The first two weeks of the NFL
season have come and gone, and there has been plenty to talk about. The Bills
have put together two very solid wins and now sit alone atop the AFC East. The
Saints have struggled through two defeats on the road, showing no signs of the
defensive improvement I expected (not the last thing I’ll be wrong about this
year.) These first two weeks have seemingly produced as many wonderful moments
as entire previous season, from the ludicrous…
…to the painful…
…to the predictable…
…to the physically perplexing…
…to the downright hilarious.
We’ve seen a lot over the first
few weeks, but there’s one thing we haven’t seen: a pass completion by a first
round draft pick. For the first time since 2007 there was no first round
quarterback starting in Week One, and through the second week only Johnny
Manziel has even seen the field. We’ve had plenty of glimpses of Blake Bortles
and Teddy Bridgewater standing on the sidelines, but fans are starting to wonder
how long it will be before we can finally see them on the field. After all,
second round pick Derek Carr has started both games for the Raiders, and he has
been a tremendous bright spot for them. (Not really, but he’s shown some
competence while his teammates bumble around him like dying seals.)
All three will most likely remain
on the bench for the next week, but it’s not because of any particular
competence from the quarterbacks ahead of them. Below I’ve posted a chart put
together by Chase Stuart of Football Perspective ranking the performances of
every quarterback who saw action this weekend (not including Monday Night’s
game, sorry) on a per attempt basis. Both Hoyer and Manziel’s lonely pass
attempt sit right around the league average. Chad Henne and Matt
Cassel can be found in the bottom three, sandwiched around Matt Ryan (whose
performance this weekend might mean I was as wrong about Cincinnati’s
defense as I was about New Orleans’s.)
Henne was wretched this weekend, but Cassel
blew all other quarterbacks out of the water. By these rankings Cassel’s performance against the Patriots would have been
the third worst of 2013, ahead of only EJ Manuel against the
Buccaneers and Blaine Gabbert against the Chiefs. That is a stunning level of
incompetence, and it still doesn’t look like it will be enough for him to lose
his job. So when are we finally going to see these quarterbacks take the field?
What will it take for these dismal veterans to finally fade into oblivion?
Blake Bortles
Well, Jacksonville, the first half of Week One was
pretty great, wasn’t it? It’s just too bad that you have to play another 31
halves the rest of the year. Because since taking a 17-0 lead over the Eagles,
the Jaguars have been far and away the worst team in the league, somehow even
more dreadful than the Raiders. They were torn apart by Nick Foles playing as
badly as he has played in his career, and they fared even worse against the
turnover machine that is Kirk Cousins this week. Receivers are running wide
open through their secondary. Their offensive line is turning around and
watching as pass rushers swarm their backfield. And Toby Gerhart is somehow
turning this into a two yard carry.
Henne has not been put in a position to
succeed, but that does not excuse how terrible his performance has been. No
one in their right mind can still believe he is a capable NFL starter, and even
a raw, inexperienced passer like Bortles has to be a better option at this
point. If the coaches were just doing what is best for their team as a whole—as
often is claimed when playing a veteran over a rookie—they would put Bortles on
the field as soon as possible knowing that they aren’t going to be winning very
many games with their current option under center.
But this is a case of rookie
quarterbacks, and what is best for the team isn’t the only thing that matters.
The long term has to be considered, and they have to do what is best for the
development of the player they drafted to be the future of their franchise.
I’ve made my opinion very clear on this
subject. I think that the best way for someone to develop as a quarterback is
to play as a quarterback, and I don’t buy into the theory that growth can be
stunted by early career struggles. The only exception I can see for this is
David Carr, who was clearly affected by the pressure he received early in his
career. But this is an extreme example, a player responsible for two of the
three highest sack total seasons in NFL history. Even bad offensive lines can
give their quarterbacks enough protection on most plays to prevent scarring him
in such a manner.
Normally I would insist on
Bortles going on the field right away, but we only need to look at the chart I
posted above to see a glaring reason why he should remain on the bench. Henne was
sacked ten times this past weekend, more than twice the number suffered by any
quarterback other than Cassel. This is an insane
number of sacks. Even David Carr never had to endure ten sacks in one game. Jacksonville’s offensive line may just be every bit as
terrible as the one that failed to protect Carr in Houston. If there is a situation in the NFL
that could scar a quarterback for the rest of his career, this is it.
I’m not sure what I would do if I
was in charge of this team. Bortles is a large, athletic quarterback who is
built to weather pressure, but it is difficult to justify putting anyone behind
such atrocious protection. This uncertainty makes it even more difficult to try
to figure out when he will finally see the field. They face Indianapolis
and San Diego
in the next two weeks, both of which are difficult matchups the Jaguars are
likely to lose. But both teams also struggle to create pressure on the
quarterback, and it wouldn’t be a mistake to put Bortles in if the
team struggles. They still might want to wait until after their Week Five game
against Pittsburgh.
The Steelers aren’t what they used to be defensively, but they still run a
complex and confusing scheme that has traditionally torn apart rookie
quarterbacks.
If I had to put money on a
specific week, I would expect to see Bortles in Week Seven against the Browns.
The Jaguars will likely be 0-6 or 1-5 headed into this game, and pressure from
fans and ownership will be too much for even the most stubborn coaches to
handle. This is a good matchup for Bortles to start off with, a home game
against a team that might actually be bad enough for Jacksonville to beat. Of all these
projections this is the one I am least confident about, but I think this is the
game that makes the most sense.
Johnny Manziel
Manziel is the only first round
quarterback to have seen the field so far, not that he did anything
particularly notable. He handed the ball off a couple times before throwing his
first career pass, a checkdown that was dropped by his fullback. Meanwhile, the
actual starter for the Browns remains Brian Hoyer, an option perhaps even more
uninspiring than Henne or Cassel. The Browns
have gone 1-1 since he became the starter—including an impressive win over New
Orleans—but nothing he has done so far has been particularly impressive. He
hasn’t been as bad as either of the other veterans starting ahead of rookies,
but he still has done nothing in his career to show he can be anything better
than an average starting quarterback.
For some teams an average
quarterback might be enough. Surrounded by proper talent, I think Hoyer could
lead a team to the playoffs. But Cleveland
doesn’t have that sort of talent on offense, not with two rookies trading off
time at running back and a wide receiving corps littered with castoffs from
around the league. They lack playmakers on the offensive side of the ball, and
Hoyer certainly isn’t going to help that problem. Manziel still has a lot of issues he has to fix if he wants to become
a successful NFL quarterback, but it is impossible to deny his playmaking
abilities. He can create something from nothing in a way that Hoyer simply
can’t.
Cleveland is in an awkward position right now
because it isn’t clear what their objectives for this season are. Of
course every team wants to make the playoffs, but some (like Jacksonville) understand internally
that this isn’t a realistic possibility. Cleveland’s GM and coaching staff are
in their first season, so no one is under any pressure to make the playoffs to
keep their jobs (unlike in Minnesota, which I’ll address below.) This team is
not very good, and they have no reason to sell out for a playoff spot this
season. But in the weak AFC, it might just be possible for an 8-8 team to snag
the final Wild Card slot. That sort of opportunity is enticing, especially for
a franchise that has only made the postseason once in their newest incarnation.
Even a first round exit would be considered a wild success in Cleveland, and it would buy their coaching
staff and management good will for the next two or three seasons.
Brian Hoyer can’t get this team
to the playoffs. Johnny Manziel might be able to. With one of the better
offensive lines in the league the risk of putting him out there is small. The
only concern would be that immediate success might reinforce some of his bad
habits, but with proper coaching they can find a way to use Manziel
while still teaching him to refine his game. Adding a dangerous playmaker to
their offense could be the spark they need to get over the hump. It could also
be an unmitigated disaster, but there is no real loss if Manziel fails this
season. Missing the playoffs by two games with Hoyer isn’t any different from
missing it by five games with Manziel. As soon as they get the opportunity, the
Browns should turn to their rookie quarterback.
So when will they bring him in?
The victory over New Orleans
bought Hoyer some time, even though he wasn’t particularly impressive during
the game. This week against Baltimore
may not go as well, but I still think they will need two bad games back to back
to justify naming Manziel the starter. After the Ravens they get the Titans and
the Steelers. I don’t think they’ll shy away from using Manziel against Pittsburgh if they feel
it’s necessary, but I still think they’ll hold out until Week Seven, when they
play the Jaguars.
(Yes, I think there’s a good
chance that Manziel and Bortles debut on the same day on the same field. Would
probably increase the viewership of this game tenfold.)
There is another scenario that
needs considered. Say the Browns do surprisingly well over their next three
games, winning one or two and staying competitive in the others. They will likely still
use Manziel as an occasional package in these games, and if he struggles it could
give them more reason to hold him on the bench. If Hoyer can make it through
the next three weeks without losing his job, there is a decent chance we could
go most of the season without seeing Manziel. After the Pittsburgh game the Browns have a stretch of
the Jaguars, Raiders, and Buccaneers, three games they could easily win. That
would shove them right into the middle of the playoff race and would give Hoyer
a cushion before facing the gauntlet of Cincinnati,
Houston, and Atlanta. I still think it is highly unlikely
that Hoyer lasts through the season, but there is a chance that we don’t see
Manziel as the starter until Week Thirteen against the Bills.
Teddy Bridgewater
At last we get to Teddy, the
quarterback who likely should already be starting for his team. He was the most
NFL ready of any of these quarterbacks coming out of college, and he showed it
during an impressive preseason. He only failed to grab the job due to unusual
competence from Cassel during the preseason,
and everyone understood that this was a temporary matter. Sooner or later Bridgewater will take
over as the starting quarterback for the Vikings, and I’m starting to suspect
that it is going to be sooner.
Only the most hopelessly
oblivious Vikings fans harbored hope that Cassel
would be a reliable option coming into this season. We all knew what we were
going to see from him, though none of us expected it to be quite as bad as the
game against the Patriots. He threw four interceptions, constantly forcing the
ball to covered receivers and failing to attack the defense over the top. Since
ESPN began tracking this data in 2006, Cassel
is the first quarterback to start in both Week One and Week Two without
completing at least two passes ten or more yards downfield. He is 1-11 so far on
such attempts, a success rate that would shock even Christian Ponder. No one
has any faith in Cassel anymore, and the fans
are starting to grow restless for the arrival of their first round pick.
Minnesota’s
situation differs from Cleveland’s and Jacksonville’s in that
there is actually something on the line. General manager Rick Spielman barely
made it through last season with his job, and it’s been very clear from the
moment Leslie Frazier was fired that his future with the team would swing on
the progress made this season. His seat only became hotter with the lawsuit
filed by Chris Kluwe this offseason, and I think there’s a good chance that his fate was sealed with the botched handling of the Adrian Peterson
situation this past week. More than anyone else he made himself the face of the
team during their ill fated attempts to mete out punishment, and
he is the perfect fall guy if the heat doesn't die down.
The loss of their best offensive
player won’t help Bridgewater
when he finally takes over as the starter, but it might hasten
his arrival. The Vikings need some way to change topics from the Peterson
situation, something to fire up a dispirited fan base. More importantly,
Spielman needs something to use in his defense when it comes time for his
evaluation at the end of the year. Nothing saves a GM like a successful
quarterback draft pick, and nothing makes fans forget about everything else
like a promising young star stepping onto the field for the first time.
When the season began I expected
to see Bridgewater
take over in Week Six against the Lions. The Vikings will be coming off a long
week after a Thursday night game against the Packers, and it will be in front
of a home crowd against a questionable defense. But with everything that has
happened I’m going to move up my projection. The Vikings play the Saints in New Orleans this weekend,
facing down a much better team desperate for a win. This will not end well for
them, and it will (barring injury) likely be the last game Cassel
starts this season. In Week Four against Atlanta I
think Bridgewater
will make his anticipated debut.
As I
referenced above, Cassel was the only
quarterback to be sacked even half as many times as Henne, brought down six
times by a mildly above average Patriots pass rush. Minnesota’s offensive line looked terrible
in that game, but I don’t think that was a true representation of what they
will be. In Week One against St Louis—one
of the best pass rushes in the league—they surrendered only a single sack. The absence of Peterson
will no doubt make it easier for teams to rush the passer, but I don’t think
their line is bad enough to hinder Bridgewater’s
development. In any case, it shouldn’t matter in the game
against Atlanta.
The Falcons have not managed a single sack through the first two weeks, the
first team since 2009 to do this. There is no safer opportunity for Bridgewater to make his debut, and he should have a nice, easy day in the pocket if the team turns to him for the game against the Falcons.
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