2015 NFL Preview: South

AFC SOUTH 

Indianapolis Colts

Half Full:

Indianapolis has improved every year since adding Andrew Luck, and this year they take the final step. Luck has one of the most dangerous groups of weapons in the league, with star receivers TY Hilton and Andre Johnson bolstered by intriguing rookies Phillip Dorsett and Duron Carter. And with the return of Robert Mathis, they will have a pass rush element to their defense that was missing last year. This team made it to the AFC Championship Game, and they only improved over the offseason. With uncertainties dotting the rest of the AFC, they deserve to be considered a Super Bowl favorite.

Half Empty:

Indianapolis’s offense is flashy, but the real reason they’ve fallen short the past few years is their defense, a side of the ball they did very little to improve. They have a couple of good players in Mathis and Vontae Davis, but the rest of this side of the ball varies from mediocre to terrible. Ben Roethlisberger torched them for 522 yards and 6 TDs last year. The Patriots run all over them whenever they get a chance. Andrew Luck is very good, but this defense will continue to hold them back from taking the next step once they reach the playoffs.

Player To Watch: Duron Carter, WR

The first time I heard of Carter was when he committed to play at Ohio State in 2009. Since then he’s spent time with Coffeyville Community College, Alabama, Florida Atlantic, the Minnesota Vikings (training camp only), and the Montreal Alouettes. He hasn’t managed to stay in one place long, but the problem has never been talent. People keep giving him new chances because of his talent, and if he finally has his head on straight, he could turn into a starting caliber NFL receiver. Of course, there’s still a chance he could end up being cut before the season. With a player like Carter, anything is possible.

Houston Texans

Half Full:

Houston has arguably the best player in the league in JJ Watt, and this year they may have finally surrounded him with capable talent. Vince Wilfork is still capable of contributing despite his advanced age, and if Jadeveon Clowney is healthy, he can be a dynamic pass rusher from the opposite side. Add that to a developing star on offense in DeAndre Hopkins and a solid core of overall talent, and this is a team that can push for the playoffs, and possibly even the division.

Half Empty:

Watt is great, but we saw two years ago that he isn’t enough to carry a team to a successful season on his own. With Arian Foster out indefinitely, their offense looks close to barren. They’ve lost Andre Johnson, they have no reliable option at quarterback, and even with Hopkins this could turn out to be one of the worst offenses in the NFL. It probably won’t be that bad, but even so I could see this team struggling to score points and possibly ending up with a top ten draft pick.

Player To Watch: Rahim Moore, S

The Texans are a team built on the back of JJ Watt, and there aren’t a lot of good players flying under the radar. Duane Brown and Arian Foster have been borderline stars for years. DeAndre Hopkins is following the track you’d expect from a first round pick. Jadeveon Clowney is or isn’t something, and everyone is watching to figure this out. To find a player truly worth attention, I have to go for their free agent signing from the Broncos. Moore is still stung by his failure to knock Joe Flacco’s heave out of the sky three years ago, and this one play has colored the development of an otherwise stellar young player. In Denver he was buried behind a team of veteran stars, but in Houston he finally has a chance to emerge as a foundational piece for a defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Half Full:

Jacksonville has loaded up on young talent over the past few drafts, and this looks like a year they could all break out. Blake Bortles struggled through a lot of last year, but he also showed intriguing flashes as both a passer and a rusher. Surrounded by developing young receivers like Allen Hurns, Marqise Lee, and Allen Robinson, he has a chance to lead a true breakout on offense. They are still relying on a lot of young players, and they aren’t in a position to make the playoffs this year. But a .500 record isn’t out of the question, and this could be the season that finally begins to pull them out of their tailspin.

Half Empty:

Young talent is just talent until it actually does something, and so far, very few players on the Jaguars roster have actually done anything. Their offensive line is still a disaster, Bortles needs to make massive improvements in mechanics and decision making, and their defense will struggle to improve after losing first round pick Dante Fowler. There are reasons to be hopeful here, but not for 2015, another season that will see them finish with a top five draft pick.

Player To Watch: Allen Robinson, WR

The Jaguars have a lot of intriguing young receivers, but none have done as much to impress as Robinson. A big, physical target who dominated at Penn State, he had a strong rookie season that was completely ignored due to the performance of the other rookie receivers in the league, the general incompetence of the Jaguars, and an injury that sidelined him down the stretch. But he played well enough to establish himself as the leading candidate for the number one receiver slot, and if he can take another step he can make life a lot easier for their developing quarterback.

Tennessee Titans

Half Full:

Tennessee has intriguing pieces on defense, and this year they are finally in position to put it together. It seems like every year around this time we expect Derrick Morgan to break out, but this year will be different, thanks to the presence of Brian Orakpo on the other side. The two of them will combine with Jurrell Casey to make up one of the league’s most dangerous fronts. A massive defensive improvement is well within the realm of possibility, and if their offense can pull together around Marcus Mariota, this team can push for a playoff spot.

Half Empty:

That final piece is the big question. Mariota is talented, and I expect him to find success long term, but his transition to the NFL may not go smoothly. A great deal depends on how Ken Whisenhunt will utilize him, not necessarily the most promising of circumstances. Whisenhunt can be a bit stubborn when it comes to his scheme, and I can see him trying to force Mariota into a rigid, pocket passing system, leading to a disaster of a rookie season and a total collapse of the team.

Player To Watch: Bishop Sankey, RB

Reports out of Tennessee suggest that Sankey has fallen out of favor and could quickly lose most of his carries to rookie David Cobb. This isn’t surprising considering his struggles last season, but I still think there’s reason to be hopeful about this second year player. Sankey was mismanaged during his rookie season, forced into an offense that didn’t fit his talents behind a line that gave him no help. Sankey isn’t a feature back, but he can be very useful when given the ball in space, an opportunity he could see plenty if Wisenhunt is clever enough to use Mariota in a read option scheme. Under these conditions Sankey is the perfect complement to the rookie quarterback, and he could very easily have a surprise breakout campaign.

NFC SOUTH

Carolina Panthers

Half Full:

Carolina has made the playoffs the past two years thanks to a young core that will only continue to improve. Cam Newton’s abilities on the ground and in the air make him one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league, and they only need him to make an occasional play to support a loaded defense. With Luke Keuchly, Kawaan Short, and Star Lotulelei holding down the middle of the field, athletes like Thomas Davis will be free to fly to the ball, creating a unit explosive enough to carry them into the postseason again.

Half Empty:

Carolina’s biggest weaknesses the past two years have been offensive line and wide receiver, and they didn’t really address either in the draft. Newton is phenomenally talented, but he can’t carry the team while standing behind Byron Bell and throwing to Ted Ginn. Kelvin Benjamin is a bit overrated as a player, but you can’t overstate his importance to this team. They were mediocre last year who made the playoffs thanks to a wretched division. They won’t be as lucky this year and could easily wind up with a top ten pick.

Player To Watch: Shaq Thompson, LB

I’m trying to stay away from talking any more about first round picks, but Thompson is just too interesting to ignore. He is a relatively unique player, either an undersized linebacker with great coverage instincts or an oversized safety who will dominate against the run. If he gets on the field for Carolina, it will be very intriguing to see how they use him, considering they already have two of the best coverage linebackers in the league in Keuchly and Davis. Thompson is raw, but if he can figure things out, he can be a devastating addition to an already top notch defense.

New Orleans Saints

Half Full:

Last season was a disaster for the Saints, one I certainly didn’t see coming. But their failure doesn’t change the fact that this is an incredibly talented team who can easily run away with a weak division. Drew Brees is still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, Safeties Kenny Vaccaro and Jairus Byrd are due to bounce back after a disappointing first season together, and they are finally in position to have a quality running game to support their offense. This team wasn’t as bad as they looked last year, and they don’t have to improve much to make the playoffs again.

Half Empty:

New Orleans spent their offseason with a series of moves that screamed desperation and a need to rebuild. They traded away Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills. They drafted players who offer more down the road than as immediate contributors. This is a team going through a great deal of turnover, and that instability hardly inspires confidence. Their defense is an uncertainty as always, but for the first time in a while we don’t know what to expect from their offense. A total collapse is not out of the question.

Player To Watch: CJ Spiller, RB

A former top ten pick who has become a mostly anonymous NFL player, Spiller has the potential to become a truly invaluable part of this roster. He had his moments in Buffalo, but they could never figure out how to use his unique skillset. In New Orleans he finally has a coach creative enough to put him in a position to succeed and a quarterback who understands how to use a running back in the passing game. He isn’t as shifty as Reggie Bush or Darren Sproles, but he can find a way to fill that role in this offense.

Atlanta Falcons

Half Full:

The Falcons have been loaded on star power for several years, but they’ve fallen short because the back end of their roster hasn’t been up to NFL standards. For the past couple years they’ve struggled to improve their depth, and they may have finally built a quality structure around stars like Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. Players like Adrian Clayborn and Jon Asamoah won’t carry a team, but they can be crucial pieces to help others do so. They don’t have enough for a deep run, but in a division as weak as the NFC South, they could easily run away with the title.

Half Empty:

Atlanta has worked hard to improve the depth of their team, but they still haven’t done enough. Bringing in low priced veterans can lead to great bargains, but it can also load up a roster with a bunch of unwanted disappointments, like former first rounders Clayborn and Tyson Jackson who never lived up to expectations in their old homes. The Falcons are betting that they can get more from these players than their original teams, but if these players remain who we think they are—borderline starters forced into primary roles—Atlanta will bear a great deal of resemblance to the disappointing team they’ve been over the past two seasons.

Player To Watch: Jon Asamoah, G

Asamoah quietly played a major role in Kansas City’s playoff appearance two years ago, stabilizing an offensive line that had been in flux for years. He was expected to do the same thing when he signed with the Falcons, but injuries robbed him of any hope for a successful first year in Atlanta. Fortunately, he is fully healthy going into his second year with the team, and their need for him is as critical as ever. His presence could give them the boost they need to turn this from a good offense into one of the top five in the league.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Half Full:

Even the worst teams have pieces to like, but the pieces on Tampa Bay are up there with any in the league. Gerald McCoy is the best defensive tackle in the league when he’s healthy. Lavonte David is somehow still underrated. Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson form a dangerous duo of towers on the outside. With these kind of pieces, the only thing they were missing was a star quarterback, and they may have found it in Jameis Winston. Winston is a football genius with an arm to match his mind, and he has the potential to burst onto the scene in the NFL much as he did in college. In a division as weak as this one, he could be enough to lead the Buccaneers to the playoffs.

Half Empty:

Stars are great, but they need some capable talent around them, and there is no evidence that Tampa Bay has these quality players to fill out their roster. Their defense has been terrible for years despite the presence of McCoy and David. Jackson and Evans are clearly below the top tier of receivers. And Winston is a quarterback prone to mistakes, the sort of mistakes that could lead to a poor start to the season and another year drafting in the top ten for Tampa Bay.

Player To Watch: Alterraun Verner, CB

Verner was a big time free agent acquisition a year ago, but after a disappointing season he’s been mostly forgotten about. Many are willing to dismiss his stellar 2013 season as a fluke, but the talent he showed was too much to be just a flash in the pan. His skills are perfect in Lovey Smith’s (possibly outdated) defensive scheme, and he can be the piece on the back end to complement their two superstars in the front seven.