NFC West Preview

We're into the second half of my NFL preview, today taking on the best division in football. Last season the NFC West was responsible for both participants in the NFC Championship Game, and the third place team Arizona managed to win ten games before falling short of the playoffs. Last year these teams combined to go 30-10 in games against teams from other divisions, and they should be nearly as dominant this season.

Seattle Seahawks

Reason to be excited: Legion of Boom

This one is easy. Seattle has a historically great secondary, and the team will have a chance for as long as they can shut down opposing passing games. Richard Sherman has seen to it that he receives all the attention, but he probably isn’t even the best player in the secondary. That would be Earl Thomas, the safety that mans the deep middle of the field allowing the cornerbacks to cover as little ground as necessary as they cling to the sidelines. Their other safety, Kam Chancellor, isn’t as good a player as Sherman and Thomas, but he has a well earned reputation as the most physical safety in the NFL. The one question is at the other cornerback position, where they lost both Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond to free agency. But the Seattle coaching staff has shown consistent ability to churn out high quality cornerbacks, and Byron Maxwell was starting at a high level by the end of last season. As long as this unit is together, Seattle will have one of the best pass defenses in football.

Reason to be nervous: Running Game

Seattle’s offense is built around its rushing attack. Seattle was one of only two teams in the league last year to run the ball more often than they passed it (the other being San Francisco) and they used play action on a higher percentage of plays than any other team in the league. Their offensive line is below average, but they found success with this style thanks to Marshawn Lynch, who led the league with 59 broken tackles. But Lynch slowed down as the season went on, not breaking one hundred yards in any of his last six regular season games. He rebounded with a strong postseason, but there have to be concerns about a running back in his late twenties who has taken as much of a pounding as Lynch has.

Impact Rookie: Justin Britt

Seattle’s offensive line is not very good, and it hasn’t taken long for Britt to slide into the starting role at right tackle. A second round pick out of Missouri, Britt is ideally suited to play this position in the NFL, and he should have only minor growing pains as he adjusts to the professional level. If he can develop into an average player, Seattle has a chance to turn around the weakest part of their roster from last year. It isn’t ideal to be so dependent on a second round pick, but Seattle can’t continue to play with fire behind such a questionable line. Sooner or later it will hurt their offense, unless Britt can step up and give them a quality player opposite Russell Okung.

Player to Watch: Bruce Irvin

Outside linebacker is probably the least glamorous position on Seattle’s defense, but it also might be the most crucial to its success. The cornerbacks get all the attention, but in their Cover 3 scheme they really don’t have much responsibility. They have to guard against fades and deep outs, and anything underneath is not their concern. The responsibility for covering the flats falls to the outside linebackers, who have to cover an incredible amount of ground in pass coverage. This is the vulnerability of their defense, and smart teams will attack them in the flats this season. The success of their defense depends on how their linebackers hold up. Irvin is one of these linebackers, a first round pick back in 2012 who was chosen more for his pass rushing abilities. He may get to do more of that with Chris Clemons out of the picture, but his primary asset is his athleticism in pass coverage. He is one of the few linebackers in the league with the speed to cover the ground required by Seattle’s defense, and he is the piece that allows their cornerbacks to play as they do.

Prediction:

Seattle will take a small step back this year. Teams will start to figure out how to attack them, and they will be forced to make adjustments on the fly. They are still an incredibly talented team and should have no trouble coasting to the playoffs, but they might falter in a game or two, perhaps costing themselves their precious home field advantage when it comes time for the playoffs. They are still one of the best teams in the league, but the fight to get out of the NFC is going to be even more brutal this year than it was in 2013. Winning a Super Bowl is hard, and repeating is even harder. After a long playoff run last year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Seahawks bow out in the first round.

San Francisco 49ers

 

Reason to be excited: Receiver Depth

San Francisco has been a run heavy team over the past few years, largely by necessity. The wide received position has been barren for them since Jim Harbaugh arrived, but this season they finally have the pieces they need for a dangerous passing attack. Vernon Davis has never put up great receiving numbers, but he is still a dangerous and versatile threat at the tight end position. Michael Crabtree is back to full strength, and his rapport with Kaepernick will finally let him emerge as one of the league’s elite receivers. And for the first time they have genuine depth on the outside, with Anquan Boldin and Stevie Johnson bringing veteran skills to their offense. They will be able to expand their offense into a dangerous passing attack, provided Kaepernick can take advantage of the promise he has shown so far in his career.

Reason to be nervous: Kaepernick’s Burden

San Francisco’s success over the past few years has come thanks to a strong running game and a dominant defense. The quarterback hasn’t played a major role in their success (as evidenced by the seamless transition between Alex Smith and Kaepernick in 2012), but they will need more from the position this year. Frank Gore has been slowing down for a while, and their offensive line is facing questions at center and right guard. On defense Justin Smith is no longer the dominant player he was a couple years ago, and they will be missing Navarro Bowman and Aldon Smith for the early part of the season. They still have the talent to go deep into the playoffs, but they are going to need Kaepernick to live up to the promise he has showed in his early career.

Impact Rookie: Chris Borland

We still don’t know how long Bowman will be gone, and until he returns the 49ers will be relying on a rookie out of Wisconsin at inside linebacker. Fortunately for Borland, he couldn’t be stepping into a better situation. San Francisco’s depth up front means he likely won’t have to play in passing situations, preventing his struggles in coverage from being exposed. It also won’t hurt that he’ll be stepping in beside Patrick Willis, the best inside linebacker in the game and one of the best of all time. Borland won’t be able to match Bowman’s productivity, but he should be more than serviceable until Bowman is fully healthy.

Player to Watch: Stevie Johnson

I have my questions about Kaepernick, but I still think he is the best quarterback Johnson has ever played with. Johnson has a reputation as a receiver who has never been as productive as he should be, given his athletic talents and his ability as a route runner. In Buffalo he was hamstrung by being the only target on an offense without a reliable distributor. In San Francisco he is likely the number four option in the passing game, an interesting tool in one of the most creative offensive schemes in the league. San Francisco hasn’t used a lot of three receiver sets over the past few years, but I expect we will see more of that now that they have the personnel to do so. If they use Johnson properly, they can have a very dangerous and versatile passing attack.

Prediction:

San Francisco will get off to a rough start this year, but by the end of the season they will be a Super Bowl contender. Until Bowman and Smith return sometime midseason this defense will not be the elite unit we’ve seen over the past few years, and they will need a few weeks to work out the kinks in their offense. Eventually their defense will come together and Jim Harbaugh will figure out how to get the most out of the offense, but their margin for error is incredibly slim if they want to win the division. A couple bad losses early in the year could doom them to a Wild Card spot while Seattle coasts on a more even road to the division title.

Arizona Cardinals

 

Reason to be excited: Offense Coming Together

The Cardinals have been criminally awful on offense since Kurt Warner left, but this year it looks like they finally have a chance to change that. Larry Fitzgerald is still around, but he is no longer the only threat on this side of the ball. 2012 first round pick Michael Floyd came on strong down the stretch last year, and they have a couple more intriguing young receivers on the roster (one of whom I’ll touch on below.) Andre Ellington looked like a dangerous two way player in the limited opportunities he received last year, and even Carson Palmer was playing well by the time the season came to a close. Adding Jared Veldheer will finally give them a competent player on the offensive line, and if last year’s first round pick Jonathan Cooper can come back from his broken leg, they will have a very strong left side of the offensive line. There is a lot to like about this team’s offense, for the first time in years.

Reason to be nervous: Defensive Interior

The Cardinals let starting inside linebacker Karlos Dansby go this offseason after signing him to a one year deal, trusting that last year’s second round pick Kevin Minter could step into his shoes. This was a fine plan, until they learned that their other starting inside linebacker Daryl Washington, one of the better inside linebackers in the game, would miss the entire season due to a drug related suspension. This past week they lost long time nose tackle Darnell Dockett to a torn ACL, meaning they will now have three brand new starters in the middle of their defense. They still have great players in Patrick Peterson and Calais Campbell, but what made their defense truly elite last year was its ability to stuff the run. Without these players, I would expect a significant fall off from one of the best defenses in the league.

Impact Rookie: John Brown

I was tempted to cheat and list Jonathan Cooper, last year’s first round pick who missed the entire season with a broken leg. But I’ve heard nothing but good things about Brown since the start of Cardinals training camp, and I think there is a very good chance he gets to see the field as the team’s third wide receiver this season. He isn’t a particularly big receiver, but he ran a sub 4.4 in the forty, and he has been productive in the chances he’s received during the preseason. With a veteran quarterback under center and a pair of physically imposing targets on the outside, Brown could turn Arizona into the most dangerous passing attack in the division.

Player to Watch: Jonathan Cooper

Since I won’t talk about him as a rookie to watch, I’ll discuss Cooper here. Cooper was the most highly touted guard to enter the draft in years, going off the board at number seven in 2013. Scouts raved about his athleticism and his ability to swallow defenders in space, but we never got a chance to see that from him last year. He broke his leg in the preseason and missed the entire season, and even a year later there are still concerns about how the injury is affecting him. The track record for offensive linemen who injure their legs is not pretty. Jake Long hasn’t been the same since repeatedly suffering minor injuries in Miami, and 2011 Packers first round selection Derek Sherrod is just now coming back after suffering a similar injury to Coopers. Arizona needs Cooper to perform at the high level they expected when they drafted him, but so far this training camp he has struggled to recover from the injury. Hopefully this is temporary, but if it isn’t it will be a major blow to Arizona’s future.

Prediction:

This is so tough for Arizona. Last year they won ten games and still came up short of the playoffs, and I could see them suffering a similar fate this year. The NFC is just too competitive right now, and the NFC West is too loaded for them to accumulate enough wins to push for the playoffs. I’m not ruling out a playoff push—this team is even better than the one that came within a game of making it last season—but they remain a rung below San Francisco and Seattle. Until one of those teams falls off, Arizona will likely be stuck a win or two away from the postseason.

St Louis Rams

Reason to be excited: Robert Quinn

Quinn was the best defensive player in football last year. Luke Keuchly won Defensive Player of the Year, Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas led one of the best defenses the league has ever seen, and JJ Watt was dominant even on one of the worst teams in the league. But none of them dominated their position quite like Quinn. He put up nineteen sacks last year, and it somehow seems like he should have had even more. He tore apart every offensive lineman he faced, and in Week Eight he almost single handedly beat the Seahawks (Seattle had 135 yards of total offense, and that includes an 80 yard touchdown on a pass that probably should have been intercepted.) Right now he is the best pure pass rusher in the league, and with the talent around him I expect him to make a serious run at the single season sack record.

Reason to be nervous: Failure to develop offensive talent

The Rams have spent a number of high picks on skill position players over the past few years, and right now they have very little to show for it. Tavon Austin didn’t do much his rookie season after being selected eighth overall. Since 2011 they have spent six picks in the first four rounds on wide receivers (plus a second rounder on tight end Lance Kendricks) and they still haven’t seen a receiver gain more than 700 yards since Torry Holt in 2008. They spent a second round pick on Isaiah Pead and a third rounder on Tre Mason, but their main runner will likely be Zac Stacy, who they found in the fifth round. They have had so many opportunities to develop weapons for their quarterbacks to work with, and right now you can only blame the coaching staff for the failures they’ve suffered.

Impact Rookie: Aaron Donald

This is simple. Donald was one of the best players in the draft, and he’s joining one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. The only thing that could stop him from being incredibly productive is a struggle for playing time, but I think he’ll be able to do enough to have an impact even if he only sees the field on half the plays. With Robert Quinn and Chris Long on the outside he will rarely see double teams, and he has enough technique and speed to blow past most of the interior linemen in the NFL.I would be stunned to see him finish with fewer than seven sacks, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he reached double digits.

Player to Watch: Janoris Jenkins

Jenkins may have the easiest job in the league. Nothing helps a cornerback like a great pass rush, and St Louis has one of the best pass rushes the league has seen in decades. But the rest of their defense is fairly mediocre, and they will need someone to step up in the back seven if they want to be an elite unit. A former second round pick who fell because of character concerns, Jenkins is the player most capable of developing into a high quality starter. He has showed flashes through his first two seasons, and if he can fine tune his technique, he is in an excellent position to become one of the most successful cornerbacks in the NFL. With the pass rush he has in front of him, he will only need to be slightly above average to shut down any receiver placed across from him.

Prediction:

Last year the St Louis defensive line stepped up and asserted itself as one of the best in the NFL, and this year I expect their defense as a whole to make a similar, if smaller, leap. But the weakness of their offense and the difficulty of their schedule will hold the team back from any significant improvement. They will struggle to reach eight wins, and I don’t think their prospects have changed much with the loss of Sam Bradford. This was always going to be a mediocre team. They will end up with a draft pick around the middle of the first round, but with all the extra picks they’ve received over the past couple years they should be in position to trade up into the top ten. Bradford has likely played his last game as a Ram, and they will need to invest in a new young quarterback before next season.