Wednesday, August 12, 2015

NFL Positional Rankings



Even though training camps have started, we are still stuck in that dreadful period of time known as the NFL offseason. It’s been half a year since the last meaningful NFL game was played, and as a nation we are desperate for any sort of football coverage. The natural result of this is a tidal wave of player rankings, tiresome debates produced by just about every media organization in existence.

I’ve never been a fan of ranking football players. The skills involved are so varied, making comparisons almost impossible to do. You end up sidetracked by arguments over positional value, schematic fit, and other variables that are impossible to directly observe.

Comparing within a position is another matter. I don’t have a problem saying who I think is the best wide receiver in the league, or who the best quarterback is. And these comparisons can give us a sense of how much better an individual player is than the rest at his position.

This is how I’ve constructed the rankings below. For each position (not including kickers, punters, or long snappers because no one cares) I’ve gone through and selected the player I believe is the best at their position, then listed those (in no particular order) on the tier directly below them. The order I’ve placed them in is based on how much separation I believe there is between the player I’ve selected and this second tier. The best of the best are at the very top, while the positions at the bottom are the ones where I truly struggled to figure out who was the best in the league.

Hybrid D-Lineman: JJ Watt
Runners Up: Muhammad Wilkerson, Fletcher Cox, Calais Campbell, Michael Bennett
This is a position that has emerged over the past few years in the NFL, and I’m really not sure how to handle it. These players play multiple positions along the defensive line, from interior tackles to edge rushers. They aren’t necessarily there to go after the passer, but they do that well. Their job isn’t to occupy blockers and clog up the run, but they can do that too. There are very few players in the NFL even capable of doing this at an average level, and I may have listed them all above.

The important thing is, JJ Watt is the best in the league at doing one of the hardest things in the league. It might actually be fair to say that he plays a different position from every other player in the league, given the way he collects sacks while also stuffing up the middle. Watt is the best non-quarterback player in the league, and the gap between him and all other defenders is almost laughable at this point.

Tight End: Rob Gronkowski
Runners Up: Jimmy Graham, Jason Witten, Greg Olsen, Julius Thomas
We are at a strange period in the history of NFL tight ends. Tony Gonzalez is gone. Antonio Gates is not what he used to be. Athletic freaks like Jared Cook and Lardarius Green have failed to develop. We’re left with a bunch of good options, and one superstar who dominates when healthy.

The closest player to challenging Gronkowski is Jimmy Graham, and I’m not sure what to make of him. He had a miserable season in 2014, and I think it may be a sign of things to come. He’s failed to develop his physical tools, and without Brees throwing to him it’s fair to wonder if he’ll ever reach the peaks he saw early in his career. Gronkowki just continues to chug along, and as long as he’s healthy there really isn’t much debate for best tight end in the league.

Safety: Earl Thomas
Runners Up: Harrison Smith, Eric Weddle, Antoine Bethea, Devin McCourtey
The safety position has undergone an interesting transition over the past decade. There is no longer any tangible distinction between a strong and a free safety. The growth of the passing game has forced teams to move both their safeties out of the box into coverage, and there is no longer a place in the NFL for a hard hitting safety who can’t keep up with receivers (except potentially as an undersized linebacker).

The prototypical safety now is someone who can sit in a single deep zone and cover the middle of the field, and no one does that as well as Thomas. His speed and his instincts give him tremendous range, making him the most crucial piece of Seattle’s defensive success over the past three seasons. He’s also physical enough that he could probably step in for any of the players on the lower tier, while none of them could cover ground the way he does. Right now every safety in the NFL is jostling for second place behind Thomas, and it will probably remain that was for quite some time.
  
Offensive Guard: Marshal Yanda
Runners Up: Josh Sitton, Evan Mathis, Kyle Long
Yanda had a down year (along with the entire Ravens offense) in 2013, but he came roaring back in 2014. He is the best run blocker in football, and he paved the way for a reshuffled offensive line to turn Justin Forsett into one of the most productive running backs in the league. He isn’t as good a pass blocker as someone like Sitton, and in the right scheme Mathis can be a better player. But no one can do what Yanda does as consistently as Yanda does it.

Center: Alex Mack
Runners Up: Travis Frederick, Maurkice Pouncey, John Sullivan, Max Unger
Mack is overpaid, and he’s coming off an injury, so it’s understandable that some people are skeptical of him right now. But he has been the best center in the league over the past three seasons, and the loss of him last year played a major role in Cleveland’s collapse down the stretch. Mack will likely be back to his normal self this year, playing almost well enough to justify his ridiculous contract. Cleveland doesn’t have a lot going for them on offense, but they can at least rely on their offensive line.

Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers
Runners Up: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck
The quarterback position has been discussed to death, so I’m not going to say much here. Rodgers is the best in the league, and he’s got a reasonable lead over the next cluster. I don’t think Manning is done, but I also don’t think he’ll ever reach Rodgers’s level again. Brady and Brees are in a similar boat, and while Roethlisberger is coming off his best season, he just isn’t as talented as the others. The one player that has a chance to close the gap is Luck. I still have a lot of questions about Luck’s game, his decision making and his inconsistency, but at his best he is one of the few quarterbacks in the league who can make plays to challenge Rodgers. At some point I think he will be in the conversation for the best quarterback in the league, but for now Rodgers still has a sizeable advantage.

Wide Receiver: Antonio Brown
Runners Up: Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson
People seem to have a weird reluctance to give Brown his due, largely because he doesn’t fit the physical profile of an elite wide receiver. He doesn’t have the size of any in the tier below him, or the strength, or the leaping ability. He doesn’t make spectacular leaping grabs, or break five tackles on the way to the endzone, or run away from coverage. All he does is produce.

2013-2014
Receptions
Yards
Touchdowns
Antonio Brown
239
3197
21
Dez Bryant
181
2553
29
Julio Jones
145
2173
8
AJ Green
167
2467
17
Calvin Johnson
155
2569
20
Jordy Nelson
183
2833
21

Brown has been the best receiver in the league for the past two seasons, and it’s not particularly close. He’s a model of consistency at a notoriously volatile position, and even though his physical tools don’t match up to other top receivers, he will continue to dominate thanks to his quickness and his spectacular route running ability.

Cornerback: Darrelle Revis
Runners Up: Richard Sherman, Patrick Peterson, Chris Harris, Desmond Trufant
Here it is, the position that’s been driven into the ground over the past three years. The others have cases to be made for being at the top of the position, but really this conversation comes down to two players. Revis and Sherman. Revis is the veteran technician, a superstar who just continues to perform at a high level even as he gets up there in years. Sherman is the young, boisterous challenger, the face of an elite defense who has proclaimed himself the best in the league. The narratives are overwhelming, to the point that I almost don’t want to address it.

In the end, I put Revis first for a simple reason: his scheme asks him to do more than Sherman’s. The Seahawks run a hybrid zone-man scheme that leaves Sherman with deep coverage, playing to his strengths while not asking him to keep up with quick moving receivers underneath. Revis plays strictly man, mirroring the opposing receiver in a way Sherman would struggle to do.

Linebacker: Luke Keuchly
Runners Up: Lavonte David, Bobby Wagner, Navarro Bowman, DeAndre Levy
With the retirement of Patrick Willis, the recurring injuries to Sean Lee, and the general movement of teams away from off the ball linebackers, this position has become one of the more barren in the league. Most linebackers are trained to stuff the run and struggle against the pass, and these days they often play fewer snaps than a third cornerback. The top linebackers are the ones who can stay on the field for all three downs, who can cover the pass as well as they stop the run.

I think Keuchly is a bit overrated, but he is still the best at this weak position. Players like David and Levy (and his own teammate Thomas Davis) are better in coverage, and both Wagner and Bowman are better against the run. But Keuchly excels by doing everything at an extremely high level. There are no weaknesses in his game, and even though I don’t think he’ll ever again reach the heights of his Defensive Player of the Year second season, he’ll be a top notch inside linebacker for the rest of his career.

Offensive Tackle: Joe Thomas
Runners Up: Tyron Smith, Jason Peters, Andrew Whitworth
Thomas probably wasn’t the best offensive tackle in the league last season, or even the season before that. At their peaks Smith, Peters, and Whitworth all dominate in a way Thomas doesn't. But offensive tackle is a position that demands consistency, and no one has been more consistent than Thomas. He’s been named to the Pro Bowl every year he’s been in the league, and he’s been an All Pro every season but his first. Because he plays in Cleveland and plays on the line, most people seem to ignore him. But looking at his résumé, it’s hard not to start to wonder if he may be putting himself in the conversation for the greatest to ever play the position.

Edge Rusher: Von Miller
Runners Up: Justin Houston, Robert Quinn, Elvis Dumervil, Clay Matthews
These players live in the shadow of JJ Watt, but for today I’m going to allow them a chance to be in their own category. They play exclusively on the edge, and their primary responsibility is to rush the passer. Houston quietly had one of the greatest pass rushing seasons of all time last year, racking up 22 sacks while being overshadowed by Watt’s inhuman dominance. I strongly considered putting him at the top of this category, but he lost a narrow race to his AFC West rival.

Miller has kind of gotten lost in the shuffle over the past few years. He was the first defensive player taken in the incredible 2011 draft class, and he went on to win a deserved Defensive Rookie of the Year. After that, though, things kind of fell apart. He was suspended for a failed drug test, and then he suffered a torn ACL. He’s been overshadowed both by his draftmate Watt and his teammate Peyton Manning. And through it all, he has simply been one of the best players in the league against the run and the pass. At this point it might actually be fair to call him underrated, since he’s probably the second best defensive player in the league.

Defensive Tackle: Ndamukong Suh
Runners Up: Gerald McCoy, Aaron Donald, Marcell Dareus
Suh wins almost by default. McCoy is better when he’s healthy, but he has too many injury problems. Donald was better last year, and I think he’ll probably pass him soon. But for now I have to rank Suh as the best defensive tackle in the league. He’s been a great player since he was drafted, a force against both the run and the pass, and he is probably worth every penny the Dolphins paid him this offseason. Suh has been the consensus best defensive tackle since he came into the league, but it is a lot closer than most people realize, and his run may be coming to an end.

Running Back: Adrian Peterson
Runners Up: Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Marshawn Lynch, LeVeon Bell, DeMarco Murray
Running back is weird and hard to handle. The two best runners in the league last year were Bell and Murray, but I have a hard time ranking either of them first based on one productive year. Charles has been steady for a while, but he’s never produced at the same volume as some of the others. McCoy seems to disappoint every other year, and while Lynch is consistent, I don’t think he has ever been the best back in the league.

Call me a homer, but I made a close decision to go with Peterson. He barely played last year for off the field reasons, and he’s nearing the point where most running backs break down. But he’s been the best running back in the league since he was drafted, and until we see clear evidence that his performance falling off, I’m going to stick to my guns. But I’d have no problem with anyone calling any of these other backs the best in the league, which is why this position finds itself at the bottom of the list.

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