2019 Edge Prospects

The more I’ve watched this draft class, the more interested I have become. There are a lot of quality players to be found around the second half of the first round, but so far it’s been a little light on true star talent. That changes this position group, which provides a handful of high ceiling players who will feel right at home with the weight of a franchise on their shoulders.

Nick Bosa, Ohio State

It always amazes me how, even among the best of the best prospects, some players just look different on the field. Bosa is this year’s premier example of that. It’s astounding how no matter what the opposition seems to throw at him, he never once seems to find himself blocked. The way he moves and the way he uses his hands keeps him effortlessly free. No lineman can latch onto him, and no one has the agility to stay in front of him. If you have to block him for more than a second, you’ve already lost, because there is no way you can even get your hands on him to do more than briefly slow him down.

The crazy thing about Bosa is that even if he wasn’t the best in this class with his hands, he would still be an elite pass rushing prospect. He has good burst up the field and sensational bend around the corner, able to dip beneath a tackle’s hands and accelerate through to the quarterback. If he wants to mix it up by going inside, he has some of the best lateral burst I’ve ever seen to jump inside a tackle’s pass set and blow past him to the quarterback. These same tools translate to the running game, where he can guard the gap on either side of him and essentially erase any running lanes on his side of the field.

If I desperately wanted to find something to criticize about him, I’d say that he needs to get stronger at the next level. He doesn’t really have any power move as a pass rusher, and he can occasionally be moved backwards in the running game. But that’s the tiniest of criticisms, and one of the easiest things to develop in the NFL. I have no doubt that he will be a dominant pass rusher for years to come, and alongside Quinnen Williams he is on a tier above every other player in this draft class.

Brian Burns, Florida State

Burns is a one dimensional player, but as far as dimensions go his is probably the best one to have. He is a pure speed rusher around the edge, with skills built around his ability to sprint around the corner. His first two steps are sensational, long and fast to get him deep into the backfield before the opposing tackle can even complete his pass set. From there he has elite ability to dip and bend around the corner at full speed, often meeting the quarterback the moment he hits the top of his drop. His hands are good enough to keep him clean as he sprints around the outside, and his long arms have a knack for finding the football and stripping the quarterback from behind.

Power is not something that is present in Burns’s game. He never even tries to play through the opposing tackle, and if a pass blocker engages with him, the play is pretty much over. This is even more of a concern in the running game, where he is a below average defender. Periodically he can shoot through the inside gap and explode into the backfield for a major loss, but more often than not he will have to try to control the edge. He does a good job keeping his outside shoulder free, but he doesn’t have the strength to squeeze a blocker down and close the inside gap as well. More often than not he is the one who ends up moving, driven wide to leave a gaping lane for the running back to sprint through.

Burns’s speed rush is enough to make him an elite pass rusher on its own, but if you’re investing a top ten or top five selection on him, you’re doing it in the hope he can develop a more complete game in the NFL. He doesn’t even need other elite tools, just as long as he has something to work with. He shows flashes of explosive lateral burst that can turn into an inside move, and he just needs to learn to trust it. And if he can bulk up to merely acceptable in strength, he can be a star that a defense will commit themselves to building around.

Montez Sweat, Mississippi State

I’m reasonably skeptical about how much a player’s ability to run forty yards in a straight line tells you about their effectiveness to rush the passer, but we have to at least acknowledge what Sweat did at the Combine. Running 4.41 at 260 pounds might be the single most impressive number I’ve ever seen come out of that event, and it wasn’t like this was the only test Sweat dominated in. He also scored in the top quartile in both the jumps and both the agility tests. There is no denying that he is a truly unique athlete, even among NFL pass rushers.

It’s a little strange that with all the speed that Sweat has, his game is mostly built around power. His first step isn’t anything special, and by the time he ramps up to full speed the opposing tackle has usually dropped into a stable base the top of his pass set. Sweat doesn’t have great bend, but he’s powerful enough to cut the corner down by going through the outside shoulder of the tackle. When he doesn’t try to get the edge, he attacks with his hands into the opposing tackle’s chest. He usually wins this battle, but he hasn’t yet developed the tools to do anything after he wins the handfighting.

I don’t know what to make of this contradiction with Sweat. On the one hand, he has explosive speed that suggests he has the ability to develop his skills to an even greater extent than they were in college. On the other hand, his game is built off a physical advantage that might not carry over to the NFL. He has as high a ceiling as anyone, but I’m not sold on every part of his game. I wouldn’t let him fall outside the top ten, but in a year with a large selection of elite pass rushers, I could see him sliding down the board some.

Clelin Ferrell, Clemson

Of all the first round edge prospects, Ferrell clearly has the lowest ceiling. He tested as just an average athlete, and for the most part he looks like it on the field. He doesn’t have great burst with his initial step, and he struggles to bend around the corner. When he does dip to try to get past a lineman, his balance becomes very precarious, and a well placed strike by the tackle can send him to the ground. He has good straight line closing speed, but if the quarterback can make him change direction he struggles to finish. He’s never going to be more than a ten sack a year guy at his peak, and that lack of upside is enough to knock him down into the second half of the first round.

Ferrell’s saving grace is that he requires a lot less development than the other edges in the third tier, though that doesn’t mean he’s a complete prospect by any means. He has good instincts for attacking with his hands, and he does an excellent job keeping himself clean as both a pass rusher and a run defender. He doesn’t do much with this freedom, and his first goal in the NFL should be learning how to turn an advantage like this into an actual rushing lane.

Ferrell will be a solid starting edge defender for years to come. He is a fluid lateral mover off the line of scrimmage, and he can play as a stand-up linebacker if that’s what his team needs from him. If he can add some strength, his ability to win with his hands could translate into an effective bull rush, though right now that isn’t part of his game. Long term he may not have the same highs to reach as the other players on this list, but with him you at least know what you’re getting.

Josh Allen, Kentucky

When Allen wins, it is always because of his first step. He can explode up the field to win the edge against a tackle, or he can dart inside to shoot through a gap. His burst makes him almost unblockable on well designed blitzes and stunts, as he’s in the backfield before the offensive line can even figure out where he’s coming from. His bend is inconsistent, but he’s fast enough that it often doesn’t matter, as he’s able to take the long route around the tackle and still meet the quarterback at the top of his drop.

Other than this first step, Allen really doesn’t have much going for him as a pass rusher. He doesn’t play with power, and when he’s contacted by the opposing tackle the play is pretty much over for him. He only occasionally uses his hands to try to keep himself clean, and when he does go to them it is usually too little and too late. There are no counter moves, and no plan other than just trying to outrace the opposing blocker. In college he didn’t need more than that, but he likely will in the NFL.

Allen is a smooth athlete in space, and he has a lot of experience dropping into coverage. He could make a transition to more of an off-ball linebacker role in the NFL, where his ability to catch linemen napping and explode past them would be even more effective as a sporadic blitzer. There are ways to work with him, and his explosiveness is enough to make him a late first round pick, even if I’m skeptical that he has the tools to ever become a consistently dominant edge rusher.

Rashan Gary, Michigan

Gary is an absurd athlete, and if that athleticism ever shows up on the field he can be a dangerous pass rusher. He is big, and he is fast, and he’s the sort of player who looks much better in shorts than he does in pads. Despite his impressive athletic numbers, he doesn’t have great burst up the field, and he is stiff trying to bend around the corner. He doesn’t threaten offenses racing around the edge, and I don’t think that will ever be a major part of his game.

If you feel like building a pass rusher from the ground up, Gary is an intriguing prospect in the draft. He does show some understanding for how to use his hands to keep himself clean, and on the occasion that he attacks a blocker he can stagger him backwards and earn the sort of the freedom that Bosa gets on every play. He has a good hump move and a promising bull rush, and he should rely on these moves more often in the NFL.

Gary likely won’t be ready to consistently contribute until year three or four, and he comes with a lot of risk of never being more than just an athlete. Right now he seems to have no plan whatsoever when he rushes the passer. Sometimes he tries to run upfield and wrap around the corner, but his lack of bend means he gets far too wide and makes life easy for the opposing tackle. Other times he charges straight into the blocker’s chest, giving himself no route to the quarterback. He needs to learn how to find the middle ground. At his best he will have the ability to attack the outside shoulder of the tackle, to use his power to cut down the angle and his speed to accelerate through contact to finish at the quarterback.

I feel like I also have to address the possibility that Gary might be playing out of position as an edge. At the Combine he weighed 277 pounds, and if he adds a bit more bulk he could slide down to play more snaps on the interior. He holds his ground well enough in the run game, and as an interior rusher his lack of speed up the field will be less important. The team that drafts him will have an interesting choice to make with his development path, whether to continue to work him on the edge or dedicate to changing his role. The athleticism here is so tantalizing that I can’t justify him falling out of the first round, but his lack of ability right now screams that he has an extraordinarily high bust potential.

Jachai Polite, Florida

Every year I put together the list of prospects I plan to study in the week after the Super Bowl. I collect the players by looking at mock drafts from that time, trying to get as many of the first round prospects as possible. But it is inevitable that in the two and a half months between the Super Bowl and the draft, some players move up and some players fall out of the first round conversation. Polite is in the latter category. After a productive college career he was considered among the elite edge prospects in this class, but an abysmal Combine performance—both in testing numbers and, reportedly, in interviews with teams—has seen him drop out of that conversation altogether, to the point that many expect him not to be drafted on either of the first two days.

I can’t speak to a lot of this, but simply based on his film I don’t see him as a first round prospect. He is a slightly weird prospect to evaluate, with pieces of an excellent edge rusher to go along with glaring holes in his game. He has good, but inconsistent, first step burst up the field, getting deep enough in the backfield to get an angle on the tackle. From there he has flexibility to avoid the tackle’s punch and bend around the outside. And then he just kind of stops bending. He flies parallel to the line of scrimmage rather than coming back towards it, leaving the quarterback a wide lane to step up in the pocket. He doesn’t close well, and he doesn’t make good tackles in space. He’s far more effective swatting at the football than he is trying to bring the quarterback down.

Part of this seems to stem from a consistent issue playing through contact. He can’t stand up to any sort of physicality as either a run defender or a pass rusher. He can be driven backwards at the line of scrimmage, and he is pushed too wide as an edge rusher. He seems aware of this as well, which can lead him to be too passive. At times he will stand back and try to watch the play unfold rather than risk engaging with a blocker. Many of his pressures come simply through effort as the quarterback holds the ball—again, a strange thing to say about a player who looked completely unprepared for the biggest job interview of his life. In general I see a player with some good traits, and the potential to put them all together if he can patch the glaring holes in his game. But that seems like a long enough shot to knock him down into the second round, even before I factor in whatever off the field concerns this process has raised around him.

Jaylon Ferguson, Louisiana Tech

Ferguson is the career leader in sacks in college football history, and a player with that track record is always going to get love in some circles analyzing the draft. But I’m not someone who puts a lot of stock in college stats, especially for edge rushers, and I think Ferguson would be best suited to fall into the late second or early third round. He isn’t a phenomenal athlete, and he isn’t going to have the burst to win around the edge against NFL tackles like he did in college. He is going to have to rely on his other skills to find a way to get to the quarterback.

I don’t mean to suggest that Ferguson doesn’t have other skills, because he certainly does. Though he doesn’t do a great job getting up the field, his ability to dip below a lineman’s arms and bend around the corner means he doesn’t need to win by that much. He struggles some to disengage from contact and actually make the play in the backfield, and his inability to use his hands to swat himself free is going to be even more costly in the NFL. But he can apply some pressure, if he can get just enough burst to create a small angle on the tackle’s shoulder.

I think the best path forward for Ferguson would be to try to develop as a power rusher. He has excellent upper body strength, and when he leads with his hands he can stagger a tackle back into the quarterback’s lap. He needs to get better at playing defensively with his hands as well as attacking, but when he does win the battle he has the strength to throw massive linemen out of his way. It will likely take him a couple years to add the strength to be a reliable NFL player in this role, and even then he will always be somewhat limited. But he’s a useful player and could develop into a decent starter down the road.