NFC South Preview

The first game of the NFL season is 23 days away, which means it is long past time for me to start my preview series. I will be trying to get two divisions done each weak, hopefully having htem all finished before the Packers-Seahawks game to open the season. Today, I will start with the NFC South.

I will break down each of these teams individually. I will start by listing reasons for this team to be excited and then reasons for them to be nervous, looking at the possible upsides and potential downsides of these rosters. I will then identify the rookie from their draft class who I think will make the most immediate impact. This doesn’t mean that I think these rookies will have the best long term careers, just that they will contribute the most this season. I will then identify one player to watch on each team. In some cases this will be a superstar who doesn’t receive the proper attention. In others it will be a player who I think is ready for a breakout season. And some will be players who could be great or could be disasters, players whose performance will play a major role in deciding their team’s season.

After that I will give a general prediction for each of these teams. I won’t try to predict their final records (with the randomness of a 16 game season this can only make me look like an idiot) but I will order the teams based on how I believe they will finish in the division, from first to last as you read. I will also try to address how these teams are set up long term, but my primary focus is on the 2014 season.

New Orleans Saints

Reason to be excited: Defensive Improvements

For the first time in several years New Orleans is going into a season with a defense that isn’t an utter joke. After surrendering more yards than any defense in history two years ago, they hired Rob Ryan as defensive coordinator and switched over to a 3-4 scheme. This change led to the breakout of Cameron Jordan, yet another extraordinary defensive talent from the 2011 draft (Seriously, look that draft up. It’s incredible.) Safety Kenny Vaccaro was one of the best rookies in the league last year, and the addition of Jairus Byrd gives them one of the strongest secondaries in the NFL. They still lack an elite edge pass rusher, but Ryan is creative enough to generate tremendous pressure with the players he has to work with.

Reason to be nervous: Pass Rush

As I mentioned above, they don’t have anyone who can get after the quarterback from the edge. Jordan is a great player as a 5-technique defensive end, but with the exception of JJ Watt, players at this position cannot generate the sort of consistent pressure to support a defense. They need one of their outside linebackers to step up and take advantage of the double teams drawn by Jordan, and I don’t see a player on their roster capable of doing that. They managed last year thanks to twelve sacks from Junior Galette, but he is bound to come back to earth this year. Byrd is one of the best cover safeties in the league, but he won’t be able to produce his typical game altering plays without the pass rush he had in Buffalo. As promising as New Orleans’s secondary is, they can’t hold up forever.

Impact Rookie: Brandin Cooks

Count me among the multitudes who believe Brandin Cooks will have a fantastic rookie season. Smaller, quicker receivers who excel in the slot usually transition to the NFL better than their larger counterparts, and no one in this year’s class fits that mold as well as Cooks. Add in being a more polished route runner than most rookie receivers, an elite quarterback to throw to him, and one of the best offensive minds in the game as his head coach, and I have full confidence that Cooks can compete for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Cooks is versatile enough to slide right into the role of the departed Darren Sproles, and it won’t take long for him to surpass that and become New Orleans’s number three option at wide receiver.

Player to Watch: Keenan Lewis

I talked about the New Orleans secondary above, but I didn’t mention their cornerback position. On one side they have Patrick Robinson, a former first round pick who is a passable starter. On the other side they have Keenan Lewis, one of the most underrated players in the NFL. Lewis didn’t do much during his first three seasons in Pittsburgh, but he broke out his final year there before leaving as a free agent for New Orleans. Early season struggles convinced most people that he was just a one year wonder, but he came on strong by the end of the year, looking like a top ten cornerback as New Orleans made its late season playoff push. I don’t think he has what it takes to be an elite corner on the level of Revis, Peterson, Sherman, or Haden, but I believe by the end of the year we will put him in the second tier with players like Talib and Verner.

Prediction:

After a couple down years, New Orleans is once again the favorite in the NFC South. They have a strong stable of weapons for Brees to attack with, and their defense is finally competent, with the potential to be above average. This team still has flaws—pass rush and offensive line stand out—but the talent at other places on their roster should allow them to compensate for these issues. They will win the division without trouble, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they make a run at the Super Bowl. They have gone all in on these next three seasons, and if they don't bring home a championship in that time it will be considered a disappointment.

Atlanta Falcons

Reason to be excited: Health

As happens every year, there were a number of teams last season who were derailed by injuries. But none suffered quite as bad as Atlanta. The losses of Julio Jones, William Moore, and Sean Weatherspoon robbed them of three of their best players for most of the season, and the hobbling of Roddy White and Steven Jackson took away two of their most experienced offensive players. This year these players are back healthy (with the exception of Weatherspoon, who will miss the entire season after tearing his Achilles) and they should be closer to the team they were in 2012 than the one they were in 2013.

Reason to be nervous: Weakness Up Front

The injuries received all the attention last year, but it could be argued that they weren’t as significant as the general lack of talent on the line on both sides of the ball, a problem they’ve faced for years. Matt Ryan’s sack numbers have increased each year of his career, reaching a staggering 44 last season. Only Chicago and Jacksonville produced fewer sacks on defense last season, and only Chicago allowed opposing running backs more yards per carry (Chicago’s defensive front was really, really, really bad.) Atlanta’s moves this offseason suggest that they understand these shortcomings, bringing in free agent players like Tyson Jackson and Paul Soliai that suggest a transition in defensive philosophy. They also spent their first two selections on lineman, though second round pick Ra’Shede Hagman has had a rocky training camp. Fortunately, their first round pick appears ready to make an immediate impact.

Impact Rookie: OT Jake Matthews

It is incredibly difficult for a rookie offensive lineman to find success in the NFL. We have been spoiled by years of players like Joe Thomas, Jake Long, and Matt Kalil playing at Pro Bowl levels from the moment they enter the league. More often than not, rookies end up like the top linemen last year, struggling through a season of adjusting to the schemes and physicality of the NFL. But if there is any offensive lineman this year who can make an immediate impact, it is Matthews. He is a solid all around player with experience playing both sides of the line, meaning he won’t have to face the same awkward transition when asked to play right tackle like Fisher, Joeckel, and Johnson did last year. He should help stabilize their weak offensive line, giving Jackson room to run and Ryan time to throw.

Player to Watch: CB Desmond Trufant

Trufant had a sneakily good rookie year last season, and he is going to be asked to do even more this year. Cornerback may be the most difficult position to transition from college to the NFL, and even with Trufant’s success as a rookie he likely still has a lot of room to improve this year. He has good size and excellent speed, and he has good ball skills even if he doesn’t produce a lot of interceptions. Atlanta has no pass rush to speak of, and if they want to stop teams from throwing all over them they will have to play tight coverage across the board. Trufant’s growth will be essential to the success of their defense this year.

Prediction:

Atlanta will be better than last season, and they should be in competition for one of the Wild Card spots. But this is still a team with a very slim margin for error, without the safety blanket of Tony Gonzalez they’ve relied upon for years. We’ve already started to see the decline of Roddy White and Steven Jackson, and if this offense degrades to just Matt Ryan and Julio Jones they will not be able to score enough points to make up for their weaknesses on defense. I don’t think they will fall into the top ten of the draft like they did last year, but I think it is highly likely that they end up drifting around .500 and missing the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Reason to be excited: Offensive Weapons

Tampa Bay has sneakily put together one of the best units of offensive weapons in the NFL. Vincent Jackson has been underrated for years, and I expect a strong bounceback from Doug Martin after his injury plagued 2013 season. Adding Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins in the draft has given them an impressive collection of young, athletic talent (even more so in the unlikely event that Chris Owusu stays healthy.) Josh McCown put together a surprising run last year surrounded by a similar cast of talent in Chicago, and with Tampa Bay’s defense this offense doesn’t even need to do that much. A couple fantastic plays a game will be enough to generate the points to stay ahead of their opposition.

Reason to be nervous: Quarterback

Does anyone actually believe Josh McCown can lead a team to the playoffs? I doubt even Lovie Smith does. McCown is here to hold a place for a year while they figure out some non-Glennon option at the position, likely a pick early in next year’s draft. As good as McCown was last year, I’d bet on him being closer to the player he was in his previous 27 starts. The weapons he has in Tampa Bay are still a year or two away from being what he had in Chicago, and his offensive line isn’t nearly as good. I don’t expect he’ll be the starting quarterback through the entire season, and I don’t think Mike Glennon will be a better option.

Impact Rookie: Mike Evans

Seferian-Jenkins has a lot of potential, but of the two Evans is much more ready to contribute immediately. This isn’t to say that I believe he will have a fantastic rookie season. He’ll make some plays, but I don’t think he can be counted on for any sort of consistent production. The transition will take some time for him, as it will for most of the rookies they drafted. This team is built to win in two or three years, once their offensive weapons have developed and their quarterback situation is figured out. Until then, they’ll have to do with the occasional physical dominance of their first round selection.

Player to Watch: Lavonte David

This is the year that everyone figures out how great Lavonte David is. I hope so, at least. David is one of the best defensive players in the NFL, and he should have received consideration for Defensive Player of the Year last season. Instead, he didn’t even make the Pro Bowl. This is the nature of playing outside linebacker in the 4-3, always being overshadowed by players in the 3-4 who collect sacks playing a position that has few similarities besides the name. One of the few 4-3 outside linebackers to receive recognition in recent years is Lance Briggs, the player who manned the position for Lovie Smith in Chicago. Now that Smith is in Tampa Bay, David will become the new (and maybe improved) version of Briggs. He will fly all over the field, creating havoc as a run stuffer and a pass defender. He won’t be ask to blitz as much as in recent years, which is a shame, but hopefully his dominance in these other areas will earn him the widespread recognition he deserves.

Prediction:

Tampa Bay may have the most complete roster in the division, but the quarterback position will hold them back. They’ll win some games on the strength of their defense and their offensive playmakers, and they might be able to compete for a Wild Card spot. But unless McCown can repeat his performance from last year, they don’t have a chance of winning this competitive division. They have a good foundation, and if they can figure something out at the quarterback position they can compete as early as next year.

Carolina Panthers 

Reason to be excited: Defensive Front

The strength of the team last year will be the strength of the team this year. Luke Keuchly received all the attention (and the Defensive Player of the Year Award) but a strong case could be made that Greg Hardy was their best player last season. He is one of the few elite pass rushers who is just as good against the run, and his ability to bounce inside and play defensive tackle gives them even more versatility in their pass rush. The rest of their defensive line is strong as well. Charles Johnson is known best for his wretchedly awful contract, but he is still an above average defensive end. Defensive tackles Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short will only be better in their second season, and with their linebacker pair they have the best front six in the NFL. They lost a number of pieces in their secondary this offseason, but with the strength up front they have reason to believe that those pieces are easily replaced.

Reason to be nervous: Veteran Losses

These past few years it almost seemed as if Steve Smith and Jordan Gross had been with the Panthers since the team’s expansion season. Both were consistent and reliable players at their position for more than a decade, and Carolina never really found reason to invest in young talent at these positions. Gross’s retirement didn’t surprise anyone, but Smith’s trade demand certainly did. Suddenly the two positions of reliable strength turned into gaping holes, and with their lack of cap space there was little they could do to address these issues. They drafted the incredibly raw Kelvin Benjamin to replace Smith, and it’s looking like last season’s right tackle Byron Bell will take over for Gross. These are hardly reasons to be optimistic for this season.

Impact Rookie: Trai Turner

Right now it appears that two rookies are in position to start for the Panthers. Kelvin Benjamin will be one of their starting receivers, but I don’t think he is polished enough to succeed immediately in the NFL. I think they will get more production from Turner, their likely starter at right guard. Turner is massive at 320 pounds, though his short stature will prevent him from providing any help at left tackle. But he should be able to help their line at guard, clearing space for their running game much as he did at LSU these past couple years. Carolina is already one of the best short yardage running teams in the league, and putting Turner beside All Pro center Ryan Kalil will make them even stronger up the middle.

Player to Watch: Thomas Davis

Keuchly received all the attention last year, but their other starting linebacker had a breakout season as well (Carolina very rarely played with three linebackers on the field.) Davis is a former first round pick who was considered a disappointment until last year, when he developed into maybe the best pass covering linebackers in the league. He takes care of tight ends running up the seams and running backs coming out of the backfield, and his abilities in the passing game should help them cover for the players they lost in their defensive backfield.

Prediction:

Carolina is in a bad situation. They put together a great run last year, and many fans no doubt hope to see a repeat this season. But this team just does not have the talent to make the playoffs in the stacked NFC. They have too many bad contracts on their roster, preventing them from retaining their own players as well as signing outside their team. I expect them to backslide this year, to finish fourth in their division and make no real run at the playoffs. Ron Rivera may very well lose his job, though I don’t think that will be warranted. They’re stuck with DeAngello Williams and Jonathan Stewart for two more years at least, but after this year they should be able to move on from Charles Johnson. A bad season will set them up with a good draft pick so they can start to build around Cam Newton.