2015 NFL Preview: East

It’s a couple days later than I originally intended, but I guess I’d better get started with my NFL season preview. I’m going to start by going team by team to get a brief look at where they’re at and where I think they’re going. Any specific predictions are a bit absurd, but it is possible to see a range of possibilities for teams, from a best case scenario to a worst case scenario. So for each of the teams I’m going to list a “Half Full” prediction and a “Half Empty” prediction. For each team I’ve also listed a player to watch, someone under the radar who could play a major role in their fortune this season.

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys

Half Full:

Dallas’s offense carried them to a surprising 12-4 record last season, and they won’t miss any beats this year. Their running game was built around the success of their offensive line, and even with DeMarco Murray gone they can keep things rolling. Rookies Randy Gregory and Byron Jones give them the boost they need on the defensive side of the ball, and they run away with the division and put themselves in Super Bowl contention.

Half Empty:

The Cowboys are precariously top heavy, and this will come back to hurt them this year. Tony Romo has struggled to stay healthy for years now, and if he goes down again this year they will not be able to put the entire burden of their offense on the running game, not with Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden as their primary options. They’ve added young talent on their defense, but young talent doesn’t always lead to results. There’s enough talent on this team that they won’t completely fall apart, but they could find themselves on the outside of the playoffs at the season’s end.

Player to Watch: Joseph Randle, RB

The bigger name running back on the Cowboys is former top five pick McFadden, but based on everything they’ve done in the NFL (and McFadden’s injury history) I expect Randle will end up being their primary runner. He averaged 6.7 yards per carry in limited time last year, and he’ll be put in a great position to succeed behind the best run blocking offensive line in the NFL. As good as Romo and Bryant are, they can’t shoulder the burden of an entire offense. Dallas succeeded last year because of their balance on offense, and Randle is their best hope of finding that again this season.

Philadelphia Eagles

Half Full:

Chip Kelly has had success as a coach on every level, and at this point it’s hard not to give him the benefit of the doubt. He’s reshaped his receiving corps with young talent like Jordan Matthews and Nelson Agholor, players who fit his style much more than Jeremy Maclin or DeSean Jackson. The true overhaul has come on defense, where offseason pickups Byron Maxwell and Kiko Alonso join stellar young players like Mychal Kendricks and Fletcher Cox to give the Eagles the best defense in the division, enough to carry them into the playoffs.

Half Empty:

No team has had more turnover this season than the Eagles, and at a number of positions they clearly downgraded. DeMarco Murray isn’t as good as LeSean McCoy. The loss of Evan Mathis will hurt an offensive line that struggled with consistency last year. And worst of all, their quarterback situation is completely unresolved, with two options who have both been at best average during their careers. Philadelphia’s offseason rebuild could prove to be a complete disaster, landing them in the top five picks in the draft for the second time in three years.

Player to Watch: Jordan Matthews, WR

Chip Kelly fell in love with Matthews prior to the 2014 Draft, even wanting to reach to take him in the first round. Instead he fell to them in the second, and he had a solid rookie season overshadowed by the performances of other rookie receivers. He spent most of last year playing in the slot, but at 6’3” and 205 pounds, he doesn’t fit the traditional profile of a slot receiver. With Jeremy Maclin gone to Kansas City, it would make sense to give Matthews more reps on the outside. But Kelly is far from a traditional coach, and it will be fascinating to see how he utilizes Matthews.

New York Giants

Half Full:

The Giants offense could be very good. With Victor Cruz coming back to join Odell Beckham, they finally have the potential to give Eli Manning an elite receiving corps. Their running backs and offensive line will hold them back from being a top five offense in the league, but they can do enough damage in the air to make up for the holes elsewhere in their roster, enough to snag a Wild Card or possibly even the division.

Half Empty:

Beckham was great during his rookie year, but he wasn’t enough to carry them to the playoffs, and this team has made very few changes during the offseason. Their offensive line is still struggling with injuries, and there is no guarantee that Cruz will be back to his normal self. On the defensive side of the ball they have only two or three high quality players, perhaps even fewer if Jason Pierre-Paul’s offseason injury causes serious problems. This team won’t bottom out entirely, but they could be on the way to another noncompetitive season.

Player to Watch: Johnathan Hankins, DT

A second round pick in 2013, Hankins has quietly been one of the best players to come out of his class. The mediocrity around him prevents many from seeing how good he is, but last season he was arguably among the top ten defensive tackles in the league. If Jason Pierre-Paul can recover from what happened to him this offseason, the Giants can start on the road back to what they had a few years ago, a dominant defensive line that allowed them to shield their vulnerabilities on the back end.

Washington Redskins

Half Full:

I may be among the minority in this, but I’m not ready to give up on Robert Griffin III. He was too good his rookie year to be a complete bust, and he’s in the best position to succeed he’s ever been in. He has a pair of talented receivers in DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, one of the most underrated running backs in the league in Alfred Morris, and an offensive line that will be healthy after struggling last season. Griffin is the key to their offense, and if he can reach his previous highs, he can lift this team into the fringe of playoff contention.

Half Empty:

Washington’s ceiling isn’t particularly high, but their floor is as low as it can possibly get. Griffin has regressed significantly since his rookie year, and they didn’t make any significant improvements on either side of the ball. First round pick Brandon Scherff will struggle playing guard for the first time in his life, and their defense is still devoid of talent everywhere outside of Ryan Kerrigan. This team sacrificed a huge number of draft picks to get Griffin, and if he doesn’t work out, they’re probably stuck rebuilding for another three seasons.

Player to Watch: Jordan Reed, TE

There isn’t a lot to like on this roster. I originally wrote about Niles Paul, but he has since gone down with a season ending injury. So I’ll instead focus on his backup, the talented but unreliable Reed. Jackson and Garcon can stretch the field deep, but the Redskins are in need of someone to open up the passing game between the numbers, a role they will lean on their tight ends for. Griffin can’t always rely on his legs when pressure comes his way, and he will need a weapon like Reed to take the pressure off of him.

AFC EAST

New England Patriots

Half Full:

They are the defending Super Bowl champions, so their upside is pretty clear. Bill Belichick has shown consistent ability to take whatever talent he has into the postseason, and if Tom Brady ends up being available for all sixteen games, they should have no problem winning the division once again. Their front seven on defense is filled with scary young talent like Chandler Jones, Donta Hightower, and Jamie Collins, more than enough to make up for their losses on the back end. New England is in a great position to defend their title, and it is hard to envision them not winning their division.

Half Empty:

The Brady situation is not yet resolved, but if he misses the first four games, the team is facing a very serious problem. Their receiving corps is mediocre at best, and their passing game depends entirely on Brady’s icy precision. Without him they will struggle to move the ball and could get off to a very poor start. On the defensive side of the ball they are facing massive changes in scheme and personnel, losing their dominant secondary from last season and replacing them with essentially no one. Jones and free agent signee Jabaal Sheard are good pass rushers, but neither has shown the sort of consistent dominance needed on a defense with no back end. New England is good enough that they should make the playoffs no matter what, but it could be a fight to the end of the season.

Player to Watch: Jabaal Sheard, DE

I wrote about Sheard as my player to watch in Cleveland last year, and he failed to live up to expectations. But I’m going to keep riding this bandwagon until I’m the only one left. In Cleveland Sheard was a phenomenally talented pass rusher stuck in a scheme that didn’t fit his skills. That won’t be the case in New England, where Bill Belichick has shown consistent willingness to cater his scheme to the players he has. With Sheard and Chandler Jones coming off the edges, the Patriots pass rush will take pressure off of their vulnerable secondary.

Miami Dolphins

Half Full:

The offseason activity certainly makes this team fun to look at on paper. Adding Ndamukong Suh puts them in contention for the best defensive line in the league (though they still may be third best in this division), and their retooled receiving corps gives Ryan Tannehill weapons to work with as he enters his long term deal. Their running game came together as the year went along, and with a few more breaks going their way, they can put together enough wins to possibly steal the division.

Half Empty:

Okay, can anyone remember the last time a bunch of high profile offseason moves actually worked out? Reality isn’t as grim as common perception, but more often than not teams like the Dolphins fail to live up to expectations. They still haven’t fixed their offensive line or their secondary, and I am far from confident in Tannehill. The weapons he has are intriguing but unproven, and if he can’t get them the ball, the Dolphins could fall to pieces very quickly.

Player to Watch: Kenny Stills, WR

And here we come to the issue of getting them the ball. Stills has been one of the best deep targets in the league over the past two years, connecting at an almost ungodly success rate with Drew Brees in New Orleans. But Mike Wallace was also one of the best deep receivers before he got to Miami, and Stills is not as well rounded as a receiver as Wallace was. Tannehill is quietly terrible at throwing the ball deep, missing Wallace open deep on a regular basis last season. The Stills-Tannehill connection could open up their offense, but it could also doom them to the same mediocrity they faced last year.

Buffalo Bills

Half Full:

Buffalo certainly had an eventful offseason, adding more weapons to their offense than any other team in the league. Big additions like LeSean McCoy and Percy Harvin will add to the growth of talented young receivers like Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins to give them real firepower on offense for the first time in a while. They retained Jerry Hughes in free agency to keep their dangerous pass rush intact, and with Rex Ryan their defense can take the next step to carry this team into the playoffs for the first time since 1999.

Half Empty:

The quarterback situation will absolutely kill them. Even if everything else goes right, even if their defense stays dominant, McCoy revitalizes their running game, and Harvin turns into the player he once was, they still have the worst quarterback situation of anyone in the league. The idea that the three quarterbacks on their roster will combine to start sixteen games this year is laughable. Buffalo made some strides last year, but with their mess under center, they will regress into the same mediocrity they’ve seen every year for the past decade.

Player to Watch: Percy Harvin, WR

What the hell is Percy Harvin? Does anyone know at this point? In 2012 he was maybe the most dynamic player in the league before suffering a season ending injury. In 2013 he played only one game in the regular season due to injury, but he made several spectacular plays to help Seattle to the Super Bowl title. Last year was an utter disaster, leading him to sign this cheap, short term deal in Buffalo. The talent is still there, but so far he and his coaches have struggled to make use of it. If Buffalo has any hope of fielding a functioning offense, it’s going to need the creative, spectacular Harvin that we’ve only seen brief flashes of.

New York Jets

Half Full:

The quarterback situation will be a problem in all circumstances, but simple competence might be enough to claw them towards the playoffs. Their defensive line is stacked with talent like few others in the league (even with the possible loss of Sheldon Richardson), and their three free agent signings at cornerback give them possibly the deepest group in the NFL. On offense they have a pair of imposing weapons on the outside that should make life easier for their quarterback. Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t the most reliable option, but he can do enough with the Jets to earn them a Wild Card berth.

Half Empty:

Everything needs to go right for the Jets to succeed, which is usually a bad sign for a team as dysfunctional as they are. They’ve already lost Geno Smith and possibly Richardson. Antonio Cromartie isn’t the most reliable cornerback, and Brandon Marshall showed signs of slowing down last season. Their running back group is still made up of players who are best used in a backup role, and if they can’t get a consistent running game established, they will have no hope of even sniffing the playoffs.

Player to Watch: Quinton Coples, DE/OLB

Coples is surprisingly off the radar for a former first round pick. Through three seasons he’s been a disappointment, a pass rusher who has collected only 16.5 career sacks. He struggled through Rex Ryan’s scheme for years, never quite finding a place where he fit in. He’s too big to play at linebacker as he has, too small to play as a lineman on the interior like the Jets like to use. He is a man without a position, which is why Todd Bowles is the perfect coach for him. Bowles excelled in Arizona with a defense made up of unusual talents, finding ways to utilize unique players like Deone Buchanon, Tyrann Mathieu, and Calais Campbell. Coples is right on the edge of being declared a bust, but if anyone can harness his potential, it would be Bowles.