AFC West Preview

Last year the AFC West was the only division to produce three playoff teams, sending Denver to the Super Bowl while Kansas City and San Diego bowed out in the Wild Card and Divisional Rounds respectively. I don't want to spoil the rest of this post, but I think it is highly unlikely that they find the same success this year. The top of the division is still excellent, but there are plenty of questionmarks from the teams below.

Denver Broncos

Reason to be excited: Reloaded Defense

Here is a staggering fact: of the current eleven starters on Denver’s defense, only four of them played in the Super Bowl against Seattle. You know, the last game Denver played. They have made across the board improvements to their defense through free agent signings and players returning from injury. Derek Wolfe is back to replace Malik Jackson. DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller will be their edge rushers, replacing Shaun Phillips and Wesley Woodyard. Their secondary is new at every position, with Rahim Moore and Chris Harris returning from injury and TJ Ward and Aqib Talib brought in as high profile free agents. Denver made the Super Bowl last year with a banged up and below average defense. Even if their offense doesn’t perform at the same absurd level this season, their defense is good enough to carry them deep into the playoffs on its own.

Reason to be nervous: The Ticking Clock

I shouldn’t need to say this, but winning a Super Bowl is very, very hard. It requires both talent and good fortune, and oftentimes even a single bad break can ruin a season. When this happens the only thing a team can do is shrug their shoulders and move on to the next season. Denver doesn’t have this luxury. They have built their team around an aging core, throwing everything onto the table for the next season or two. This year can only be considered a success with a Super Bowl victory, because if they come up short again they may not get another chance.

Impact Rookie: Cody Latimer

If a player is an eligible receiver on the field, Peyton Manning is going to throw to him. Last year the Broncos had five players with sixty receptions and four players with double digit receiving touchdowns. They lost Eric Decker and Knowshon Moreno to free agency, and with Wes Welker’s concussion issues it appears highly likely that Latimer will see plenty of playing time as their third or their fourth wide receiver. Latimer was one of the second tier receiver prospects in last year’s draft, a name many thought might sneak into the first round due to his size and speed. Instead he fell far enough that the Broncos were able to move up and grab him late in the second round. In this offense he should have no trouble putting up excellent stats, perhaps even enough to get him into the conversation for rookie of the year.

Player to Watch: Ryan Clady

Denver had the best offense in NFL history last year, and they did it with their second best player on that side of the ball missing the entire season. Clady has been an All Pro caliber player since he entered the league, excelling at swallowing pass rushers coming at the quarterback’s blind side. Manning is a master of making the best out of his offensive line, and he posted the lowest sack rate in the league last season even with a backup at left tackle. Bringing Clady back will give him more time to work with, allowing him to pick apart holes in defenses that he couldn’t exploit last year. I don't want to dismiss the dominance of Seattle’s performance in the Super Bowl, but I think there’s a chance that game would have gone differently had Clady been available.

Prediction:

The Broncos are the best team in the AFC, and it would be a major disappointment if they fail to reach the Super Bowl. Winning the division should be no trouble at all, and the only way I see them not earning home field advantage is if Indianapolis takes major advantage of its cupcake schedule. Denver’s offense won’t perform at the same high level it did last season, but it will still likely be the best in the league, and with an improved defense they are the easy favorites to win the Super Bowl. But if they fall short of a championship again, the entire season was for nothing, as are the ensuing three seasons. This team has no long term future, and if they can’t win at least one Super Bowl with Manning around, they have thrown away the next few years for nothing.

San Diego Chargers

Reason to be excited: Receiving Corps

Philip Rivers had a remarkable resurgence last year, and he could be just as good this year thanks to the weapons he has on the outside. Keenan Allen was the best offensive rookie in the league last year, and I expect him to be even better this year, perhaps even a Pro Bowl candidate. They will be getting back Malcom Floyd (no, not Malcolm Floyd. That’s his older brother) after his season ending neck injury. Eddie Royal is one of the best third receivers in the NFL, and even though I’m not as high on Ladarius Green as everyone else, I think he is a solid fourth or fifth option in the receiving game. The Chargers had one of the more prolific offenses in the league last year, and their weapons will only be more dangerous this season.

Reason to be nervous: Gravity

Last season everything that could have gone right for the Chargers did go right, and they barely snuck into the playoffs. Their offensive line held together surprisingly well, Rivers had the best season of his career, and Ryan Mathews stayed healthy and productive through the end of the season. Some of these factors may repeat this season, but it is highly unlikely that all of them will. Parts of their team will fall back to earth, and they haven’t made the needed additions to compensate for this regression. Their defense is still terrible, and their offensive line is still patched together from a bunch of aging veterans and inexperienced youngsters. I don’t see any way this team can be better than it was last year, and a step backwards seems highly likely.

Impact Rookie: Jerry Attaochu

San Diego has been desperately searching for a pass rusher since the collapse of Shawne Merriman. They’ve spent first round picks on Larry English and Melvin Ingram, who have combined for thirteen sacks over seven seasons. They’ve brought in free agents Dwight Freeney and Jarret Johnson, who have struggled to stay on the field. At this point they will try anyone and anything to find a pass rush, and in their desperation they will likely turn to their second round pick Attaochu. I don’t know if he will be the answer they are searching for, but he will get every opportunity to show off whatever pass rushing abilities he possesses.

Player to Watch: Brandon Flowers

San Diego didn’t do much to improve their defense this offseason, but the one place they did add talent is at cornerback. They used their first round pick on Jason Verrett, and they signed Kansas City cast off Flowers as a free agent. Flowers has had a strange year, making his first career Pro Bowl despite having the worst season of his career. He was then released by the Chiefs for salary cap reasons and ended up signing with one of their division rivals. Flowers struggled last year when placed in Kansas City’s press man system, where his short stature proved problematic when he was asked to be physical with receivers. With the Chargers he will play in a system better suited to his talents, and he should be able to get back to the player he was two years ago. It won’t be enough to save this mess of a defense, but any help has to be appreciated in San Diego.

Prediction:

San Diego barely made the playoffs last year, and, as I addressed above, I don’t think they will be any better this year. But I still think they’ll be in contention for one of the Wild Card spots, primarily because the middle of the AFC is so atrocious. The Chargers are taking a step back, but so are most of the teams they are competing against. The only thing that could hold San Diego back is their schedule, a brutal lineup against the AFC East and the NFC West in addition to a pair of games against Denver. If they do make they playoffs they might have a chance to push for a deep run, but I think this is a team that needs a couple more years to rebuild their defense before they’re ready to play at a championship level.

Kansas City Chiefs

Reason to be excited: Jamaal Charles

I’m going to be honest here. I can think of very little for this team to be excited about, so I’m just tossing out the one player who is always exciting. Charles has been one of the best running backs in the league for several years, but last season he finally got the chance to show himself off as a full time feature back. He was the entire offense of a team that won eleven games last season, operating as their most dangerous receiving threat in addition to being their best runner. I expect him to struggle some this year, going up against defenses designed solely to stop him and behind one of the weakest offensive lines in the league. But he is still a playmaker like very few others in the league, and if this offense finds any success it will be because of him.

Reason to be nervous: Defensive Questions

Many people seem to have forgotten how Kansas City’s season went last year, so I think we need to do a quick refresher. They won their first nine games thanks to a dominant defense and an easy schedule, holding the opposition to 12 points per game. That’s the team that most people seem to be remembering heading into the season, not the team that won only two of their final eight while allowing 29 points per game. Some of their issues can be blamed on injuries, but the simple fact is that this defense was not very good by the time the season came to an end. They still have a lot of talent, and I expect them to bounce back somewhat. But they will not be the dominant force that carried the team through the first half of last season, and it is unlikely that they will be able to make the playoffs unless their offense steps up.

Impact Rookie: Zach Fulton

Kansas City will not get much of their first round pick Dee Ford until after Tamba Hali leaves this next offseason. He’ll contribute as a situational pass rusher, maybe collecting a few sacks along the way. They will get much more out of their sixth round pick Fulton, already slotted in as their starting right guard. This isn’t as much an endorsement of Fulton’s skills as an act of necessity, after losing their three best players from an already shaky offensive line during the offseason. The unit as a whole will be a mess this season, and I don’t expect Fulton will help this out. But he’ll at least see significant playing time, which is more than can be said about any of their other rookies.

Player to Watch: Dontari Poe

Poe started out last season as one of the most dynamic players in the league. He accumulated 3.5 sacks in his first two games, almost unheard of from a nose tackle. He was a major part of Kansas City’s early season success, and it looked like he was developing into one of the best defensive players in the NFL. But he cooled off quickly, managing only one sack in the final fourteen games as Kansas City’s defense slowly fell to pieces. He doesn’t have the injury excuse of Justin Houston, and double teams can only limit production so much. He is still a good player with lots of potential, but right now the Chiefs need him to be the player he was at the beginning of last season, the player who might have been just a flash in the pan.

Prediction:

Kansas City was a playoff team last year, but even in the weak AFC I don’t see that happening again. Their schedule this year is significantly harder, and their defense is no longer the suffocating force it was at the beginning of 2013. They will need their offense to step up if they want to make any sort of playoff run, and I don’t see that happening. For as long as Alex Smith remains at quarterback their offense will be too vanilla to win them more than a game here or there, and by the end of the season they will realize the folly of giving him a long term deal. They will likely end up with a top ten draft pick, and they will give serious consideration to drafting one of next year’s top quarterbacks.

Oakland Raiders

Reason to be excited: Khalil Mack

Oakland’s recent history with first round picks is borderline criminal. Of their past ten first round picks only three are currently on their roster. 2008 first round selection Darren McFadden resigned for essentially nothing after no one else in the league wanted him. Last year’s first round pick DJ Hayden struggled through injuries his rookie year and was just placed on the PUP list, meaning he’ll miss at least the first six weeks this year. And that leaves them with the only reason to be excited about this team: their first round pick from this year. I love Mack’s skill and talent, and I have no reason not to believe that he will be a future superstar. No reason except that he was drafted by the Raiders, which seems to be a fatal affliction for NFL careers. Hopefully he turns into a player for them to build around, rather than another name added to the list of Rolando McClain, Darrius Heyward-Bey, JaMarcus Russell, Michael Huff, Fabian Washington, and Robert Gallery.

Reason to be nervous: Everything Else

This is the worst roster in the NFL. It’s been that way for several years, and it will stay that way for the foreseeable future. Until this past offseason I could at least understand what they were doing. Al Davis had left them with so many bloated contracts that they needed several years to excise the wretchedness of their aging, overpaid veterans. But this offseason they had the most salary cap space in the league, a chance to make immediate improvements to their team. Instead they allowed their best two players to depart and established themselves as the one place no free agent wants to sign with the Rodger Saffold debacle. This team needs to immediately clean house, but instead they have decided to sign a bunch of worthless veterans that no one else wants anymore, the Charles Woodsons and Justin Tucks of the world. This team hasn’t made a good decision in ten years, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we are saying the same thing a decade from now.

Impact Rookie: Derek Carr

The actual answer is Mack, but I already covered him above. So I’ll go with Carr, the rookie quarterback who will see the field as the starter at some point this season. I don’t expect him to have a lot of success right away—partially due to the adjustment to NFL speed, partially due to the utter lack of talent around him—and I wouldn’t be surprised to see third stringer Matt McGloin start a few games this year also. But I think the majority of the time will belong to Carr, for better or for worse, to show whether they made a poor choice picking him in the second round. In 2010 Carolina used a second round pick on Jimmy Clausen before casting him aside and taking Cam Newton with the first overall selection in 2011. Carr isn’t as bad as Clausen, but I could see the Raiders following a similar track if he struggles.

Player to Watch: Marcel Reece

On a more notable team, Reece would be a folk hero. He is quite possibly the most versatile offensive player in the league, a former college wide receiver who converted to fullback when brought up to the NFL. He can catch passes out of the backfield, and he can throw blocks in the running game. He is also a fairly good ball carrier himself, as evidenced by his career 4.8 yards per carry average. If you have to watch a Raiders game (which I wouldn’t recommend) you could at least try to enjoy one of the more entertaining players in the league. And yes, it is very, very sad that Oakland’s most exciting player is their fullback.

Prediction:

The Raiders are a bad team, and they are going to be a bad team for a while longer. There is no reason to be hopeful for this season, and there is no reason to be hopeful for the long term future. The best case scenario is that Derek Carr takes the starting role and plays well, the defense manages competence with its patchwork quilt of veterans, and the team still manages to win only five games against the toughest schedule in the NFL. I haven’t been able to find anywhere to bet on which team will wind up with the first selection in the draft, but I would put serious money on the Raiders getting that slot. Even then, I’m sure they will screw up whatever draft pick they get. With the way this team has been managed over the past decade, I see no reason to expect them to turn things around anytime soon.