Friday, May 9, 2014

First Round Recap



 
Last night was every bit as exciting as I could have possibly anticipated. The first two picks went precisely as planned, but everything after that dissolved into chaos, from Bortles going to the Jaguars, to the Bills trading up for Watkins, to Manziel’s slide down the board, all ending with the Vikings leaping up to grab Bridgewater with the final pick of the first round. It was utter unscripted chaos, and I feel proud that I managed to nail seven of the thirty-two picks with my mock draft.

Below are my reactions to each pick, mostly written up as I was watching the draft. I’ve already covered the players in detail—offensive, defensive, and quarterbacks—so I’ll instead focus on how each selection fits into his new team.

1)      Houston Texans – Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
No surprises here. Clowney is the best player in the draft, and the Texans made him the first pick. Ultimately their only other option would have been to trade the selection, but when no one made a worthwhile offer they decided just to take advantage of this opportunity to add a rare talent. It will be interesting to see how they integrate him into their defense, but it will also be a lot of fun. With JJ Watt and Clowney they have the most physically impressive defensive front in the NFL. They will have to find a way to make their defense work with two extremely talented players best suited for different schemes, but this is a fantastic problem for any defensive coordinator to have.

2)      St Louis Rams – Greg Robinson, OL, Auburn
I’ve made my thoughts perfectly clear on Greg Robinson. I like my offensive linemen to be able to pass block, and Robinson simply cannot do that as a tackle in the NFL. It’s already being reported that the Rams plan to begin with him at guard, which at least means that he won’t get Bradford killed on a regular basis. Maybe he can develop into a reliable tackle down the road, but he will do very little to help them win now, which is important for a coaching staff and front office who are fighting for their jobs this season.

3)      Jacksonville Jaguars – Blake Bortles, QB, UCF
Well, that came out of nowhere. I thought this pick was down to Mack or Watkins. I expected that the Jaguars would wait and get their quarterback in the second round. I’m still not certain this is a great idea, but at least Bortles won’t be under pressure to win immediately. He needs time to develop, and in Jacksonville he will be given more leeway than anywhere else. I think he has a decent chance to develop into a very good starting quarterback, but there is also a decent chance that the Jaguars may need to pick a quarterback again three years from now.

4)      Buffalo Bills – Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson
The Bills needed to get EJ Manuel some help on offense, and they decided to get him the best help in the draft. Watkins is a great addition, and he will immediately bring explosiveness to the perimeter of their offense that they lacked last season. The only problem I have with this is the cost of moving up this far. It is almost always a mistake to give up a future first round selection, and based on the history and roster of the Bills I expect that the Browns just obtained a top fifteen selection next year.

5)      Oakland Raiders – Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo
The Raiders tried desperately to trade this pick, but they didn’t get an offer they felt was worthwhile. I’m surprised no one was willing to give up a future first round pick for Mack, but since no one did this was a no brainer decision for the Raiders. Mack was the best player available, even though he plays the one position that seems relatively set in Oakland. They signed Lamarr Woodley and Justin Tuck in free agency, and I really like last year’s third round pick Sio Moore as an outside linebacker. But I can’t fault them for taking one of the four best players in the draft when he fell to them.

6)      Atlanta Falcons – Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M
This is another predictable pick. Matthews is the best player left on the board, and he fits a clear need on the Falcons team. He is the most complete offensive lineman in the draft, and he can step in at either tackle this season. Matt Ryan doesn’t have great escapability, and his sack numbers have increased every year he’s been in the league. They need to protect the face of their franchise, and they drafted a player who can help them do that.

7)      Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M
I don’t have a lot to say about this pick. It was expected, and it fills a major need on Tampa Bay’s offense. With the tall and athletic duo of Evans and Vincent Jackson, Josh McCown has a reasonable facsimile of the offense he found so much success with last year in Chicago. You can protest that they should have done more to diversify the skillsets of their wide receivers, but it’s hard to fault them for taking a playmaker with the upside of Evans.

8)      Cleveland Browns – Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State
I’m not a big fan of Gilbert. In my mind I lump him with Greg Robinson as the most overrated player in the draft. He is big and athletic, but his coverage abilities are lacking. He plays the ball well when it’s in the air but doesn’t make sharp breaks on underneath routes. He doesn’t get his hips turned well and can be beaten over the top. He made up for his mistakes in college thanks to his length and his speed, but against NFL receivers and quarterbacks I expect him to be routinely burned.

9)      Minnesota Vikings – Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA
I’m not sure how the Vikings will fit Barr into their scheme, but there wasn’t a player worth taking here who really fits their needs, so I have no problem with them taking Barr. They have invested a lot into the four players on their defensive line, and if Barr is going to get much playing time he will have to play as a full time linebacker. Mike Zimmer’s defensive scheme doesn’t call for a lot of blitzing, but I have to imagine that will change if they install Barr at linebacker. It will be fun to watch how they use him and Everson Griffen, two freak athletes on the outside.

10)  Detroit Lions – Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina
This is another one that caught me off guard. The Lions retained disappointing first round pick Brandon Pettigrew this offseason, so it is a bit surprising that they would spend a top ten pick on a tight end. They should be able to make it work though, as Ebron and Pettigrew play very different styles. Pettigrew is a good blocker with stones for hands, while Ebron is one of the most gifted receivers in the draft. I don’t exactly have faith that their coaches will use them correctly, but it certainly can be done.

11)  Tennessee Titans – Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
I didn’t see this pick coming, but I really like it. Lewan is the best pass blocker in the draft, and he is great value at number eleven. The only problem I have with this selection is that the Titans really don’t need an offensive lineman. They invested a top ten pick in Chance Warmack last year, and they have given out big free agent contracts to Michael Oher and Andy Levitre over the past two years. Lewan likely won’t get a chance to play until starting left tackle Michael Roos leaves as a free agent after the season. But the Titans franchise has always been built around a strong offensive line, and I still believe Lewan will be a great player long term.

12)  New York Giants – Odell Beckham, WR, LSU
I don’t like Odell Beckham, and I really don’t like him to the Giants. They already have a player who can do everything he does in Reuben Randle. There is no justification for taking a player in the top twelve who tops out as only a number two receiver, especially in a draft where a number two receiver can be found in the second or third round. They absolutely should have taken Aaron Donald, and if they were committed to the idea of a wide receiver they should have gone with the higher upside of Brandin Cooks or Marqise Lee.

13)  St Louis Rams – Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
My God, the Rams have a terrifying defensive line. In addition to the best pair of defensive ends in the league, third year player Michael Brockers has developed into a very good player on the interior. But it is possible that Donald could be the best of all of them. He was the best defensive player in college football last year, he dominated the Senior Bowl, and he tore apart the NFL Combine. He should have gone in the top ten, and my only complaint about this selection is that the Rams have invested so much in one unit while leaving holes across the rest of their roster.

14)  Chicago Bears – Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech
Fuller isn’t quite as long as Justin Gilbert, but in every other way they are very similar players physically. The difference is that Fuller is excellent in coverage in addition to being an elite athlete. He played a great deal of both zone and man coverage in college, and he is as ready to play in the NFL as any cornerback in this draft. It will be interesting to see how the Bears manage a secondary with Jennings, Tillman, and Fuller, but having three quality cornerbacks is never a concern. If they really think Fuller can step into a starting role, they can move the aging Tillman to fill one of their holes at safety.

15)  Pittsburgh Steelers – Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State
This is a reach for Shazier. He is very talented, with stunning speed for a player his size. But he struggles playing through congested areas, and he might not be suited to play inside linebacker in a 3-4 defense. But I have to trust the coaches of the Steelers, especially with the success they had drafting a similar player in Lawrence Timmons in 2007. Shazier is a similar size to Timmons but even faster, and long term he may fill in at the weak side spot while Timmons adds bulk and moves over to the strong side.

16)  Dallas Cowboys – Zach Martin, OL, Notre Dame
To the credit of the Cowboys, they didn’t select Manziel. But they still don’t have anything on defense! Offensive line is not a major hole for them, not considering how devoid of talent their defense is. They could have taken either of the safeties. They could have taken a defensive lineman or a cornerback or somebody who would give them some hope of stopping an opposing offense. Martin has the potential to be a good tackle or a very good guard, but I have to feel sorry for anyone stuck in the toxic situation that is the Cowboys.

17)  Baltimore Ravens – CJ Mosely, ILB, Alabama
Daryl Smith filled in well at the middle linebacker position last year, but long term Mosely can be a replacement to Ray Lewis, someone to build around as the anchor of their defense. Mosely will stuff up teams that try to run into the heart of their defense, which was a surprising weakness for them last season. He won’t be able to cover ground sideline to sideline in the way Lewis did at the beginning of his career, but he can be as effective as an interior pillar as Lewis was during their most recent Super Bowl run.

18)  New York Jets – Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville
It was always a toss up over which of the top two safeties would go off the board first. The Jets end up deciding that they want the playmaker Pryor over the more reliable Clinton-Dix. Pryor plays much faster on the field than he ran in the Combine, and he can make plays at any level of the defense. The Jets have needs on offense, but they could also use a playmaker in their secondary. It isn’t surprising that Rex Ryan chose to go with a defensive player, as the Jets have gone defense with their last five first round picks.

19)  Miami Dolphins – Ja’Wuan James, OT, Tennessee
Okay, I’ll be completely honest. I had not heard of James when this pick was made. But I have since gone through and watched tape of him from last season, and I saw a player who left me very conflicted. He has outstanding size and physical tools but he struggles with technique. He catches rather than attacks during his pass sets, and he has poor footwork that regularly knocks him off balance. This is a reach at number nineteen, but I can understand why the Dolphins did it. They need immediate improvement on the offensive line, specifically at the right tackle position. The other top tackles in the draft all played on the left side in college, and it will be less adjustment for James, as he played right tackle at Tennessee. This isn’t to say that I agree with the pick—they should have gone with Morgan Moses if they wanted an offensive lineman—but it isn’t as poor a choice as I initially thought.

20)  New Orleans Saints – Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State
I want to take some credit for this one. I had Cooks going to the Saints in my mock draft, though I had them waiting until number twenty-seven to get him. Instead they decided to move up seven spots, sacrificing a third round pick to guarantee that they would be able to draft the player they wanted. Cooks can fill in for the departed Darren Sproles and give Drew Brees the deep threat he’s lacked over the past couple years. He is the sort of player who can immediately contribute on a team competing for a Super Bowl. A third round pick is a reasonable price to pay, especially for a team that has already paid so much this offseason.

21)  Green Bay Packers – Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama
A very good player falls to the Packers, and he happens to fill their most pressing need on defense. A safety over the top will help prevent big plays and give their pass rush more opportunity to get after the quarterback. Clinton-Dix is also capable of dropping into the box and playing in a linebacker role, which will shore up the run defense that has struggled occasionally over the past couple years. The only thing Clinton-Dix lacks is elite speed, and the Packers may have preferred the chance to select Pryor over him. But they took the player who fell into their lap, and I doubt they will regret this selection.

22)  Cleveland Browns – Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M
I really like what the Browns did with their second pick. Manziel is extremely talented with incredible upside, and I wouldn’t have been upset if they had taken him with the fourth overall selection. Getting him at twenty-two is a steal, even though it cost them a third round pick to move up four spots. Manziel could be a bust like the last two quarterbacks they took with the twenty-second pick (Quinn in 2007 and Weeden in 2012, because the world is funny sometimes) but if he finds the same success in the NFL as he did in college he could turn Cleveland into a contender within the next year or two.

23)  Kansas City Chiefs – Dee Ford, OLB, Auburn
This doesn’t make a lot of sense. This is a bit of a reach for Ford, by a team that doesn’t need someone of his skills. He fits well into their 3-4 scheme as an outside linebacker, but they are set at that position with Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. Hali’s contract makes it reasonable to part ways with him after this season, but Ford probably won’t have much chance to contribute during his rookie year. I don’t like this pick for a team that has immediate needs on both lines and at wide receiver.

24)  Cincinnati Bengals – Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State
I laid out my reasons for Dennard to Cincinnati when I projected him here in my mock draft (shameless brag alert!) but I’ll repeat them here. The two positions of real uncertainty for Cincinnati are on their defensive line and in their secondary, but they have a strong track record of finding defensive linemen in later rounds. Dennard fell in the draft because he lacks the athleticism of the other cornerbacks, but he will bring stability to a secondary in the midst of a transition. If the Bengals can find a way to develop Dre Kirkpatrick, they could have the best pair of cornerbacks in the league.

25)  San Diego Chargers – Jason Verrett, CB, TCU
I had San Diego going with Bradley Roby here, and I still believe that he is a more talented player than Verrett. But various concerns scared them away from Roby, and they decided to go with the cornerback who is more stable both on and off the field. Verrett is smaller than the other cornerbacks in the first round, and he may be best suited to play in the slot long term. But San Diego is so bare in their defensive backfield that there is a very good chance that he starts from day one on the outside of the field.

26)  Philadelphia Eagles – Marcus Smith, OLB, Louisville
Philadelphia has a number of options at the outside linebacker position, but none of them are very good. Trent Cole is over the hill, Connor Barwin was a bust as a free agent signing, and Brandon Graham isn’t a great fit for their system. I saw Smith projected mostly as a second round pick prior to the draft and didn’t watch any tape of him until tonight, but from what I’ve seen I wouldn’t consider this selection a reach. He has tremendous explosion off the ball, and if he can develop better technique with his hands he could become a disruptive pass rusher. Philadelphia’s depth at the position will allow them to rotate him in and out of their defense as he develops his abilities.

27)  Arizona Cardinals – Deone Bucannon, S, Washington State
Bucannon is a cover first safety who can play in a deep zone or matched up man to man with a slot receiver, and he fits well with Arizona’s defensive personnel. Last year’s third round pick Tyrann Mathieu is a playmaker who flies across the field, but he was consistently exposed when he was put into coverage against a quick receiver or a large tight end. Bucannon can fill this hole in their defense, but he has enough flaws that I think this was too high for him to be taken. He rarely becomes involved in the running game, and when he does he usually either misses the tackle or is wiped out by a blocker. Safety isn’t a desperate need for the Cardinals, and they should have just taken the best player available.

28)  Carolina Panthers – Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State
Carolina is facing major holes at cornerback and offensive tackle, but they decided to address their equally pressing need at wide receiver. With Jericho Cotchery and Jason Avant as their top two receivers they will need Benjamin to contribute immediately, which isn’t the ideal circumstance for him. He has a lot he needs to work on, specifically route running and avoiding drops. He will give them a weapon down the field who can win contested balls, but if they wanted someone to be their number one receiver immediately they should have taken Marqise Lee.

29)  New England Patriots – Dominique Easley, DL, Florida
Easley is one of the most talented players in the draft, and he should be a disruptive force for the Patriots. He can play anywhere on the defensive line, though he will likely spend most of his time as a penetrating under tackle. Some people thought he was among the top ten players in the draft in terms of raw talent, and while I think that is a bit of an overstatement I would consider him worthy of a higher pick than this. But everything I just said comes with a major caveat: if he can stay healthy. Easley tore both his ACLs in college, and there is no guarantee that he won’t suffer similar injuries during his NFL career. This could either be a major steal or a major bust. I don’t see much middle ground.

30)  San Francisco 49ers – Jimmie Ward, S, Northern Illinois
At first glance it doesn’t appear that San Francisco needs a safety. Eric Reid is coming off a stellar rookie season, and they signed Antoine Bethea to a four year free agent contract. But they have already said that they plan to use Ward as a nickel cornerback during his rookie season, likely to cover the slot as he did during much of his time in college. This isn’t a pressing need, but San Francisco doesn’t have many pressing needs. This is a team that is well stocked with talent, and they can probably afford a luxury pick.

31)  Denver Broncos – Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State
I am a big fan of Roby, despite his struggles over the past year. He is capable of more flash plays than any other cornerback in the draft. He makes remarkably sharp breaks on the ball and will add a playmaking element to the Broncos defense. Down the line they might be able to coach him into a consistent cornerback, but for this year they will have to accept the occasional big play over his head. They certainly have an offense that can endure and respond to such big plays.

32)  Minnesota Vikings – Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
I’m going to pound my chest here for a few sentences. I was certain that Bridgewater wouldn’t make it out of the first round. I all but guaranteed that some team would trade up to grab him before the run of quarterbacks began the second round. The presence of a fifth year option in the contracts of first round selections only makes it more tantalizing to hop a few picks to grab a quarterback.

The one thing I didn’t expect: that this trade would be made by the Vikings. I was floored when I saw that they were on the clock, and I still believed that they were going to draft Derek Carr up until I heard the second syllable of Bridgewater’s first name. At that point I leapt into the air in celebration, spilling my computer off my lap onto the floor, and shrieked in a higher register than I ever realized my voice could reach. When I discussed the selection of Khalil Mack above, I called Mack “one of the four best players in the draft.” In my mind those four players are Mack, Clowney, Watkins, and Bridgewater. I think that Bridgewater should start from day one for the Vikings, and I believe that with him under center they will field a team that can compete for a playoff spot this year.

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