NFC
East
1.
Dallas Cowboys 11-5
2.
Philadelphia Eagles 9-7
3.
New York Giants 7-9
4.
Washington Redskins 3-13
Count me among the people
starting to buy into Philadelphia. I didn’t agree with a lot of their offseason
moves, but they absolutely improved their defense with the additions of Kiko
Alonso and Byron Maxwell, and I’m starting to like some of the pieces they have
on offense. They’ve won ten games each of the past two years, and while I don’t
think they’ll reach that same level this season, nine wins will be enough to
get them into the playoffs as a Wild Card team.
The rest of the division seems
pretty simple to me. Dallas has questions at running back, but they are still
the most talented team in the division and one of the best in the conference.
The Giants are as mediocre this year as they’ve been the past three, and
Washington is an absolute train wreck. I have them finishing with the worst
record in the league, and I’ve only become more confident with the announcement
that they will be starting Kirk Cousins, a decision that borders on a tanking
strategy.
South
1.
Atlanta Falcons 9-7
2.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-9
3.
New Orleans Saints 7-9
4.
Carolina Panthers 5-11
This is the one division in the
NFL where I could conceivably see any of the four teams winning it. Carolina is
the two time defending champion, and it’s hard to dismiss them entirely, even
though I think they are the worst of the four teams right now. They have no
wide receivers, they have no offensive line, and their defense is not great
behind the top players. They were a bad team last year that happened to win a
division of bad teams, and they are the only one who made no moves this
offseason to get better.
So the question becomes, which of
the other three will improve enough to claim the title? I don’t know what to
think about New Orleans after they revamped their offense this offseason, but I
think their biggest problems have always been on the other side of the ball,
which they did not address. Tampa Bay will improve, but they were far enough
back last year that I don’t think they can jump to the top. So, almost by
default, I’m going with the Falcons, a talented team that’s caught some bad
breaks over the past couple years. With a new head coach and some interesting
additions on defense, they should be able to do enough to win this division.
West
1.
Seattle Seahawks 13-3
2.
Arizona Cardinals 8-8
3. St
Louis Rams 8-8
4. San
Francisco 49ers 5-11
Seattle’s great, and the rest of
the teams in this division are not. San Francisco has fallen apart at a truly
historic rate, and they’ll wind up picking somewhere in the top ten of next
year’s draft. St Louis is St Louis no matter what we try to convince ourselves.
They are going to have a few nice games, lose a couple of horrifying blowouts,
and finish the season with between six and eight wins. The only team in the
bottom three of this division that is at all interesting is Arizona, and
they’re due to regress after a surprising playoff run in 2014.
So that leaves the Seahawks, the
best team in the NFL over the past three seasons. They’ve shuffled their
offense some, but the major pieces are still there, and they have the easiest
path through their division they’ve faced since their ascension. Darker days
are coming as big contracts and poor drafting begin to catch up to them, but
for now they are still probably the best team in the NFC.
North
1.
Green Bay Packers 12-4
2.
Minnesota Vikings 9-7
3.
Detroit Lions 8-8
4.
Chicago Bears 7-9
Green Bay has lost Jordy Nelson
for the season, and I’m not confident in any of their other receivers to step
up to support Randall Cobb. This will hold them back from being the best team
in the NFC, but it won’t be enough to stop Aaron Rodgers from carrying them to
the division title. More injuries could open things up, but at this point it is
an easy decision to take the Packers against the field.
The other three teams are among
the more interesting in the league. Many are down on the Bears, and even though
I expect them to miss the playoffs, they won’t be nearly as bad as people
expect. They have an outside shot of making the playoffs if things come
together properly, as do the Lions. But I think the top Wild Card contender in
this division is the Vikings. They have a defense ready to leap into the top
ten in the league, and a second year quarterback preparing to lift their
offense to new heights. They’ll battle through the regular season, and in the
end, I expect that they will claim the final postseason spot.
AFC
East
1. New
England Patriots 12-4
2. Miami
Dolphins 10-6
3. New
York Jets 9-7
4.
Buffalo Bills 4-12
With the announcement that Tom
Brady will not be suspended for the first four games, this division just got a
lot less interesting. Before I could have seen the Dolphins (or maybe even the
Jets) going on a run, but with their starting quarterback under center for all
sixteen games the Patriots are clearly the best team in the division. The
Dolphins are good enough that they can make the playoffs as a Wild Card team,
though that depends on Ryan Tannehill building on his progress from last year.
I’m not as excited about the Jets
as a lot of people, but I think they’ll be involved right until the end of the
season. They have a lot of talent on their roster outside of the quarterback
position, comparable to the Texans team Ryan Fitzpatrick helped carry to a 9-7
record last year. On the other hand, I don’t see why so many people are high on
the Bills. This is a bad football team with a great defensive line, and that is
not anywhere close to enough to get them to the playoffs. People are excited
about Tyrod Taylor now, but that will only last as long as it will take for
them to see Taylor play in a game. The Bills are one of the worst teams in the
league, and they don’t have a chance to compete in this division.
South
1.
Indianapolis Colts 11-5
2.
Tennessee Titans 6-10
3.
Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11
4.
Houston Texans 5-11
Indianapolis is going to run away
with this division just as it has for the past three years. The more
interesting question is how the other three teams fall. Tennessee and
Jacksonville are both teams on the rise, and after last season, many would put
Houston in the same category. But looking at the players the Texans have, I
just don’t see it. JJ Watt is great, DeAndre Hopkins is good, and Duane Brown
is okay? There’s not much to like on this roster, and they’re due to take a
major step back this year. Five wins may seem like an overreaction, but we
can’t forget that this team won only two in 2013. It shouldn’t be surprising if
they finish somewhere in the middle of the last two seasons.
As for the Colts, I’m not as high
on them as many other people. They can certainly win the Super Bowl, but I
wouldn’t call them one of the favorites as so many have. Their defense is still
mediocre, and Andrew Luck has a habit of going missing for stretches of games.
The additions in the receiving corps should help him stabilize his performance,
but there are still issues on the rest of their offense. Winning the division
won’t be a challenge. Taking the next step will be.
West
1.
Denver Broncos 12-4
2. San
Diego Chargers 8-8
3.
Kansas City Chiefs 7-9
4.
Oakland Raiders 5-11
I know I’m getting a bit
predictable at this point, but the top teams in the AFC have established
themselves as clearly above the rest. Even with concerns about Peyton Manning,
the Broncos are the best team in this division thanks to their defense. Kansas
City and San Diego are similar teams, driven by superstars and filling their
roster with substandard players. They don’t have the depth or the consistency
to compete unless Denver completely falls apart, something I don’t think is
likely even with the questions surrounding their quarterback.
I feel optimistic about what
Oakland has done the past few years, but that doesn’t mean I’m ready to pick
them to compete. They’ll be better than they’ve been in a while, but that will
still put them near the bottom of the league. I think five wins is nearly a
worst case scenario, and I could conceivably see them winning eight if
everything works out for the best.
North
1.
Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5
2.
Baltimore Ravens 11-5
3.
Cincinnati Bengals 7-9
4.
Cleveland Browns 5-11
After years of battles between
the Steelers and the Ravens, the rise of the Bengals has made this division
into a three team race over the past four years. Well, finally, 2015 will see
this division return to what we’re used to. Cincinnati has had a good run, but
a team can only tread water for so long before sinking or climbing out, and I
think it’s much more likely that the Bengals falter than take the next step. As
for the Browns, though I’m higher on them than most, I don’t think even a
breakout from Johnny Manziel will be enough to lift this offense to the
playoffs.
So it comes down to the Steelers
and Ravens, two teams I think are roughly equal. The Ravens are more reliable,
and I think they’ll make the playoffs no matter what. The Steelers have a bit
more variance, with an offense that can reach elite levels and a defense that
could be a complete disaster. I think they pull things together enough to win
double digit games, and I’ll give them the division over the Ravens on a
tiebreaker, though both will once again make the playoffs.
Awards
Offensive
Rookie of the Year – Jameis Winston, QB Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Barring a ridiculous Odell
Beckham type season, a quarterback only needs to not be a disaster to earn this
award. And of the two rookie quarterbacks who have earned a starting role,
Winston is the one with the most potential for a strong rookie season. He has a
pair of top notch wide receivers in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, and he
could have a transition to the NFL as successful as his first year as a starter
in college. The only concern I have is the offensive line, but it has some
young talent that will improve as the season going along, keeping Winston
upright to make enough big plays for Tampa Bay to improve by several wins.
Defensive
Rookie of the Year – Vic Beasley, DE Atlanta Falcons
Of the pass rushers selected in
the draft Beasley is the most NFL ready, and he is in the best position to
succeed. Atlanta is in desperate need for a pass rush, and Beasley is already
their best option. New head coach Dan Quinn is coming from the best defense in
the league in Seattle, and he’s demonstrated that he knows how to apply
pressure on a quarterback. Beasley will come close to double digit sacks this
season, and Atlanta will take a step forward on defense.
Comeback
Player of the Year – Sam Bradford, QB Philadelphia Eagles
I don’t think Bradford is a very
good quarterback. He’s gotten worse pretty much every year since his rookie
season (which wasn’t nearly as good as you remember it), and over the past two
seasons he’s played a total of seven games. All that said, I think he’ll have
some level of success in Philadelphia which, with all the attention directed
towards the Eagles, should be enough to get him this award. His biggest
weakness is attacking down the field, and Philadelphia’s quick hitting passing
attack perfectly fits his strengths. He’ll be efficient enough on a team with
playoff potential to earn the buzz he needs for this award.
Coach of
the Year – Chip Kelly, Philadelphia Eagles
There is a lot of attention on
Kelly right now, and however the season goes, he’s going to receive a
disproportional amount of credit or blame. A bad season might be enough to get
him fired, but if the Eagles can make it to the playoffs, everyone will
remember this offseason only for the moves he made to improve the defense and
reshape the offense. Kelly is one of the most creative and innovative minds in
football, and even though I have some questions about his work in the front
office, he is good enough as a head coach to earn this award.
Defensive
Player of the Year – JJ Watt, DE Houston Texans
Last season I tried to be cute
with this award and avoided selecting Watt even though he was far and away the
best defensive player in the league. This year I’m not going to make that
mistake. Watt dominates on a level that no other NFL players can reach, and
even though I think the Texans are in for a disappointing season, Watt will do
enough to overcome his team’s failure. This is the obvious pick, but until
anything else happens, it would be foolish not to choose Watt.
MVP – Tony
Romo, QB Dallas Cowboys
I struggled a lot with this
award. The trendy picks are Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck, but I don’t think
either will claim the award. Rodgers is a very good quarterback, but he isn’t
dominant enough to win in two consecutive years. I love Luck’s potential, but
there are still parts of his game that concern me, moments of inconsistency
that I’m not sure will go away just yet. No receiver has ever won the award,
and I don’t think there are any running backs who can be dominant enough to
claim it (not with Le’Veon Bell out the first two games and sharing focus with
teammates Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger).
This award is going to a
quarterback, and it’s going to a team that makes the playoffs. So I looked
through my playoff teams, and the Cowboys were the one that jumped out to me.
Romo was the most efficient quarterback in the league last year, but because of
the success of the Cowboys running game he didn’t receive the attention he
deserved. With the loss of DeMarco Murray their running game is going to fall
off, putting more of the offense’s burden on Romo’s shoulder. He won’t be as
efficient as he was last year, but he’ll produce in greater volume, carrying the
Cowboys to the playoffs once again, and perhaps even farther.
Super Bowl
Denver Broncos over Dallas Cowboys
Picking the Cowboys to come out
of the NFC could very easily be something I come to regret. I’m high on Dallas
coming into the season, but I’m not going to dismiss the possibility of a total
collapse. The loss of Murray could be more devastating to their running game
than we expect. Their defense could struggle with the offense no longer
dominating time of possession. Tony Romo could get hurt. Any number of things
could sink this team’s season. But looking at the rest of the NFC, I don’t see
a team I’m any more confident in. The Packers are a worse team this year than
the one that’s fallen short the past few seasons. The Seahawks are great, but
they’ve lost a lot of their depth. And while teams like Atlanta, Philadelphia,
and Minnesota show promise, there’s enough going on to hold them back from
competing once the playoffs arrive.
So, for the second season in a
row, I’m picking the Broncos to win the Super Bowl. My prediction fell apart
last year with injuries to Peyton Manning, and it’s very possible that could
happen again. Manning is old, and his body won’t last forever, but I think they
can scheme enough out of him to last through the season. And, truthfully, they
don’t need him to be the old Peyton Manning we’re used to seeing. They just
need him to be safe and efficient, enough to keep their offense moving while
their defense stifles opposing teams. With Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, Aqib
Talib, and Chris Harris running together, this is quietly one of the best units
in the league, enough to carry far worse quarterbacks into the playoffs and
beyond.
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