Trading First Round Picks

We’ve had nearly a week now to cool down after the chaos of the beginning of the new season. Huge sums of money were handed out, and players jumped from team to team in trades of the sort we aren’t used to seeing in the NFL. The highest profile of these deals was probably the trade between the Seahawks and the Saints, which saw Jimmy Graham and a 4^th round pick shipped to Seattle in exchange for Max Unger and a 1^st round pick.

That now makes two 1^st round picks this year that have changed hands, joining the one the Bills sent to Cleveland last year as part of a deal for the pick they used on Sammy Watkins. This is a pretty normal number if recent years are to be believed, and it will likely remain the same until the day of the draft (though who the hell knows what will happen anymore?)

The tricky part of trading draft picks is figuring out how to weigh the value of an intangible asset against a very tangible player. An ideal trade should benefit both sides, but it doesn’t always work out that way. I dug through the trades involving 1^st round draft picks made in the past few seasons, in the search of an elusive win-win trade.

I confined myself to looking at trades made prior to draft day, primarily swaps of players for picks. This won’t include deals like Atlanta jumping up on draft day to grab Julio Jones, or Miami sliding up to get Dion Jordan (I also excluded the RGIII trade, because everyone is sick of hearing about that.) For all picks dealt, I included the exact selection numbers in parentheses. So a pick listed as “2^nd round pick (47)” would be the 47^th overall pick, the 15^th of the 2^nd round.

2014

Indianapolis: Trent Richardson

Cleveland Browns: 1^st round pick (26)

This one is recent enough that I probably don’t have to refresh your memory. Trent Richardson sucks, and the Colts have already cut him loose, even with a year remaining on his contract. (As an aside, this was a rather shameless attempt to recoup the money they promised to pay him, which will likely lead to a series of appeals that could last longer than the rest of Richardson’s career.)

Far more interesting is what happened with the pick they traded. Cleveland didn’t just sit on number 26. They traded this and a 3^rd round pick (83) to Philadelphia for the 22^nd pick, which they used on Johnny Manziel. At this point a lot remains to be determined, but it is hard to call them winners either.

Of course, if we’re going to have any fun we can’t just restrain ourselves to the actual teams involved in the original deal. The 83^rd pick received by the Eagles was then dealt to Houston in exchange for a 4^th and a 5^th round pick (101 and 141). Philadelphia used these picks on Jaylen Watkins and Taylor Hart, a pair of special teamers. They used the 1^st round pick they received from Cleveland on linebacker Marcus Smith, whose rookie year failure was a major reason for their offseason front office reshuffling that led to the current chaos in Philadelphia.

Houston used the 83^rd pick they acquired on nose tackle Louis Nix, who played some this year before going down with a season ending injury. This makes them the current winner of these deals, even if he did little enough that they decided to sign Vince Wilfork.

In the hunt for our elusive trade in which everyone wins, we start by finding a trade in which everyone loses. Not exactly promising.

2013

Seattle Seahawks: Percy Harvin

Minnesota Vikings: 1^st round pick (25), 7^th round pick (214), 2014 3^rd round pick (96)

I don’t have much to say on this one now, since I covered it back in October when the Seahawks traded Harvin to the Jets. At the time I decided the trade was firmly in the favor of the Vikings, and it swung even further into their favor over the second half of the season as Xavier Rhodes developed into one of the best cornerbacks in the league.

This impression wasn’t helped by Seattle’s failure to produce any open receivers during the Super Bowl. Had they not made this trade for Harvin and given him a big new contract, they likely would have made a better effort to retain Golden Tate, who may have been enough to earn them a second Super Bowl ring.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Darrelle Revis

New York Jets: 1^st round pick (13), 2014 4^th round pick (104)

This trade is much less complicated than the Colts-Browns swap, though parts of it are just as depressing. Revis is obviously not still with the Buccaneers, cut after a single disappointing season for salary cap/schematic reasons. The Jets held onto the 4^th round pick and used it on wide receiver Jalen Saunders, who didn’t even make it out of his rookie training camp with the team.

The other pick is the one saving grace of this deal. With the 13^th selection in 2013, the Jets selected defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson. Richardson went on to win Defensive Rookie of the Year, and he only improved last season. Right now if they did the 2013 draft over again, he would probably be the first player off the board. And now that they have brought Revis back as a free agent, I think it's pretty clear that we can call the Jets winners. Huh, there’s something I’ve never written, spoken, or thought before.

2012

Oakland Raiders: Carson Palmer

Cincinnati Bengals: 1^st round pick (17), 2013 2^nd round pick (37)

You noticing a trend yet? Doesn’t it seem like the team surrendering the picks to acquire the player rarely gets the better end of the deal? Part of me still feels a bit sympathetic for how this whole situation went down. The Raiders began the 2011 season strong, winning four of their first six before losing starting quarterback Jason Campbell to a broken collarbone. Most teams have the luxury to not overreact to a good six game stretch, but for the Raiders this was the first sign of life in nearly a decade. They couldn’t just afford to surrender to a lost season, so they went out and grabbed the best quarterback available at any cost.

Palmer had been holding out ever since the Bengals drafted Andy Dalton, and Cincinnati was looking for somewhere to dump his contract. The desperation of the Raiders worked to their advantage, giving them far more than he was worth. Palmer can still play at a competent level, as he’s shown the past couple years in Arizona, but he was hopeless thrown into a new scheme in Oakland.

In return, Cincinnati received a 1^st round pick that they spent on cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick and a 2^nd round pick they used on Giovanni Bernard. Kirkpatrick struggled to find the field his first couple years, but he came on strong down the stretch last year and is a promising young piece of their defense. Bernard’s future is less certain, but he remains and intriguing player as a change of pace to Jeremy Hill.

2011

Oakland Raiders: Richard Seymour

New England Patriots: 1^st round pick (17)

Seriously, Oakland? And you wonder why you’re terrible. Yes, two straight years the Raiders traded away their 1^st round pick (17^th overall both times) to bring in an over the hill veteran to add to a roster that wasn’t going anywhere in the first place. It’s one thing for someone fighting for a championship to trade their future for a 30 year old defensive lineman. It’s something else entirely for a team that should be trying to rebuild to waste their resources on aging veterans.

New England made the rest of this fairly simple. They used the 1^st round pick they received on Nate Solder, a reliable, league average left tackle. Just the sort of player Oakland would love to have on their roster. But instead they had the privilege of counting $19 million of Seymour’s salary against their cap even after they had cut him in 2013.

2010

Denver Broncos: Alphonso Smith

Seattle Seahawks: 1^st round pick (14)

This one falls into a slightly different category. The Broncos traded this pick during the 2009 draft in exchange for Seattle’s 2^nd round pick that year (37), which they used on Wake Forest cornerback Alphonso Smith. If you haven’t heard of Alphonso Smith, I don’t blame you. The Broncos cut him after only a single season, and he’s been out of the league since 2012. In exchange for that one season, they gave up their next year’s 1^st round pick. That’s right, the Broncos traded a 1^st round pick for a 2^nd round pick.

Of course, because the universe has a sense of humor, the Seahawks used that pick on Earl Thomas. Yes, in order to draft one of the biggest defensive back busts of the past decade, the Broncos gave up the pick that became one of the best defensive backs in the league. Earl Thomas is now an All Pro safety who was the best player on a defense that won the Super Bowl by shutting down, of all teams, the Denver Broncos.

2009-2010

Chicago Bears: Jay Cutler, 5^th round pick (140)

Denver Broncos: Kyle Orton 1^st round pick (18), 3^rd round pick (84),  2010 1^st round pick (11)

Here we have it, the biggest NFL trade of the past decade. It’s strange how little we think about this anymore, but if it happened today we would all collectively lose our minds. Two teams swapping starting quarterbacks, with one sending a pair of future 1^st round picks in order to acquire a player thought to be one of the up and coming stars in the league. That so many pieces of the deal ended up disappointing does not change how staggering this move was.

I really don’t want to get into a discussion of Jay Cutler’s career right now. He hasn’t been a success in Chicago, but I wouldn’t call him a failure either. Similarly, I don’t know how to evaluate Orton’s Denver career. He did some good things, but he was also benched for Tim Tebow. So let’s just focus on the draft picks.

The pick Chicago received ended up being pretty straightforward. In the 5^th round of the 2009 draft they selected wide receiver Johnny Knox. Knox was a major contributor on special teams and a slightly below average starter on offense, before a devastating back injury ended his career. Still, I think it’s fair to say that the Bears got more than they could have expected out of a 5^th round selection.

Tracking the Broncos picks gets a bit more complicated, but here it goes. In 2009 they used their 1^st rounder on defensive end Robert Ayers, a definite bust. The 3^rd round pick was packaged with Denver’s other 3^rd round pick (79) to the Steelers in exchange for a 2^nd round pick (64) and a 4^th round pick (132).

Denver used these selections to grab tight end Richard Quinn, who lasted two years with the team, and offensive lineman Seth Olson, who only made it one year. Pittsburgh turned the 79^th pick into offensive lineman Kraig Urbik—also lasted only a year—and with the 84^th pick (the one that originally belonged to the Bears) they took wide receiver Mike Wallace. So I think we can count the Steelers as winners on this one.

Okay, that was a lot. But there’s still one pick left, Chicago’s 2010 1^st rounder. And this is where it gets really interesting. Denver traded down two spots so San Francisco could move up to select offensive tackle Anthony Davis. As part of this deal they received a 4^th round pick (113). Holding the 13^th pick now, they sent it to Philadelphia (who drafted defensive end Brandon Graham) to move down to number 24, receiving two 3^rd round picks (70 and 87). But they weren’t done yet. From number 24 they moved up two spots to grab Demaryius Thomas, sending the Patriots the 4^th round pick they had received from the 49ers.

The Patriots used this pick to take Aaron Hernandez (…awkward…) and sent the 1^st rounder to Dallas (along with a 4^th rounder (119)) in exchange for Dallas’s 1^st round pick (27) and 3^rd round pick (90). The Patriots used these selections on defensive back Devin McCourty and wide receiver Taylor Price. Dallas used the 1^st rounder on Dez Bryant and sent the 4^th rounder to Miami in exchange for Miami’s 4^th round pick (126) and 6^th round pick (179). The players taken with these three picks were respectively: AJ Edds, Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, and Sam Young.

So we’re done, right? Not quite. Because Denver still has the two 3^rd round picks they received from Philadelphia. With number 87 they took Eric Decker, yet another phenomenal wide receiver wrapped into these deals. They did not hold onto number 70, however. They sent it along with a 2^nd round pick (43) and a 4^th round pick (114) to Baltimore in exchange for the Ravens 1^st round pick (25). Baltimore used the 43^rd pick on Sergio Kindle, the 70^th pick on Ed Dickson, and the 114^th on Dennis Pitta.

And with the 25^th pick? The Broncos selected Tim Tebow. And we’re back to the quarterback shell game that started it all.

That was a lot, so to summarize with additions in green and subtractions in red:

Denver: Kyle Orton, Robert Ayers, Richard Quinn, Seth Olsen, Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Tim Tebow, Jay Cutler, 2009 3^rd (79), 2009 5^th (140), 2010 2^nd (43), 2010 4^th (114)

Chicago: Jay Cutler, Johnny Knox, Kyle Orton, 2009 1^st (18), 2009 3^rd (84), 2010 1^st (11)

Pittsburgh: Mike Wallace, Kraig Urbik, 2009 2^nd (64), 2009 4^th (132)

San Francisco: Anthony Davis, 2010 1^st (13), 2010 4^th (113)

Philadelphia: Brandon Graham, 2010 1^st (24), 2010 3^rd (70), 2010 3^rd (87)

New England: Devin McCourty, Taylor Price, Aaron Hernandez, 2010 1^st (22), 2010 4^th (119)

Dallas: Dez Bryant, Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, Sam Young, 2010 1^st (27), 2010 3^rd (90)

Miami: AJ Edds, 2010 4^th (126), 2010 6^th (179)

Baltimore: Sergio Kindle, Ed Dickson, Dennis Pitta, 2010 1^st (25)

Have fun figuring out who won and lost all that.

2009

 

Dallas Cowboys: Roy Williams, 7^th round pick (210)

Detroit Lions: 1^st round pick (20), 3^rd round pick (82), 5^th round pick (192)

Yeah, I don’t think we even need to look at who Detroit selected to know who won this trade. Roy Williams is one of the greatest trade busts of all time, lost in the many punch lines in recent Cowboys history. Over two and a half seasons in Dallas he managed a total of 94 catches for 1324 yards and 13 touchdowns. That would be a pretty good stat line over sixteen games. Unfortunately, it took him 40.

Of course, then you take a look at what Detroit got. With their 1^st round pick they selected tight end Brandon Pettigrew, who has been somewhere between disappointing and irrelevant for most of his career. In the 3^rd round they chose Derrick Williams, a wide receiver who never caught a pass for them. Which I guess puts him behind their 6^th round pick Aaron Brown, who over three years with the team produced a total of 327 yards from scrimmage.

I’m going to call this another lose-lose trade.

2008

San Francisco 49ers: Joe Staley

New England Patriots: 1^st round pick (10), 2007 4^th round pick (110)

Like the Alphonso Smith–Earl Thomas deal, this one was made on draft day the previous year. The 49ers gave up their 1^st round pick next season in exchange for New England’s 2007 1^st rounder, which they used on offensive tackle Joe Staley. A disappointing season in 2007 meant the pick they gave up was fairly high in the 1^st round, but it is difficult to call them losers of a deal that landed them a future 3 time All Pro.

New England took full advantage of their pick as well, using it on Jerrod Mayo who was the heart and soul of their defense until going down with injuries the past two seasons. But they did even better with the 4^th round pick, which was thrown in almost as an afterthought. They kept it for a single day before passing it on to the Raiders in a straight up deal for a wide receiver by the name of Randy Moss. And with the 110^th pick in the 2007 NFL draft, the Raiders selected defensive back John Bowie, who never started a single game for them.

What do you know? A deal in which everybody won, and the Raiders somehow still lost.

2008

Minnesota Vikings: Jared Allen

Kansas City Chiefs: 1^st round pick (17), 3^rd round pick (73), 3^rd round pick (82)

Here it is, the Platonic Ideal of an NFL trade. In 2008 Jared Allen was one of the best young defensive ends in the league, coming off a season in which he led the NFL in sacks despite missing the first two games. The problem was that he had only a year left on his contract, and it looked like Kansas City was in the process of tearing things down. He had no real interest in returning to Kansas City, and thanks to some off the field issues (Remember how I mentioned he missed the first two games of the season? That was a suspension for repeated alcohol issues.) they weren’t particularly eager to bring him back either.

The solution was to send him to Minnesota, an up and coming young team with a stout run defense in serious need of a pass rusher. There was some concern at the time that Allen’s off the field troubles could follow him, but we all know how it worked out. He cleaned up his act, led all NFL players with 85.5 sacks over his six years in Minnesota, and earned himself an eventual spot in Canton. There isn’t a single Vikings fan out there who would undo the trade if given the chance.

Fewer people realize how well Kansas City made out in the deal. The latter 3^rd round pick turned into basically nothing—Dajuan Morgan, a safety who was with them for only two seasons. But a miss like that is perfectly acceptable when they hit on their other two picks like they did. In the 1^st round they grabbed Branden Albert, who became one of the NFL’s best left tackles over his six years in Kansas City. This was a fantastic pick, a major contributor that would almost be enough to make it a fair deal.

But where they really hit was with the other pick they received. With the 73^rd pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, the Kansas City Chiefs selected running back Jamaal Charles. Yeah, I’m pretty sure no Chiefs fans out there want to redo this trade either.

So there we have it. 2008, the year of the mutually beneficial trade. If we could look into the future, maybe seven years down the road we’ll see another such trade, one in which the team surrendering their future for a single player doesn’t end up utterly screwed in the end. Until then, I think it’s probably a smart thing for teams just to hold on to their 1^st round picks.