The Curious Case of La'el Collins

The biggest mystery of the post-draft process came to an end today as La’el Collins announced that he is signing with the Dallas Cowboys. Most of you are probably already aware of the details of his story, but for the rest of you, here’s everything that has happened.

Collins was one of the highest touted offensive line prospects in this draft, and two weeks ago it looked like he was a sure thing as a first round pick. But on April 24, Collins’s former girlfriend was shot and killed in Louisiana, a tragedy that couldn’t have come with worse timing. Collins left the draft festivities to help speak the investigation in Louisiana, and for a few days no one knew exactly what was going on. The police were very clear that he wasn’t a suspect, but after Aaron Hernandez and Ray Rice, NFL teams are more cautious than ever about off the field issues. The uncertainty around Collins was enough to knock him out of the draft entirely, making him a free agent when the police cleared him entirely yesterday.

Almost every team in the NFL was connected to Collins in some way, but he ended up signing with the Cowboys after his first visit. This is a major get for Dallas, an incredibly undervalued asset added to their team at essentially no cost. It makes perfect sense why they pursued him. The same cannot be said for Collins’s decision however, as Dallas may be the worst place in the league for him to sign.

I was uncertain about Dallas heading into this offseason, but they absolutely killed it in the draft. Byron Jones is a solid first round pick, a talented young player at a position of need. Grabbing Randy Gregory in the second round was one of the steals in the draft, and adding Collins gives them basically three first round picks heading into next year. The issues at running back are a bit concerning, and Philadelphia is still a wild card in the NFC East. But right now I feel safe adding the Cowboys to the Seahawks and the Packers among NFC teams you can just pencil into the playoffs.

It’s a great move for Dallas, not so much for Collins. Technically he was a free agent, able to choose wherever he wanted to sign, but it’s a bit more complicated than that. The rookie wage scale places sharp restrictions on the amount that can be spent on an undrafted player, and the three year $1.65 million deal that he received from Dallas was the same he would get anywhere. This wasn’t a case of the Cowboys outbidding the competition. This was a case of him deciding that Dallas was the best place to go.

Admittedly I have no insight into Collins’s mind, but it is difficult for me to see from this distance why he would reach that conclusion. Dallas is absolutely loaded along the offensive line. Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick, and Zack Martin are All Pro players. Doug Free just signed a three year extension at right tackle, and they aren’t just going to cast Ronald Leary aside. Collins’s greatest strength is his versatility, his ability to play any spot on the line, but in Dallas there may not be a spot for him to play.

Financially this move doesn’t make sense either. Collins’s fall in the draft probably cost him around seven or eight million dollars, but it does offer one minor benefit. First round picks are fixed into the wage scale for at least three years, and the team that drafts them has the option to control their rights for five. Most first round picks don’t sign their second contract until after their fourth season, the contract where they finally make big time money. But because Collins was undrafted, he’ll be able to renegotiate after his second season, giving him the ability to sign a major money deal a couple years earlier than if he had been a first round pick.

There are a couple problems with this however. To sign a big money deal, Collins has to prove he is worth a big money deal, and to do that he probably has to find his way onto the field. If he’s stuck as a backup, the Cowboys won’t be in any hurry to give him more money. To truly make the most of his next contract, Collins needs to demonstrate his abilities as an immediate starter, preferably at left tackle. Barring injury there is no way he starts at left tackle for the Cowboys, where Smith is locked up conceivably through 2023.

Even if he does see playing time with Dallas, there is no guarantee the Cowboys will sign him to a long term deal. Their cap situation has been brutal for years, and there is no reason to believe it’s going to get better anytime soon. They won’t sign Collins after his second year, and after his third year he won’t be truly free to leave. Instead he’ll become a restricted free agent, giving Dallas the right to match any contract offered to him by another team. It’s possible that someone will offer him a huge deal to try to price him out of Dallas’s range, but most teams tend to steer clear of restricted free agents altogether.

If Collins was really interested in maximizing his earning potential, he should have gone somewhere with an immediate need on the offensive line and long term cap flexibility. The teams that jump most immediately to mind are Oakland, Tampa Bay, and Jacksonville, any of which would gladly give him a chance to compete for a starting spot at left tackle.

These aren’t necessarily the most desirable of destinations, but there are plenty of other options in the middle. If he wanted to compete for a championship, New England could use a starter at guard (though they might have been steering clear of anyone with murder ties after the whole Hernandez thing.) Other teams like San Diego, Minnesota, Kansas City, Atlanta, and Indianapolis could give him a chance to start right away, compete for a championship, and earn a long term contract.

Of all the teams in the league, Dallas may be the one that made the least sense for him to sign with. Perhaps he really liked what they did with Zack Martin last year. Perhaps he thinks he’ll shine best if surrounded by the best offensive line in the league. Perhaps he’s just a Cowboys fan, jumping at the opportunity to live out a lifelong dream. I don’t know his reasons, but from where I stand, it’s hard for me to understand why he chose to become a Cowboy.