2015 NFL Preview: West

NFC WEST

Seattle Seahawks

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Seattle came within a single play of winning the Super Bowl, so it shouldn’t be surprising that their ceiling is a championship. Along with Green Bay they are the closest to a sure thing in a wide open NFC, and they can pull ahead of the rest of the competition if their offense can take a step forward. They have the most dangerous running game in the league, a quarterback who excels at taking shots down the field, and a weapon who can work the defense underneath in Jimmy Graham. And of course, their defense is their defense. Seattle will win the division with ease, and they will put themselves in great position to win another title at the end of the playoffs.

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Seattle’s meteoric rise was incredible, but things are bound to crash to earth sooner or later. They built their roster on players acquired in the deeper portions of the draft, fifth rounders like Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman giving them incredible value for the duration of their rookie contracts. But now those players have gotten expensive, forcing them to part ways with solid veterans like Tony McDaniel and Max Unger. And they haven’t done nearly as good a job at drafting over the past few years, leaving them with a team becoming dangerously top heavy. They are still the class of their division and possibly the NFC, but this has the look of the first step in Seattle’s decline.

Player To Watch: Cary Williams, CB

Over the past few years Seattle has become known as the place in the NFL to develop cornerbacks. Richard Sherman is obviously Richard Sherman. Brandon Browner was replaced by Walter Thurmond who was replaced by Byron Maxwell, all without missing a beat. But these three are now gone, and rather than trying to install another homegrown talent, Seattle went after the veteran Williams in free agency. Williams was a trainwreck in Philadelphia last year, but he fits the physical profile of a Seahawks cornerback, and with the success Pete Carroll has had developing defensive backs throughout his career, it’s not impossible to imagine him getting a Pro Bowl caliber season out of their free agent signing.

Arizona Cardinals

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Arizona was a playoff team last year, and they had aspirations of being much more until they suffered a pair of catastrophic injuries at the quarterback position, forcing them to start Ryan Lindley for their playoff game. Carson Palmer is in the middle of the pack among league quarterbacks, but he is far above Lindley, and his return will give the offense the spark they need to take the next step. Adding Mike Iupati and first round pick DJ Humphries finally gives them a quality offensive line, opening up holes in the running game and keeping Palmer intact throughout the season, long enough for them to earn another Wild Card berth and potentially challenge Seattle for the division.

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Their quarterback situation was miserable, but in every other sense the Cardinals were extremely lucky in 2014. They repeatedly pulled out games they had no real business winning, a tightrope walk they won’t be able to repeat this year. Their defense will take a step back with the departure of defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, and their weak pass rush will be exposed as they are no longer able to scheme clever ways to get to the quarterback. With questionable weapons on offense, a defense due for a slide, and a quarterback who has shown no ability to stay consistently healthy, the Cardinals could be in for one of the most disappointing years of any team in the league.

Player To Watch: Tony Jefferson, S

It’s no secret that the secondary is the strength of the Cardinals roster. They built a top ten defense despite the absence of a top pass rusher—almost an impossibility in the modern NFL—because they were able to trust their secondary to lock down on the back end enough to send massive blitzes on nearly every play. Everybody knows about Patrick Peterson, everybody knows about Tyrann Mathieu, and most are aware of their first round pick from last year Deone Bucannon. But few are aware of Tony Jefferson, arguably the best player of the bunch last year. His ceiling is limited somewhat, and he will probably never be in the same conversation with players like Earl Thomas, Eric Weddle, or Harrison Smith. But he is as reliable as they come on the back end, solid against both the run and the pass and a crucial piece of Arizona’s surprising success last year.

San Francisco 49ers

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The environment in San Francisco was absolutely toxic last year, ruining what was otherwise a very talented team. They’ve suffered some losses on defense, but there offense has the potential for a revitalization with the addition of Torrey Smith and the growth of Carlos Hyde. Colin Kaepernick struggled when asked to do too much on his own, but this year he is once again surrounded by talent that will allow him to harness his potential. There are still plenty of questionmarks, but they can get those resolved as the season goes along, starting slow and making a late push for the playoffs.

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Honestly, has any team ever had an offseason as devastating as San Francisco’s? They let go of a coach everyone agreed was fantastic. They lost the face of their franchise to an unexpected retirement, followed by more unexpected retirements from their starting right tackle and a linebacker coming off a promising rookie season. This team bears almost no resemblance to the one that made the Super Bowl three years ago, and it’s hard to be optimistic about much that they have going on. They’ve lost stars, and they’ve lost depth. And any playoff hopes are relying more on faith than logic at this point.

Player To Watch: Aaron Lynch, LB

A year ago Lynch was a rare bright spot in a miserable 49ers season. A rookie fifth round pick out of South Florida, he took advantage of the absence of Aldon Smith to claim a starting role and finished the season with six sacks. At the time it seemed like just another example of San Francisco’s insane depth at linebacker, but with the offseason losses Lynch has become one of the most crucial pieces on their defense. He is capable of expanding on his rookie year performance and turning into a high quality NFL pass rusher, but the sudden reliance of the defense on him is yet another sign of how grim things have become in San Francisco.

St Louis Rams

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I’ve been very critical of Jeff Fisher. I’ve pointed out repeatedly that he specializes in mediocrity, not winning enough games to get his team anywhere while not losing enough to get himself fired. I seriously considered listing the exact same circumstances for both best and worst cases for this team, finishing with between six and eight wins once again. But I will admit, I can see a slight scenario in which St Louis finally takes the leap this year. Their defensive front is even more terrifying than it was coming into last year, and they have several very intriguing pieces on the back end, notably TJ McDonald and Alec Ogletree. If this defense plays up to its potential, it can be a top five unit in the league, enough to drag the Rams into the wide open race for the NFC Wild Card.

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Of course, it’s much more likely that they’ll be the same old Rams. Nick Foles is a different style of mediocre from Sam Bradford, but he’ll cost them just as much with his repeated mistakes as Bradford did with his terror of the deep ball. Their offensive line is a work in progress, and they still haven’t developed an NFL caliber receiver. Some pieces have moved around, but in most ways this is the same Rams team we’ve seen over the past several seasons, and they will wind up with the same fate.

Player To Watch: Brian Quick, WR

The Rams are notorious for their failure to develop wide receivers, but there’s a chance we may have jumped the gun on dismissing Quick. A second round pick out of Appalachian State in 2012, Quick was always going to be a developmental project. And early last season, he showed signs that he was beginning to develop. Through the first four games he had 21 catches for 322 yards and three touchdowns, before his performance dipped and an injury cost him the final nine games. He’s back healthy now, and if the Rams are going to have any success on offense this year, they’re going to need Quick or a player like him to finally take the next step.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos

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The Broncos still have Peyton Manning, and now that he’s had an offseason to get healthy, he should be back to his old self. They were the best team in the AFC for most of last season, faltering at the end only due to Manning’s injuries, and they return most of the crucial pieces of their team. Their defense is still loaded with stars, and though their offense has suffered some losses, they should find more success in the running game thanks to the arrival of new coach Gary Kubiak. Denver will coast to a division title and will be one of the favorites for the Super Bowl once the playoffs start.

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It seems strange to say this, but for the first time in Manning’s career I feel more confident in his team’s defense than in their offense. Denver’s defense is loaded with enough talent that it will be a top ten unit in the league no matter what, but I’m not sure I can say the same about the offense. Their line is in shambles after trading Manny Ramirez and losing Ryan Clady to injury (though the addition of Evan Mathis is a huge help). I’m not on the CJ Anderson bandwagon, and even with Kubiak I think they will struggle to consistently run the ball. And their offensive weapons are far thinner than they were just two years ago, without Wes Welker or Julius Thomas to find gaps in the middle of the field. The division could prove to be a lot tighter than we expect, and even though I think the Broncos will still make the playoffs, a Super Bowl run may be too much to hope for.

Player To Watch: Chris Harris, CB

It’s insane that I need to do this, but I guess I have to. Somehow, Harris is still among the most underrated players in the league. Part of it is that he was undrafted. Part of it is being on a team with so much other star talent. But at a certain point the average fan needs to become aware of Harris, one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. He is as versatile as they come, shutting down wide receivers on the edge and in the slot. He can match quick guys cut for cut and can challenge bigger receivers physically at the point of the catch. He is a major part of why Denver’s defense will be successful this year, even though he’s less well known than teammates like Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, and Aqib Talib.

Kansas City Chiefs

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There is a lot to like just looking at Kansas City’s roster on paper. They have one of the best running backs in the league in Jamaal Charles, and they just added a Pro Bowl wide receiver in Jeremy Maclin. Their defense is loaded with stars, especially if Eric Berry can return at anything near full strength. And though Alex Smith has his limitations, he’s shown that he can take a team with a strong running game and an elite defense deep into the playoffs. There is a definite ceiling for the Chiefs, but if the Broncos falter they will be in position to push for the division title.

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The big names on Kansas City look good, but the rest of their roster leaves a great deal to be desired. They have no depth at receiver behind Maclin. Their defense has underachieved for the past two years because of the inconsistency of their role players. And they have what is quite possibly the worst offensive line in the league, offering no protection for Smith and only sporadic rushing lanes for Charles. Eric Fisher is in a make or break season, only two years after being the first player taken in the draft. There’s enough talent here that Kansas City will probably still be on the fringe of playoff contention late into the season, but there are limitations this team simply can’t overcome.

Player To Watch: Sean Smith, CB

The Chiefs have received a lot of criticism over the past couple years for the way they jettisoned Brandon Flowers, a high quality starting cornerback who didn’t fit their scheme because of his lack of size. He went on to have a phenomenal season in San Diego, while Kansas City ended up investing a first round pick in another cornerback. But very quietly Kansas City already has a quality player at that position. A big and physical cornerback, Smith has really developed since signing with the Chiefs. He’s not on Flowers’s level and probably never will be, but he is one of the few role players on this defense who are actually worthy of starting in the NFL. He’s suspended for the first three games, but after that he will be back, partnering with rookie Marcus Peters to form a potentially dangerous cornerback duo.

San Diego Chargers

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Signing Philip Rivers to an extension takes a lot of pressure off this season. He’s made it very clear that he isn’t looking forward to a potential move to Los Angeles, and there was speculation that the team might be forced to part ways with their starting quarterback. Now that he is signed, he can focus himself on playing football, something he is really good at. Keenan Allen is due for a bounceback after a disappointing second season, and their offensive line won’t suffer the constant injuries they endured last year. Melvin Gordon will give them a running game to go along with their dangerous passing attack, and their talented secondary will do enough for their defense to allow this team to reach the playoffs again.

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Outside of a few key players, this roster is as uninspiring as they come. They have no depth at wide receiver, and with Antonio Gates suspended the first four games, their offense is in danger of becoming one dimensional. But the real problems are on the defensive side of the ball where, outside of a few players in their secondary, they don’t really have any above average players. They’ve cobbled together competent defenses the past couple years by controlling the game offensively, but that is a dangerous line to walk, and they are only a few bad breaks from a total defensive collapse that will end any hope of them making the postseason.

Player To Watch: Stevie Johnson, WR

Johnson has fallen off the map a bit after two highly disappointing seasons, and many have given up on him as an aging player who can no longer get open in the league. It’s very possible that this is the case, but it’s also possible that he was hindered by the quarterback situation in Buffalo and San Francisco, a problem he won’t have now in San Diego. Johnson is an ideal fit for Rivers’s talents and Mike McCoy’s scheme, a savvy receiver who has always excelled at creating space with his route running ability. He won’t be a star by any means, but he might be able to offer enough as a secondary target to keep San Diego’s offense running at a high level.

Oakland Raiders

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Okay, let’s be honest about this. The Raiders aren’t going to make the playoffs, and they don’t need to make the playoffs for this season to be a success. They have been so terrible for so long that they can’t be expected to turn it around overnight, but 2015 can be a step in the right direction if they can pull out six or seven wins. They made a pair of quality draft picks last year in Khalil Mack (a future superstar) and Derek Carr (a promising rookie who I’m not quite sold on), and I am fairly confident they added another this year in Amari Cooper. Their goal this year has to be developing this talent, playing for 2016 or 2017 rather than 2015.

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Derek Carr quietly wasn’t very good last year. I mean, he was solid for a rookie, he did a good job taking care of the ball and converting in the red zone. But he was also one of the most conservative quarterbacks in league history, averaging a league low 5.46 yards per attempt, more than half a yard behind the next lowest passer in the league. Maybe Carr was just being cautious on a team with limited talent, and maybe this year with the addition of Cooper he’ll be able to take off. Or maybe he will stagnate much like his current backup Christian Ponder, another quarterback who struggled to stretch the field in Bill Musgrave’s offense. The future of the Raiders rides with Derek Carr, and that isn’t quite the reason for optimism that many think it is.

Player To Watch: Latavius Murray, RB

Murray received quite a bit of buzz coming into last season, buzz that was followed by almost no playing time as he was buried on the bench beneath uninspiring options like Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden. By the time Week Twelve rolled around he only had ten carries, which made it an absolute shock when he broke free for a ninety yard touchdown run. Over the final five games he carried the ball 72 times for 370 yards, and he’s earned the job as the starting running back for this team. I’m not convinced he’ll live up to the hype, but there is certainly a lot to be impressed by physically, a 230 pound running back who ran a 4.38 forty at his Pro Day. He has the gifts to be a special player, and for a team like the Raiders, that’s about the best they have going for them.