2014 Final Preview

I’ve gone through each division team by team, and now it’s time to bring it all together for a complete NFL preview. Yes, I am aware that the NFL season has already started, but nothing that happened on Thursday has changed any of these projections (most of this was actually written before the game.) Below is what I think will happen, but since I can’t predict the future, I can’t offer you any guarantees. Football is probably the most random sport, and anything could conceivably happen over the course of the season.

AFC Playoffs

1)      Denver Broncos

2)      New England Patriots

3)      Indianapolis Colts

4)      Pittsburgh Steelers

5)      Baltimore Ravens

6)      Miami Dolphins

Denver, New England, and Indianapolis are playoff teams in pretty much everyone’s mind. Denver remains the top team, having only gotten better this offseason as they revamped their defense. Indianapolis will fall back some—giving the Patriots a clear road to the two seed—but there isn’t much in the AFC South to challenge them. I’ve mixed things up in the AFC North, dropping the Bengals out for the first time in three years. I think this is a team ready to regress, with an aging defense and an offense that isn’t capable of keeping up with the top units in the league. It will be a tight three way race for the division and one of the wild card spots, but in the end I think the Bengals will be the team stuck on the outside looking in.

The final spot is tough, because there genuinely aren’t six teams in the AFC worth making the playoffs. The Chargers are going to fall off some as their offense comes back to earth after unsustainable success last year, but they still might be able to slip into the playoffs anyone. Houston could make a run, but I think they will struggle to score the ball early in the season, enough to doom any playoff hopes. The AFC North could end up grabbing this spot as well, but I think it will be the Dolphins who end up slipping into the postseason. They were so close last season, needing to win only one of their final two games to make the playoffs. Their team has made slight improvements this offseason, and I think there is still hope that Ryan Tannehill could turn into a solid quarterback.

NFC Playoffs

1)      New Orleans Saints

2)      Green Bay Packers

3)      Seattle Seahawks

4)      Philadelphia Eagles

5)      San Francisco 49ers

6)      Chicago Bears

The first five are easy. These five teams made the playoffs last year, and they will make the playoffs again this year. They are the class of the conference, and all five can compete for a Super Bowl. I went with New Orleans as the top seed because they will have the most to play for, with a home field advantage that is as strong as any team’s in the league. They also will face slightly weaker competition than teams like the Packers and the Seahawks, without anyone in their division truly capable of challenging them. I slid Seattle down to a three seed because of their schedule and because I expect a small hangover from their Super Bowl season. They’ll still win the division over San Francisco, who will have their own early season struggles as they adjust to a more pass happy offense.

The final wild card spot is where it gets really interesting. This is a wide open position, with the main contenders being the Bears, Falcons, Redskins, and Cardinals. I think the Bears are the clear favorites, provided they can stay healthy. If they falter, any of the other teams has the opportunity to step up and grab the spot. Arizona might be the best of these teams, but their schedule is brutal enough (two against Seattle and San Francisco, plus San Diego, Denver, Philadelphia, and Atlanta) that they will struggle to keep pace. The Redskins are a team with a decent shot to sneak in, provided RGIII improves and their defense isn’t among the worst in the league (a big, big if.)

First Overall Pick – Oakland Raiders

The past few years the first overall selection has gone to a team no one expected. Even with Peyton Manning’s injury, no one thought the Colts would only win two games. Kansas City had a roster loaded with talent before they fell apart, and Houston was expected to be a playoff contender before the nightmare of last season. Oftentimes you see a team that expects to compete suffer through early season failures, at which point they utterly give up on the season and fall below less talented teams.

That won’t happen this year. The Raiders were one of the worst teams in the league last year, winning only four games against an absurdly easy slate of opponents. Not only is their schedule more difficult this year, their team is actually worse. They lost their best player Lamarr Houston to free agency, and they are somehow facing even more uncertainty at quarterback. It doesn’t look like they’ll get much (if any) contribution from 2013 first round pick DJ Hayden, and rookie Khalil Mack will likely spend most of the year dropping into coverage rather than rushing the passer. They have to play two games against Denver, two against San Diego, one each against Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona, and New England. This is one of the worst teams the NFL has seen in years, and they will be lucky to win three games.

Guaranteed Misses

You remember above where I said there wouldn’t be any guarantees? Well, I lied. Here are three teams in each conference I guarantee will not make the playoffs

AFC:

Oakland Raiders

Did you see above where I said they’d get the first overall selection? Enough said.

Buffalo Bills

This isn’t a bad team, but I see very little upside. Their defense last year was as good as it could possibly be, and their offense doesn’t look like it will take much of a step forward. For them to make the playoffs EJ Manuel would have to perform at a level he’s never shown in either college or the NFL. With Sammy Watkins facing injury concerns, it only seems more likely they’ll end up the same exact place they’ve been the past decade.

Kansas City Chiefs

This one’s a bit of a risk, considering they were a playoff team a year ago. But they backed into the postseason against one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, and their team has gotten markedly worse since then. They still don’t have anything at wide receiver, they lost their three best offensive linemen to free agency, and Alex Smith is not enough to carry an offense. Jamaal Charles is about the only thing they have going for themselves, and he’ll struggle this year behind a miserable offensive line.

NFC:

St Louis Rams

The sad thing is, every team I’m listing for the NFC could very easily be a playoff team in the AFC. There is a lot to like about St Louis’s roster, especially their defensive line. It’s unfortunate that the offense will hold back this team, likely precluding Robert Quinn from winning Defensive Player of the Year (which he should have won last year.) I just can’t see them competing for a wild ward spot with their offense and their schedule, even more brutal than Arizona’s, which I discussed above.

Carolina Panthers

Projections have been harsh on Carolina this entire offseason, to the point that I think they’re starting to go too far. This team still has the same front six that was so dominant last year, and it isn’t as if their wide receiver group and offensive line were great before their losses this offseason. But even if they’re better than most people seem to think, they still can’t make the playoffs. The turnover in their secondary is too much to support a reliable pass defense, and a banged up Cam Newton just doesn’t have enough to work with on offense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This one is hard, hard enough that I’m almost considering removing the “guarantee” tag. But I said three teams from each conference, and I’m going to hold myself to that. There are teams in the NFC that will probably be worse than Tampa Bay (Detroit and New York come to mind) but these teams have high upside that could let them sneak into the final wild card spot. I don’t see that out of Tampa Bay, a good team that will be crippled by their quarterback position. Their defense will be one of the best in the league and they have plenty of intriguing skill talent on offense, but I can’t see Josh McCown leading a team to the playoffs.

Coaches Fired

Mike Smith, Atlanta Falcons

This one’s simple. If the Falcons miss the playoffs Smith is gone, and I don’t have the Falcons projected to make the playoffs. For years he received criticism for his failure to get Atlanta over the hump, and when he finally managed to win a playoff game the team fell apart the next year. Their were rumors that he’d be fired at the end of last season, and while it was a smart move to bring him back, the Falcons are right not to give him much leeway this season.

Tom Coughlin, New York Giants

Let me make this clear: I don’t think Coughlin will be fired. But I don’t think he’ll be coaching the Giants next year, whether by his choice or the management’s. This team has fallen off, and they need a fresh start with fresh players and fresh coaches. Unless they pull out a miraculous playoff berth this year, the ownership will see the necessity of moving on from Coughlin and will talk him into retirement.

Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys

Predicting Jerry Jones is almost impossible. Garrett’s been on the hot seat seemingly since he was hired, and year after year of mediocre results haven’t pushed him out. For the first time in his tenure he has a team that is genuinely not talented enough to make the playoffs, yet this will probably be the season that does him in. Even the best coaching job of his career probably won’t be enough to save his neck, though with Jerry Jones in charge anything is possible.

Jeff Fisher, St Louis Rams

This is a strange situation, because I think the injury to Sam Bradford may save Fisher’s job. I don’t think their season will turn out all that different with Shaun Hill at quarterback than it would have with Bradford under center, but I think it’s an argument that Fisher might use to save his neck. Of course, that may mean having to bring back Bradford for another wasted season, but Fisher hasn’t lasted this long by diving on grenades. The Rams would be better off clearing house at the end of the season and starting with a new coach and quarterback.

Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals

There are six head coaches active in the NFL who have been with their team since before 2008: Bill Belichick, Tom Coughlin, Mike McCarthy, Sean Payton, Mike Tomlin, and Marvin Lewis. Five of these coaches have Super Bowl titles, and the other has never won a playoff game. Lewis has made it through the past three seasons by just getting to the playoffs, but the next time the Bengals fail to make the postseason, he’s gone. Since I don’t have them making the playoffs this year, I think they’ll be hiring a new coach for next year.

Dennis Allen, Oakland Raiders

This isn’t fair. I actually think Allen has done a fine job with what he’s been given in Oakland, but I don’t see him surviving past this year. This team just isn’t set up to win more than four games, and the blame is going to fall unfairly on him. GM Reggie McKenzie will likely lost his job as well, and the Raiders will have to start over from the ground again next year.

Rex Ryan, New York Jets

At this point last year I didn’t expect Ryan to make it through the season, so take everything else I’ve said with a grain of salt. The Jets did better than expected last season, winning half their games and sniffing the edges of playoff contention. That won’t be enough this year, as fans are expecting them to take a step forward. Their defense will still be good (as all defenses under Ryan are,) but their consistent struggles to find offensive success will eventually come around to Ryan, costing him his job.

Doug Marrone, Buffalo Bills

This is probably the most obvious name on this list, and it’s the one I think will probably not make it through the season. This is only Marrone’s second season with the team, so they might be willing to give him one more year to figure things out if they still can’t make any progress. But with the reports currently circling about the issues in the inner workings of this team, and with a season of disappointing losses and no draft pick to look forward to, I think it won’t take long for him to be sent on his way. He might survive until the new owners take over, but I think whoever buys the team will want to start over fresh.

Mike Pettine, Cleveland Browns

Just kidding. But maybe not. After all, Cleveland has gone through as many coaches in the past four years as the Steelers have gone through in the past 45.

Awards

Offensive Rookie of the Year: WR Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints

This is a tricky award to predict for one simple reason: quarterbacks. If a quarterback performs at even a slightly above average level, he will win this award (as evidenced by Sam Bradford’s victory in 2010.) But right now the only rookie quarterback starting is Derek Carr, and I doubt he can stay healthy/productive the entire season. The best bet would be Teddy Bridgewater, a pro ready quarterback surrounded by talent. But he likely won’t see the field until sometime near the middle of the season. I wouldn’t be stunned to see a late season push from him, but I think it will likely be too little too late.

Instead I’ll go with Cooks, who will be an exciting and productive member of one of the NFL’s best offenses on one of the NFL’s best teams. The talent around him will allow him to be more productive and earn more attention than rookies like Bishop Sankey or Sammy Watkins, and the success of his team will put him over the top. Sean Payton will certainly know how to take advantage of his talents, and Drew Brees will love having a player with this sort of versatility to throw the ball to.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: ILB Ryan Shazier, Pittsburgh Steelers

Nine of the past eleven winners of this award have been linebackers. It’s a position with a relatively simple transition from college to the NFL, and players at this position accumulate a lot of stats that voters like to see. Shazier will pile up stats like no one else, using his speed to make plays in parts of the field other linebackers simply cannot reach. He’ll be near the league lead in tackles, and he’ll add a few interceptions and sacks to the mix. He will struggle some when teams try to run straight at him, but as a backside pursuer he will be a major factor in the improvement of Pittsburgh’s defense.

Comeback Player of the Year: DT Geno Atkins, Cincinnati Bengals

I don’t know what to make of this award, since no one seems to agree on what defines a “comeback player.” Is it just someone who was injured last year, like Atkins or Julio Jones? Or could it be someone who had a down season but is ready to bounce back, like Robert Griffin III? Is someone like Aaron Rodgers a viable candidate, even though he technically came back at the end of last year? I’ll go with Atkins, because of the numerous players who went down to season ending injuries last year, he was probably the best. He’ll be back to his normal self this year, as the best pass rushing defensive tackle in the league.

Coach of the Year: Sean Payton

This award is stupid, and predicting it is even stupider. Every year it goes to the coach of whichever team appears to improve the most, regardless of how much the coach did to help his team. This is an award all about storylines over performance, because coaching performance is almost impossible to measure. So when I pick Payton, I do so with a combination of wishful thinking and recognition of reality. He is a very good coach, I’d say one of the best three in the league alongside Bill Belichick and Jim Harbaugh. He also has narrative on his side, everyone in the media still feeling a bit bad for him after his year long suspension. If the Saints grab the one seed and no team makes a stunning worst to first improvement, he will probably take home the award.

Offensive Player of the Year: QB Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos

Barring the occasional record setting season by a quarterback, this has become an award intended to recognize the best non-MVP offensive player. Drew Brees has won it twice for seasons in which he was great-but-not-as-great-as-Manning-or-Rodgers. Chris Johnson won it the year he went for 2000 yards, and Manning won it the year Adrian Peterson went for 2000 yards. Hell, the year Manning and Steve McNair shared the MVP, neither won offensive player of the year. It went to Jamal Lewis who, incidentally, ran for 2000 yards. I say the award goes to Manning this year, as a sort of guilty acknowledgement of another great season by voters who are sick of giving him the MVP.

Defensive Player of the Year: S Kenny Vaccaro, New Orleans Saints

This one is way out on a limb. There are plenty of usual suspects who could claim this. JJ Watt  and Robert Quinn will be as dominant as ever, but people will still (stupidly) hold it against them that their teams didn’t make the playoffs. Von Miller has a chance on a rejuvenated Broncos defense, but the success of their offense will distract people from his side of the ball. I think there is a strong chance that Patrick Willis can clinch the award for the first time in his career. He has always been considered one of the best defenders in the league, and for much of this season he will be forced to carry the defense on his own with the absences of Aldon Smith and Navarro Bowman. But I’ll take a risk here and go with Vaccaro.

The past two seasons this award has gone to a second year player who made a significant leap from a successful rookie year. JJ Watt won it in 2012 when he started eating planets, and Luke Keuchly was given the award last year after Carolina’s surprising defensive emergence. I think something similar will happen with Vaccaro, one of the better rookies to come out of the 2013 draft. New Orleans will be the best team in the NFC, in large part due to improvements on defense that began last year with the emergence of Cameron Jordan. With Jairus Byrd added to man the deep middle Rob Ryan will have tremendous freedom to send Vaccaro zipping around the field in a role similar to a young Troy Polamalu. He will accumulate a lot of tackles, force a few fumbles, and grab several interceptions as the Saints improve to an above average defense. 

MVP: QB Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

I expect Manning, Rodgers, and Brees to have roughly equivalent seasons, so this award will ultimately come down to how the voters are feeling. After giving the award to Manning five times they will likely be sick of him, and he will be measured unfairly against the standard he set last season. Rodgers has a shot as well, but he will be hurt by the fact that his team finishes behind the Saints in the conference. It also won’t help that there will be people saying profoundly stupid things like, “The Packers made the playoffs last year with Scott Tolzien and Matt Flynn at quarterback.” Yes, there are some very stupid people in the world, and yes, some of them actually have a say in these awards.

I think it will go to Brees because he will make the best story. Of the three he is the only one without an MVP already, and the voters will want to reward him for a career of excellent work. It will help that his team is likely the best in the NFC, and that he has prime time games against the Cowboys, Packers, and Bears to put up some impressive performances in front of the entire league. With Cooks and Jimmy Graham manning the slot he will have plenty of easy passes available to him, with lots of yards added after the catch to bolster his numbers and make him the MVP.

Super Bowl

Broncos over Saints

Call me predictable for picking my top two seeds to face off in the Super Bowl. I don’t care. These are the two teams that went all in on a championship this season, and these are the two best teams in the NFL. Both are known for their offense but boast quietly strong defenses. Both are led by veteran quarterbacks with championship experience, both of whom are aching to get a second title to shut up those idiots who measure quarterbacks by Super Bowl victories. Both will benefit greatly from home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and I don’t think either will have much trouble rolling through the first two playoff games before reaching the Super Bowl.

For the game itself I’m picking Denver primarily because of their advantage on defense. They were incapable of stopping the Seahawks in this game last year, but that was with a completely different defense. Only four of their current starters played in last year’s Super Bowl, and they have improved at almost every position. The one thing that could keep New Orleans in the game is the advantage at head coach, but I don’t think that is enough to make up for Denver’s superiority at essentially every position. The Broncos were a Super Bowl team last year with a defense that was merely average before it lost most of its best players. This year they will have one of the ten best defenses in the league, and they should be the heavy favorites to win the Super Bowl.