We’re
in the home stretch before the NFL draft, which means it’s time for me to
finally put out my annual mock drafts. As always, I’ll have a mock draft today
and another tomorrow. This one is what would happen if I was responsible for
making every pick, which means it will of course look nothing like what will
happen on Thursday.
If
you’re curious about any of these prospects, I wrote them up in a bunch more
detail in the links below.
1)
Arizona Cardinals – Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama
This
choice came down to two players, and ultimately I decided to go with the
interior disruptor over the edge attacker. Williams is a very good athlete with
absolutely freakish skills, and it should be no trouble for him to immediately
become an impact player in the NFL. The way he uses his hands is absolutely
unique, and at times he is simply unblockable. Arizona’s defense has slowly
withered away after being dominant a couple years ago, and Williams is a piece
they can plop front and center of their defense and build around over the next
few years.
2) San
Francisco 49ers – Nick Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State
The
nice thing about having two clear top players is that it makes the second pick
really easy. The 49ers have invested a lot in their defensive line over the
past few years, with very mixed results (DeForest Buckner is excellent, Arik
Armstead is okay, and Solomon Thomas sucks), and they are still in desperate
need of someone to get after the quarterback from the edge. Bosa can do that,
and can hold up as a force in the running game, providing an immediate impact
for a defense that already has a bit of intriguing young talent.
3) New
York Jets – Ed Oliver, DT, Houston
This
feels like a joke to give the Jets another highly drafted defensive tackle, but
right now this team isn’t in a position to pass on any talented players. And
Oliver is certainly talented. He’s a one of a kind athlete who can blow past
offensive linemen off the snap of the ball and destroy plays deep in the
backfield. He’s not the most natural fit beside Leonard Williams, but the two
of them are talented enough to make up for it, a pair of lit sticks of dynamite
to throw into the backfield on every play.
4) Oakland
Raiders – Greedy Williams, CB, LSU
I
was tempted to go with another defensive lineman here. It probably is the best
talent on the board. But this draft is deep at edge rusher, and you can’t say
the same about cornerback. Williams is a clear class above every other
cornerback in this class, a great athlete with an aggressive mindset and
excellent ball skills. Gareon Conley came on down the stretch a year ago, and
with Williams on the other side this is the makings of a lockdown secondary in
Oakland/Las Vegas.
5) Tampa
Bay Buccaneers – Brian Burns, EDGE, Florida State
I
honestly can’t remember the last time Tampa Bay actually had a dangerous pass
rush. They’ve tried throwing everything at it, from high draft picks like
Adrian Clayborn and Noah Spence to veterans like Jason Pierre-Paul. Burns is
far from a sure thing, and this could run into trouble if he never manages to
diversify his game beyond a pure speed rush. But his speed is something
special, and he has enough skills in the other parts of his game to make me
think that he could finally be the answer the Buccaneers are looking for.
6) New
York Giants – Will Grier, QB, West Virginia
The
Giants have another pick later in this round, and it is tempting to wait and
see who will fall to them there. But Grier is a class above the other quarterbacks
available this year, and the Giants desperately need a quarterback. Eli Manning
has been bad for several years now, and whatever strange loyalty they’re
showing to him is sinking their franchise. They are going to be starting from
scratch sooner or later, so it might as well be sooner, with a talented and
exciting quarterback.
7) Jacksonville
Jaguars – Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State
There
are reports out there that some teams have taken Sweat off their boards for
medical reasons. I don’t know what truth there is to that, so I’m just going to
ignore it. What I do know is that Sweat is a freakish athlete with a good
combination of size and power, and that the Jaguars have lost a lot of the
depth up front that made them so dangerous a couple years ago.
8) Detroit
Lions – Jerry Tillery, DT, Notre Dame
I’m
honestly not sure what the Lions don’t need at this point. There are no defensive
backs or pass rushers worth taking here, but I could see them going with a
linebacker, wide receiver, or offensive lineman. Instead though I’m giving them
Tillery, an athletic defensive tackle who excels as a pass rusher and can be
pushed around in the running game. He’s not perfect, but he can be a game
changer if used properly.
9) Buffalo
Bills – Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State
The
Bills desperately need to give Josh Allen some help. They need wide receivers
as well, but ultimately I think Dillard is a higher value prospect than any
receiver on the board. There are concerns about him as a run blocker, because
he was really never asked to run block in college, but he has the most
experience as a pass blocker of anyone available this year. He can slide in at
left tackle right away and stay protecting the blind side in Buffalo for years
to come, for whoever ends up being their long term quarterback.
10) Denver
Broncos – Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
I
honestly have no idea if the Broncos expect Joe Flacco to actually be a
reasonable starter at quarterback. But in this exercise I’m the one making the
decisions, and my decision is to keep Flacco on the bench. Haskins can be a
little passive at times, but with more experience he might be willing to open
it up. He certainly has the tools to be a top notch quarterback, and Denver
could be a good place for him to grow into this without the pressure to be a
star right away.
11) Cincinnati
Bengals – Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
The
Andy Dalton era is coming to an end in Cincinnati, and there’s no point pushing
it off for another lame duck year. So instead I have the Bengals grabbing the
most anti-Dalton player imaginable. Murray is a dynamic athlete with a cannon
for an arm and playmaking instincts that will make him one of the most exciting
players in the league from the moment he steps onto the field. It will take him
a couple of years to figure out how to actually play quarterback in the NFL,
but it will take the Bengals a couple of years to shake off the remnants of the
Marvin Lewis epoch. And until then, Murray will at least be a lot of fun.
12) Green
Bay Packers – Dalton Risner, OT/OG, Kansas State
It’s
clear with Green Bay’s moves this offseason that their primary goal is now
making sure Aaron Rodgers is happy, and nothing will make him happier than
shoring up the people standing right in front of him. The Packers still have a
pair of quality tackles, but the days of Josh Sitton and TJ Lang guarding the
interior are far behind us. Risner can slide in immediately at guard, and long
term he gives them the option to bump him out of tackle when they decide to
move on from Bryan Bulaga.
13) Miami
Dolphins – DK Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss
The
Dolphins are committed to starting from scratch, so they might as well go out
and get a player who is also starting from scratch. Metcalf is an incredible
athlete who still needs to develop skills such as running routes and reliably
catching the ball, but he has the potential to round into a true game breaking threat
on the outside. It will be a couple years before he’s there, but that’s okay,
because it will be a couple years before the Dolphins need anything from him
anyway.
14)
Atlanta Falcons – Cody Ford, OT/OG, Oklahoma
Atlanta
misses out on the players they desperately need to improve their defensive
line, so they address the front on the other side of the ball instead. Matt
Ryan has played his entire career behind a shaky front, and Ford is the sort of
player who can help stabilize things as Ryan enters the final stretch of his
career. Ford has good mobility and exceptional size, and they can be flexible
with where they play him on an offensive line with only a couple of set pieces.
15) Washington
Redskins – Devin White, LB, LSU
White
slides farther than I think he should, but the Redskins happily snatch up a
playmaker for the middle of their defense. White is aggressive and fast, and
with the defensive line they’ve put together in Washington, they’ll have no
trouble keeping him clean to chase the ball all over the field. Assuming Reuben
Foster does return, the Redskins will have the makings of a very good and very
young defensive front.
16) Carolina
Panthers – Clelin Ferrell, EDGE, Clemson
The
Panthers went through most of last season with the 38 year old Julius Peppers
as their best edge pass rusher. With Peppers now retired, their defense is betting
on Bruce Irvin making the switch to a full time defensive end role. That isn’t
a recipe for success, and in the draft they need to find some other way to add
depth to their pass rush. Ferrell doesn’t have the physical tools of some of
the other top edge rushers in the draft, but he’s a solid player with a decent
chance of making an immediate impact.
17) New
York Giants – Devin Bush, LB, Michigan
The
Giants addressed their gaping hole at quarterback, and now it’s time for them
to do something about the defense that has been steadily stripped for parts
after carrying them to the playoffs three years ago. New York has been
notoriously unwilling to invest in linebackers over the past decade, a trend
that changed when they traded for the bloated contract of Alex Okafor before
last season. Unlike Okafor, Bush is actually a good player, with the
athleticism to chase ball carriers all over the field and the skill to develop
into a quality pass defender.
18) Minnesota
Vikings – Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama
The
Vikings miss out on the real prizes of the offensive line class, but the need is
desperate enough that I can’t pass on the upside of Williams. He has some stuff
to iron out with his game, but the tools are all there to be a successful
blindside protector. Some people think he can play guard, and while I don’t
necessarily agree, it at least gives the Vikings the flexibility to either move
Riley Reiff inside or keep him at tackle. They still have a lot of work they
need to do to fix their line, but this is a decent first step.
19) Tennessee
Titans – Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa State
Corey
Davis hasn’t become the immediate star the Titans hoped he would be when they
took him fifth overall two years ago, and even if he was that player they would
still need someone else for Marcus Mariota to throw the ball to. Butler is a
big receiver with good speed, and as an added bonus he is an aggressive
blocker, a useful player for an offense that is still unfortunately designed
around pounding the ball with Derrick Henry.
20) Pittsburgh
Steelers – Taylor Rapp, S, Washington
The
Steelers desperately need some playmakers on defense, and Rapp can be that sort
of game changing force, if he is used properly. He didn’t test well, but he
plays fast on the field, both coming up against the run and covering space in a
deep zone. Pittsburgh has endured a wasteland of journeyman veterans and late
round draft picks at safety ever since the retirement of Troy Polamalu, and
it’s time for them to invest some real resources into that position again.
21)
Seattle Seahawks – Byron Murphy, CB, Washington
The
Seahawks stick with a local prospect as they try to rebuild their secondary.
Shaquill Griffin suffered a sophomore slump a year ago, and even if he bounces
back the Seahawks have a need on the back end. For the first time in nearly a
decade they don’t have Earl Thomas to erase the weak points on their defense,
which is why they finally need to invest in some real talent to play on the
outside. Murphy isn’t physically impressive, but he has experience playing in a
lot of different schemes and has the skills to slide into a starting role right
away.
22) Baltimore
Ravens – Garrett Bradbury, C, NC State
A
young quarterback’s best friend is a center he can trust to run the pass
protections, allowing him to focus on what’s going on behind the defensive
front. Bradbury would be an excellent partner for Lamar Jackson, and a boost to
a team that wants to keep up their run-first identity. Bradbury is excellent in
the running game, a smooth athlete who can flow side to side and work downfield
to the linebackers, and he’d be perfect manning the middle of the Ravens
offensive line.
23) Houston
Texans – Jeffery Simmons, DT, Mississippi State
Houston’s
biggest need is on the offensive line, and it was hard not to go that route
here. But the only lineman left worth taking in the first round is Jawaan
Taylor, and he’s a project who is likely to get DeShaun Watson killed if they
turn to him too soon. So instead Houston settles for the most talented player
available. Simmons would be a top ten pick if not for the torn ACL that will
cost him most of his rookie season, but fortunately Houston doesn’t need
immediate impact as much on their defensive line as they do on the offensive
side. They can stash him for a year then come back in 2020 with an even more
devastating defensive line.
24) Oakland
Raiders – Rashan Gary, EDGE, Michigan
The
Raiders passed up an elite edge prospect earlier in the first round, but they
have their chance to snag a high upside player here. Gary is a tremendous athlete,
but he’s still figuring out how to play the position, and in a lot of ways
still figuring out what position he’s supposed to be. It will be an experiment,
but if it works out Oakland has a chance of getting a dynamic pass rusher to go
along with their shutdown cornerback.
25) Philadelphia
Eagles – Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, CB/S, Florida
Gardner-Johnson
is a fascinating player who could settle in at a number of positions in the
secondary, and frankly the Eagles need help at all of them. He is probably best
used, at least initially, as a slot cornerback, matching up man to man with
smaller receivers on the inside while also staying close to the ball to make
plays in the running game. He’s a lethal blitzer and an aggressive playmaker,
the sort of weapon any defensive coordinator will gladly scheme around.
26) Indianapolis
Colts – AJ Brown, WR, Ole Miss
Man,
the Colts have to get Andrew Luck some help at some point, don’t they? Chucking
the ball down the field a couple times a game to TY Hilton is certainly nice,
but right now the best they’ve been able to come up with in terms of investing
in a second receiver is Devin Funchess. Brown will change that, giving them a
weapon that can attack multiple levels of the field. He can eat defenses
underneath while Hilton torches them over the top, taking this offense to a
level it wasn’t quite able to reach a year ago.
27) Oakland
Raiders – George Fant, TE, Iowa
The
Raiders went defense with their first two picks in this draft, and while it
wouldn’t be ridiculous to go that way again, the better value is on the
offensive side. Fant is a big, fast tight end with the upside to be a true
superstar, if he can figure out how to properly use his speed and size. He’s
not the best pairing as a deep threat with the overly cautious Derek Carr, but
I honestly don’t expect Carr to last much longer in Oakland, and whoever they
replace him with will love having a weapon like Fant streaking down the field.
28) Los
Angeles Chargers – Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida
I’m
not super comfortable with this selection. Taylor could be a major risk trying
to protect Philip Rivers, and this is a pick for a couple years down the road
by a team with a quarterback who is rapidly closing their window. But he’s the
most talented player available at this point in the draft, and the Chargers
have been desperate to find bodies for their offensive line for years. It’s
hard to say what the future holds for this team after Rivers is done, but they
are set up with some young players that give them hope for long term success,
and if Taylor pans out he could be a foundational piece for the next phase of
their offense.
29) Kansas
City Chiefs – Trayvon Mullen, CB, Clemson
Kansas
City’s secondary has slowly eroded over the past couple seasons, and right now
it’s a glaring hole on a team that is otherwise set up to compete for a
championship. The biggest hole is at cornerback, and while Mullen isn’t
necessarily ready for the spotlight right away, he’s better than anything
they’re putting out there now. This is a defense that freed Marcus Peters to
take risks and make plays, and if they do the same for Mullen they can cover up
some of his other lapses as he gets more comfortable playing cornerback in an
NFL system.
30) Green
Bay Packers – TJ Hockenson, TE, Iowa
As
I mentioned above this draft is all about coddling Rodgers, and the only thing
a quarterback likes as much as pass protection is a tight end to dump the ball
off to. Hockenson is almost as good an athlete as his teammate Fant, though he
plays with a completely different style. He is at his most dangerous with the
ball in his hands after he makes the catch, which will mesh well with Rodgers’s
improvisational style.
31) Los
Angeles Rams – Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky
Allen
isn’t the elite pass rusher some think him to be. He has a great first step,
and not much else besides that. But he would be a good fit for a Rams defense
that has a lot of holes on their front seven, since he can fill a number of
different spots depending on the play. He may not have the variety to succeed
rushing the passer on every play, but he is still lethal as a blitzer coming
off the edge or up the middle. He also has the athleticism to run with running
backs and tight ends, something that was sorely lacking in the Rams defense a
year ago.
32) New
England Patriots – Irv Smith, TE, Alabama
Smith
isn’t a Gronkowski replacement. Gronkowski is the greatest tight end in NFL
history, and no one is going to replace that. But Smith is perfect for this
Patriots offense, a versatile option who can do almost anything Bill Belichick
and Josh McDaniels can scheme up. He can line up in the backfield and lead
block. He can spread out into the slot and play as a receiver. He’s the perfect
Patriots player in every way, and as an avowed Patriots hater it kind of annoys
me that he was available for them to select.
No comments:
Post a Comment