I will break down each of these teams individually. I will start by
listing reasons for this team to be excited and then reasons for them to be
nervous, looking at the possible upsides and potential downsides of these
rosters. I will then identify the rookie from their draft class who I think
will make the most immediate impact. This doesn’t mean that I think these
rookies will have the best long term careers, just that they will contribute
the most this season. I will then identify one player to watch on each team. In
some cases this will be a superstar who doesn’t receive the proper attention.
In others it will be a player who I think is ready for a breakout season. And
some will be players who could be great or could be disasters, players whose
performance will play a major role in deciding their team’s season.
After that I will give a general prediction for each of these teams. I
won’t try to predict their final records (with the randomness of a 16 game
season this can only make me look like an idiot) but I will order the teams
based on how I believe they will finish in the division, from first to last as
you read. I will also try to address how these teams are set up long term, but
my primary focus is on the 2014 season.
Indianapolis
Colts
Reason to be excited: Superstardom of Andrew
Luck
Luck was fantastic his
rookie season, and he only got better last year. His quarterback rating,
completion percentage, and touchdown percentage all went up, and his sacks and
interception totals both went down. He will continue to progress this year, with the
help of an improved stable of weapons on the outside. TY Hilton is ready to
develop into a Pro Bowl level wide receiver, and they made a couple of high upside additions at the receiver position this offseason. Dwayne Allen is back healthy, giving them one of the best
tight end pairs in the league. This is the year that Luck becomes the player we
have known for years he was going to be. He should be in the MVP conversation
at the end of the season.
Reason to be nervous: Defense
This is a pretty big reason to be
nervous, and it’s the one thing holding Indianapolis
back from being Super Bowl contenders. They just don’t have that much talent on
the defensive side of the ball. I don’t expect Robert Mathis will be able to
repeat his performance from last season even when he returns from suspension,
and they have no one else capable of bringing a consistent pass rush. Vontae
Davis is their best defensive player on some days and their worst on others.
Besides that, they have no one capable of performing at a level above average.
The decision to trade away their first round pick this year cost them the
opportunity to add talent to this side of the ball, and they will be stuck with
a vulnerable defense for the next few seasons.
Impact Rookie: Donte Moncrief
The Colts traded their first
round pick last year for Trent Richardson, an undisputed mistake. Because of
this they weren’t able to add a player until the fifty-ninth selection. But
they may have found a steal in the third round in Donte Moncrief, a big, fast
wide receiver out of Ole Miss. With Hilton already in place, Reggie Wayne
coming back from his knee injury, and Hakeem Nicks added through free agency,
he will struggle to find playing time in an offense that is bizarrely
run-happy. But I expect he will see more playing time as the season wears on
and they start to run more four receiver sets. Until then he
will still be able to contribute as a kick returner.
Player to Watch: Dwayne Allen
I originally wanted to write
about the resurgence of Hakeem Nicks, but so far I have heard nothing but
negative things about him at training camp. So I will instead write about
another addition to their offensive attack, third year tight end Dwayne Allen
who is returning after losing all of last season to a hip injury. Fellow third
year player Coby Fleener gets more attention, but during their rookie season
Allen was by far the better player. He will never be an elite threat in the
passing game, but he does enough as a receiver to justify keeping him on the
field, where he offers incredible production as one of the best blocking tight
ends in the league. I don’t think his return will be enough to rescue Indianapolis’s anemic
running game, but it might stop it from sinking the team’s fortunes.
Prediction:
I expect the Colts to take a
small step back this season. Two of their biggest contributors, Wayne and
Mathis, are reaching the ends of their careers, and they are short on young
players who could step up to take their places. They’ve coasted to double digit
wins the past two years based on a weak division and some good fortune, and
this year I expect both of these things to regress to the mean. That said, I
still think they will win the division, based largely on their supremacy at the
quarterback position. Once they make the playoffs, it might be possible for
Luck to carry them to the Super Bowl, but I expect this team to exit either in the first or the second round.
Houston Texans
Reason to be excited: JJ Watt and Jadeveon
Clowney
I’m not even an NFL quarterback,
and I’m terrified for my life. By now Watt has a well deserved reputation as
the best defender in the league, but however good you think he is, he’s
actually better. Last season his greatness was often overlooked thanks to the
terrible record of their team, when he showed that even one of the greatest
defensive football players of all time cannot carry a team on his back. He’ll be
his normal great self this season, and for the first time he’ll have someone to
match his talent joining him on defense. Clowney is one of the most
spectacularly talented pass rushers to enter the league in years, blending
remarkable athleticism with versatile technique. He’ll likely face an adjustment
period as he slides to outside linebacker and is forced to play standing up,
and it will be interesting to see how defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel
utilizes his two stars. When they work together to get after the quarterback,
I’m not sure if anything will be able to stop them.
Reason to be nervous: Offense
Is it possible to keep Houston's defense on the field for every play this season? I don’t think their offense will be terrible, but it isn’t
going to be pleasant. Ryan Fitzpatrick is their starter for now, until the fans
and the coaches get sick of his reckless mediocrity and decide to throw Tom
Savage to the wolves. Andre Johnson is getting up there in years, and DeAndre
Hopkins will need to take a major step forward after a so-so rookie campaign.
It will be interesting to see how Arian Foster fares under the new coaches.
There is a well established pattern of running backs struggling after leaving
Gary Kubiak’s offensive scheme, and Foster was starting to slow down already
over the past couple years. I could very easily see Houston struggling to move the ball
offensively, putting tremendous pressure on their defense.
Impact Rookie: Louis Nix
Clowney is the obvious answer,
but I think his transition to linebacker will give him enough trouble to slow
the start of his career. By the end of the season he should be a dominant
force, but until then I think they will receive the greatest contribution from
Nix, a defensive tackle they took in the third round. Nix was a first round
talent who fell because his position is no longer greatly valued in the NFL. He
is a run stuffing force in the middle that lacks the athleticism or the moves
to dominate as a pass rusher, and he likely projects as only a two down player.
But he should be able to slide into that role almost immediately, and even if
he never develops further he will be a useful player in the middle of Houston’s defense.
Player to Watch: Brian Cushing
Watch what you can of Cushing,
because there’s a decent chance you won’t have many opportunities. Injuries
limited Cushing to twelve games over the past two seasons, but in those twelve
games he was one of the most impressive inside linebackers in the NFL. Had he
stayed healthy we likely would be talking about him in the same category we
discuss Luke Keuchly and Navarro Bowman, but instead he is just another Sean
Lee. If he can stay healthy and play at the level he was at before the
injuries, he gives Houston
another devastating force on their defense, someone to take advantage of the
double teams drawn by Watt and Clowney. If he can’t contribute as he used to, Houston is going to be
stuck fielding a dangerously thin defense behind their two superstars.
Prediction:
Houston is definitely on the upswing, but I
think they will need a couple more years before they are ready to contend.
Their offense needs completely retooled, and they are probably a few pieces
away from being dominant enough on defense to carry the team.Four games against Jacksonville and Tennessee should keep them in the playoff mix in the weak AFC, though I expect them to fall a few games short of a Wild Card slot. They need to figure out something to do at the quarterback position long term, but there are also quite a few other holes that need filled. I think they have one or two more years to make a run at Indianapolis for the division title before being surpassed by the teams below them.
Tennessee Titans
Reason to be excited: Receiving Corps
Tennessee has assembled one of the more
intriguing wide receiver corps in the league. Veteran Nate Washington has put
together a long, solid career since coming over from Pittsburgh, and for the
first time the Titans have actually surrounded him with some intriguing young
talent. Kendall Wright had a fantastic second year last season, and he should
only be better as he develops a more complete understanding of the game. Justin
Hunter flashed at times during his rookie season, and if he can develop route running skills
to go along with his size, speed, and leaping ability, he could be something
truly special. It is very possible that by the end of the season we are talking
about Tennessee
as one of the five best receiver groups in the league. The only thing that
could hold them back is the player throwing them the ball.
Reason to be nervous: Jake Locker
This is a make or break season
for Locker, and I’m pretty sure he is going to break. Through his first three
seasons he has shown very little to suggest that he could be a high quality
starter in the NFL. He rarely moves past his second read, and even when he does
find an open receiver, he struggles to place the ball on target. He is injury
prone, and he is entering the final year of his contract. Tennessee has decided to stick with him for
now, but I don’t expect he will start more than ten more games in a Titans
uniform. By the midpoint of the season I expect we will place him in the same category as fellow 2011 draftees Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder.
Impact Rookie: Bishop Sankey
Sankey is a reasonable pick for
Offensive Rookie of the Year. There is no one blocking his path to the starting
role, and he will be placed behind an offensive line that could develop into a
solid unit. He is capable of contributing both as a runner and a receiver, and
head coach Ken Whisenhunt will find a way to get the most out of him, much as
he did with Danny Woodhead last year in San
Diego. I’m not convinced that Sankey can carry
the full load of a starting tailback, but he will probably have to for as long as Locker is still the starting quarterback in Tennessee.
Player to Watch: Jurrell Casey
Casey broke out last year, and
this year he should finally receive the attention he didn’t get last season. He
tied for the league lead in sacks by a defensive tackle and was far and away
the best player on Tennessee’s
roster. With a bevy of young talent on that side of the ball, he could very
easily lead a resurgence that pushes the Titans into playoff contention. The
one concern I have is that with the change in coaching staffs, Tennessee has decided to
move to a 3-4 scheme, forcing Casey to move out to defensive end. He will do
less penetrating this season, and it is difficult to say how easy the
transition will be for him. If defensive coordinator Ray Horton (one of the
better coordinators in the league) allows him some leeway in how he plays the
position, he could find success. But if Casey is trapped in a more
traditional 3-4 scheme, he could be in store for a disappointing season.
Prediction:
The Titans aren’t a terrible
team, but they will be held back by their quarterback. Even if they realize
that Locker can’t play early in the season, they lack a reliable veteran behind
him that they can trust to lead the team. Charlie Whitehurst will likely start
several games for them, and rookie Zach Mettenberger will get a shot too. If
one of them can surprise and perform well, this could be a dangerous offense.
But I think it is much more likely that they will wallow in mediocrity on both
sides of the ball, eventually winding up with a draft pick somewhere in the
mid-teens. Down the road it will be interesting to see whether they try to
invest in a new quarterback next year or give Mettenberger a chance to show why
he was once considered a first round prospect.
Jacksonville
Jaguars
Reason to be excited: Offensive Youth
Young talent is always fun in the
NFL. It is exciting to watch players develop, to have high hopes and to see how
those hopes pan out. And on the offensive side of the ball, Jacksonville is loaded with young talent. At
wide receiver they have rookies Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson, as well as
second year players Denard Robinson and Ace Sanders. Luke Joeckel is healthy
and ready to slide in at left tackle. Blake Bortles will see the field this
season, and he looked promising during his first couple preseason games. It is
impossible to say whether these players will perform up to expectations and
shape the roster for years down the road, but for the first time in years the
Jaguars actually have genuine reasons to feel hope.
Reason to be nervous: Lack of Skilled Veterans
Jacksonville has a lot of young players who
can contribute, but they lack the sort of established talent a team needs to
turn things around. Their roster last year was an utter black hole, and adding
rookies doesn’t help if there is no base of talent already in place. Most of
their top draft picks this season were on the offensive side of the ball, and
the additions they made through free agency on defense will not be able to save
that unit. Chris Clemons and Red Bryant were solid contributors as the ninth
and tenth best players on Seattle’s defense, but
in Jacksonville
they will be asked to be the heart and soul of a unit that doesn’t have
anything else. The Jaguars went for a full scale teardown (not that there was
much to tear down) and they will have to suffer until their young players are
ready to carry the team.
Impact Rookie: Marqise Lee
Lee has had a tumultuous start to
his rookie season, including receiving public criticism from his head coach
about his work ethic. But I still believe that by the end of the season he will
be one of the more productive rookie receivers in the NFL. He doesn’t have the
size or athleticism of someone like Sammy Watkins or Mike Evans, but he was far
and away the most polished wide receiver in the 2014 draft class. His last
season at USC was a disappointment due to injuries, but if he can stay healthy
in Jacksonville
he will quickly become their top target in the passing game.
Player to Watch: Johnathan Cyprien
Earlier I mentioned that the
majority of Jacksonville’s
young talent is on the offensive side of the ball. Cyprien is the exception to
that. A safety drafted in the second round last year, he was one of the few
bright spots on a team that was generally miserable all around. He brings a
shock of speed to a defense that is comprised mainly of old and slow veterans,
flying across the field and making tackles all over the place. He still has
some work to do in pass coverage, and I’m not sure if he can develop into
anything more than an above average starter. But he is a fine piece for Jacksonville to build
around as they revamp their defense.
Prediction:
Jacksonville is another team with promise,
and I think that in two or three years the AFC South will be one of the most
competitive divisions in football. For now, teams like Jacksonville will have to settle for fighting
for the bottom spot. The only way the Jaguars make a run for the playoffs is if
Bortles has an Andrew Luck level rookie season, something I very
much doubt will happen. This is still a bad football team, and I wouldn’t be
shocked to see them drafting in the top ten next season. I would be shocked if
they end up in the top five again, and I think that in two years they
will be in position to compete for the playoffs.
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