Mock Draft Version Two: Cruel Reality

As promised, here is my second mock draft. Yesterday I covered what would happen if I was put in charge of the draft for every team, but unfortunately I do not (yet) have any authority whatsoever for any of these teams. So today I’m posting what I think will actually happen. I can’t guarantee that any of these picks will be right, but I also can’t guarantee that any of these picks will be wrong.

1) Houston Texans – Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina

With each passing day it looks more likely that Houston will take Clowney if they choose not to trade the top pick. Even though they need a quarterback, I can’t fault them for selecting the best player available in the draft. It will be interesting to see how they integrate Clowney into their defense, as he really isn’t suited to play outside linebacker in a 3-4. If they can find a way to integrate his skillset with JJ Watt’s, they will have the best defensive front in the NFL for years to come.

2) St Louis Rams – Greg Robinson, OL, Auburn

In 2009 the Rams used the second overall pick to select Jason Smith, an offensive tackle who lacked polish but dripped athletic potential. Five years later Smith has already washed out of the league, and the Rams seem ready to repeat this mistake with Robinson. I’ve heard rumors of late that they could be interested in Khalil Mack or Sammy Watkins, but I expect them to go with the player they have been linked to all along. They don’t seem to care that Robinson is utterly incapable of pass blocking and that there is almost no chance of him contributing in the next two seasons as anything other than a guard.

3) Jacksonville Jaguars – Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo

I am fairly confident about the first two picks, but this is where the draft could go several different ways. The least likely possibility I see is a quarterback, but there is a chance that the Jaguars could decide to build their future around Blake Bortles. They have also suggested that Justin Blackmon may not be able to play next season, indicating that they would consider taking Watkins. But I think Mack is the most likely selection. He perfectly fits the OLB/DE hybrid in Jacksonville’s scheme, and coach Gus Bradley will want to start by building up his defense.

4) Cleveland Browns – Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson

The Browns have been repeatedly linked to Johnny Manziel, and either he or Bortles is a possibility here. They could also go with an offensive lineman, but I think they will decide to just grab the best player remaining on the board. Josh Gordon was phenomenal last season, but he has off the field concerns that could lead to trouble down the road. Cleveland was actually willing to trade him for a second round pick early last season, and if they draft Watkins they will have more freedom to consider parting ways with him if he continues to be a problem.

5) Oakland Raiders – Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State

This is the first pick where I am truly going out on a limb. Opinions on Carr vary widely across the league, but everything I’ve read suggests that the Raiders (along with several other teams) believe he is the best quarterback in the draft. Oakland will probably try to trade down into the teens to get him for a better value, but if they can’t I wouldn’t be surprised if they decided to reach for him at number five. He won’t fall to them in the second round, and he may not even slide far enough for them to trade back up into the first round to get him. If he is the quarterback they want, they will take him with this pick.

6) Atlanta Falcons – Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M

Atlanta needs a pass rusher or a pass protector. The top two pass rushers are off the board, so they will go with an offensive lineman. Matthews is the most complete lineman in this draft, and he has experience at both tackle positions. Sam Baker will be returning from injury this season, and Atlanta may still consider him their best option at left tackle. If that is the case, they would be wise to choose the more versatile Matthews over Taylor Lewan, who is a better pass blocker but never played right tackle in his college career.

7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M

I don’t buy the reports that Tampa Bay is interested in Johnny Manziel. They just gave Josh McCown starting quarterback money, and they still have some reason to have interest in Mike Glennon. They won’t be taking a quarterback with this pick. Lewan is still on the board and they could address one of their holes on the offensive line, but I agree with most of the projections that have them taking Evans. During his last year in Chicago Lovie Smith brought in Alshon Jeffery to complement Brandon Marshall. Adding Evans to Vincent Jackson would give Tampa Bay a similar combination of large, physical wide receivers.

8) Minnesota Vikings – Blake Bortles, QB, UCF

Following the drops of Manziel and Bridgewater, it looks like Bortles is going on a mini-slide of his own. He probably won’t get past Minnesota, but it is looking increasingly likely that he will fall this far. I still think the Vikings would be better off selecting either Bridgewater or Manziel, and I am still very concerned with Bortles’s inconsistent mechanics and accuracy. But he is probably best suited of all the quarterbacks to play in Norv Turner’s down the field passing attack. There is a slim possibility that the Vikings could choose to wait to get a quarterback in the second round and select either Anthony Barr or Aaron Donald to bolster their defensive front. But I think that Bortles’s upside is too much for them to pass up.

9) Buffalo Bills – Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan

Buffalo invested a first round pick in EJ Manuel last year, and now they need to give him some better pieces to work with. One option would be an elite receiving tight end in Eric Ebron, but they will choose to invest in their offensive line instead. Manuel had a lot of trouble staying healthy last season, and there is no player in the draft better than Lewan at keeping a quarterback clean. With him on the left side and Cordy Glenn moved back to the right they will have an elite pair of tackles to protect their young quarterback.

10) Detroit Lions – Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State

If the top nine picks work out as I’ve projected (which they won’t) Detroit will desperately want to trade out of this pick. They are in ideal position to grab a cornerback, but they don’t believe they are facing a major need at that position. In this they are mistaken, but if given the opportunity they will try to slide back to get into position to select a wide receiver. If they are forced to stay at number ten they may reach for someone like Odell Beckham, but I expect that they will decide to take a player of higher value and go after Gilbert, who most consider the top cornerback in the draft.

11) Tennessee Titans – Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA

Tennessee is transitioning to a 3-4 scheme and is in desperate need of an edge pass rusher. This makes them a perfect fit for Anthony Barr. It will take some time for Barr to develop, but they will need a few more years to fill out their defense no matter who they choose. The front line combination of Barr and Jurrell Casey will give them a legitimate interior-exterior pass rushing combination. Add a few more pieces at linebacker and safety and this could turn into an extremely dangerous defense two or three years down the road.

12) New York Giants – Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina

Eli Manning has always been at his best when he has a large target to throw to. Whether that target was Plaxico Burress or Hakeem Nicks, the Giants offense has always flowed most smoothly when Eli has a safety valve in the form of a large, physical receiver. They lost Nicks to free agency this offseason, and if Ebron falls past Buffalo they will jump at the opportunity to add him to their offense. The holes in their defense are difficult to overlook, but as long as they are committed to Manning at quarterback they will need to surround him with weapons.

13) St Louis Rams – Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville

In my first version of the draft I gave the Rams a lineman and a safety with the first two picks. They are getting the same positions in this version, just different players. I don’t think there is as big a drop off between Clinton-Dix and Pryor as there is between Matthews and Robinson, and I wouldn’t necessarily call Pryor’s selection a mistake. He is less disciplined than Clinton-Dix but is capable of making more game altering plays. The Rams could certainly use a playmaker in their secondary, but I think with the talent they have at defensive line they would be better off filling up their defense with solid, reliable players.

14) Chicago Bears – Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh

Donald is a better version of Henry Melton, who the Bears lost to free agency this year after an injury robbed him of most of last season. Both players make up for their lack of size with phenomenal athleticism, but Donald is far Melton’s superior in technique. He should go higher than this, but the Giants are the only team between here and number six with a need on the interior of their defensive line. The Bears get fortunate and land one of the best players in the draft in the middle of the first round, allowing them to overlook the disasters they have at their safety positions.

15) Pittsburgh Steelers – Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech

The Steelers have promised to get a large wide receiver for Roethlisberger, but with both Evans and Ebron off the board they will save that for a later round. With their first pick they will choose to address their biggest need on defense. Ike Taylor is on his last legs, and their young cornerbacks haven’t developed as they’ve hoped. It appears that after years investing third and fourth round picks into the position they will have to take one in the first. Darqueze Dennard is a possibility, but I expect that they’ll go for the later riser Fuller. He isn’t as natural in coverage as Dennard, but he has every bit as much athleticism and upside as Gilbert.

16) Dallas Cowboys – Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M

I don’t buy the rumors surrounding Manziel to the Buccaneers, but I absolutely believe that the Cowboys will take him if they get a chance. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Tampa Bay’s posturing convinces Dallas to trade up to number seven to grab him. It isn’t necessarily a mistake to invest in a young quarterback. Tony Romo is 34 and has a massive cap hit in 2015. But they have needs on defense at pretty much every single position, and they would be much better off taking someone like Clinton-Dix or Mosley.

17) Baltimore Ravens – Zack Martin, OL, Notre Dame

The Ravens weren’t exactly devastated by the departure of Michael Oher in free agency, but they will have to find someone to replace him in the draft. Their offensive line was a major disappointment last year, though it managed to escape criticism thanks to the more notable struggles of their running backs. They already have Eugene Monroe and Marshall Yanda locked in at left tackle and right guard, but Martin could conceivably be a replacement at any of the other positions. His ideal position is right tackle, and even if he spends his rookie year playing guard he will likely move out to tackle by year two.

18) New York Jets – Odell Beckham, WR, LSU

As in my first mock draft, the Jets get a wide receiver with their first round pick. This time it is Beckham, the perceived third best receiver available. I don’t think much of Beckham. He is a good football player, but he doesn’t excel in any area of the game. With this year’s deep receiver class the Jets could find nearly as good a player in either the second or the third round and use this pick to fill one of their other holes. I’m not completely confident they won’t go this way. They have a remarkable trend of drafting defensive players since hiring Rex Ryan, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they took a linebacker or a cornerback with this pick.

19) Miami Dolphins – CJ Mosley, LB, Alabama

Mosley could work his way up into the top ten, but durability concerns will knock him down closer to where I think he belongs. He will be a dominant player against the run and a solid contributor as a pass defender, even though his limited athleticism restricts his versatility. The Dolphins need such a player to man the middle of their defense behind their talented line. They vastly overpaid for Dannell Ellerbe last offseason, and the position remains a major need. With Martin, Lewan, Matthews, and Robinson all off the board they will have to wait until the next round to address their offensive line.

20) Arizona Cardinals – Dee Ford, OLB, Auburn

Here is another pick where my two mock drafts overlap. The Cardinals have managed a successful pass rush the past two seasons thanks to inside pressure from Daryl Washington and Calais Campbell, but to have a truly dominant defense they will need to find some way to collapse the pocket from the edge. They are hoping that Barr will slip to them, but if not they will reach for a lesser prospect. Another possibility would be for them to take a quarterback to sit behind Carson Palmer for the next year or two. I have seen a number of scenarios linking them to Carr, but in this case he is already off the board.

21) Green Bay Packers – Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama

Clinton-Dix falls farther than he probably should, right into Green Bay’s lap. He could easily go to the Vikings, the Rams, the Bears, the Cowboys, the Ravens, the Jets, or even the Cardinals, but they all pass on him to address other positions of need. The Packers end up getting a player of great value who fits a major need in their secondary. Of the two top safeties they would probably prefer Pryor—he fits nicely into the spot vacated by the departure of Charles Woodson before last season—but Clinton-Dix will provide them with the reliable safety over the top that they’ve lacked since injuries forced Nick Collins into retirement.

22) Philadelphia Eagles – Marqise Lee, WR, USC

Lee had a disappointing 2013 season, but I doubt there is anyone in the NFL with more respect for the player he was in 2011 and 2012 than Chip Kelly. In Lee’s two games against Oregon while Kelly was the head coach he put up over 300 yards and three touchdowns. Philadelphia needs a wide receiver after the departure of Desean Jackson, and even though Kelly has professed a liking for larger receivers he will happily jump at the possibility to grab his old Pac-12 foe. A similar line of thinking could lead them to Brandin Cooks, but Lee’s ability to run shorter routes makes him more suited for Kelly’s offense.

23) Kansas City Chiefs – Xavier Su’a-Filo, OG, UCLA

The loss of Branden Albert will force Kansas City to shuffle around their offensive line this season. They are left with unproven first overall pick Eric Fisher at left tackle, third year player Jeff Allen at right guard, and at left guard Rishaw Johnson, whose only career start came in Week 17 last year. They will try to add depth and versatility to this line. Su’a-Filo’s long term future in the NFL is at guard, but during his time at UCLA he showed the ability to slide out and play tackle if necessary.

24) Cincinnati Bengals – Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State

Dennard is a top fifteen player who will slide outside the top twenty because of his lack of athletic ability. The Bengals will scoop him up if given a chance. If he doesn’t fall this far, I still expect the Bengals to use the pick on a defensive player. They have surrounded Dalton with as much talent as they can, and now they have to worry about patching the developing holes on the defense. They seem to believe that they can find defensive linemen outside the first round, but they could use this pick on either a linebacker or a safety if a player they like is available.

25) San Diego Chargers – Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State

San Diego’s pass defense was atrocious last season, and with this pick they will simply take whoever they believe is the best cornerback available. Fuller could slide right into their laps, but I think they will have to settle for either Roby or Jason Verrett. I have them pegged with Roby, who still manages to land in the first round despite issues both on and off the field. He is a gambler who can be exposed by big plays, and he won’t help seal the holes in the Chargers secondary right away, though he has as much long term upside as any cornerback in this draft.

26) Cleveland Browns – Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, Eastern Illinois

The Browns pass up on a quarterback at number four and get the first pick of the second tier at number twenty-six. I honestly have no idea who they prefer from among Bridgewater, Mettenberger, McCarron, Garoppolo, and Savage, but if I had to bet I would go with the big armed quarterback out of Eastern Illinois. Garoppolo will need a lot of work to transition from Division IAA to the NFL, and the Browns selecting him would indicate that they don’t believe they are ready to compete yet. I’m not certain whether I agree or disagree with this assessment, but I definitely think it would be smarter for them both in the short and long term to grab Bridgewater.

27) New Orleans Saints – Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State

The Saints are putting everything they have on Drew Brees’s final seasons, so they might as well give him as much to work with as possible. They will trust Rob Ryan’s scheme to cover the holes on their defense while they maximize the talent of their offense. The Saints are in need of a playmaker after losing Darren Sproles, and Cooks can occupy a similar role as a player who can create yards in tight spaces. He will also bring a deep ball threat back to an offense that has been struggling to find someone to replace Robert Meachem for the past two seasons.

28) Carolina Panthers – Morgan Moses, OT, Virginia

Cam Newston still doesn’t have anyone to throw the ball to, but he can at least count on not being sacked from behind on every play. Moses is the best offensive tackle that Carolina could hope to get at this position, and he may not even fall this far if a team like Miami or New Orleans decides to upgrade at the position. He will never be a truly dominant player in the NFL, but under the right circumstances he can develop into an average starting left tackle. With the depth at the receiver position in this draft, Carolina can afford to wait until the second or third round to add a weapon.

29) New England Patriots – Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville

Okay, I don’t actually think Bridgewater is going to be picked by the Patriots. It’s a possibility, but I mostly put him here because I didn’t know what else to do with him. I think Bridgewater is the best quarterback in the draft. I think his accuracy sets him apart from all other passers. I think that at least one team will recognize this and choose to take him, possibly a team trading up from early in the second round. I would be stunned if Bridgewater falls out of the first round.

I put him with the Patriots because they are the team I think is most likely to trade back. They have no desperate needs that require a first round talent, but they have plenty of smaller holes that can be filled by multiple later round picks. If they don’t trade back, I do see some small chance that they could take Bridgewater. They found a lot of success with a player who fell to the sixth round because he “didn’t look like a quarterback” and I can’t imagine Bridgewater’s skinny frame will scare them away. And no, I don’t think the Brady-Bridgewater comparison is ridiculous. They both excel at getting the ball precisely where it needs to be precisely when it needs to be there. I’m not saying that Bridgewater will be Tom Brady, but he deserves to go in the first round.

30) San Francisco 49ers – Ra’Shede Hageman, DE/DT, Minnesota

It is very possible that the 49ers could select a cornerback with this pick. After losing the mediocre Carlos Rogers this offseason, they are left with next to nothing at the position. But San Francisco has built their team from the lines out, and I expect that they will continue to do so. Justin Smith doesn’t have much left in the tank, and they need to find someone to replace the most important player on their defense. Hageman is a tremendous bargain at number thirty, and I have faith that Jim Harbaugh can get him to maximize his talents.

31) Denver Broncos – Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State

Shazier is one of my favorite prospects in the draft, but I hate that so many projections have him linked to the Broncos. He is still very raw as a player—he needs to get better at playing in traffic and breaking off blocks—and the Broncos need someone who can contribute immediately to their defense. They would be better off selecting a lesser prospect like Chris Borland or Jason Verrett who can start from day one, rather than a player who won’t reach his full potential until after their championship window has closed.

32) Seattle Seahawks – Joel Bitionio, OL, Nevada

Many have projected that Seattle will go defensive line with this pick, but I think they feel confident they can find quality defensive linemen in later rounds. Instead I expect them to address their biggest weakness on the other side of the ball, their offensive line. In my first mock draft I had Seattle selecting offensive guard David Yankey with this pick. I’m a bigger fan of Yankey than most people, and I expect Seattle will go instead with the more versatile Bitionio. The lineman out of Nevada can play pretty much any position on the line, and I expect they will give him a shot at right tackle and only slide him in to play guard if that doesn’t work out.