As I do most years I am ending my draft breakdowns with the quarterbacks. This year I regret that decision. This might not be the worst quarterback class I’ve seen, but it is probably the most boring. I only broke down five players, and only two of them would I have any real interest in as long-term investments. The rest are just kind of bland, not chaotic enough to be fun and not competent enough to justify putting onto an NFL field.
(The two who could have spiced this up are Taylan Green and Cole Payton, two players who
tested as freakish athletes but who I couldn’t find enough tape to do a full
breakdown for. But I watched enough to convince me I wasn’t really missing out
on anything.)
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
Mendoza is the top quarterback in the class, and the only one I’d give better than even odds of becoming a long term NFL starter. He’s going to go first overall, and that won’t be too much of a reach, even if he doesn’t touch the same highs as some top overall picks we’ve seen. He’s just a solid, well-rounded quarterback who does a lot of stuff well and has room to grow in the NFL.
Mendoza’s physical tools are impressive. He is 6-5 and 236 pounds, and he runs well enough to be a genuine threat that defenses have to worry about. He combines this sturdy frame with an arm that—while not quite at the level we’ve seen from players like Caleb Williams and Drake Maye in recent years—is strong enough to create opportunities at all levels of the field. He can launch the ball between a safety and a cornerback on a deep route, and he can fire lasers to the perimeter that defenders have no hopes of ever reaching.
Throwing to the perimeter is what Mendoza does best. He gets the ball out with good timing and rhythm, and it rarely ends up anywhere other than where he wants it. He is extremely accurate working to both sidelines, which makes him absolutely lethal on back shoulder throws. Pair him with a receiver with good ball skills and a couple times a game they’ll create a first down even when the defense is set up to stop it.
The best thing about Mendoza is that there really aren’t any bad parts to his game. He doesn’t throw with a lot of anticipation for windows over the middle, but he also doesn’t put the ball into harm’s way. The offense he ran was very simplified, leaning on a lot of one-read plays and RPOs, but when he was asked to execute more complex stuff he mostly looked good doing so. There are reasons for concern based off of sample size, and it may take a while to get fully in the rhythm of working through his reads at NFL speed. But I think he has enough of a base to figure that out over his first couple seasons.
If there is one real concern I have with Mendoza it’s about how he handles pressure. At Indiana he was basically never under pressure, thanks to the scheme and a very good offensive line. When he did face pressure, the results could be a little mixed. He made plenty of good plays and did a good job avoiding sacks, but there were also a couple times I saw that he didn’t feel backside pressure and got stripped as he was winding up to throw. He doesn’t do a lot outside of structure, and every now and then he’ll try to pull off a throw that’s ambitious even for his arm, on one occasion I saw leading to an underthrown ball and an ugly pick-six.
These
are situations he is going to face more in the NFL, and it will be up to him to
adjust. He’s not at a level where he looks outright panicked under pressure,
but it’s a potential issue that could keep him from living up to his potential.
But it’s also something he could figure out, and in the long run I think he
will. He may not make the sort of splash plays that separate the true top tier
of NFL quarterbacks, but I expect he’ll be a reliable starter for the next
decade.
Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama
There are a lot of red flags with Simpson. He’s on the smaller side for a quarterback, and his physical tools are merely average. He only started a single year at Alabama after spending three seasons on the bench. And his performance really tailed off as the season went along and he got into the meat of the schedule. Whether this was due to some nagging injury or a loss in confidence, by the end of the year he’d fallen from someone being in the conversation for a top five pick to someone who might not even make the first round.
These are all reasons for concern, and players with this sort of profile very rarely succeed in the NFL. And yet, I can’t help liking what I see from Simpson. There are the pieces of a good quarterback here, and after Mendoza he’s the only player from this class I think has a real shot of developing into a starter.
Three or four times a game Simpson will throw a ball that makes you sit up in your seat. He’s a very smart player who progresses through his reads well, and he is always looking to make the most of his opportunities down the field. He has an incredible feel for space over the middle of the field, holding the ball to wait for his receiver to clear into an open window and anticipating gaps in the defense to lead his target to where he has the best chance of making the catch. He’s able to alter the trajectory of his ball to clear underneath defenders, and he rarely gets fooled by a coverage.
Unfortunately, there are plenty of bad plays to go along with the good. The biggest issue for Simpson is accuracy, especially to the outside part of the field. He can make all the throws he needs to, but periodically the ball will fly off target. It’s usually still catchable, but it makes life harder for his receivers and takes away some plays that should be automatic.
Against pressure I’d describe him as inconsistent. He makes some very nice plays maneuvering in the pocket to wait for a throwing window to open, but he’ll also create some major losses trying to go into hero mode, scrambling backwards hoping to extend a play that is truly dead. He’s good at avoiding throwing interceptions, but he can be reckless carrying the football. When he does escape the pocket though, he is creative out of structure and can make good plays either throwing on the run or tucking the ball and taking it himself.
More than any other quarterback I can remember I wish Simpson had stayed for another year of college. Because there’s an NFL starter in here, but it will take some work to unlock it, work I’m not sure he’ll get a chance to do in the NFL. The common wisdom is to let a quarterback learn from the sideline, but Simpson has already spent years watching other people play football. He needs to play football himself, and he needs to do it in a place where his inconsistencies won’t get people fired.
And
even if it does pan out, the upside for Simpson is still limited. He might be
able to creep into the top ten of quarterbacks, but he’ll never be someone
defenses are truly scared of. It’s difficult to know how to value a player like
this. I’d probably feel best about him at the end of the first round, but teams
selecting there will either not be able to give him the reps he needs or else not give him the leash to work through his mistakes.
I think the best fits may actually be at the top of the second round, teams
that need a quarterback but also won’t put him under too much pressure to
succeed right away. In a couple years, as talent gets built around him, Simpson
can be the quarterback of a good NFL team. It will just require luck and some
patience.
Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU
The best case you can make for Nussmeier is that you should just ignore everything that has happened in the past year. He reportedly suffered a core injury during the offseason that hampered him the entire year, and it is believable watching him on film. In 2025 he was an extremely vanilla quarterback, executing the simplest parts of the offense and doing nothing beyond that. He picked who he wanted to throw to before the snap, and he generally threw it there, focusing on short, safe passes at the expense of trying anything down the field that might strain his injury.
Based only on his 2025 film, I’m not sure I’d even consider Nussmeier draftable. But I went back and watched a few of his games from 2024, and that’s where things get a little bit interesting. There are a lot of similarities between 2024 Nussmeier and 2025 Simpson. Both slightly undersized quarterbacks, but both with stronger arms than you’d expect. Both first year starters with some questionable decisionmaking, especially managing the pocket. And both capable of some incredible throws down the field, the sort of plays that force you to think long and hard about whether there’s something here worth investing in.
For Nussmeier his best throws also come working over the middle. He has good anticipation for windows and good feel for throwing with touch, able to layer balls over defenders to drop into the perfect place for the receiver. He throws very good deep sideline routes as well, and the back ends of defenses always have to be on alert.
There are enough other issues that I would still have Nussmeier comfortably below Simpson even if I completely ignore the most recent season. His aggression down the field often crosses the line into recklessness, and even in his “good” year he threw 12 interceptions (compared to only 5 for Simpson). He offers basically nothing as an athlete, and he is inconsistent throwing on the run, somehow seeming to be far better when moving to his left than to his right. His mechanics are fine in the ordinary course of play but break down quickly under pressure, and he frequently tries to throw the ball while fading away, leading to risky throws that rarely goes where he wants them.
Just
based on his 2024 tape, I would consider Nussmeier worth about a fourth round
pick. Most likely to be a long-term backup, but maybe with the upside to
develop into a functional bottom-half starter. I’m mostly willing to give him
the injury excuse for 2025, given it robbed him of basically all the things he
does well. But it still makes me a little nervous, so I’d probably bump him
down a round to play it safe.
Carson Beck, QB, Miami
If all you’re looking for is a backup quarterback, Beck isn’t a bad option. He’s got good enough size and good enough arm strength to play in the NFL, while not excelling enough in either to justify calling him a developmental prospect. He has plenty of experience with three years starting at a high level in college, and he knows how to execute the basic parts of an offense. His mechanics are clean, and his process is quick. The ball comes out on time on routine routes, and most of the time he puts it in a good spot as well. If you bring him in to run a simplified scheme with a good supporting cast, he can probably win some games as an NFL quarterback.
When things get messy around Beck though, there isn’t much he can do. He isn’t great about sensing pressure around him in the pocket, and even when he does feel it he is held back by a lack of athleticism. He doesn’t bring much to the table as a scrambler, and even when he tries to maneuver in the pocket he often doesn’t have the flexibility to adjust while keeping a solid throwing base beneath him. He’s smart enough to get to second and third reads, but his stiffness holds him back here as well, and his mechanics and accuracy degrade as he works across the field.
The other thing we have to talk about with Beck is the interceptions. In his three years as a starter he threw 30 picks, a problem that did not get any better with more experience. And the interceptions come in all sorts of flavors. Sometimes he misses a coverage rotation and throws it straight to a defender. Sometimes he fades away from pressure and leaves a ball floating over the middle of the field. And sometimes he makes all the correct decisions and simply misses with his target. He has a tendency to leave balls behind his receivers coming across the middle of the field, a lack of anticipation that makes it difficult to hit tight windows and robs his teammates of opportunities to pick up yards after the catch even when he does hit them.
Basically,
I see no scenario where Beck is a long-term starter in the NFL. His best plays
simply aren’t good enough to live with his worst plays, and he isn’t worth the
time it would take to develop him into what best case scenario might be the 20th
best quarterback in the league. But he also probably won’t wash out of the
league in a hurry either. Keep him on the bench, give him a spot start here and
there, and he can execute enough of a basic offense to keep a season from
totally collapsing when a starter goes down. Your mileage may vary on how you
value a player like this, but to me it’s about a fifth or a sixth round pick.
Drew Allar, QB, Penn State
Allar is the pie-in-the-sky project quarterback of this year’s class. He has good size to go along with the strongest arm of any quarterback I looked at this year, and he makes use of all his tools in flashes on the field. He can fire balls into tight windows, and he can make throws from awkward platforms that other quarterbacks wouldn’t (or at least shouldn’t) dare attempt. He isn’t the fastest player in the world, but he has enough speed to pose a threat as a runner, combined with his big frame that makes him a headache to try to tackle.
All of these tools will convince someone he’s worth trying to develop into a starter, but I just don’t see it. There are way too many flaws that need to be fixed for him to even be a capable NFL backup. He struggles to get to any receiver past his first option, and even when he tries to get to a second or third read he’s usually slow enough to miss any window that was there. His mechanics fall apart as he goes through his progression, and even when they’re good he can be wildly inaccurate.
I’m
not averse to project quarterbacks, but I’m less forgiving for someone like
Allar than I would be for someone with less experience or coming from a smaller
school. He was the top recruit coming out of high school, had years of the best
private coaches on the market, then spent four years at a premier college
working with multiple different offensive staffs whose number one goal was to
turn him into a good quarterback. Drafting him is betting that your coaches can
do what all of these previous coaches failed to do. Sometimes some people just can’t be
taught. I probably wouldn’t even bother spending a draft pick on Allar, no matter
how impressive he looks throwing a football in shorts.