AFC East Preview

Here's the third part of my NFL preview series, covering the AFC East. As before, if you've read the earlier parts you can skip over the italicized sections. If not, you might want to read them so you have an idea what I'm breaking down.

I will break down each of these teams individually. I will start by listing reasons for this team to be excited and then reasons for them to be nervous, looking at the possible upsides and potential downsides of these rosters. I will then identify the rookie from their draft class who I think will make the most immediate impact. This doesn’t mean that I think these rookies will have the best long term careers, just that they will contribute the most this season. I will then identify one player to watch on each team. In some cases this will be a superstar who doesn’t receive the proper attention. In others it will be a player who I think is ready for a breakout season. And some will be players who could be great or could be disasters, players whose performance will play a major role in deciding their team’s season.

After that I will give a general prediction for each of these teams. I won’t try to predict their final records (with the randomness of a 16 game season this can only make me look like an idiot) but I will order the teams based on how I believe they will finish in the division, from first to last as you read. I will also try to address how these teams are set up long term, but my primary focus is on the 2014 season.

New England Patriots

Reason to be excited: Health

New England suffered enormous injury troubles last season, and it was only through a remarkable coaching job that they managed to earn the second seed and make it to the AFC Championship Game. A lot of focus is going to the return of Rob Gronkowski (and to questions about whether he can remain healthy) but their offense may benefit just as much from the health of Sebastian Vollmer, one of the best right tackles in the league. On the defensive side of the ball they will be getting Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork, two established veterans up the middle. It will be interesting to see how they recover from their injuries—Mayo has missed time with new injuries already, and Wilfork was slowing down even before his injury. But it will definitely be an improvement over the late round picks and street free agents they ran out on defense last year.

Reason to be nervous: Offensive Firepower

I’ve expressed my questions about Tom Brady in other articles, but even if he plays at the exact same level he did last season, the Patriots will be in trouble. Their defense is no longer good enough to carry an average offense, and they don’t have a good enough running game to run a truly balanced scheme. If they want to keep up with the Broncos, they need to be able to create explosive plays through the passing game. They need Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins to step up, and they need Brady to be the player he was two or three years ago. Most importantly, they need Rob Gronkowski to stay healthy, otherwise they will struggle to keep up with elite offenses.

Impact Rookie: James White

The Patriots won’t get much from their rookies this season. Dominique Easley is still recovering from his torn ACL last year, and Jimmy Garoppolo is a long term project. The one player who might be able to give them some production is White, a running back selected in the fourth round out of Wisconsin. White is undersized, and his speed isn’t anything special. But he was a productive player at Wisconsin, and his intelligence should allow him to contribute in New England fairly quickly. The Patriots are not a team that features a single running back, and White’s versatility will allow him to slide into the rotation with Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley.

Player to Watch: Brandon Browner

It seems strange now, but a couple seasons ago there was a genuine question whether Richard Sherman was a better cornerback than Browner. Since then Browner has fallen from notoriety, as a combination of suspensions and injuries knocked him out of favor in Seattle. New England snatched him up in the hope they could get the player who was so promising three years ago. It will be interesting to see what kind of success Browner finds in New England, especially since we have yet to see one of Seattle’s cornerbacks succeed when taken out of their unique defensive system. If the Patriots are smart (they are) they will find a way to integrate parts of that scheme without neutralizing their other cornerback, Darrelle Revis. Browner will see a lot of passes thrown his way, and if he can hold up, the Patriots might have a secondary capable of slowing down Peyton Manning and the Broncos.

Prediction:

The Patriots will win the division again because they are the Patriots and because this is the AFC East. The weak competition around them may even be enough to push them into a first round bye again, and at that point I wouldn’t rule out a Super Bowl run. But I think this is a team with a definite ceiling, far short of the Broncos and several NFC teams. Bill Belichick will push them right up to that ceiling, but they will need several unproven players to take tremendous leaps if they want to emerge from this season with anything more than a division title.

Miami Dolphins

Reason to be excited: Semi-Competence on the Offensive Line

For most of the teams I’m writing about, the “Reason to be excited” section covers something they do better than most of the other teams in the league. For Miami, I’m going with something they do that isn’t worse than every other team in the league. Their offensive line was stunningly terrible last season, even before they became entangled in the hazing controversy. Ryan Tannehill was sacked 58 times, and they could not run the ball at all. They made it a priority to address the position this offseason, signing free agent Branden Albert to play left tackle and drafting Jawuan James to play on the right side. Mike Pouncey will miss the first few weeks, but once he returns they have the potential to put together a genuinely league average offensive line.

Reason to be nervous: Growth of Ryan Tannehill

There was a point last season where it looked like Tannehill was ready to make the next step, but the final two weeks could not have gone any worse for him. With a chance to make the playoffs the Dolphins scored a total of seven points between two games against the Jets and the Bills. Any progress Tannehill had made during the season was immediately negated by these two wretched performances. Last season he had the excuse of the worst offensive line in the league, and now that the Dolphins have addressed this problem, the pressure is on him to produce. If he can’t do that, Miami will be looking for a new quarterback next season.

Impact Rookie: Jawuan James

James wasn’t projected to go in the first round by most scouts, but the Dolphins decided to take him because they believe he is ready to contribute right away. Unlike most tackles taken in the first round, he spent his final season in college playing on the right side, the position he will slide into in Miami. The differences between the tackle positions are subtle, but they can make a difference for rookies who are forced to make the transition. James should have a better start to his career than the tackles taken ahead of him in the draft, even though he will likely never develop into anything more than a capable starter on the right side.

Player to Watch: Mike Wallace

I’m not the only one predicting a bounce back season for Wallace. He was a disappointment his first season in Miami, after they gave him one of the largest free agent contracts ever given to a wide receiver. It would have been difficult for him to live up to that contract even at his best, and he was far from his best last year. He was another player hurt by the disaster that was Miami’s offensive line. Their inability to protect Tannehill robbed the offense of their deep passing game, an area where Wallace contributes most of his production. With more time in the pocket Tannehill should be able to take advantage of his fantastic arm strength to hit Wallace streaking down the field.

Prediction:

I predicted the Dolphins to make the playoffs last season, and they came up a little short. They will definitely be in the hunt again this year, and I expect them to falter down the stretch again. Tannehill could bounce back from his late season woes and turn into the sort of quarterback who can lead them to the playoffs (not particularly challenging in the weak AFC) but I would count on him being at best an average quarterback. They have the worst defense in the division, and the best collection of skill position talent won’t be able to help them if they don’t have a quality distributor. A playoff run isn’t out of the question, but I think they end up a win or two short.

New York Jets

Reason to be excited: Defensive Line

Sheldon Richardson was the best rookie in the league last season, and he should develop into a Pro Bowl caliber player this season, a dominant foce against both the run and the pass. Muhammad Wilkerson is one of the best defensive players in the NFL, even if no one seems to realize it (I’ll have more to say on him below.) These two can fill any number of roles in either a 3-4 or a 4-3, and they give Rex Ryan incredible leeway to run the most creative defense in the league. They still have questions about their edge pass rushers, but Quinton Coples could still develop into the player they hoped he would be when they spent a first round pick on him.

Reason to be nervous: Run Game

It’s difficult to make the playoffs when you don’t have a good quarterback, but it is possible. The recipe requires a dominant defense and a run game that can provide offense when the passing attack flounders. The Jets have the first, but unlike when they made the AFC Championship Game during Ryan’s first two seasons, they don’t have a running game to support their offense. D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold still have great reputations, but they’ve been average at best the past few years. They haven’t had an above average running back since letting Thomas Jones go, and I doubt bringing in Chris Johnson will help this year. Johnson is a dominant player when he has a line to open wide holes, but when he faces any adversity he struggles to pick up even three yards. If the Jets can put together an above average running game they can make a push towards the playoffs, but I don’t see this happening.

Impact Rookie: Calvin Pryor

Rex Ryan’s very first draft pick was Mark Sanchez. Since then, every first round selection has been on the defensive side of the ball. So it wasn’t a surprise when, even with all the holes on their offense, they decided to take a safety with their first selection. Pryor hasn’t made his way into the starting lineup yet, but I’ll stick with him as the impact rookie mostly because I don’t expect much from anyone else in their class. Pryor will get the opportunity to start at some point this year, and he will likely make a lot of mistakes when he gets the chance. But he will also create a number of explosive plays, flying all over the field to deliver devastating hits and create turnovers.

Player to Watch: Muhammad Wilkerson

As I said above, Wilkerson is one of the best defensive players in the NFL. It could be argued that he is more valuable to his defense than any other player in the league. Everything the Jets do revolves around his versatility, putting him anywhere on the defensive line and trusting him to beat the man in front of him. He can penetrate up the gut, he can hold up against the run, and he can pressure the quarterback around the edge. This is the year when he should finally receive the attention he deserves, though that was what everyone said last year.

Prediction:

The Jets could make a playoff push, but I think they’ll end up on the outside looking in again. They still have too many issues on the offensive side of the ball and in the back end of their defense. They’ll be able to shut down mediocre offenses, but a quality team will be able to put up points by attacking their flawed secondary. Their only hope is if Geno Smith shows himself to be capable of making enough plays to lead the offense, something I highly doubt. I think Smith cuts down on his turnover problems from last year, but I don’t see him suddenly developing into a playmaker of the sort their offense needs. The Jets have a few good pieces on offense, but they don’t have enough to form a unit strong enough to get them into the playoffs.

Buffalo Bills

Reason to be excited: Underrated Defense

Based on DVOA—an advanced metric that measures teams based on success and strength of competition—the Bills ranked fourth in the NFL in defense last year, behind only Seattle, Arizona, and Carolina. That is incredible company, and no one seems to realize how fantastic Buffalo’s defense was last season. They had one of the best pass rushes in the league, with four different players putting up more than seven sacks. Their secondary finally came together thanks to their young talent, and Kiko Alonso looked promising at linebacker before falling off later in the year. The Bills did suffer two major losses on this side of the ball—their best player Jairus Byrd and their coordinator Mike Pettine—but they have enough talent that they could very easily be a top ten defense again this year.

Reason to be nervous: Question of EJ Manuel

Has anyone outside the Bills organization ever considered Manuel to be a top quarterback prospect? Most people agree he was overdrafted when taken sixteenth overall in 2013, and I don’t remember any great expectations going into last season. No one seems to be expecting any sort of breakout from him in his second year, yet no one is talking about him as a bust either. He seems to have skipped past the early stages of a quarterback’s career and moved into Schaub/Cassel territory as a quarterback who will start because his team doesn’t have any other option. Does he have any chance to develop into a star? Or have we already moved past those expectations for 2013’s only first round quarterback?

Impact Rookie: Sammy Watkins

The Bills gave up way more than was reasonable to get Watkins, and if he doesn’t perform this season they will really miss their first round pick next year. Fortunately, they got a player who looks like he will be a contributor right away. He has flashed plenty of ridiculous plays so far through training camp, though he had to leave his last preseason game with an injury. He should be fine by the start of the season, at which point he will become the team’s top receiving threat. He will have his struggles, as most rookie receivers do, but he’ll perform well enough that the team will at least be able to try to justify the lack of a pick next year.

Player to Watch: Kyle Williams

What is it with dominant interior defensive linemen in this division not being recognized? Kyle Williams has been one of the best defensive tackles in the league over the past four seasons, but most people probably think of the overrated Mario when they hear about a Williams in Buffalo. Kyle is far and away the best player on one of the best defensive lines in the league, tying for the league lead in sacks from a defensive tackle last season. He is the heart and soul of one of the league’s best pass rushes, and it’s time for people to recognize how fantastic a football player he is.

Prediction:

I’ve seen some people projecting the Bills to wind up with the first overall selection. That’s not going to happen, but they won’t be in playoff contention either. They have enough solid veterans on both their offensive and their defensive lines to keep the bottom from falling out, but they don’t have the sort of elite, established players who can help them make a playoff push. They will wind up as they have eight of the past nine years, earning a draft pick between number eight and number twelve. The difference is that this year they don’t have their own first round pick, which will prevent them from adding another potentially elite player. I don’t think the future is particularly bright for the Bills, unless EJ Manuel makes an unexpected leap.