AFC North Preview

Pittsburgh Steelers

Reason to be excited: Offensive Line Stability

There is very little more important to an offensive line than continuity. Even a bad offensive line can find some success if they’re used to working together, and even a good one can struggle if they can’t communicate. The Steelers have invested a lot of high picks in linemen over the past few seasons, and right now it would be difficult to call any of them bad players. But injuries have crippled their development, as the team has had to start 24 different offensive line combinations over the past three seasons. But as their line stabilized late last season their offense really took off, and if they can remain healthy this year they will be an extremely productive team both on the ground and through the air.

Reason to be nervous: Run Defense

For years the Steelers could always count on the ability to stop opposing rushers, thanks largely to the massive mountain in the middle of their defense that was Casey Hampton. But Hampton retired a couple years ago, and they haven’t had any luck finding a replacement for him. They don’t have a true nose tackle on the roster, forcing them to make do with a couple of defensive ends who have added weight to their frames. Their two interior linebackers are known more for their athleticism than their strength, and they can no longer count on Troy Polamalu’s freakish speed to come up in support against the run. A powerful interior running game can gash this defense and control the ball, preventing their streaky offense from establishing any sort of rhythm.

Impact Rookie: Ryan Shazier

Shazier will have some issues this season, but he will also put up a lot of big numbers. He is part of their weakness against the run, an undersized linebacker who will struggle to beat blockers in tight spaces. But he can absolutely fly, probably the fastest linebacker in the league right now. He will make plays from sideline to sideline and accumulate a huge number of tackles, and he will probably add several sacks and a couple interceptions. His numbers will be enough for most people to overlook his deficiencies, and right now I think he’s the favorite to go home with Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Player to Watch: David DeCastro

I addressed their offensive line above, and DeCastro may be the most crucial piece of this. He was one of the most highly touted guard prospects in years coming out of Stanford, but he struggled through his rookie season thanks to a knee injury that cost him all but three games. He got off to a slow start last year, but after week four he was one of the best guards in the league. He is a powerful force in the running game, and he has the sort of nastiness that every offensive line coach loves to see, holding his blocks a second past every whistle. With him working next to Maurkice Pouncey the Steelers could have one of the best interiors in the NFL.

Prediction:

The Steelers are not among the class of the AFC, but they are the class of this division. Their offense is head and shoulders above any other in the division, and it will only be better if their offensive line can stay healthy and they can find a consistent running game. They still have plenty of holes they need to patch—their defense is shaky, and they need to find someone other than Antonio Brown in the passing game—but having the best quarterback means a lot in the current NFL, and Ben Roethlisberger is indisputably the best quarterback in the AFC North. This is a team that should make the playoffs, and they have the sort of talent needed to make a surprise run towards the Super Bowl.

Baltimore Ravens

Reason to be excited: Offensive Regression

We often talk about regression in the context of overachieving teams falling back to earth, but it works the other way as well. The Ravens were atrocious offensively last year, to the point that they can’t possibly be as bad this season. Based on Football Outsider’s rankings they had the two worst running backs in the league, and Joe Flacco had the most ineffective season of his career. Even if Ray Rice doesn’t return to the player he used to be, he can’t be as bad as he was last year. Even if Flacco doesn’t live up to his contract, he will still play better than in 2013. This offense is no longer one of the bottom five in the league, and that improvement may be enough to push them into the playoffs in the miserable AFC.

Reason to be nervous: Front Seven

Baltimore’s success over the past decade has been built on its defensive front. Ray Lewis received all the attention, but they received nearly as much from Tony Siragusa, Peter Boulware, Haloti Ngata, and Terrell Suggs. Most of those players are gone now—Suggs and Ngata are still around, but they are shells of their former selves—and they’ve had little success finding their replacements up front. Their young players haven’t stepped up yet, and they will need rookies like CJ Mosley and Timmy Jernigan to have immediate impacts, in addition to seeing development from players like Courtney Upshaw. I’m not confident they will get this, and I suspect their defense will continue to decline.

Impact Rookie: Lorenzo Taliaferro

The Ravens had a historically bad running game last season, and I see little reason to expect it to miraculously recover this year. Even with the regression I addressed above, I don’t expect they will put up with Rice and Bernard Pierce averaging fewer than four yards a carry for very long. Eventually they will look elsewhere for production, turning to the rookie they selected in the fourth round. Taliaferro is an interesting prospect, a small school running back ideally suited to the one cut running of their new zone scheme. Their offensive coordinator is Gary Kubiak, who was the coordinator in Denver for years as Mike Shanahan churned out productive rookie running backs. If Rice and Pierce don’t pick up their production, Taliaferro will get a chance to show off his skills in this scheme.

Player to Watch: Lardarius Webb

Baltimore’s front seven has issues, but they have built a solid secondary behind it. Matt Elam had a decent rookie season at safety, and Jimmy Smith finally came into his own after a couple disappointing seasons. But the best player in their secondary is one who missed most of last year thanks to a torn ACL. Webb has a history of injury issues, and there are reasons to be concerned about how he will return (he has already missed the entire preseason with a back injury.) But before he was injured he was the best coverage man on Baltimore’s roster, on his way to becoming one of the better cornerbacks in the league. If he can return at his old level of play, the Ravens will likely be able to put together an average defense on the strength of their secondary.

Prediction:

After a down season, Baltimore will likely make their way into the playoffs again. A slight improvement over last year and a weak conference will push them over the top, even though this team still isn’t anywhere near the level they were at during their Super Bowl run. They have the benefit of a good head coach and an average quarterback, enough to get any team over the hump in the top heavy AFC. They aren’t capable of competing with the top teams like Denver and New England, but they might be able to win the first game of the playoffs before being trounced by one of the heavyweights.

Cincinnati Bengals

Reason to be excited: Return of Geno Atkins

Atkins was one of the five best defensive players in the NFL before he tore his ACL, and I don’t think he’ll lose a step on his return. It is incredible that we live in a world where the three best defensive tackles all came from the 2010 draft--with the second pick, the third pick, and the 120^th pick. Atkins was the last of these, falling because of his less than desirable size. But in the NFL he has shown speed and technique that more than make up for his diminutive stature, becoming the best interior pass rusher in the NFL. There might be some concerns about his injury or about the change in defensive coordinator, but his talent is enough to silence any of these questions.

Reason to be nervous: Coaching Transitions

It is difficult to measure the impact of a coordinator until he’s gone. The Bengals saw both coordinators leave to take head coaching jobs this season, Jay Gruden in Washington and Mike Zimmer in Minnesota. The loss of Gruden might not be a terrible thing, giving Andy Dalton a fresh perspective to try to add tools to his game. The loss of Zimmer could very well be devastating to a defense that has carried this team for the past few years despite lacking exceptional talent. Zimmer has proven to be one of the best coordinators in the league, and we can’t be certain if they will find the same success under Paul Guenther, who hasn’t been a coordinator in the NFL since 1997.

Impact Rookie: Russell Bodine

The Bengals have had one of the best offensive lines in the NFL over the past few years, but they went through quite a bit of turmoil on the unit last season. Star left tackle Andrew Whitworth was forced to move in to play left guard, leaving Anthony Collins to take over protecting the blind side. They handled this wonderfully, but Collins left as a free agent, robbing them of their depth and flexibility. They need someone reliable to play guard so Whitworth can continue to man the tackle position, and they may have found it in Bodine, their fourth round pick out of North Carolina. Bodine doesn’t fit the mold of the new, athletic guards in the league, but his old fashioned style fits what Cincinnati likes to do. He led the combine with 42 reps on the bench, and he will use his strength to pave holes for their two young running backs to run through.

Player to Watch: Margus Hunt

Hunt may be the most freakish athlete in the NFL. He is 6’8”, 280 pounds, and ran a 4.6 in the forty at the combine. He was a second round pick despite never playing football before he reached college—he was at SMU as a discuss thrower and decided to go out for football when the track team was eliminated. He contributed very little his rookie year, but it looks like this season the Bengals are planning on getting him into the rotation at defensive end. He’s still listed as a backup for now, but Cincinnati always uses a fairly deep rotation on their line. He should eventually slide into the role of departed Michael Johnson, another freakish athlete who lacked elite pass rushing skills.

Prediction:

Cincinnati is bound to take a major step back this season, and they will likely miss the playoffs for the first time since drafting AJ Green and Andy Dalton. The loss of their coordinators is a big deal, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Their secondary is a point of concern, with a cornerback unit filled with aging veterans and undeveloped young talents. Until they complete the transition to Dre Kirkpatrick and Darqueze Dennard they will give up a lot of opportunities through the air. Their offense is still too reliant on AJ Green, and I don’t see Dalton taking a step forward to justify his massive new contract. This team may be able to sneak in as the final Wild Card team, but I think they will end up on the outside looking in and searching for a new head coach.

Cleveland Browns

 

Reason to be excited: Johnny Football

Manziel will be the starting quarterback of the Browns at some point this season. My money is on Week 7, after Hoyer has struggled through games against the Saints, the Ravens, the Titans, and two against the Steelers. This would actually be the ideal time for him to come in, with back to back games against the Jaguars and the Raiders. Whenever he does take over as the starting quarterback, it will certainly be entertaining. I think Manziel will be a good long term answer at quarterback, but he will probably struggle quite a bit his rookie season. But the Browns weren’t going anywhere with or without him, and his occasional flashes of brilliance will at least give their fans something to enjoy.

Reason to be nervous: Offensive Skill Talent

When Manziel finally does take over, he’s not going to be put in a great position to succeed. Much has been made about Cleveland’s talent void at the wide receiver position, but I don’t see much to like anywhere else among their offensive weapons. Jordan Cameron exploded early last season, but over the final twelve games he managed fewer than six hundred yards and only two touchdowns. Ben Tate is supposed to be the savior of their atrocious running game, despite never having shown himself to be a reliable starting running back. This offense is going to be bad no matter who plays quarterback, and they will need Manziel to make a lot of plays on his own if they want to put up points.

Impact Rookie: Terrance West

West was one of the more popular names as a rookie sleeper a month ago, before he had an absolutely disastrous preseason. He averaged only 2.7 yards per carry, ending up with fewer rushing yards during the four games than Manziel. But I still have faith that he will have a strong rookie campaign, perhaps even supplanting Tate as the starter by the end of the season. Last year Cleveland was the worst rushing attack in the league (they only managed 93 yards against the Bears!) but they have the pieces up front to support a strong running attack. Even if Tate doesn’t work out as they hope, West can take some of the load from him.

Player to Watch: Jabaal Sheard

Sheard has been one of the more interesting prospects in football the past few seasons. He was a second round selection in 2011, starting right away and accumulating 8 sacks over his first season. He added another 7.5 in his second season but managed only 5.5 last year as he was forced to change positions with Cleveland's transition to a 3-4 scheme. What looks like a steady decline in production could very easily be a mask concealing his readiness for a breakout season, as he becomes more adjusted to their defense and finds himself rushing opposite last year’s first round pick Barkevious Mingo. Head coach Mike Pettine led one of the best pass rushes in the league last year in Buffalo, and he should be able to get the most out of his young talent. Sheard will probably never develop into an elite pass rusher, but I expect he will rack up double digit sacks this year.

Prediction:

The Browns have put together one of the best young defenses in the NFL, and with Pettine taking over as head coach it should only be better. He will get the most out of their deep pass rush, and he will smooth the holes in Joe Haden’s game to put him on the same level as the top cornerbacks Revis, Sherman, and Peterson. The best defense in the division will reside in Cleveland this season, but it won’t be enough to overcome their woeful offense. Even if Manziel comes in early in the season and develops into a dangerous playmaker, he still doesn’t have the talent around him to lead a productive system. This team has plenty of reasons to be hopeful for the future (including Buffalo’s first round pick next year), but they will have to spend another season looking forward to the draft.