Opening Week Panic

The first week of the NFL is often the most fun because it exists almost entirely devoid of context. All we have to judge these teams are a single game and our preexisting beliefs, both of which can be extremely misleading. A poor matchup or a bad game suddenly becomes reason to panic, and anything remotely positive produces unrestrained excitement.

I'll be back with the positives from Week One, but because I enjoy spreading negativity, I'll start today with the teams that are panicking. I've selected one team from each division and picked out the piece of their roster that gives them the most reason for concern following their first game. I've given each team a ranking on a Panic Meter scale from 1 to 10, with 10 being the most panic imaginable. Some of these issues will recur, and some of them will fade into memory.

St Louis Rams

Pass Rush

A lot went wrong in St Louis on Sunday. Of all the teams in the NFL they had probably the worst performance, managing only 6 points against a Vikings team that allowed 30 per game last season. The issues at quarterback only worsened when they lost replacement Shaun Hill to a quad injury, but they did not expect their running game to be so utterly ineffective. Their defense wasn’t much better, and that’s where the real concern lies. No one was particularly high on the Rams coming into the season, but everyone agreed that they had the most terrifying front four in the NFL. Even if they did nothing else well, they would get after the quarterback. But even that didn’t work out on Sunday, as they managed only one sack on Matt Cassel.

The lone sack was distressing, as was every part of St Louis’s performance. But I don’t think there is much reason for the Rams to be concerned about their pass rush. The Vikings have a solid offensive line, and the Rams still managed to get a lot more pressure than the one sack indicates. Minnesota took very few shots down field, and a few of Cassel’s pass attempts were knocked off target by the pressure of the defensive line. Minnesota’s 34 points were accumulated thanks to a short field set up by an interception, a long run from Cordarrelle Patterson, and another interception that was returned for a touchdown. The Rams defense looked borderline competent, and their front four was only mildly disappointing. Robert Quinn generated consistent pressure when he wasn’t double teamed, and let’s just say that I have no worries about rookie Aaron Donald.

Panic Meter: 2/10

Chicago Bears

Passing Attack

The most surprising outcome of the day was Chicago’s loss at home to Buffalo. The Bears were seen as a playoff contender, with the Bills much more likely to be in contention for the number one overall pick. Much of the criticism for Chicago's defeat is going towards their defense, which looked eerily similar to last year as it allowed the Bills to march down the field and win it in overtime. But right now the defense is not their biggest issue. This team was always going to be carried by their offense, and they won't be winning many games this year if they can only score 20 points.

There are reasons to believe that this disappointing offensive performance will not repeat. The Bills have a much better defense than people realize. They were one of the ten best defenses in the league last season, and they have the best defensive line outside St Louis. There were some concerns that they could be hurt by the losses of safety Jairus Byrd and defensive coordinator Mike Pettine, but it wouldn’t surprise anyone if they turned out to be a strong defense again this year. Add in the fact that the Bears played much of this game without Alshon Jeffery and with a hobbled Brandon Marshall, and it’s understandable why their offense struggled to move the ball. This is not a deep team, but both of these receivers should return quickly from their mild injuries.

However, there is one big reason to be concerned, and that is Jay Cutler. I’ve always been a fan and defender of Cutler, but right now it is hard for me to take his side. He was thrust into an unfortunate situation with his top receiving threats going down, but that doesn’t excuse the two terrible interceptions he threw. The Bears have a razor thin margin for error if they want to make the playoffs this season, and they cannot afford mistakes from their quarterback. Cutler has to be better the rest of this season, otherwise the Bears will wind up losing a lot of games like they did against the Bills.

Panic Meter: 5/10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Offense

Everyone understood coming into the season that Tampa Bay would live or day based on the success of their offense. Their defense is extremely good, and they performed well on Sunday (even if they did struggle to pressure the quarterback.) Their offense is another story. They were horrendous on Sunday, far and away the worst offense in the NFL. They couldn’t move the ball on the ground, and they couldn’t move the ball through the air. Josh McCown was brought in as a free agent in the hopes that he could replicate some of his success in Chicago, but instead he spent most of the day doing stuff like this.

 

There are mitigating factors of course, as there always are. Carolina lost a lot of pieces in the offseason, but their dominant front six remains intact. Tampa Bay’s offensive line is the weakness of their offense, and they will struggle against teams with quality defensive fronts. But even all of this cannot explain the sheer ineptitude of the Buccaneers offense. Their fullback broke a 54 yard run, but their other two running backs combined to carry thirteen times for 21 yards. McCown threw more interceptions in this one game than he did all last season, including this one, which needs to be watched as many times as possible.

Panic Meter: 8/10

Dallas Cowboys

Same old Tony Romo

We all expected Dallas’s defense to be bad. And they were, despite shutting out the 49ers in the second half. But the defense wasn’t the reason Dallas lost this game, nor was it the running attack that saw the Cowboys average 5.5 yards per carry. The biggest problem was their inability to protect the football, an issue highlighted by the three interceptions on consecutive first half possessions by their much maligned quarterback. I have been a vocal defender of Romo for the past few years, arguing that the criticism of him is based off a few occasional blunders magnified by the attention he receives in Dallas. But on Sunday he was the quarterback everyone else seems to think he is, a bumbling idiot who cost his team any chance of winning this game.

We’ve seen enough of Romo that I would normally caution against taking one game over the sample size of a full career, but after watching that game I have to wonder what we’ll see from him over the course of the season. He is as aware as anyone of just how terrible his defense is, and on Sunday it looked like he believed it was entirely up to him to match the points being rolled up against his team. He took risks that no quarterback should take, tried to force the ball downfield to produce quick scores rather than relying on his dangerous rushing attack. The Dallas defense isn’t going to get better this season, and unless Romo undergoes a radical shift in attitude, he is going to continue to make mistakes like he did this weekend.

Panic Meter: 6/10

Jacksonville Jaguars

Is this the best we can hope for?

Over the first half of this game, everything that could have broken right for the Jaguars did. They forced three turnovers from an Eagles team that rarely committed any last season. An undrafted rookie wide receiver stepped up to have over one hundred yards and two touchdowns. They built a 17-0 lead over a team they were 10.5 point underdogs to, but they couldn’t even manage to cover the spread by the end of the game.

The Jaguars didn’t come into this season with much in the way of hope, but in the early parts of this game they gave their fans plenty to dream about. A revamped defense that takes the ball away from the other team. An offense with legitimate weapons on the outside who they don’t have to worry about being arrested for drunk driving at 10 am. For the first half it looked like the Jaguars were capable of competing with anyone in the NFL, before cruel reality set in. The Eagles stormed back and won 34-17, shutting the Jaguars out after that explosive first sixteen minutes.

And now Jaguars fans have to ask themselves what hope they can possibly have if they can’t even win a game in which they get all the early breaks. If they’re spotted a 17 point lead and can’t hold on, how can they win a game on a more even footing? There is some validity to these concerns, but mostly they’re just the pessimism of a team that has suffered a disappointing loss. If things had been reversed and the Jaguars allowed 34 points before scoring 17 in garbage time, that wouldn’t suggest anything different about this team. But there is very little more disheartening than a game that builds hope before tearing it away. The Jaguars are the same team we thought they were a week ago, a team not ready to compete with competition like Philadelphia. The brief breath of hope was simply an illusion, something Jaguars fans would be better forgetting.

Panic Meter: 1/10

Pittsburgh Steelers

Heart of the Defense

Of all the teams to win this weekend, none came out feeling worse about their victory than Pittsburgh. The Steelers built up a 27-3 lead at halftime before completely falling apart in the second half, needing a last second field goal to beat the Brown 30-27. Their offense was utterly ineffective after halftime, crippled by penalties and a lack of pass protection. But more troubling was on the defensive side of the ball where, after managing only 101 yards in the first half, the Browns marched down the field to score on their first four drives after halftime. They did this on the back of rookie running back Terrence West, who gained 100 yards on sixteen carries by plunging straight at Pittsburgh’s defense. They also moved the ball effectively through the air, primarily with routes in the middle of the field just in front of the safeties. Pittsburgh could not stop Cleveland for most of the second half, and they were fortunate to escape with a victory.

The problems Pittsburgh had on defense were the same they faced last year. Casey Hampton is long gone, and they no longer have anyone stout enough to hold up in the middle. Their defensive ends are being asked to penetrate more, which opens up running lanes that weren’t there in the past. They need their linebackers to step up to fill these holes, and right now that isn't happening. Their linebackers aren’t filling well enough against the run, and they aren’t dropping back well enough against the pass.

To Pittsburgh’s credit, they were aware of these problems during the offseason and made some effort to fix them. Their first two draft picks were on the defensive side of the ball, linebacker Ryan Shazier and defensive end Stephan Tuitt. Shazier started on Sunday and played fairly well, and he will only improve as the season wears on. Tuitt will contribute as well, hopefully providing a stouter force against the run opposite star defensive end Cameron Heyward. This defense has holes, but it also has young players capable of stepping up and filling these holes. It may take some time, but their defense will get back on track.

Panic Meter: 4/10

Kansas City Chiefs

Offensive Line

We all knew Kansas City’s offensive line would be bad coming into last weekend, but no one expected it could be this bad. Alex Smith was pressured 17 times, leading to three interceptions from a quarterback whose only real skill is his ability to protect the football. Even more concerning, Jamaal Charles was effectively neutralized by the incompetence of the line in front of him. He carried the ball seven times for 19 yards and only managed 15 yards on four receptions. Their offense looked nearly as bad as Tampa Bay’s and St Louis’s, against a Titans defense that was near the bottom of the league last season and undergoing a drastic change in scheme.

I’m not optimistic about this team, but there is some reason to believe that things might get better. Right tackle Donald Stephenson missed the game because of a suspension, but he will be back after only three more games. Last year’s top pick Eric Fisher hasn’t shown much progress in his short career, but they still have to hope he’ll develop into a high quality player. But these are hopes pinned on uncertainties, on players who have never shown the ability to play at a high level. Even if things are better than they were this week, they will still be a well below average unit.

Panic Meter: 7/10

New England Patriots

Tom Brady

I spent most of last year and much of this offseason wondering about the future of Brady, and the results of the first game certainly showed the validity of my concerns. After a strong first half that gave the Patriots a 20-10 lead, Brady was terrible down the stretch, faltering under pressure and allowing the Dolphins to come back to earn a 33-20 victory. Even with the strong first half Brady was statistically one of the worst quarterbacks of the weekend, and his struggles are a big part of the reason why the Patriots are alone in last place in the AFC East for the first time in his career.

So you would think that with everything I had said this offseason, I would be ramping up the panic. And while I think this is definitely something worth watching, I’m not quite ready to dismiss Brady and the Patriots yet. His numbers this game were bad—two incompletions short of a career high and his lowest yards per attempt since 2006—but they don’t tell the whole story. His offensive line is a mess right now, but it should improve as the season wears on. And even if it doesn’t, he won’t perform as abysmally as he did this past Sunday. Even if he’s not what he used to be, he isn’t the quarterback he was against the Dolphins either. He’s somewhere in the middle, and that should still be enough for the Patriots to win their division.

Panic Meter: 3/10