The Kyler Murray Era

 

Kyler Murray is a Minnesota Viking, and I have a lot of thoughts.

Let’s start with Murray himself. I’m going to get a bit negative as this goes along, so let me be clear from the beginning that I do believe the Vikings just got the best quarterback available on the market this offseason. Murray is a phenomenal athlete with a strong arm who has been a bit erratic but typically is somewhere between the 10^th and 20^th best quarterback in the league. This is the sort of profile that has been earning quarterbacks contracts worth $30+ million a year, and the Vikings got him for the veteran minimum, making him instantly one of the five best bargains at the position in the league.

Murray does a lot of things well, but he also has clear limitations. His short stature means that he has trouble seeing the middle of the field, and the rash of injuries he’s suffered over his career have made him skittish in the pocket. He’ll bail early at any sign of pressure, and he has a tendency to fade away on throws, leading to inaccuracy issues on deeper targets. Despite his arm strength, he’s consistently performed as a bottom 5 quarterback on targets in the intermediate range of the field.

There is a way to build an offense around a quarterback like this, and Murray does enough other things well that he can make it work. An ideal offense for him would look a lot like the one he ran with Kliff Kingsbury the first four years of his career. Spread the field out, let him operate in shotgun making quick pre-snap reads and getting the ball out in a hurry. He is smart and accurate when making these underneath throws, and he’s creative enough with his athleticism to make plays if these initial reads aren’t there.

If a team wanted to build an offense this way, they could do a lot worse than Murray. The questions I have are less about him on his own, and more about how he’ll pair with Kevin O’Connell.

Since the Vikings hired O’Connell, their offenses have had a few key trademarks. They operate under center more than almost any other team in the league, leaning on an attack that blends condensed formations and play action to engineer separation down the field. They are heavy on seven-step drops and long developing routes, with the aim of generating explosive plays down the sidelines and over the middle of the field.

You know, all the stuff I said Murray doesn’t do well.

If you were designing an offense to be the worst possible fit for Murray, it would look an awful lot like O’Connell’s. And if you were designing a quarterback to be the worst possible fit in O’Connell’s offense, it would look a lot like Murray.

Something has to give, and the general assumption seems to be that O’Connell will adapt his offense to fit Murray’s skills. I have some skepticism—O’Connell has shown an unwillingness to adapt in the past, such as this past year when he continued to call deep shots with an offensive line that was missing multiple starters for most of the season—but even if the Vikings do overhaul their offensive scheme this offseason, there will be other downsides.

Changing the scheme to play to the strengths of the quarterback makes a lot of sense, except if by doing so you’re minimizing the strengths of your other players. In Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison the Vikings have two of the best receivers in the league at creating separation on deep routes, but also two players who can sometimes struggle with press coverage. In the past defenses had to be wary about how they took advantage of this. Pressing these receivers can disrupt the timing of routes, but that’s not as big a deal on longer-developing concepts where they have time to get open anyway. And if they are able to win at the line, the result can be a massive play that makes this strategy too costly to risk.

That calculus changes in a Murray-style offense. Timing is much more critical on the slants and hitches he excels at, and he doesn’t have the consistency as a down the field thrower to punish defenders for failing at the line. Jefferson is a good enough player that he’ll be able to make things work, but he probably won’t be able to hit the same heights he could in a scheme more designed to suit his talents.

There are similar issues with the running game. The Vikings love to run a scheme that utilizes multiple tight ends and under center rushes, and players they’ve acquired like Jordan Mason and Josh Oliver will have less value in a scheme that spreads the field and operates out of shotgun. Murray’s value with his legs can make up for this, but you also have to be worried about how much they can actually utilize that, given his injury history.

I think ultimately the Vikings will settle into some middle-ground offensively, where they are better than the mess they were last year but not as dynamic as the talent on the field suggests they should be. I also think we’ll see a few games with JJ McCarthy at quarterback next year, either due to injury or because the issues on offense are severe enough that O’Connell decides to abort the Murray experiment. I don’t buy that there is a genuine preseason competition between the two, but I think Murray’s leash could be pretty short.

All that said, if the defense sustains its level of play it should be enough to bump the Vikings up to 10 or 11 wins and get them into the mix for playoff contention. And this is where I want to step back and address where my true pessimism about the Murray signing comes from, which is what it means about the Vikings’ big picture goals as a franchise.

Before O’Connell was hired, the Vikings went through a decade-long period that was best defined by a dogged fixation on the present with little consideration for the future. Their goal was to put the best team they could on the field every single year, a plan that pretty consistently produced between 7 and 11 wins.

This was most evident in their approach to the quarterback situation. After the Teddy Bridgewater pick failed, they addressed the position with a series of veteran bandaids that did just enough to keep them afloat. When Bridgewater went down they traded a first round pick for Sam Bradford. When Bradford got hurt, they rolled into Case Keenum. When they wanted to move on from Keenum, they signed Kirk Cousins. And when they couldn’t find anything better out on the street, they kept kicking the Cousins can forward for six years that resulted in two playoff appearances and one playoff win.

This approach was driven by head coach Mike Zimmer and GM Rick Spielman, but it also filtered down from ownership. The Wilfs are not interested in rebuilding. They want a competitive team every single year, even if “competitive” ends up being a fairly loose term.

When O’Connell was hired alongside former GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, they managed to convince the ownership to try a different approach. Not a complete teardown, but a “competitive rebuild”, which would focus on adding veteran talent while targeting a cheap rookie quarterback that they hoped they could slide into the machine. This has been done successfully in the past, most notably by the Kansas City Chiefs, who let Alex Smith walk for an unproven and raw first round pick named Patrick Mahomes.

And it might have worked in Minnesota too. They just got the wrong quarterback. This is the downside of this approach. Because quarterback scouting remains maybe the hardest thing in football, and there are very few young quarterbacks that carry no possibility of failure. (The only recent ones that come to mind are Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence, and they both went first overall.)

Failure is an essential risk of the process. What really defines a team in the long-term isn’t whether they fail, but how they react to the failure. In 2013 the Bills spent a first round pick on EJ Manuel. That didn’t work out, so in 2018 they drafted Josh Allen. In 2021 the Patriots drafted Mac Jones. Three years later they took Drake Maye. The Bears failed twice, with Mitch Trubisky in 2017 and then Justin Fields in 2021. So in 2025 they took Caleb Williams, and now they appear set to be competitive for the next decade.

Drafting a quarterback should ultimately be a volume strategy. Because it only has to work once to make it all worth it. Yes, there is a risk you end up in a Jets-like cycle where you get failure after failure after failure. But most teams eventually do get it right.

This is what bothers me the most about the Murray signing. Because on the surface it appears to be the Vikings taking the wrong lesson from the failure of McCarthy. Rather than setting themselves up in the best position to try again, they are scrambling to find their way back to mediocrity.

I can’t see inside Kevin O’Connell’s head. It’s possible he is genuinely enthused about having Murray as a quarterback. But based on everything I said above, and based on every other quarterback he’s brought into the Vikings, I would be surprised. This feels more like something he feels forced into, because if he doesn’t find a way to get back into playoff contention he won’t be the head coach of the Vikings in 2027. This once again feels like something trickling down from ownership. They saw the 2025 season as an unacceptable outcome, and they will do everything in their power to prevent it from happening again.

Murray is only on a one-year contract, and the future after that remains very murky. How well does he have to play for them to sign him to an extension? How well does he have to play before they find themselves in a bidding war for his services? If he moves on after 2026, where do they go from there? Do they try to find a different guy to keep them afloat year by year? Maybe Mac Jones in 2027, Daniel Jones in 2028? Drop Bryce Young or Jaxson Dart in there somewhere along the way?

Right now the message that ownership is sending is that any risk of failure is not acceptable. But nearly every top quarterback in the league had some risk. Patrick Mahomes came out of a gimmicky offense playing a reckless style that almost always ended in disaster in the NFL. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson completed less than 60% of their passes in college. Drake Maye and Caleb Williams were phenomenally gifted talents who needed to struggle through a tough rookie season before they finally figured out how to put it together.

The Vikings have no interest in anything like that. All they want is another Kirk Cousins, to keep them from ever feeling like there’s anything actually at risk.

2025 Mock Draft - Predicting the Future

 

Here is the second of my two mock drafts, this one attempting to predict what is actually going to happen. I think I have a handle on the first few picks, but after that things feel even more wide open than normal.

 

1) Tennessee Titans – Cam Ward, QB, Miami

It’s become increasingly clear over the past couple weeks that a decent chunk of the NFL—including, most importantly, the Titans—feels that Ward is a quarterback prospect worthy of the first overall pick. I don’t particularly agree, but I can see the upside in his best plays on the field, and he’ll certainly bring some excitement to a franchise that always seems to lack it.

 

2) Cleveland Browns – Travis Hunter, CB/WR, Colorado

I think this pick feels pretty set in stone as well. The Browns have been pretty open about their love for Hunter, and I don’t think this is some smoke signal to suggest they’re trying to trade the pick. It sounds like they see him having more potential at wide receiver, but will also mix him in on defense. I don’t agree, but I definitely think he can be a valuable player following that route as well.

 

3) New York Giants – Abdul Carter, EDGE, Penn State

This is the first place where the draft feels interesting. This pick is between two players, whether they try to plug their hole at quarterback with someone of slightly lesser talent than most top 5 quarterbacks, or take the supremely gifted pass rusher Carter at a position of lesser need. I think, in the end, they won’t be sold enough on Sanders to pass up on someone with Carter’s gifts, and will kick the can down the road at the quarterback position for another year.

 

4) New England Patriots – Will Campbell, OG/OT, LSU

The Patriots are praying that two quarterbacks go above them so they can get one of Hunter or Carter. If that doesn’t happen, they’ll grab an offensive lineman. Campbell isn’t my favorite of the line prospects, but most of the reporting has him as New England’s preference.

 

5) Jacksonville Jaguars – Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

The closer we get to the draft, the more confident I am that someone is going to take a gamble with Jeanty. He’s one of the few elite talents in a year that is weak at the top of the class, and even as the value of the position has declined, NFL teams have shown a willingness to throw that aside for special talents. I’m not convinced it will actually be the Jaguars, but someone will take Jeanty in the top seven, even if it costs a couple of picks to trade up to do so.

 

6) Las Vegas Raiders – Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona

McMillan is a somewhat polarizing prospect, but I think there’s a decent chance some team in the top ten falls in love with his size and his surprising movement skills. In this case the Raiders are looking for any sort of young talent to plug into their offense, and I think it’s slightly more likely they go this route than grab a lineman.

 

7) New York Jets – Armand Membou, OT, Missouri

The Jets took an offensive tackle in the first round last year, and I could see them trying to get some variety by going after someone like Tyler Warren. But Membou is a rare athlete, and you can never have too many talented young linemen, especially when you’re trying to build back the foundation of a team from scratch.

 

8) Carolina Panthers – Jalon Walker, LB/EDGE, Georgia

This seems like one of the most common linkages of player and team heading into the draft. I don’t understand it, but I do believe it. Walker doesn’t have a clear position at the next level, but I guess that works, because Carolina needs help at pretty much every position.

 

9) New Orleans Saints – Mason Graham, DT, Michigan

Ever since it was announced that Derek Carr may miss the season, people have been speculating this could be a place to see a quarterback go. If Shedeur Sanders doesn’t go to the Giants, this is the next logical landing spot for him (Raiders or Jets could grab him, but they just made multi-year commitments to veterans in the offseason). Except I don’t think it’s really that logical. The Saints need a quarterback, but they also need pretty much everything else. The smart thing to do would be not to jump at a mediocre prospect, but to wait with the expectation they’ll be picking higher next year. Of course, it’s the Saints, so smart decisions aren’t really their thing (see the Carr trade, the Carr extension, etc.)

 

10) Chicago Bears – Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State

Warren is an odd prospect, and while I don’t think much of him, I think someone is going to talk themselves into getting the ultimate gadget player. Ben Johnson comes over from Detroit, where he saw the value that a young, versatile tight end can provide for an offense. I don’t think Warren is anywhere near as good a receiver as Sam LaPorta, but he’d certainly have opportunities to prove me wrong in a Bears offense without a lot of playmaking options.

 

11) San Francisco 49ers – Walter Nolen, DT, Ole Miss

Nolen has a wild range of possibilities. He’s a player with tremendous gifts but also some clear red flags, and I could see him either sneaking into the top ten or sliding out of the first round entirely. San Francisco lost a couple of pieces from their interior defensive line to free agency, and this seems like the sort of gamble they’d be willing to make.

 

12) Dallas Cowboys – Matthew Golden, WR, Texas

Golden is the sort of wide receiver who always goes higher than he should. 4.3 speed is hard to ignore, and he does enough other things well in the passing game that I think he can grow into a more complete receiver. Having him stretching the field should hopefully open up things for CeeDee Lamb as well, giving the Cowboys offense a chance to bounce back with the coaching change.

 

13) Miami Dolphins – Kelvin Banks, OT, Texas

Miami has some pieces to like on their offensive line, but it still hasn’t translated to a reliable unit. Banks won’t solve all of those issues, but he’ll at least give them something solid at one of their tackle spots. They could also address the defensive line as well, but with the way the draft has worked out, there’s more value on the offensive line at this point than on the defense.

 

14) Indianapolis Colts – Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan

The Colts have a lot of interesting weapons in the passing game, but they still have a glaring hole at tight end. Loveland would give them another target to help out whoever is playing quarterback, while also potentially bringing the versatility to open a few more things up in the running game.

 

15) Atlanta Falcons – Mykel Williams, EDGE, Georgia

Atlanta has been trying to find some semblance of a pass rush for nearly twenty years. Williams won’t solve all their issues overnight, but he’s a rock-solid player with impressive physical tools that will give them a foundation to build around. Outside of quarterback I’m not sure there’s a position that wouldn’t make sense for Atlanta to address—they have a lot of solid players, but no real depth at any position group.

 

16) Arizona Cardinals – Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas

Arizona’s in a similar place where they just need bodies on defense. Barron has impressed enough in the draft process that I think he’s leapt Will Johnson to be the second cornerback off the board. He’s a fantastic athlete with experience in a range of positional alignments. Still a little rough around the edges, but Arizona is a good place for him to develop and grow.

 

17) Cincinnati Bengals – Kenneth Grant, DT, Michigan

One other pattern I’ve noticed over the years is that giant defensive tackles always go higher than I think they should. Grant isn’t the physical specimen that players like Vita Vea and Jordan Davis were, but he shows some intriguing movement skills on the field to go along with his massive size. The Bengals defense was a catastrophe in every phase a year ago, and while I’m not sure Grant offers much in the way of immediate improvement, he would at least give them someone with potential to develop.

 

18) Seattle Seahawks – Grey Zabel, OG/OT, North Dakota State

The offensive linemen could go off the board in a hurry on Thursday, but I see more of a slow rollout, which works perfectly for a Seahawks team that is looking for immediate improvement. I think Zabel is the one they’ll identify as the best fit, thanks to his versatility and experience playing at the interior positions to give them an immediate boost in that area.

 

19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jihaad Campbell, LB, Alabama

This is another player and team combination that has been rumored quite a bit. Campbell is an explosive athlete in the middle of the field with some experience bouncing out to the edge as a pass rusher, and he is a good fit for a defensive play caller like Todd Bowles who loves to use every tool at his disposal to throw pressure at the opposing quarterback.

 

20) Denver Broncos – TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State

Jeanty is not going to be the only running back to go in the first round. I expect to see 2 or 3 taken by the end of the night, and while Henderson may be a bit of a surprise as the second off the board, he is a good fit for what the Broncos want to do with this offense. His abilities as a receiver out of the backfield and a rock solid pass protector will open up a lot of options for Sean Payton, as he had in New Orleans with Alvin Kamara.

 

21) Pittsburgh Steelers – Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado

I don’t think Sanders is going to be here at 21, but I think there’s a decent chance the Steelers end up with him. I think he’ll probably go in the 15-20 range, as someone trades up to grab him. The Steelers are in the best position to do so, though don’t rule out a team like Cleveland or New York jumping back in from the start of the second round. But since I don’t forecast trades, I think the Steelers would happily take him if he slides into their lap.

 

22) Los Angeles Chargers – Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon

As you fill out a mock draft things can sometimes surprise you. I have a general feeling that Harmon is going to go higher than this, but I couldn’t find a place that made a ton of sense for him to go. So the Chargers will happily snap him up, giving them a pass rushing menace on a defense that made major strides last year but relied on a lot of aging players to get quarterbacks on the ground.

 

23) Green Bay Packers – Will Johnson, CB, Michigan

Johnson slides a little on concerns about his physical toolset. The Packers are a team that typically prefers excellent athletes, but I think they’d make an exception for someone with Johnson’s size and ball skills at a position of desperate need.

 

24) Minnesota Vikings – Malaki Starks, S, Georgia

A couple years ago the Vikings passed on a safety with good tape but questions about his measurables, preferring to trade back and select Lewis Cine rather than taking Kyle Hamilton. That decision hasn’t aged well, and I think this year they’ll just grab the guy who looks good on tape, measurables be damned. Starks isn’t the fastest or the quickest safety, but he has good instincts and strong coverage skills that will make him a solid starter for years.

 

25) Houston Texans – Josh Conerly, OT, Oregon

This scenario works out pretty perfectly for Houston, with two of the top tier of offensive linemen falling into their laps. If they go off faster on draft night the Texans may need to trade up to make sure they get their guy, but if things unfold this way they will happily stay put and let Conerly fall to them. He’s still a bit raw, and there are enough other problems that the Texans line is still going to be a disaster this year. But a couple years from now, they might have something to work with.

 

26) Los Angeles Rams – Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State

The next tackle goes off the board a pick later. Simmons drops a little because of his injury, but his tape is good, and all indications are that he is making a solid recovery. The Rams have made it clear that they don’t rely too much on high draft picks making an immediate impact, so if they have to wait a year for Simmons to crack the starting lineup, they aren’t going to press any panic buttons.

 

27) Baltimore Ravens – Shavon Revel, CB, East Carolina

Back-to-back injured players off the board. The Ravens are another team that will happily grab a player who slid some because of injury and trust that they can bring him along slowly. Revel has the ability to erase opposing receivers in press coverage, and while his torn ACL could slow down his transition to the NFL, he has the potential to become a top-end starter in a couple of years.

 

28) Detroit Lions – Tyler Booker, OG, Alabama

The Lions have built their team on the strength of their offensive line, but they’re starting to show some cracks in the middle. Booker has his limitations a player, but for a team that would gladly pound the ball between the tackles for ten straight plays if it was working, his ability to blow defenders backwards off the line of scrimmage will definitely have its appeals.

 

29) Washington Commanders – Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina

Hampton makes sense as a first round running back from a purely physical perspective. He’s big, he’s fast, and he does enough good things as a rusher to make you believe he can do even more. It might be a slightly strange stylistic fit with the wide-open spread offense that Kliff Kingsbury likes to run, but I think running back is definitely on the table, and Hampton is the most talented one available here.

 

30) Buffalo Bills – Trey Amos, CB, Ole Miss

The Bills need help desperately on the back end, and Amos is a name that has been shooting up draft boards for the past couple weeks. He’s another cornerback with good size and good speed, and the Bills need to take another shot after whiffing on Kaiir Elam a couple years ago.

 

31) Kansas City Chiefs – Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina

Offensive line would make a lot of sense here as well, but with most of the big names off the board I think the Chiefs would choose to grab the best player available rather than reaching for a lineman. Emmanwori is a special athlete who shows flashes of what that athleticism can accomplish on the field. Plugged into Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, he could be a genuine difference-maker if fully unleashed to attack.

 

32) Philadelphia Eagles – Shemar Stewart, EDGE, Texas A&M

Stewart is one it’s really hard to pin down. I could see him being a top ten pick, or I could see him falling out of the first round entirely. The Eagles feel like a good team to take the gamble on him. They lost Josh Sweat, Brandon Graham, and Milton Williams this offseason, so they need some fresh blood on their defensive line. And if Stewart pans out, he could allow them to sustain the dominance along the front that won them the Super Bowl.

2025 Mock Draft - I'm in Control

Below is the first of two mock drafts I'll put out this year. In this version, I'm not trying to predict what will happen. I am making the picks as if I was in charge of every team.

1) Tennessee Titans – Travis Hunter, CB/WR, Colorado

It’s hard to know what to do with a player like Hunter, but ultimately I think the only answer is to just pick him and let it sort itself out. He’s a better cornerback than he is a wide receiver, but I think he’s good enough on offense to at least have a role there, likely as a third option getting 15-20 snaps a game. If it works, he’s a superstar who will change the shape of your franchise. If it doesn’t, in a couple years they can try to transition him to a more traditional role, where he still has the potential to develop into an All Pro cornerback.

 

2) Cleveland Browns – Abdul Carter, EDGE, Penn State

Another pass rusher isn’t the biggest need for Cleveland after they got past Myles Garrett’s trade request and signed him to an extension, but Carter is the clear best player available, and the Browns aren’t in position to be picky. He’s a versatile athlete with tremendous upside to develop into one of the best defensive players in the league.

 

3) New York Giants – Kelvin Banks, OT, Texas

There’s a clear top two of elite prospects, and after that you have to start reaching. Banks isn’t the sort of sensational athlete that normally goes top five, but  he’s a reliable and solid tackle who brings value in both the running and passing game. The Giants have been trying to fix their offensive line for years, and it hasn’t worked yet, but this will hopefully get them to that point.

 

4) New England Patriots – Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona

Drake Maye showed flashes of potential operating with basically no help from his supporting cast a season ago. So then the Patriots went out with the most cap space of any team in the league, and they spent almost all of it on defense. They still need someone to protect their young quarterback, and also someone for him to throw the ball to. They can’t get both here, but at least McMillan offers a good option as a big target with more quickness than you’d expect.

 

5) Jacksonville Jaguars – Armand Membou, OT, Missouri

Similarly, the Jaguars need to do something to help out Trevor Lawrence. Membou needs some polishing, but he has the athletic ability to develop into one of the best in the league. He’s big, and he’s athletic, and even if it takes a couple years for him to clean up his rough patches, he and Brian Thomas will give the Jaguars the foundation of a potentially elite supporting cast.

 

6) Las Vegas Raiders – James Pearce, EDGE, Tennessee

Defensive line isn’t the biggest need for the Raiders either, but it’s also never a bad thing to have multiple good pass rushers. Playing opposite Maxx Crosby would give Pearce a lot of opportunities to work one-on-one in space where he’s at his best. And even if he sometimes struggles to finish sacks, having other good rushers around him to clean things up will make the pressure he does generate even more valuable.

 

7) New York Jets – Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan

I’m still wary of taking tight ends this high, but Loveland is a special talent. He has good length and excellent ball skills, and he combines that with rare quickness and route-running ability that makes him a matchup nightmare. The Jets are still a couple years away from having a functional offense, but the combination of Loveland and Garrett Wilson will set them up well for when they do get an offensive line and quarterback in place.

 

8) Carolina Panthers – Walter Nolen, DT, Ole Miss

The Panthers already have a space-eating monster in the middle in Derrick Brown, exactly the sort of player that would be perfect to place alongside Nolen. He can get moved around some in the running game, but as a pass rusher his ceiling is almost unlimited. He’s explosive, he’s strong, he’s flexible, and he can bring some dynamism to a Panthers defense that is sorely lacking it.

 

9) New Orleans Saints – Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas

Things are pretty easy for the Saints. They have basically nothing, so they just have to take the best player available. That player is Barron, a very good athlete with the versatility to play all over the defensive backfield.

 

10) Chicago Bears – Mason Graham, DT, Michigan

It would make sense to take someone on the offensive side to support Caleb Williams, but I actually like what the Bears have done building out a receiving corps and offensive line through trades and free agency. And despite all the money they’ve spent on the defensive side, it still wasn’t very good a year ago. Graham would give them a disruptive interior presence to hopefully free up the big-money pair of Montez Sweat and Dayo Odeyingbo to work in space on the outside.

 

11) San Francisco 49ers – Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State

The 49ers took a receiver in the first round a year ago, but he didn’t impress much as a rookie, and they traded away Deebo Samuel in the offseason. And Egbuka is just too perfect a fit for this offense to pass up on. He’s a savvy route-runner and a very willing blocker, a piece that Kyle Shanahan can move anywhere and use in any number of ways to create opportunities in both the run and pass game.

 

12) Dallas Cowboys – Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

Jeanty is a rare talent, but it’s still hard for me to grab a running back at the top of the draft. I think the most value the position offers is someone who can come in and contribute right away for a team with a strong supporting cast. Despite all the evidence to the contrary, I still think the Cowboys are the sort of team that could really use someone like this, with the talent to leap back into contention if things break right.

 

13) Miami Dolphins – Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon

The Dolphins have built an impressive group of edge pass rushers, if only they could stay healthy. They still have some holes on the interior though, and Harmon could give them one of the best young fronts in the league. It might have made more sense for this roster to take someone on the offensive side of the ball, but I think Harmon is a step above the other talents available at this point.

 

14) Indianapolis Colts – Will Johnson, CB, Michigan

Late last year Drew Lock threw for 309 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Colts. That is inexcusable. And while the Colts did some work to address their secondary in free agency, they could still use young talent on the back end. Johnson isn’t the best athlete, but he has good size and tremendous ball skills that can create big plays for the defense.

 

15) Atlanta Falcons – Josh Conerly, OT, Oregon

Tackle has been a strong point for the Falcons for the past few years, but that’s not going to be the case for much longer. Jake Matthews is 33 years old, and Kaleb McGary is a free agent after this year. Michael Penix is the sort of quarterback who can dice a defense up from the pocket but struggles to make plays under pressure. Getting a young and talented tackle on the same timeline as him is almost essential for Atlanta’s future.

 

16) Arizona Cardinals – Mike Green, EDGE, Marshall

I wasn’t able to find enough tape to do a full breakdown on Green, but the couple games I watched make me think he would slot in somewhere around here. He’s a twitchy athlete who is still rounding out the rest of his game but shows early signs of some advanced pass rushing techniques. Arizona has some interesting pieces on the offensive side of the ball, but they still need help at basically every position on defense.

 

17) Cincinnati Bengals – Kenneth Grant, DT, Michigan

The Bengals desperately need youth and juice along their defensive front, and Grant has both of those things. This is too high for a space-eating defensive tackle who is still not that good at eating space. But he shows flashes of the quickness that suggest there’s more for him to unlock here, and there’s a chance he could grow into a true game-wrecking force in a few years.

 

18) Seattle Seahawks – Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State

Seattle’s offensive line was a mess in 2024, and then in the offseason they made a quarterback swap to get someone who is significantly worse at dealing with pressure. They need to find a way to protect Sam Darnold so he can attack down the field. I’m a little hesitant about Simmons here, both because he’s coming off of injury that might limit him as a rookie and because Seattle’s bigger need is on the interior rather than at tackle. But I think the value he provides is far enough above the options at guard to justify it.

 

19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Matthew Golden, WR, Texas

Tampa Bay has been able to count on very good receiver play for years, but both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are getting up there in years. Golden will add an instant burst as a deep threat, and he has the potential to develop into a more complete receiver to take over for the next era of Buccaneers football.

 

20) Denver Broncos – Luther Burden, WR, Missouri

Bo Nix was better than I expected as a rookie but still showed some clear limitations. He enjoyed chucking up deep balls to the big target of Courtland Sutton, but mostly he still focuses underneath, attacking in about the 5 yard range and counting on his receivers to create after the catch. Burden is the best after the catch threat in this year’s draft, and he’d add a new element to the Broncos offense.

 

21) Pittsburgh Steelers – Cam Ward, QB, Miami

This is a somewhat weird fit of player and team. The number one thing the Steelers ask their quarterback to do is to avoid turnovers, and the number one thing Ward loves to do is to launch the ball recklessly down the field. But I think they both need someone with the opposite impulses. The Steelers need someone who is going to push back and take chances to provide a spark on offense. And Ward needs coaches who will force him to play with more discipline.

 

22) Los Angeles Chargers – Grey Zabel, OG/OT, North Dakota State

The Chargers have a pair of very good tackles, but their offensive line is still a mess because they can’t trust the interior. I had Will Campbell ranked higher among guard prospects, but Zabel is a better fit for the downhill attacking style of the Chargers running game. He’s still a little raw in pass protection, but he bowls people over in the running game, and putting him alongside either Rashawn Slater or Joe Alt will give the Chargers one side of the line they can consistently trust to move people off the ball.

 

23) Green Bay Packers – Shavon Revel, CB, East Carolina

Revel is another player I wasn’t able to find much film of, partially because he missed most of his final college season with a torn ACL. But he’s a big and physical cornerback with a ton of upside, and the Packers have spent years chasing anyone at this position.

 

24) Minnesota Vikings – Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina

The Vikings made a lot of moves in free agency to beef up their offensive and defensive lines, but they still have some serious concerns at defensive back. Cornerback is a bigger need than safety, but the best value here is Emmanwori, a freak athlete who needs quite a bit of work but has the potential to develop into the perfect attacking weapon for Brian Flores’s defense.

 

25) Houston Texans – Will Campbell, OG/OT, LSU

Houston desperately needs to find any bit of competence on their offensive line, and Campbell is the best option available at this point. I don’t love this fit for him—I think he’d be better off going someplace that already has good tackles, where it will be easier to fast-track him on the transition to guard—but he’s certainly better than anything the Texans have on their line at this point.

 

26) Los Angeles Rams – Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado

Sanders is the best player left on the board, and I feel like he does deserve to go in the first round, especially in a week class. This part of the draft is hard to find a place for a quarterback though, since most of these teams are picking this late because they already have a good option at the position. But the Rams are in a unique place without a clear answer of what they’re going to do in the post-Stafford era. And unlike most teams in this position, I don’t think they’re close enough to Super Bowl contention that one more player here could push them over the top, so I’m less bothered taking someone who would likely spend a year or two offering very little value.

 

27) Baltimore Ravens – Shemar Stewart, EDGE, Texas A&M

The Ravens have gotten excellent pass rush production from Kyle Van Noy, with 21.5 sacks over the past two years. But he is 34 years old, and if he falls off they have basically nothing on the edge. A few years ago they used a pick in this same range on Odafe Oweh, a freakish athlete who never quite put it together as a pass rusher. But they shouldn’t scare them off from taking the same gamble with Stewart, an arguably even more gifted player with an even steeper development curve.

 

28) Detroit Lions – Mykel Williams, EDGE, Georgia

Last year the Lions defense fell apart due to injuries, but some of that is simply the nature of business with Marcus Davenport as part of the starting lineup. They need more youth and depth on their defensive front, and Williams can give that to them. He doesn’t have the upside to develop into a superstar rusher, but that’s fine, because the Lions already have one of those. He’s perfect as a secondary option, who can hold up against the run and occasionally take advantage of the one-on-one matchups he is going to frequently see.

 

29) Washington Commanders – Malaki Starks, S, Georgia

Washington made a couple of nice additions to the defensive side of the ball a year ago, but there is still more work they could stand to do there. Starks is a smart and reliable player who should be able to jump in as a starter from day one, even if his lack of elite physical tools could limit his usefulness.

 

30) Buffalo Bills – Maxwell Hairston, CB, Kentucky

I only checked out one game of Hairston as well, and there wasn’t a lot to see on the tape either good or bad. But the tools are enough to justify a relatively complete team like the Bills taking a gamble. He runs a 4.28 forty and had a 39.5 inch vertical leap, and if he can harness these gifts he can be a shot of youth to a defense that’s been hanging on by a thread for several years.

 

31) Kansas City Chiefs – Donovan Jackson, OG, Ohio State

Kansas City lost the Super Bowl because their offensive line wasn’t good enough, and then they traded away their best offensive lineman. They need to make a major investment here, and Jackson is a solid option who can plug in right away to the spot Joe Thuney vacated.

 

32) Philadelphia Eagles – JT Tuimoloau, EDGE, Ohio State

The Eagles won a Super Bowl on the strength and depth of their defensive front, but they lost three key pieces of that rotation to free agency and retirement, so it’s worth another dip. At this point I haven’t done enough tape study to have strong opinions on who the best option is, and I picked Tuimoloau mostly for stylistic reasons. He’s another physical player who excels against the run and may have a somewhat limited ceiling as a pass rusher, but who would be a great complement across the formation from the twitchy, explosive Nolan Smith.

2025 Quarterback Prospects

Cam Ward, Miami

Ward is my top ranked quarterback in this class, but that says more about the class than it does about him. He wouldn’t have cracked the top five in my ranking a year ago. If you asked me whether he’s going to make it long-term as an NFL starter, I’m pretty confident the answer is no. In fact, there are a couple players lower on this list who I expect will probably have better NFL careers than Ward. But none of them can touch the upside he has, the upside to become a potential top ten (if not top five) quarterback, enough that I would grudgingly take a shot with him at the end of the first round.

Ward has the physical tools of a very good quarterback. He has a strong arm that fires lasers all over the field, whether his base is beneath him or while making twisting throws on the run. He’s a good athlete as well and is someone the defense always has to worry about as a runner when plays break down. But he’s at his best creating behind the line of scrimmage. He keeps his eyes constantly down the field, and he has great instincts for how to find space to get everything out of plays. It doesn’t always look pretty—half the time he seems on the verge of falling down, and it never looks like he has any sort of plan, just mindless stumbling and running—but it works too often for there not to be some skill there.

Within structure things are far more mixed. He makes quick and sharp decisions, and this can lead to some very impressive plays, lasers fired with excellent anticipation to hit receivers in stride between closing defenders. But that only happens when he executes with good mechanics, which is a toss-up on any given play. He is lazy with his feet and doesn’t bother shifting them at the top of his drops, instead choosing to just adjust his arm angle to try to spread the ball over the field. He has the arm strength to get it out with good velocity doing this, but most of the time these balls come out nowhere near his targets. Even when he operates with good mechanics he isn’t a particularly accurate quarterback, and his refusal to do even this means that he can’t be counted on to complete even simple pass plays.

Turning Ward into an NFL quarterback will involve basically building him up from scratch, both from a mechanical and from a mental aspect. He is a wildly reckless player, and his go-to when plays don’t work out as scripted is to just fire the ball into coverage and hope for the best. Again this seems to work out with surprising frequency, but it also leads to some ugly interceptions. And his scrambling abilities are mitigated somewhat by his lack of ball security as he moves in the pocket. Ward will commit a lot of turnovers in the NFL. You just have to hope the plays he creates are enough to drown them out.

Ward’s best plays are difficult to ignore. And it’s easy to talk yourself into believing a coach can smooth over some of his weaker points. He played five years in college, but two of them were at the Division II level, where he probably wasn’t getting world-class coaching. I’m fine taking a shot on Ward, but I’m also more open than most to taking a flyer on a high-upside quarterback and living with the significant risk of him never figuring it out and never becoming even a mediocre NFL starter.

 

Shedeur Sanders, Colorado

Sanders is a relatively safe but unexciting pick. A player who can add good value for a couple years while on a rookie contract, but then will put you in an awkward position when he starts asking to get paid what veteran NFL starting quarterbacks get paid. He isn’t a long-term solution at the position, but he can hold down the fort with a good supporting cast for a few years. The sort of quarterback I’d be fine taking in the second round, maybe at the tail-end of the first to get an extra year of cost-controlled contract.

Sanders is fairly limited from a talent perspective. His arm strength is slightly below average—good enough to allow him to operate, but enough of an issue to take away some of the things you’d want to do in an offense. He can get the ball out with good zip on underneath throws, but it flags a little trying to hit intermediate windows, and he struggles to push the ball down the field as a deep passer. He has some mobility and is good at picking his spots to scramble, but he isn’t the sort of athlete that can force a defense to dedicate extra defenders to keeping him contained. He has good instincts and creativity when on the move, but again his physical limitations hold him back, as he needs time to get his base set up beneath him again before he can fire the ball on the run.

The biggest problem I have with Sanders isn’t his limitations. It’s that he seems unaware of them. He’s built like Teddy Bridgewater, but he plays like he’s Josh Allen. His offensive line at Colorado was bad, but he made them look worse, constantly drifting off his spot in the pocket in ways that opened up lanes for opposing rushers. And when things start to break down, he regularly goes into superhero mode, spinning backwards away from pressure and trying to extend plays as long as possible. More often than not he isn’t able to escape, and he frequently will turn what should be a seven yard sack or a throwaway into a fifteen yard loss.

Some of this can be blamed on the situation, playing on a team with a shaky supporting cast where the only hope for offense was for him to bail them out. In the NFL he needs a coach who will do a better job telling him to quit messing around and stand in the pocket, where he is at his best. Within structure he has a good understanding of what’s happening in front of him, and he does a very good job attacking the middle of the field, throwing with excellent precision, timing, and anticipation to hit receivers in the perfect windows to allow yards after the catch. He’s an accurate passer, and he is unafraid of pressure, willing to stand in the face of it and take a hit to deliver the ball where it needs to go. The makeup of a league-average NFL starter is there. He just needs to accept that’s all he’s ever going to be, and the team drafting him needs to accept that as well.

 

Jalen Milroe, Alabama

Milroe is another where you’re just drafting him hoping for the unlikely scenario where he puts it all together. The tools are certainly there, the most impressive athleticism and one of the best arms in the class, and when he’s rolling he looks like a genuine superstar. He’s a very streaky player, and his performance against Georgia was probably the best single game of any quarterback I watched this year. Unfortunately, his performance against Tennessee was probably the worst single game I watched. When he’s on, he’s a nightmare to defend. When he’s off, he looks like he belongs nowhere near an NFL field as a quarterback.

The best tool Milroe has to work with is his athleticism. He is a genuinely special runner of the football, with 4.4 speed that can erase angles and the quickness to make defenders look stupid in the open field. If he was willing to change positions, I genuinely think he would belong in the day 2 conversation as either a running back or a wide receiver. Whether as a scrambler or on designed runs, his ability to tuck and run will be a dynamic weapon for an offense.

As a passer there is just enough there to make me think that maybe he can develop, though probably not enough to justify putting him on the field for long enough for him to actually put it together. He shows the ability to drop back and go through his reads, not getting stuck on his first receiver or bailing from the pocket too quickly. But he frequently makes the wrong decisions on these reads, missing a defender dropping into a zone and firing the ball into trouble because of this. The process is good though, and with more experience and repetition, maybe he can start to pick up on those things. He’s reasonably young at 22 years old, and he has significantly fewer career pass attempts than all but one of the other quarterbacks I looked at. This means that maybe he has more room to grow, and that the quarterback he is now is still a long way from the finished product.

But even if he does progress mentally, there are enough other warts in his game that it is hard for me to buy that he’ll put it all together. He’s the least accurate of the quarterbacks I looked at, and while accuracy can be improved in the NFL—most of the league’s best quarterbacks right now were guys who I had accuracy concerns about in college—it’s hard to keep even a developmental quarterback on the field when he can’t make the right decisions or connect on the passes when he does. The path for Milroe to succeed will require living through two or three years of spectacular plays alternating with egregious misses and ugly turnovers. If he can make it through this, he has the potential to be a true game-altering force for an offense. But the odds of this are slim enough that even I wouldn’t want to take him until the third round.

 

Will Howard, Ohio State

Howard is a smooth and reliable operator within the structure of the offense. When the read is simple and the play is straightforward, the ball comes out with good timing and accuracy. He hits his receivers right as they come out of their breaks, in stride to allow yards after the catch. His misses within structure are rare, and he is able to alternate between lasers and touch as needed. His physical tools aren’t spectacular, but they are solidly above average, with a strong arm that can hit every part of the field and enough mobility to at least keep defenses honest watching him as a running threat.

The problems with Howard come when the play isn’t as clean as it is designed on paper. He’s pretty good moving behind the line of scrimmage, able to slide into open space to extend plays where he has decent creativity operating outside of structure. At times he can be too quick to drop his eyes and take off running, but he also makes a handful of nice plays down the field. If he’s able to move and escape the pocket, he’s good enough to frustrate the defense, if not terrify them.

When he can’t escape the pocket, things get ugly. The accuracy I mentioned disappears when he has pressure in his face, as he tends to fade away from throws robbing them of precision and velocity. He usually has a pretty good sense for where his checkdowns are, but a couple times a game he will just lock in on a single receiver, throwing the sort of passes that lead to extremely ugly interceptions. He doesn’t go deep into his progressions from the pocket, either throwing it to his first or second read and then going immediately to his checkdown.

Howard is a safe pick as a high-floor, low-ceiling quarterback prospect. He does enough little things well that I’d trust him to run my offense, but doesn’t have enough high-level ability for me to ever feel happy with him as my starter. He has a good arm, but he doesn’t throw a very good deep ball to force defenses to stretch the field. He’s an aggressive runner that is difficult to tackle, but he isn’t going to run away from anyone. He’s an older prospect who seems to have picked up the basics of executing an offense but hasn’t figured out any of the advanced stuff. He takes what the offense provides him, and doesn’t provide much more on top of that.

In short, he’s either one of the best backups in the league or one of the worst starters. If I was just gauging by average outcome, he’d be higher on this list, probably competing with Sanders for the top spot. But I just don’t place much value on even a good backup quarterback, and without the slim potential to develop into a starting quarterback that the three above him have, I can’t justify taking Howard until the fourth round.

 

Tyler Shough, Louisville

The recent changes in eligibility rules have meant that I’ve spent a lot of time over the past couple years talking about how old quarterbacks are. But even by the standards of past players like Kenny Pickett and Bo Nix, Shough is at another level. Shough is 25 years old, and just completed his seventh year playing college football across three different schools. He was the backup to Justin Herbert at Oregon, and he’s older than both Trevor Lawrence and Trey Lance.

The weird thing is, Shough doesn’t have the same profile as most of the other older quarterbacks I’ve studied. Most of them have been guys with somewhat uninspiring physical tools who hung around long enough to become sharp, efficient operators of college offenses, making quick decisions and distributing the ball to pick apart defenses piece by piece. Shough is surprisingly not that advanced. Part of that is experience. It wasn’t until his final year in college that he started a full season, after having multiple others cut short by injury. But it is concerning that he reached this age and still seems to struggle with progressing through his reads and operating with clean mechanics.

If Shough was younger though, the talent would definitely intrigue me. He probably has the best arm in this class. He throws a gorgeous deep ball, arcing with elegant touch to hit the perfect window down the sideline and giving his receivers opportunities to make plays on the ball even when they’re covered. He is also fantastic at throwing from awkward platforms, contorting his body and his arm angle to find throwing windows no matter what’s happening around him.

He isn’t much of a runner, but he’s a good athlete extending plays behind the line, and very good at finding and hitting open receivers down the field. His quick release and flexible arm also mean that he almost never takes sacks. He always knows where his checkdown is, and he always is able to get the ball out towards him, though at times he can be a bit reckless doing so, and it would probably be better if he learned to occasionally swallow the play.

There’s potential here with Shough, but also a lot to clean up. His arm strength sometimes works against him, as he can get sloppy with his mechanics trusting this to bail him out, leading to inaccuracy. He will get stuck on one receiver too often, and at times fire the ball into coverage. But when things are working, his best plays are up there with anyone in the class. If it weren’t for the age, he’s exactly the sort of quarterback I’d love to take a gamble on in the hopes that he can develop. But betting on a 25 year old player to take a leap forward is a pretty long-shot gamble, which is why I’d probably still wait until day 3 to  make that wager.

 

Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss

Dart is a frustrating quarterback to try to evaluate. He comes out of one of those college systems that ask basically nothing of their quarterback mentally, just running a handful of basic concepts and trusting him to make the right choice before the snap and get the ball out of his hands quickly. This sort of offense has very little to do with what’s going to be asked of him in the NFL, and makes it hard to know what he’s actually capable of. A year ago I probably underestimated Bo Nix coming out of a similar system, as he showed more ability once he was asked to do so. And it’s possible Dart could be hiding similar talent.

There certainly are things to like about Dart. The ball comes out with a lot of zip, and he isn’t afraid to fire it into tight windows in the intermediate range when the read is there. He’s a good athlete too, a threat to take off and run with quickness to make people miss in space to create extra yardage. He mostly uses this athleticism as a runner, though a couple times he did flash the ability to make impressive throws on the run. The hope would be that with more development he does a better job keeping his eyes downfield rather than instantly tucking and running. And there is room for development. He’s the youngest of the quarterbacks I’ve studied, and perhaps time in a real offensive system would allow him to grow in ways he hasn’t been able to yet.

There is talent here, but it isn’t overwhelming talent of the sort I’d be willing to take a gamble to unlock. His strong arm doesn’t translate well to deep throws, where he consistently leaves them short and off target. He’s another who thinks he’s a great athlete while being just a good one, and he has no idea how to manage a pocket, frequently running into more trouble trying to extend a play when his first read isn’t there.

There are the tools of a starting quarterback here, but the path to reach that point is very long, and even then I think the best case scenario is simply an average passer. He isn’t very accurate, his mechanics fall to pieces if his first read is covered, and while he does a good job taking care of the ball, he creates enough negative plays scrambling behind the line to make up for it. I’d plan to take him in the fifth round, with the goal of making him a backup with some chance of surprising you down the line.

 

Kyle McCord, Syracuse

McCord has good size and good arm strength, and operating from the pocket he can fire the ball all over the field, with tight lasers hitting narrow windows over the middle and bombs soaring down the sidelines. He’s a smooth operator when he gets the ball out of his hand in a hurry, hitting the top of his drop and firing with anticipation on throws over the middle of the field. When things are clean, he can execute an offense.

McCord is the least mobile of the quarterbacks I studied, and that greatly limits his ceiling. He operates almost exclusively from within the pocket. His feel for that space comes and goes, as he shows moments of understanding how to maneuver in space while keeping his base beneath him to extend a play for a couple extra seconds. But he also has plays where he stumbles into trouble, and while it’s never too bad—he doesn’t take any 15 yard sacks trying to scramble backwards—it still limits how much he can bring to the offense.

Even as a pure passer there are enough warts to make me think he’s a long way from being reliable on an NFL field. He has a good feel for zone coverage and can fire the ball into windows as they open up, but when he guesses wrong he doesn’t have the ability to abort and adjust the play, and will throw the ball into a defender’s waiting arms. Against man coverage he seems to get stuck on his first option, picking a receiver with a one-on-one matchup and throwing it to him whether he wins or not. Sometimes he displays nice touch to let them go up and make a play on the ball, but just as often he fires the ball wildly off target with no chance of anyone making a play.

McCord is another who will never be anything more than a backup, and I think it will take a couple of years in an NFL system before I would even count on him being that. In the long-run he can settle in as someone you can count on to keep things steady for a game or two, but who you would never want for stretches longer than that. I’d take him in the fifth or sixth round, and stash him as my emergency quarterback until I’m comfortable with him being one snap away from finding his way onto the field.