. Now that they’ve moved past their dalliance with trading Rivers, they need to find talent to put around him. Gordon is a good complement to Branden Oliver, and running back is a position where a player can contribute immediately. It doesn’t make them a top notch team, but it gets them closer.

16) Houston Texans – Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest

Johnson has been shooting up boards for several weeks, and it isn’t surprising to see him go off the board as the second cornerback. I like what I’ve seen from him, but I am a little concerned about his lack of experience in man coverage. He could, an probably will, be a very good player, but the risk involved in a scheme change makes me a little uncomfortable with how high he went.

17) San Francisco 49ers – Arik Armstead, DE/DT, Oregon

This was as close to a consensus as there was in the draft outside the top three. Everyone expected Armstead to go to them at number 15, and it was no surprise that they stuck with that when they moved down to number 17. No one can replace Justin Smith, but Armstead can do a good job filling that role. His long arms will allow him to eat up blockers, keeping Aldon Smith and Navarro Bowman free to run after the ball.

18) Kansas City Chiefs – Marcus Peters, CB, Washington

I never considered mocking a cornerback to Kansas City, but it makes a lot of sense. They have a very good front seven, but they have only been able to put it together for short stretches because of their back end. Strong offers an excellent combination of size and skill, and he can start for them right away. He gambles a bit too often, and his athleticism isn’t spectacular, but he can be a quality starting cornerback, provided he solves his off the field issues.

19) Cleveland Browns – Cameron Erving, OL, Forida State

Everyone expected Cleveland to go with a wide receiver last year, or this year, or sometime. They will need to address that hole at some point, but for now I have no problem with them adding an interior lineman. Erving is a versatile player who can play just about anywhere on the line. Projected as a center, he will probably slot in beside Alex Mack at right guard. He’ll be a good utility starter on the line for years to come, allowing them to build that unit with flexibility.

20) Philadelphia Eagles – Nelson Agholor, WR, USC

Agholar doesn’t have the upside of some of the other available receivers, but he is a very polished player who has been climbing up draft boards. Philadelphia has cleaned out their larders at wide receiver, and they need someone on the outside to help their passing offense. He can create separation with his quickness off the line, opening up the short, simple throws that form the foundation of Kelly’s offense

21) Cincinnati Bengals – Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M

Okay, this is probably my least favorite pick of the first round. I said above that Ereck Flowers was my sixth ranked offensive tackle. Well Ogbuehi was my seventh, and there was a fairly sizeable gap. He struggled with injuries his final year in college, and that may have been part of the problem. But from the film I saw, he struggles with both his hands and his feet. He needs to polish his technique, and he needs to realize he has arms if he’s going to make the most of his athletic ability.

22) Pittsburgh Steelers – Bud Dupree, OLB, Kentucky

This was a surprising fall for Dupree. He had shot up the board thanks to a tremendous performance at the combine and the issues faced by Randy Gregory and Shane Ray. Top ten was definitely a possibility, but he ends up falling to the Steelers. Two years after Pittsburgh grabbed a falling Jarvis Jones to bolster their pass rush, they do the same with Dupree. The two are pretty much opposite players, Jones all polish and no athleticism. Dupree could turn out to be the top pass rusher from this draft, or he could be a major disappointment that sets their defense back three years.

23) Denver Broncos – Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri

I’m not completely sure about this one. Ray is a very good value this late, but I’m not sure how he fits in with the Broncos. Denver has played a 3-4 the past few years, and I expect they’ll stick with it under their new coaching staff. Ray doesn’t really fit this scheme. He doesn’t play well in space, and they already have two top notch pass rushers in DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller. If they are changing scheme, this would make some more sense. But I think they would have been better off grabbing Randy Gregory.

24) Arizona Cardinals – DJ Humphries, OT, Florida

Humphries is a very talented offensive tackle with huge upside, and Arizona can certainly use help on their offensive line. Humphries might not offer great immediate impact, but they have a couple quality starters to hold down the spot if they want to let him sit. If not, he can come in at right tackle and use his strength to clear holes in their running game. Now if only they’d traded for a running back…

25) Carolina Panthers – Shaq Thompson, LB, Washington

Everyone expected Carolina to go offensive line, but they fell in love with Thompson as the process went on. With several offensive linemen already taken, they decided to just go with the best player on their board. It was always going to be interesting to see how Thompson fit into the league, and it will be even more interesting in Carolina, where they already have two fantastic, athletic linebackers. Ron Rivera is an excellent defensive coordinator, and I can definitely imagine him finding a way to use Thompson as a hybrid linebacker/safety.

26) Baltimore Ravens – Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF

Huh, the Ravens did exactly what I said they would in my first mock draft. I expected Perriman to go higher in real life, but this makes a lot of sense for them. Joe Flacco is at his best throwing deep, and before this pick they had no one on their team who could consistently get open deep. Perriman is as raw as receivers come, but he certainly has the size and speed to be a high quality NFL player down the road.

27) Dallas Cowboys – Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut

The combine superstar sees his rise end in the first round, finally a cornerback to bolster Dallas’s defense. He is explosive, he is fast, and he had decent film in the short time he played cornerback. There is still a lot he needs to work on, and his injury history needs to be taken into account. I probably wouldn’t have taken him in the first round, but this late for a team with so many needs on defense, I can justify this decision.

28) Detroit Lions – Laken Tomlinson, OG, Duke

Detroit had needs on the offensive line coming into this draft, and they certainly did their job to fill them. They got excellent value to move down five picks, adding Manny Ramirez and a couple midround picks. And now they take Tomlinson, one of the highest rated guards in the draft. I’m not certain if Tomlinson deserved to go in the first round, but he is certainly capable of stepping in as a starting guard right away. He has good hands and good feet, though he could probably benefit from adding strength in his lower body. He isn’t going to bowl people over, but he does a good job keeping his body between the defender and the ball.

29) Indianapolis Colts – Philliip Dorsett, WR, Miami

I’d heard of Dorsett, but he was the first player that really shocked me going in the first round. I’m not sure I like this fit. From what I’ve seen of Dorsett, he’s a very similar player to TY Hilton. Luck throws a good deep ball, but he also throws a good ball everywhere else. I’d rather see them find someone who can exploit the field underneath, rather than trying to constantly throw deep behind a questionable offensive line.

30) Green Bay Packers – Damarious Randall, S, Arizona State

Last season Green Bay got a physical, in the box safety in Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. This year they add the coverage end of that bargain with Randall. Randall has been shooting up boards lately, moving from a third round pick to the first over the past month. He can be a bit overaggressive at times, and he needs to make significant improvements reading plays as they develop. But he has excellent speed to cover a lot of ground, and his length and instincts could make him a nightmare as a centerfielder for years to come.

31) New Orleans Saints – Stephone Anthony, LB, Clemson

Another later riser, a big, thumping inside linebacker with excellent athleticism. After going offense with their first pick, New Orleans pretty much had to do something to address their defense. I think this was a bit of a reach for Anthony, when better players were on the board at multiple positions. Randy Gregory is still out there, Landon Collins is still out there, and Eric Kendricks is still out there. Any of them would have been a great addition for the Saints.

32) New England Patriots – Malcom Brown, DT, Texas

I described Malcom Brown as a polished defensive tackle with minimal upside, someone who would be perfect going to a contender late in the first round. Well New England is pretty much the perfect example of such a team. He’ll partner with last year’s first round pick Dominique Easley as the Patriots continue to turn the focus of their defense from their secondary to their defensive line.

A few more quick notes:

·         After weeks of insane speculation, the first round was almost defined by a lack of trades. There were two deals made, the 49ers and the Chargers swapping picks 15 and 17, and the Lions and Broncos swapping 23 and 28. There were plenty of teams willing to trade down—the Redskins, Jets, and Vikings were all making serious efforts—but there simply weren’t teams interested in giving away multiple picks to move up. Popular wisdom in recent years has been that it’s advantageous to move down, and NFL teams seem to have jumped on this train of thought. So does this mean there won’t be trades going forward? No, it just means teams will be forced to reevaluate how they value draft picks, decreasing the weight of higher selections to better fit analytical models.

·         The trades that did happen were clear examples of a team winning by sliding down. Both San Diego and Denver gave up far more than the difference in picks were worth, for players they potentially could have gotten if they had just stayed in place.

·         A couple positions stood out. At one point there was speculation that as many as five edge rushers could go in the top ten. Only four went in the entire first round, the slide of Randy Gregory being the most obvious. Off the field issues were part of it, but it does seem that teams weren’t as eager to go all in on pass rush as I had anticipated.

·         The other interesting position is wide receiver. Traditionally it has been perceived that receiver is a difficult position at which to make the transition from college to professional, and that there wasn’t a huge loss in investing in a developmental prospect. After last season’s rookie class, teams seemed to place more value on immediate impact. The polished Amari Cooper went higher than the raw Kevin White. Nelson Agholar and Phillip Dorsett were drafted, while Jaelen Strong and Dorial Green-Beckham remain on the board.

·         Speaking of which, here are my top ten remaining players: Randy Gregory, Eric Kendricks, Dorial Green-Beckham, Jaelen Strong, Owa Odighizuwa, TJ Clemmings, Landon Collins, Jordan Phillips, Jalen Collins, Duke Johnson

·         One other player to watch is, unfortunately, La’el Collins. No one really knows what’s going on with him, which definitely does not bode well. There are rumors he could go undrafted, which I think is an absolute mistake. If he does end up facing charges, then any pick spent on him is likely a waste. But every year teams spend sixth and seventh round picks on players who never make their roster, players with significantly less upside than Collins. Even if no progress is made in the situation, I still think he’s absolutely worth a look in the fourth round.