NFC East Preview

I'm halfway home on my NFL preview, and today I'm taking on the NFC East. The few of you who have read one of the previous divisions can skip over the italicized text. The rest of you probably can too.

I will break down each of these teams individually. I will start by listing reasons for this team to be excited and then reasons for them to be nervous, looking at the possible upsides and potential downsides of these rosters. I will then identify the rookie from their draft class who I think will make the most immediate impact. This doesn’t mean that I think these rookies will have the best long term careers, just that they will contribute the most this season. I will then identify one player to watch on each team. In some cases this will be a superstar who doesn’t receive the proper attention. In others it will be a player who I think is ready for a breakout season. And some will be players who could be great or could be disasters, players whose performance will play a major role in deciding their team’s season.

After that I will give a general prediction for each of these teams. I won’t try to predict their final records (with the randomness of a 16 game season this can only make me look like an idiot) but I will order the teams based on how I believe they will finish in the division, from first to last as you read. I will also try to address how these teams are set up long term, but my primary focus is on the 2014 season.

Philadelphia Eagles

Reason to be excited: Chip Kelly

I was initially skeptical when Kelly fled to the NFL in the face of sanctions at Oregon, but after last year I have come around on him. His offensive scheme was an immediate and overwhelming success at the professional level, incorporating new ideas that countless coaches have spent the offseason trying to duplicate. Beyond the tactics and schemes, he has shown himself to be a true innovator in the way he runs the team, experimenting with all sorts of intriguing new ideas that you can read about here. I do have some worries about how their offense will handle the lack of a true deep threat, but I’m sure Kelly can find new ways to exploit NFL defenses.

Reason to be nervous: Every other NFL coach

As much faith as I have in Kelly, I have just as much in the rest of the league’s coaching body as a whole. Many of the things Kelly showed them last year were new, and they didn’t really have a chance to install large scale adjustments until after the season. I’m sure the defensive coordinators of the league have found ways to counter their quick passing attack and to take advantage of Nick Foles’s immobility. The loss of DeSean Jackson will only make their job easier. Kelly’s entire offense relies on the principal of forcing the defense to defend the whole field. Without a deep threat to worry about, defenses can drag a safety into the box, essentially adding a man to help them cover space from sideline to sideline. I expect Kelly will find new ways to attack, but it will be more difficult now that defenses are more accustomed to what he’s showing them.

Impact Rookie: Jordan Matthews

Kelly has been very open about his affinity for large, physical wide receivers, and this year he finally found a player to fit that mold for the Eagles. Matthews was one of the more impressive physical specimens in the draft, and he was probably the most productive wide receiver available as well, leaving college with the SEC records for receptions and receiving yards. He may not have as much upside as some of the earlier talents off the board, but he is as ready to contribute as any receiver entering the draft. Placed in an offense surrounded by skilled weapons and with one of the most creative coaches in the game, he will have a strong rookie season, probably second among rookie receivers only to Brandin Cooks.

Player to Watch: Evan Mathis

The skill players on Philadelphia’s offense receive all the attention, but their offensive line is the strength of that unit. Mathis is the best player on that line, and he is among the best guards in the NFL. He isn’t a particularly big player, and he can struggle at times if he is asked to be a downhill force in the running game. Fortunately, Kelly’s scheme rarely asks that of him. It uses him to his strength, putting him in space and letting him use his remarkable athleticism. LeSean McCoy is a runner who needs space to succeed, and no one helps give him that space more than Mathis.

Prediction:

Last season everything that could have gone right for Philadelphia did, and they barely won one of the worst divisions in football. This year they will fall back to Earth somewhat, but they will still be the best team in the NFC East. The depth of their roster has no matches within the division, and their balance in every facet of the game will allow them to compete with any team. They are still a level below the elite teams in the league, and I would be mildly surprised to see them advance deep into the playoffs. But the arrow is definitely pointing up on this team, and a year or two down the road they might be capable of winning a championship.

Dallas Cowboys

Reason to be excited: Offensive Line

After years of trying to patch a unit together with high priced free agents, Jerry Jones finally realized he had to find young talent for his offensive line. It could be argued he went a bit too far, ignoring other holes on the roster by spending three of his last four first round picks on offensive linemen, but it is impossible not to appreciate the results. Based on Football Outsider’s advanced metrics, they were fourth in the league in run blocking and tenth in the league in pass protection. They already have one All Pro player in Tyron Smith, and after receiving plenty of mockery for taking Travis Frederick as high as they did in 2013, he developed into one of the better centers in the NFL. The offensive line has become the strength of this roster, and they will only get better with the addition of first round pick Zack Martin.

Reason to be nervous: Coaching

Does anyone understand why Jason Garrett is still an NFL head coach? He has achieved consistently mediocre results with one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, watching the careers of two future Hall of Famers wither away while their team wasted opportunity after opportunity. He doesn’t seem to have any mind for tactics, and he doesn’t appear capable of recognizing the strengths and weaknesses of his team. Jerry Jones’s mismanagement of the salary cap has caused major issues with this team, but the roster he has put together should have made the playoffs at least once in the past three years. They may still have the most talented roster in the division, but I don’t know if they can pull it out while Garrett is still leading the team.

Impact Rookie: Zack Martin

As I discussed above, Dallas had one of the best offensive lines in the league last year, and they will slide the rookie Martin in at guard between former first round picks Smith and Frederick. Martin is a fairly polished player who should be able to find success immediately, provided he can handle the transition from tackle to guard. An offensive lineman will never win Rookie of the Year, but I think by the end of the year there is a good chance that Martin will deserve to be in that conversation.

Player to Watch: Terrance Williams

The Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the NFL. I’ve already addressed their offensive line, and if they use DeMarco Murray properly they could have an above average running game. The one thing that separates them from the truly elite offenses in the NFL is the lack of a second receiving option. Dez Bryant is fantastic, but right now he is the only weapon on the outside that defenses have to worry about. Williams had a quietly fantastic rookie season, putting up more seven hundred yards receiving and five touchdowns. He is a big receiver with good speed, and if he takes the next step he will add an extra dimension to the already dangerous Dallas offense.

Prediction:

Dallas has the best offense in the division, but it is a tight competition between them and Washington for the worst defense. Their defensive woes (along with the vast disparity between the coaches) will prevent them from keeping up with Philadelphia. It could be close, and I wouldn’t be stunned if they got a few lucky breaks and managed to slip past the Eagles. But I expect the Cowboys are looking at another average season, at which point Garrett will undoubtedly lose his job. This is a team that would probably benefit from starting over, clearing out as many aging veterans as possible and building around the core of Dez Bryant and Tyron Smith.

Washington Redskins

Reason to be excited: Weaponry

I recently had an argument with some friends about whether or not the Redskins have the best set of weapons in the NFC. I still think Chicago is better, but Washington absolutely deserves to be in the conversation. Lost in the shuffle of last year’s disappointing season was how fantastic Pierre Garcon was, stepping up and delivering far and away the best season of his career. Adding DeSean Jackson gives them two elite receivers, with the solid Andre Roberts in the slot and the promising Jordan Reed at tight end. I still believe in Robert Griffin III, and he has the weapons to give them one of the best passing attacks in the game. Their offensive (and team) success will swing on what they can get from the other major weapon on their offense: Alfred Morris.

Reason to be nervous: Shanahan Void

Mike Shanahan deserves plenty of criticism for what happened last season, but it is impossible to ignore his track record when it comes to running backs. From Terrell Davis, to Olandis Gary, to Mike Anderson, to Clinton Portis, and now to Alfred Morris, Shanahan has shown a stunning ability to turn unheralded prospects into superstar runners. Unfortunately for the Redskins, Shanahan is no longer there, and his backs don’t have a great track record when removed from his system. I don’t know whether or not Morris will struggle, but the possibility has to scare every Redskins fan out there. The one hope they can point to is Clinton Portis, a running back who found success even after leaving Shanahan’s system to go to Washington. Even though he wasn’t as good as he was in Denver, he was still a quality back in the new scheme, something the Redskins have to hope they can get from Morris.

Impact Rookie: Spencer Long

The Redskins didn’t have a first round pick this year, and in the second round they traded back before selecting OLB Trent Murphy, who plays the one position on defense where they’re actually set. With their next two picks they took offensive linemen Morgan Moses and Spencer Long. Moses is the more highly touted player, but I expect Long will have a more productive rookie campaign. He has an easier path to a starting role, with Moses blocked at one of the tackle spots by Trent Williams. Soon enough Long will take over at guard for either Shawn Lauvao or Chris Chester.

Player to Watch: David Amerson

The Redskins defense is not very good. They have two good pass rushers in Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, and that’s about it. The struggles on offense received all the attention last year, but their inability to stop anyone was the bigger issue. Because of their cap situation, they were able to do very little to improve their defense this season, and if they want to be in serious contention they will need some young players to step up. One possibility is Amerson, a second round pick in 2013. Amerson was a highly productive player his sophomore year at NC State, leading the nation with twelve interceptions. He fell in the draft thanks to a disappointing junior year and questions about his athleticism, but he is still a big, physical cornerback with excellent ball skills. If he can step up and perform at an elite level, Washington’s defense might not be among the worst in the league.

Prediction:

Washington will rebound from last year’s miserable performance, but they still aren’t a playoff team. They lack any semblance of talent on defense, and I have questions about parts of their offense as well. Barring a surprising collapse from the Eagles, I don’t see the Redskins putting up much of a fight for the division, and in the loaded NFC they will not snag a Wild Card. The future doesn’t appear particularly bright for them either, as they are stuck with essentially no young talent after losing their last two first round picks as part of the RGIII trade. They’ve done as much as they can to surround their young quarterback with talent, but I think they are looking at three or four more years on the outside before his talents can carry them to the postseason again.

New York Giants

Reason to be excited: Secondary

The Giants aren’t a great defensive team, but they have one of the more intriguing secondaries in the league. Antrel Rolle had a quietly fantastic season at safety last year, and they added a pair of free agent cornerbacks in Walter Thurmond and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Both of these players could very easily turn into major disappointments, but they could also form a dangerous tandem on the outside, with Prince Amukamara performing as one of the better third cornerbacks in the league. This secondary could be very good, and if they get a strong pass rush from Jason Pierre-Paul, Mathias Kiwanuka, and Damontre Moore, they could have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL.

Reason to be nervous: Offensive Line

New York’s offensive line has been on a steady decline for the past few years. They were never appreciated enough for what they did to help the team to their Super Bowl victories, and it is only since they’ve left that people have begun to realize how essential they were. There was a point where the Giants had one of the best running games in the league, not because Derrick Ward or Ahmad Bradshaw or Brandon Jacobs were great running backs but because the offensive line opened massive holes for them to run through. Many of Eli Manning’s turnover issues can be attributed to the pressure in his face, and he was sacked a career high 39 times last year. Second round pick Weston Richburg will likely be a starter by the end of the year, but I don’t think they can expect him to save their offensive line.

Impact Rookie: Andre Williams

Running back is the easiest position to make the transition from college to the NFL, and Williams is as ready to make that transition as any back out there. He played in a heavy, downhill running attack at Boston College where he put up ridiculous numbers on an offense that didn’t have much besides him. He fell to the fourth round because of questions about his upside, but that shouldn’t stop him from producing right away. Currently he is third on the depth chart, but I don’t think it will take the Giants long to realize that neither Rashad Jennings nor Peyton Hillis will give them the running game they want. Williams might not be able to either, but he’ll at least get the chance.

Player to Watch: Jason Pierre-Paul

Three years ago Pierre-Paul was one of the most promising young players in the league. Two years ago he had a disappointing season, but most people expected him to bounce back. Last year he was even worse as he struggled through injuries, and people are now starting to question his long term future. He will definitely bounce back from his miserable 2013 performance, and the Giants’ season will swing on how far he bounces back. If he is the dominant player he looked like down the stretch in 2012 he could help push them to a surprise playoff berth. If he is merely an average or slightly above average pass rusher, the Giants will need to find other players to step up if they want to make a run this season.

Prediction:

This division is as hard to predict as any in the NFL, and I would not be shocked if the Giants managed to win it. But right now I think they are the worst team in the division. Their offense is far and away the worst in their division, and while their defense may be the best, it isn’t good enough to carry them past the other three quality offenses. The only way they find success is if Eli discovers some of his old magic, stops throwing interceptions, and plays at the level he did in 2011. But that will require an offensive line that can protect him, something I don’t see happening. This team will win enough games to keep hopes up into the second half of the season, but they will come up short of the playoffs, ending up with a draft pick somewhere in the teens. I don’t see a lot of long term upside for this franchise, and I think they are in for several down years going forward.