Opening Week Excitement

On Wednesday I covered the teams panicking over the results of their opening week. Today I’m going to look at the other end of the spectrum, the teams excited over the success they found in their first game. Like the teams from my first post, these eight are likely overreacting to the results of a single game. I’ve ranked these teams on an Excitement Meter from 1 to 10, with 10 being the highest level of excitement. And yes, these rankings are ridiculous and arbitrary.

San Francisco 49ers

Colin Kaepernick

Ever since Kaepernick’s explosive debut on Monday Night Football against the Bears, everyone has been waiting for him to truly break out. He’s put together plenty of spectacular games (mostly in the postseason, which has only heightened his reputation) but has yet to show any real sign of becoming an elite NFL quarterback. For the past year or so his occasional inconsistencies have been blamed on his receiving corps, but with the health of Michael Crabtree and the addition of Stevie Johnson, that excuse is no longer available. Many expect him to break out this season, and after his opening week performance against the Cowboys these people are patting themselves on the back.

He certainly was impressive in the game, better than his solid numbers suggest. He was crisp and efficient, identifying the open receiver and hitting them exactly on schedule. The 49ers moved the ball effortlessly before settling into a plodding, game control mode in the second half, and Kaepernick was the biggest reason for their success. Of course, this all comes with one major caveat. They were playing against the Cowboys, maybe the worse defense in the league. It will be interesting to see what Kaepernick can do against a competent defensive unit, but for now there is every reason to believe he is ready to take the next step.

Excitement Meter: 7/10

Minnesota Vikings

Defense

Minnesota’s defense actually outscored their opponents this past weekend. They held the Rams to two field goals, and late in the game Harrison Smith returned an interception for a touchdown to put a cap on a fantastic debut game for head coach Mike Zimmer. Zimmer has a reputation as one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL, transforming Cincinnati over the past six years into one of the best defenses in the NFL. He was brought into Minnesota to oversee the transition of the defense that was last in the league in points allowed last year, and this first game is certainly an indication that he is on the way to turning them around. They generated consistent pressure on the Rams quarterbacks, shut down the running game that was so prolific a season ago, and held in check a talented group of young receivers.

I don’t know if their defense will hold up much longer. Their next five games are against the Patriots, Saints, Falcons, Packers, and Lions, and it seems inevitable that they will face the harsh realities brought on by these elite offenses. But right now Vikings fans are thinking long term, and this defense is in great shape in the years ahead. Smith continues to make plays at safety, and I would be surprised if he doesn’t make the Pro Bowl this season. Second year player Sharrif Floyd was strong against the Rams, and with free agent signing Linval Joseph beside him the Vikings could have their next pair of dominant defensive tackles. They will only get better as players like Floyd and rookie Anthony Barr continue to improve. By next season this will absolutely be one of the top ten defenses in the NFL, and their ceiling is probably even higher than that.

Excitement Meter: 7/10

Carolina Panthers

Kelvin Benjamin

I was not high on Benjamin coming into the season. I thought that even with Carolina’s wretched receiving corps, he would still be the third best wide receiver option on their team. He is unpolished as a route runner, and he will struggle to create separation at this level. That’s still true, but it turns out you don’t need much separation if you’re 6’5” and can do this.

Benjamin’s opening game was everything Carolina could have hoped for, and more. The thinness of their receiving corps was the biggest concern heading into the season, but last year they showed they could field a playoff worthy offense with just a single above average receiver. If Benjamin can match this production over the course of the season, he can be the key to this roster exceeding expectations. But that is a very big if, especially at a position where big games come and go with seemingly little predictability. Here is a list put together by Chase Stuart of Football Perspective (one of the best football websites running) of the best performances by rookie receivers in their first game. Benjamin ranks 12^th on the list, behind a list of players ranging from Randy Moss to Stephen Hill. As good as Benjamin’s first game was, I wouldn't be surprised if he never comes close to that productivity the rest of the season.

Excitement Meter: 4/10

Philadelphia Eagles

Resilience

Last year Nick Foles threw 27 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions. That is insane, and absolutely unrepeatable. Everyone besides the most insane Eagles fans understands this—the media, the Eagles coaching staff, even Foles. The question coming into this season was not whether Foles would fall back to Earth. It was how far he would fall, and whether the team could survive anything other than perfect luck.

Even those anticipated significant regression from Foles could not have expected it to come so quickly. He lost fumbles on each of his first two possessions and threw an interception in the second quarter, nearly matching last season’s turnover total before halftime. The team dropped quickly into a 17 point hole before blowing things open in the fourth quarter and winning easily. Last year everything came easy to them, but a team can’t win a championship unless they can overcome adversity. The Eagles showed that they could do so this weekend, even if it was against one of the worst teams in the NFL. They will face more challenging situations down the road, but this one win could be enough to give them the confidence to stay in any game. With their explosive offense, they have no reason to worry about falling too far behind.

Excitement Meter: 5/10

Tennessee Titans

Breakout Defense

The Titans have an intriguing young defense, one that many people have been expecting to break out for several years. They have one of the most underrated cornerbacks in the NFL in Jason McCourty, probably the most athletic set of linebackers outside of Seattle, and an absolute superstar on the defensive line in Jurrell Casey. But last year that wasn’t enough, as they finished near the bottom of the league in defense again. This offseason saw a change in scheme as they switched to a 3-4, and I heard nothing during the preseason to suggest that this shift was going well. But we all know that the preseason can be deceiving, and this weekend they showed signs of finally reaching their potential. They held Kansas City to 10 points and forced three turnovers on their way to an easy victory.

There are a couple reasons not to believe in this defense. Kansas City’s offense is wretchedly terrible, and last season the Titans opened with a similarly dominant performance, holding the Steelers to 9 points before their defense fell apart over the course of the season. Their defense will definitely not be this good the entire year, but I think what we saw on Sunday was closer to the final product than most people realize. The talent is definitely there, and they are being led by a new defensive coordinator Ray Horton, who is responsible for constructing the Cardinals defense as it exists today. He is one of the better coordinators in the league, and I think he will turn this into a top ten defense by the end of next season.

Excitement Meter: 7/10

Cleveland Browns

Running Game

I covered this game some when looking at Pittsburgh in Wednesday’s post. As bad as the Steelers feel about their victory, the Browns have to feel fantastic about their defeat. After a dismal first half they showed some genuine life, rallying and getting in position to win the game before surrendering a late field goal. Quarterback Brian Hoyer played well during this stretch (even though he was lucky to have three passes dropped by Steelers defenders) but the real reason they got back in the game was their rushing attack. After starter Ben Tate went down, backups Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell combined to gain 132 yards on 21 carries, scoring two of the touchdowns that got them back into the game.

Cleveland’s running game was abysmal last season, part of the reason they led the league in pass attempts. But with their problems at wide receiver they will need a strong running game if they want to have any offensive success this season, and they may have found it. But I’m going to have to exercise caution for now, considering we’re dealing with two running backs who had never played an NFL game before last Sunday. This could very easily be a flash in the pan, something good NFL defenses can take away going forward. Any running game is a good sign for Cleveland, but they have a long way to go before I’m ready to believe.

Excitement Meter: 2/10

San Diego Chargers

Pass Rush

Like the Browns the Chargers lost their first game, a hard fought, devastating defeat by the Cardinals on Monday Night Football. As most people expected, their offense was not nearly as efficient as it was last season, managing only 17 points against a banged up Cardinals defense. We’ve always known that the offense is the strength of this team, and if they can’t score points their defense is not going to win them any games. Yet they came extremely close to winning on Monday, even with their disappointing performance on offense. They did so because, for the first time in years, they put together a solid pass rush. Rookie Jerry Attachou (who I covered in my AFC West Preview) generated consistent pressure, including a sack and a forced fumble. Arizona could not stretch the ball down the field, and for most of the game their offense could do nothing.

If this pass rush can hold up through the season, the Chargers suddenly become an easy favorite to grab one of the wild card spots. But I’m going to hold off my excitement for now, considering the end results of the game and the competition they were playing. Arizona has made a lot of moves to improve their offensive line, but this is still a unit that was at the bottom of the league the past few seasons. As the game went on the Cardinals managed to neutralize the pass rush by switching to an attack of quick, short passes. San Diego’s secondary still can’t hold up, and a pass rush won’t help them if they let receivers run wide open off the snap of the ball.

Excitement Meter: 3/10

New York Jets

Geno Smith

Smith was quietly very solid down the stretch last year. Everyone jumped off the bandwagon during a wretched November—a QB rating over a four game stretch of 24.5 will do that—but he rebounded with a competent December, nearly enough to push the Jets into the playoffs. Expectations were almost nonexistent coming into the season, with most people surprised when he earned the starting job over free agent signing Michael Vick. But in the first game of the season he outperformed anything anyone had predicted, completing 23 of his 28 passes for 221 yards and adding 38 yards on the ground. This is the sort of efficiency we did not see from him last year, and it certainly has to get Jets fans excited for the season ahead.

This is where I pump the brakes hard. It absolutely needs to be noted that Smith was playing against the Raiders, probably the worst team in football. The only way Oakland fields a competent defense is if they’re playing in a temporal distortion that turns everyone back into their 2009 selves. That wasn’t the case on Sunday, when Smith carved up a washed up unit of Justin Tuck, Lamarr Woodley, Charles Woodson, and Carlos Rogers. And even so, Smith’s performance and over 200 yards on the ground were only enough to earn the Jets 19 points. I’m going to need to see more before I believe, against competition that actually belongs on an NFL field.

Excitement Meter: 2/10