The NFL Draft is this Thursday,
and I cannot understate how excited I am. I’ve been counting down to this day
since the free agency frenzy wound down, and it certainly has taken its time
getting here. A couple weeks ago I was excited to have the extra time to study
the players coming into the league, but now I just want to get on with my life
(let’s just pretend I have a life to get on with, okay.)
When it comes to mock drafts, the
biggest question any person has to answer is whether they are doing a projection
based on what they think will happen
or what they think should happen.
Most try to find a compromise, but I decided just to split my efforts into two
separate mock drafts. Today I will go through what would happen if I was in
charge of every team making the picks, and tomorrow I will post what I actually
think will occur. I kept my explanations relatively short on each team, but if
you want to read more of my thoughts on the players and the teams in the draft,
here are the articles I’ve published so far.
One important detail: I don’t
believe in projecting trades in mock drafts. I find it more fun to operate
within the constraints of the draft order, even though the teams in the league
won’t do it. Neither of my mocks will include a trade, though I will mention
several that make sense.
Again, this isn’t what I think
will happen. This is what I think should happen.
1) Houston
Texans – Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
I’ve made no secret of my love
for Bridgewater,
even as he has fallen on all other draft boards. To me the most important
aspect of quarterback play is accuracy, and Bridgewater is one of the most accurate
passers I have ever seen. Even if he occasionally struggles with the deep ball,
he will more than make up for it with his precision to all other areas of the
field. Houston
is nowhere near as bad as their record last year indicated, and with quality
quarterback play they can compete for a playoff spot in a weak conference next
season.
2) St Louis
Rams – Jake Matthews, OT, Texas
A&M
Matthews isn’t the best player
left on the board, but he is the best that fits the Rams roster. They have the
best pair of defensive ends in the league and would add very little by drafting
Clowney. They have invested high picks in wide receivers each of the past two
drafts, and they need to stick with those players through their development.
They might be able to find space for Khalil Mack, but I think it would be
smarter to grab Matthews to fill one of the holes on their offensive line. He
will likely start at right tackle his first couple years before displacing Jake
Long on the left side and locking down that position for the next decade.
3) Jacksonville
Jaguars – Jadeveon Clowney, DE,
South Carolina
Jacksonville
needs a quarterback every bit as badly as Houston,
but they have a lot more holes to fill. No matter who they add they will not be
competing for the playoffs this season, so they should just take the best
player available. Clowney is head and shoulders above the rest of the draft
class, a rare combination of athleticism and technique. Houston
is getting a franchise quarterback and Indianapolis
already has one, and if Jacksonville
wants to compete down the road they will need to find some way to slow down
their division rivals. They can grab a quarterback in the second round and use
a couple years to build their roster before deciding if they need to invest a top
pick in a quarterback.
4) Cleveland Browns
– Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas
A&M
The Browns are closer to the
Texans than they are to the Jaguars. They have one of the most talented
defenses in the league, and their offense looks like it is starting to come
together as well. Joe Thomas continues to be a dominant presence on the left
side, and Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron were among the most dangerous weapons
in the league last year even without a quarterback. I don’t think Cleveland is the best fit for Manziel—he needs an
organization with more structure and cohesion—but he is undoubtedly the best
quarterback after Bridgewater.
With Manziel the Browns can be competitive this season, and for years to come.
5) Oakland
Raiders – Sammy Watkins
Like Jacksonville,
Oakland needs
to take the best player on the board. That player is Watkins, a wonderfully
versatile wide receiver who will bring some excitement to their offense for the
first time since the Rich Gannon era. They still need someone to throw him the
ball, someone to block up front, someone to run the ball, someone to stuff the
run, and someone to cover opposing receivers, but Watkins is a decent start.
6) Atlanta
Falcons – Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo
Atlanta has two pressing needs: pass rusher
and offensive line. They could address either here, but I have them going with
Khalil Mack over Taylor Lewan. Mack is a more complete player, a dangerous
force against the run in addition to his abilities as a pass rusher. Atlanta’s free agent
signings suggest that they will be using a 3-4 scheme more often this season,
which will play perfectly into Mack’s skillset. This pick is an absolute steal
at number six.
7) Tampa
Bay Buccaneers – Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
Off the field issues have dropped
Lewan in the draft, but they don’t concern me too much. He allegedly assaulted
a couple of Ohio State fans, which I truly didn’t realize
was a criminal act. I am willing to overlook this indiscretion, especially when
I watch him drop into a pass set. He is a better pass blocker than Matthews,
and he isn’t a liability in the running game either. The Buccaneers let Donald Penn
go this offseason and replaced him with Anthony Collins, but they still have a
significant hole at one of their tackle positions.
8) Minnesota
Vikings – Blake Bortles, QB, UCF
Perhaps I am just an optimist,
but I think the Vikings could be just as competitive as the Browns or the
Texans with quality quarterback play. Their team played dismally last year, but
they have a lot of young talent ready to burst onto the scene. Bortles isn’t
the ideal player to shepherd this emergence—he is too raw and will likely need
a year or two to develop—but the talent there is undeniable. He could easily
wind up as a bust, but if he lives up to his potential the Vikings will be one
of the best teams in the league three or four years from now.
9) Buffalo
Bills – Marqise Lee, WR, USC
The Bills drafted EJ Manuel in
the first round last year, and now they need to get him some help. They don’t
need a wide receiver as desperately as they need an offensive lineman, but both
the linemen worth taking in the top ten are already off the board. Instead they
will settle for Lee, a player who was projected as a top ten pick after stellar
freshman and sophomore seasons. He now looks like he could fall to the second
round, but I still think he is the second best receiver in this class. He will
have an immediate positive impact on the Bills offense, and he will give them a
chance to figure out whether or not Manuel is their answer at quarterback.
10) Detroit
Lions – Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan
State
The Lions seem to believe that
they don’t need a cornerback, but they are terribly mistaken. With their
defensive line they should be dominating games defensively, but the holes in
their coverage give the opposing quarterback an easy out whenever he feels
pressure in his face. Dennard is as ready to play in the NFL as any player in
this draft, and picking him will allow the Lions to immediately seal these
holes. It might be enough to push them into the playoffs next season, which
would make up for Dennard’s lack of long term upside.
11) Tennessee
Titans – Anthony Barr, DE/OLB, UCLA
This is one spot where what I
think should happen overlaps with what most people think will happen. Barr is
one of the most talented players in the draft, but he is also one of the least
experienced and skilled. It will take two or three years for him to reach his
potential, but once he does he could be every bit as good as Clowney or Mack.
The Titans are right in the middle of a long rebuilding process, and they can
afford to let him develop while they add talent on both sides of the ball. It
will be interesting to see how they fit him into a defense that doesn’t exactly
suit his talents, but I have faith that either this coaching staff or the next
will find a way to get the most out of Barr.
12) New York
Giants – Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
I believe Donald is one of the
ten best players in the draft, and the only reason I have him falling this far
is because the teams in slots seven through eleven are all set at the three
technique. A lack of positional versatility will cause Donald to slide down the
draft, but it won’t stop a team with a hole at defensive tackle from drafting
him. The Giants certainly have such a hole, and they will be fortunate to have
a chance to draft Donald. In recent years they have built their defense around
a dangerous pass rush, and for the first time they will have a chance to bring
in an interior linemen as skilled as the edge rushers they have cycled through
over past fifteen years.
13) St Louis
Rams – Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama
After addressing their biggest
offensive hole with their first selection, the Rams should find a way to fix
one of the vulnerabilities in their defense. Their line is fantastic, and they
spent a first round pick last year on Alec Ogletree to play next to James
Laurinaitis at linebacker. That leaves the secondary, where they are in
desperate need of someone to protect them over the top. Clinton-Dix specializes
in disciplined coverage in the deep zone, and he should be able to hold down
the big plays while the monsters up front chase down the quarterback.
14) Chicago
Bears – Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville
The entire defense was a mess
last year in Chicago,
but at no position was it worse than safety. Chris Conte is the number one
reason the Packers made the playoffs, and they have done next to nothing to
address the position so far this offseason. They would love to see Clinton-Dix
fall to them, but with him gone they will reach for Pryor, a player who is less
reliable but has higher upside. He will probably be burned in coverage almost
as often as their safeties last year, but he will at least be able to make the
occasional big play to offset his weakness. In time they should be able to
develop him into a dangerous weapon on the back end of their defense.
15) Pittsburgh
Steelers – Eric Ebron, TE, North
Carolina
When Ben Roethlisberger came into
the league his rookie season, his favorite target was six foot five Plaxico
Burress. Burress left after that one season, and Roethlisberger has been forced
to utilize smaller, quicker receivers ever since. He has made it clear this
offseason that he wants a larger target to throw to. Letting your quarterback dictate
your draft is normally a bad idea, but in this case it will lead to a good
result. Ebron will be the perfect large target for Roethlisberger, working
primarily as a receiver for the first couple years as he develops his skills as
a blocker under the tutelage of Heath Miller.
16) Dallas
Cowboys – Ra’Shede Hageman, DE/DT, Minnesota
I can think of few teams that
need help on defense more desperately than the Cowboys. A unit already devoid
of talent lost both DeMarcus Ware and Jason Hatcher to free agency, and if they
want to rebuild they will have to start on the line. Hageman has the talent to
be selected in the top ten, but he lacks the consistency and the attitude to be
considered a dominant player. The team that takes him will have to hope that
they can coach his full potential out of him. I’m not sure that the Cowboys are
the team to do this, but it is worth the gamble.
17) Baltimore
Ravens – Mike Evans, WR, Texas
A&M
I’m not as high on Evans as most
people. I love his upside, and he certainly boasts a rare combination of size
and speed, but I can’t invest a top ten pick in a receiver who can only run two
or three routes. He will be perfect for the Ravens at number seventeen however,
lining up across the field from Torrey Smith to give them the best deep ball
combination in the league to complement the best deep ball thrower in the
league. Wide receiver isn’t a position of huge need after the Steve Smith
acquisition, but with the other uncertainties on their offense it is a good
idea to try to add another weapon.
18) New York
Jets – Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon
State
The lack of skill position talent
on the Jets last year was staggering, and the acquisition of Eric Decker
doesn’t come close to fixing their problems. Whether their quarterback next
year is Geno Smith or Michael Vick, they are going to need someone to throw the
ball to. Cooks is a very similar player to Vick’s former teammate Desean
Jackson, and he should be able to stretch the field while Decker operates as
more of a possession receiver.
19) Miami
Dolphins – Zack Martin, OT, Notre Dame
Last season the Dolphins were
involved in a hazing scandal with disturbing racial undertones, and it was only
the second biggest disaster involving their offensive line. The fact that Ryan
Tannehill can still walk is a minor miracle. They added Branden Albert to lock down
the left tackle position, but that still leaves them with holes at right tackle
and at both guards. Martin can step in and play any of these positions, and
with Albert in place they don’t have to worry about his occasional struggles as
a pass protector on the blind side. This is as ideal a fit as there is in this
draft.
20) Arizona
Cardinals – Dee Ford, DE/OLB, Auburn
The Cardinals are a puzzling
team, with a number of minor holes but no glaring weaknesses. They have a lot
of young players who may or may not develop over the next few years, but for
right now they just have to wait and see. I considered grabbing Derek Carr to
sit behind Carson Palmer for the next year or two, but I decided instead to
draft an edge pass rusher. This is the one position that is holding their
defense back from being an elite unit, and last year they were forced to rely
on the surprisingly effective corpse of John Abraham. Ford is a clear step
below the top three pass rushers, but he can still bring a dangerous edge to
the Cardinals defense.
21) Green Bay
Packers – CJ Mosley, LB, Alabama
Mosley’s biggest problem is his
ability to play outside the tackle box, and in my mind that drops him out of
the top twenty. But there is no one in the draft who can stuff the run quite
like he can, and the Packers should leap at the opportunity to close down this
hole in their defense. The past few years their run defense has been
consistently average, but on several occasions they have been torn to pieces by
large, physical runners. Mosley can match these runners and halt them in their
tracks, and the Packers will happily endure the parts of the field he cannot
cover.
22) Philadelphia
Eagles – Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio
State
Drafting Roby is probably the
biggest gamble of the first round. He is one of the finer athletic talents in
the draft, and in 2012 he showed plenty of coverage ability to go along with
that athleticism. In 2013 he was beaten for too many big plays, but if there is
a team in the league that can weather the occasional big play it is Philadelphia. The hope
would be that he can create more game altering moments than he allows. There is
no cornerback in the draft who plays the ball better than Roby, and he should
contribute at least four or five interceptions a year if given a chance to
start.
23) Kansas
City Chiefs – Odell Beckham, WR, LSU
I’m not a huge fan of Odell
Beckham. I see a wide receiver with very little upside, who will struggle if
ever asked to be more than a number two option. Fortunately, he won’t have to
be in Kansas City.
Dwayne Bowe struggled last year mostly due to Alex Smith’s inability to throw
towards the sidelines, and the Chiefs need to find a player who can exploit the
middle of the field. It might be worth reaching for a tight end, but I think
Beckham can attack those similar regions of the field.
24) Cincinnati
Bengals – Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech
A late riser, Fuller has leapt
into the first round thanks to an impressive performance at the NFL Combine. Unlike
the higher touted Justin Gilbert, Fuller shows coverage skills to match his athletic
ability. The Bengals are facing a number of questions at the cornerback
position. The repeated injuries to Leon Hall and the lack of development of Dre
Kirkpatrick have left them uncertain about their future at the position.
Drafting Fuller could clear some of that up and give them a talented young
player to build the back end of their defense around.
25) San Diego
Chargers – Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio
State
San Diego’s most pressing need is at
cornerback, but their defense is so utterly devoid of talent that they need to
simply grab the best defensive player available. That would be Shazier, an
intriguing athletic specimen who can play either inside or outside linebacker.
He ran a sub 4.4 forty at his pro day and looks even faster on the field,
playing from sideline to sideline in a way that most linebackers can’t. He is a
bit of a project, but he is the sort of dynamic player that you can build a
defense around. A couple years down the road he could be one of the five best
defensive players to come out of this class.
26) Cleveland
Browns – Greg Robinson, OL, Auburn
It is a common refrain to say Robinson
“struggles” in pass protection, and this is a rare case where draft criticism
actually undersells a player’s faults. Robinson cannot pass protect whatsoever.
To take a player like that in the top ten is insane, but his athletic ability
makes him worth a risk in the late first round. In Cleveland he won’t get a chance to expose his
quarterback’s backside at left tackle, and there is no better place for him to
develop than at left guard between Pro Bowlers Alex Mack and Joe Thomas. He
might turn out to be a decent tackle three or four years from now, and even if
he doesn’t he’ll make a very good guard.
27) New
Orleans Saints – Louis Nix, DT, Notre Dame
The Saints made a transition to a
3-4 scheme last season, and overall it was a success. Cameron Jordan had a
breakout year, and the entire defense recovered from its brutal 2012 season.
But the one thing they still lack is a run stuffing, blocker eating nose
tackle, and at pick number twenty-seven they are in perfect position to get
such a player. Nix will give their linebackers more room to flow towards the
ball and will prevent the quarterback from stepping up in the pocket as their
edge rushers close in. He won’t make plays as other nose tackles like Vince
Wilfork and Dontari Poe do, but he will make everyone around him better.
28) Carolina
Panthers – Morgan Moses, OT, Virginia
Carolina has urgent needs at both receiver and
offensive tackle, and they will address one of them with their first round
pick. Tackle seems to be the route they are favoring, and with the best
receivers off the board I’ll go the same direction. Moses is a clear step below
Matthews, Lewan, and even Martin, but he should be able to turn into an average
starting left tackle. This low in the draft Carolina can’t expect to do any
better, though they may want to consider moving up to try to snag someone with
higher upside.
29) New England Patriots – Kelvin Benjamin,
WR, Florida State
There are so many ways I could
have gone with this pick. The Patriots have holes at nearly every position, but
they also have possible fixes at nearly every position. Right now they don’t
seem to know whether to go all in during Tom Brady’s final years or to start
rebuilding for the future. I say they should go all in, and they should do so
by getting Brady another weapon to work with. Benjamin isn’t nearly as fast as
Randy Moss but he can fill that role in their offense, a deep play receiver
whose ability to win contested balls gives Brady an out when the pressure
starts to close in. Partnered with their other young weapons and a possibly
healthy Rob Gronkowski, they could pull together an elite offense for another
year or two.
30) San Francisco
49ers – Kony Ealy, DE,
Missouri
Both Justin Smith and Aldon Smith
played their college football at Missouri,
and it seems fitting that the replacement for one of them should come from that
school. Ealy could conceivably fill in for either of them in the NFL, bulking
up to replace Justin Smith once he retires or slimming down to fill Aldon
Smith’s pass rushing role if his off the field issues lead to a parting of
ways. He isn’t nearly as talented as either of the other two, but he is the best
the 49ers will be able to find this late in the draft.
31) Denver
Broncos – Chris Borland, ILB, Wisconsin
The Broncos are going all in over
the next couple seasons, meaning this year they have to draft a player who can
contribute immediately. Borland is such a player, with the intelligence and the
technical skill to make up for his lack of athletic upside. He has little room
to improve in his career, and it is probably a reach to grab him in the first
round. Five years down the road they could regret passing on higher upside
players like Justin Gilbert and Timmy Jernigan. But of the players remaining on
the board, Borland is the one that can do the most to help them win a Super
Bowl this season.
32) Seattle
Seahawks – David Yankey, OG, Stanford
The offensive line is the secret
weakness of Seattle’s
roster. Russell Okung is fantastic at tackle and Max Unger is a solid center,
but at every other position they are below average. With the roster they have
constructed they can afford to reach to fill a need, and Yankey will
immediately make them better in both the run and the pass game. Another option
would be to address some of their losses to free agency on the defensive side
of the ball. They lost two of their top four cornerbacks and two of their top
four defensive ends, but I think these are positions better addressed in later
rounds.
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