Fatal Flaws

Every NFL team is in the midst of training camp, which means this is a time of unbridled positivity across the league. Every starter is in the best shape of his life, and seventh round draft picks are emerging across the league to fill the holes in otherwise stellar rosters. Every team has a chance at the Super Bowl right now, and fans are buzzing with the anticipation of a promising season.

There’s very little in this world I love more than inserting a shot of pessimistic reality into an atmosphere of positivity. Right now there are thirteen teams with better than 40/1 odds of winning the Super Bowl, teams everyone agrees have a legitimate shot. I looked over the rosters of these teams, and I identified the one flaw that will keep each of these teams from winning the Super Bowl.

Before you get too outraged by the comments I’ve made about your favorite teams, understand that I’m taking things a bit over the top. I would be stunned if anyone other than these thirteen teams (excluding Carolina) won the Super Bowl. There’s no such thing as a perfect team, and one of these thirteen (excluding Carolina) will find a way to cover their flaw well enough to pull out a Super Bowl victory.

Pittsburgh Steelers 33/1

Why they won’t win the Superbowl: Pass defense

A few years ago the Steelers defense was declared “old and slow” by a number of pundits, and it’s looking like they may finally be right. Pittsburgh faltered last year because their defense could no longer keep up in the passing or the running game, and while offseason additions may help them stuff the run, they haven’t done much to help themselves against the pass. Their starting cornerbacks will be the ghost of Ike Taylor and the eternal potential of Cortez Allen. Their only hopes for a pass rush are second year player Jarvis Jones, who had a grand total of one sack during his rookie season, and Jason Worilds, a player who was considered a r disappointment until he put together a surprising run late last season. Right now they have no one who has shown the ability to generate consistent pressure and no one who can lock down receivers on the outside. Their offense is good, but they aren’t good enough to keep up with what a good passing attack will do to their defense.

Detroit Lions 33/1

Why they won’t win the Superbowl: Coaching

Detroit is the only team on this list replacing their head coach, after Jim Schwarz’s antagonistic ineptitude torpedoed their season last year. They absolutely needed an upgrade at that position, but instead they decided to go with Jim Caldwell. For those of you unfamiliar with Caldwell’s work, here are his career win totals as the head coach of the Colts: 14, 10, 2. His team worsened each year he was in charge, going from a Super Bowl contender to the top overall selection in a span of three years. A major part of this was the loss of Peyton Manning to injury, but there is never an excuse for a team to win only two games in a season. Since being fired for that debacle, Caldwell spent a season and a half as the offensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens. Last year—his only full season as an NFL coordinator—he oversaw the worst season of Joe Flacco’s career and a historically bad running game. The Lions haven’t had a quality head coach since Wayne Fontes, and it looks like they’re going to have to wait another couple of years.

Carolina Panthers 33/1

Why they won’t win the Superbowl: Don’t get me started…

Let me make one thing perfectly clear: these odds are ridiculous. Carolina does not belong among the top thirteen teams in the league. They don’t belong among the top twenty teams in the league. They had a good season last year, but they aren’t going to repeat it. Their wide receiving corps is filled with a bunch of third options rejected by the rest of the league, and they have absolutely no one to play left tackle. Their best defensive lineman is facing league discipline, and they lost multiple starters from their secondary. This team might have a shot a few years down the road once they get out from under their more onerous contracts, but this coming season they have no chance to win the Super Bowll

Atlanta Falcons 33/1

Why they won’t win the Superbowl: Depth

Hey Atlanta fans, how do you feel about an encore? Last season the Falcons were crippled by their lack of depth, as injuries forced them to fill out their starting units with players that likely shouldn’t have even been on an NFL roster. This is one of the downsides of trading multiple draft picks to move up and select players like Sam Baker and Julio Jones. When they get hurt, it’s like losing four or five players. With them back maybe fans could hope for a return to the success of 2012. But already they’ve suffered another loss, losing their best defensive player Sean Weatherspoon to a torn Achilles. And now they’re stuck with the same garbage behind him they had to suffer through last season. Another injury or two (inevitable in the NFL) and their entire season will go the same route it did last year.

Philadelphia Eagles 25/1

Why they won’t win the Superbowl: Offensive limitations

Most people look at Philadelphia and identify defense as their weakness, but they put the pieces together on that side of the ball last season. They won’t be a great unit, but they have far and away the best defense in the NFC East. A bigger concern is on the offensive side of the ball, specifically with the loss of DeSean Jackson. Their offense was a juggernaut last year as the NFL scrambled to adjust to Chip Kelly’s schemes, but now that defensive coordinators have had an offseason to scheme the Eagles will have to find other ways to succeed. The problem is that their offensive skill players all do pretty much the same thing. Maclin, McCoy, Sproles, and even Cooper all do their best work underneath and in the middle of the field. Jackson was the only player they had who could stretch downfield, and without him defenses will be able to bring everyone up to the line to stuff their quick attacking offense.

Indianapolis Colts 16/1

Why they won’t win the Superbowl: Pass rush

Their running game is garbage, but it’s easier to survive without a rushing attack than it is without a pass rush. No team was as one dimensional with their pass rush last year as the Colts were. Robert Mathis was all they had, and now he’s facing a suspension to start the year. In the terrible NFC South this shouldn’t hurt their playoff chances, but unless they develop someone across from Mathis they will have no hope of getting pressure on quarterbacks. Bjoern Werner showed absolutely nothing after being taken in the first round last year. Cory Redding has averaged just under three sacks a season for his career, making him the second most prolific pass rusher on their roster. Their secondary isn’t good enough to shut anyone down, and the quarterbacks they will face in the playoffs will be able to stand in the pocket for as long they want.

Chicago Bears 16/1

Why they won’t win the Superbowl: Defense

This is a weird one. Normally it’s the offense holding Chicago back, but with Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall, Matt Forte, and an improving offensive line, they have the firepower to score with anyone in the league. Last year it was their defense that did them in, and it will be the same story this year. It’s not just one part of their defense either, with vulnerabilities at all levels. Lamarr Houston was a great addition up front, but he can’t do enough to save the disaster that was their defensive line last year. Lance Briggs is barely mobile these days, and Jon Bostic did essentially nothing his rookie year. Their worst position last year was at safety, and while you have to give them credit for trying, I don’t put much faith in the additions of Ryan Mundy, Adrian Wilson, MD Jennings, and Brock Vereen. Chicago’s offense can score a lot of points, and they’re going to have to if they want to win this season.

New Orleans Saints 14/1

Why they won’t win the Superbowl: Offensive Line

No quarterback needs an offensive line more than Drew Brees. His height has been an issue throughout his career, an issue Sean Payton managed to solve by putting together one of the best lines in the NFL. There was a time when the Saints had the two best guards in the league and Brees never had to worry about pressure in his face, but that time is long gone. Jahri Evans is not the player he used to be, and Ben Grubbs was a disappointing replacement for Carl Nicks. They’re likely to go with second year player Terron Armstead at left tackle, who struggled mightily when forced into a starting role last season. His one notable attribute is speed, running the same 40 yard dash as the wide receiver drafted directly after him, Keenan Allen. Huh, maybe we shouldn’t use 40 yard dash times as the only way to judge a player’s value.

Green Bay Packers 11/1

Why they won’t win the Superbowl: Run Defense

The Packers have managed solid numbers against the run the past few years by not allowing themselves to be gashed by mediocre teams. But any team with a quality rushing attack can move the ball on the Packers without trouble, and has been able to for the past few years. BJ Raji is still traumatized by what Colin Kaepernick did to him two years ago, and AJ Hawk has seemingly been in decline since he entered the league. They improved at safety with Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, but he’s slow enough in run support that he rarely makes a tackle within eight yards of the line of scrimmage. Julius Peppers is still a good run defender, but if they insist on playing him as a stand up linebacker his tall frame and limited mobility will make it easy for blockers to get beneath his pads and push him around. The only hope Green Bay has is that it can make it through the playoffs without facing Chicago, Philadelphia, Seattle, or their usual nemesis San Francisco. Good luck with that.

New England Patriots 9/1

Why they won’t win the Superbowl: Tom Brady

If I had any readers who were Patriots fans (or any readers in general) they would probably rip me to shreds for this. Tom Brady is above reproach after all. Never mind that last year was the worst season of his career since 2006. Never mind that his completion percentage has dropped each of the past four seasons, as has his touchdown percentage. Never mind that his yards per attempt dropped below seven last season for only the second time since 2004. Everyone blames this on his receiving corps, and that’s undoubtedly part of the problem. But maybe the decline of age that everyone has been expecting from Peyton Manning has caught Tom Brady first. As we saw last year, the brilliance of Bill Belichick is enough to get them deep into the playoffs, but without top quality Brady they won’t be winning any Super Bowls.

San Francisco 49ers 7/1

Why they won’t win the Superbowl: Secondary

San Francisco has some good safeties. Antoine Bethea is an upgrade of Donte Whitner, and Eric Reed was one of the better rookies in the NFL last year. But there’s one thing these two can’t do, and that’s play in coverage against wide receivers. In fact, I’m not sure there’s a single player on San Francisco’s roster that can play in coverage against wide receivers. Chris Cook has twenty-nine career starts and no interceptions. Tramaine Brock was a liability as a third cornerback last year. Chris Culliver could barely keep up with receivers before he tore his ACL. With Justin Smith slowly wearing down and Aldon Smith’s availability always up in the air, their pass rush won’t be enough to take pressure off their secondary. Unless first round pick Jimmy Ward (another safety, for some reason) becomes an ace in the slot, quality passing teams will be able to roll over their defense.

Denver Broncos 13/2

Why they won’t win the Superbowl: Age

Much has been made about Peyton Manning’s age. Even though he was the best player in the league last year, it is very possible for it to fall apart within a single year, as evidenced by Brett Favre’s 2010 season. But he may not even be the biggest age concern on the Broncos. They are relying on players well over the hill at a number of key positions, and it could easily come back to bite them. Wes Welker failed to reach even 800 yards last year, and with the loss of Eric Decker he’s going to be asked to take on a bigger role in their offense. DeMarcus Ware was brought in to add a pass rushing threat across from Von Miller, but if he suffers the same injury woes he dealt with last year in Dallas, Denver is back to the one dimensional pass rush they had last year. The Broncos have placed three players nearing the ends of their careers at crucial positions in their team, and if even one of them falters they won’t have the talent to win the Super Bowl.

Seattle Seahawks 13/2

Why they won’t win the Superbowl: Offensive line

The offensive line is the secret flaw of this Seahawks team. Russell Okung is an above average left tackle and Max Unger can play at a high level at center, but these two overshadow the wretchedness of their other three starters. They’ve been able to weather it for the last two seasons because of the elusiveness of Russell Wilson and the physicality of Marshawn Lynch, but this is going to catch up to them sooner or later. Lynch takes a beating every time he carries the ball, and he slowed down as the season wore on last year. Everyone seems excited about Chritine Michael, a player who couldn’t crack the active roster for most of last season. Without a productive running game the pressure on Wilson will only increase. He can’t keep running forever.