The biggest mystery of the
post-draft process came to an end today as La’el Collins announced that he is
signing with the Dallas Cowboys. Most of you are probably already aware of the
details of his story, but for the rest of you, here’s everything that has happened.
Collins was one of the highest
touted offensive line prospects in this draft, and two weeks ago it looked like
he was a sure thing as a first round pick. But on April 24, Collins’s former
girlfriend was shot and killed in Louisiana,
a tragedy that couldn’t have come with worse timing. Collins left the draft
festivities to help speak the investigation in Louisiana, and for a few days no one knew
exactly what was going on. The police were very clear that he wasn’t a suspect,
but after Aaron Hernandez and Ray Rice, NFL teams are more cautious than ever
about off the field issues. The uncertainty around Collins was enough to knock
him out of the draft entirely, making him a free agent when the police cleared
him entirely yesterday.
Almost every team in the NFL was
connected to Collins in some way, but he ended up signing with the Cowboys
after his first visit. This is a major get for Dallas, an incredibly undervalued asset added
to their team at essentially no cost. It makes perfect sense why they pursued
him. The same cannot be said for Collins’s decision however, as Dallas may be the worst
place in the league for him to sign.
I was uncertain about Dallas heading into this
offseason, but they absolutely killed it in the draft. Byron Jones is a solid first
round pick, a talented young player at a position of need. Grabbing Randy
Gregory in the second round was one of the steals in the draft, and adding
Collins gives them basically three first round picks heading into next year.
The issues at running back are a bit concerning, and Philadelphia is still a wild card in the NFC
East. But right now I feel safe adding the Cowboys to the Seahawks and the
Packers among NFC teams you can just pencil into the playoffs.
It’s a great move for Dallas, not so much for
Collins. Technically he was a free agent, able to choose wherever he wanted to
sign, but it’s a bit more complicated than that. The rookie wage scale places
sharp restrictions on the amount that can be spent on an undrafted player, and
the three year $1.65 million deal that he received from Dallas was the same he would get anywhere.
This wasn’t a case of the Cowboys outbidding the competition. This was a case
of him deciding that Dallas
was the best place to go.
Admittedly I have no insight into
Collins’s mind, but it is difficult for me to see from this distance why he
would reach that conclusion. Dallas
is absolutely loaded along the offensive line. Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick,
and Zack Martin are All Pro players. Doug Free just signed a three year
extension at right tackle, and they aren’t just going to cast Ronald Leary
aside. Collins’s greatest strength is his versatility, his ability to play any
spot on the line, but in Dallas
there may not be a spot for him to play.
Financially this move doesn’t
make sense either. Collins’s fall in the draft probably cost him around seven
or eight million dollars, but it does offer one minor benefit. First round
picks are fixed into the wage scale for at least three years, and the team that
drafts them has the option to control their rights for five. Most first round
picks don’t sign their second contract until after their fourth season, the
contract where they finally make big time money. But because Collins was
undrafted, he’ll be able to renegotiate after his second season, giving him the
ability to sign a major money deal a couple years earlier than if he had been a
first round pick.
There are a couple problems with
this however. To sign a big money deal, Collins has to prove he is worth a big money
deal, and to do that he probably has to find his way onto the field. If he’s
stuck as a backup, the Cowboys won’t be in any hurry to give him more money. To
truly make the most of his next contract, Collins needs to demonstrate his
abilities as an immediate starter, preferably at left tackle. Barring injury
there is no way he starts at left tackle for the Cowboys, where Smith is locked
up conceivably through 2023.
Even if he does see playing time
with Dallas,
there is no guarantee the Cowboys will sign him to a long term deal. Their cap
situation has been brutal for years, and there is no reason to believe it’s
going to get better anytime soon. They won’t sign Collins after his second
year, and after his third year he won’t be truly free to leave. Instead he’ll
become a restricted free agent, giving Dallas
the right to match any contract offered to him by another team. It’s possible
that someone will offer him a huge deal to try to price him out of Dallas’s
range, but most teams tend to steer clear of restricted free agents altogether.
If Collins was really interested
in maximizing his earning potential, he should have gone somewhere with an
immediate need on the offensive line and long term cap flexibility. The teams
that jump most immediately to mind are Oakland, Tampa Bay, and
Jacksonville,
any of which would gladly give him a chance to compete for a starting spot at
left tackle.
These aren’t necessarily the most
desirable of destinations, but there are plenty of other options in the middle.
If he wanted to compete for a championship, New England
could use a starter at guard (though they might have been steering clear of
anyone with murder ties after the whole Hernandez thing.) Other teams like San Diego, Minnesota, Kansas City, Atlanta, and Indianapolis could give
him a chance to start right away, compete for a championship, and earn a long
term contract.
Of all the teams in the league, Dallas may be the one
that made the least sense for him to sign with. Perhaps he really liked what
they did with Zack Martin last year. Perhaps he thinks he’ll shine best if
surrounded by the best offensive line in the league. Perhaps he’s just a
Cowboys fan, jumping at the opportunity to live out a lifelong dream. I don’t
know his reasons, but from where I stand, it’s hard for me to understand why he
chose to become a Cowboy.
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