Yesterday
I ran through what would happen in the draft if I was calling the shots. Today
I’m making my predictions for what will actually happen. As usual, I don’t
predict any trades in my draft, because I don’t think that’s as fun.
1) Las Vegas Raiders – Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
As
is the case most years, the first overall pick has basically been decided.
Mendoza is an excellent quarterback prospect, and the only one in the draft
worth taking this high. There was never really any other option for the Raiders
to consider here.
2) New York Jets – Arvell Reese, EDGE/LB, Ohio State
I
think this pick comes down to either Reese or David Bailey. Bailey is the more
developed prospect, but Reese’s athletic upside is difficult to turn away from.
If he can put everything together as a pass rusher he can be a true
game-changing player like few others in the league. Even if he doesn’t, his
skill as a linebacker means he’ll at least be an above average starter.
3) Arizona Cardinals – Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia
Offensive
line makes a lot of sense with this selection. The Cardinals have one good
tackle in Paris Johnson, but the line as a whole is still fairly mediocre, and
they need to find a solution before they make whatever move they are going to
make at quarterback. Freeling isn’t typically thought of as the top lineman,
but he’s the sort of athletic, ascending prospect who some team will fall in
love with.
4) Tennessee Titans – Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
It’s
clear that Tennessee wants to get Cam Ward some help. I don’t think this is the
best way to do it—an offensive line and a wide receiver are far more help to a
quarterback than a running back—but I can’t deny that Love is an exciting
prospect. He has a rare blend of power and speed to go along with excellent
skills as a receiver that will make him one of the best running backs in the
league in a couple years. The Titans are also a good candidate to trade back,
as they’d be able to slide down 5-10 picks while still being in position to get
the offensive help they need.
5) New York Giants – Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State
The
Giants will be picking between a few different Buckeyes at this point in the
draft. Caleb Downs would make a lot of sense, and Carnell Tate would be a good
piece to pair with Malik Nabers. But I think they’ll go with Styles. John
Harbaugh saw a massive improvement in his defense in Baltimore when they traded
for Roquan Smith, and Styles is the best linebacker prospect to enter the
league since Smith. He has the sort of rare skills in both run defense and
coverage that could make him a transformational piece that elevates the entire
defense around him.
6) Cleveland Browns – Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
The
Browns have two picks in the first round, and most people expect them to use
one on a receiver and one on an offensive lineman. The only question is what
order they go in, and I think (with Freeling off the board) they grab the
receiver first. Tate is a smooth, long athlete with good route running ability
and excellent ball skills. He isn’t the most explosive player, but he will be a
great friend to whoever ends up throwing him the football.
7) Washington Commanders – Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
Downs
is a difficult player to place. If you strip away positional value he is
probably the best player in the entire draft, but teams are reluctant to spend
a selection this high on a safety. Washington could prefer a higher-value
cornerback or pass rusher at this spot. But they need simple competence on the
back end of their defense, and Downs will provide that from day one.
8) New Orleans Saints – David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech
I
think this is about the bottom of Bailey’s range. Any of the teams above this
could decide to grab him, and quite a few teams would be interested in trading
up. But if he ends up here for the Saints, they wouldn’t even think twice about
picking someone else. He is an explosive pass rushing force who is better
against the run than he gets credit for.
9) Kansas City Chiefs – Rueben Bain, EDGE, Miami
There
has been a lot going around about Bain the past few weeks, concerns both on and
off the field. So I can’t rule out that he could fall farther than this. But I
also think Kansas City would be foolish to pass up the potential he offers as a
pass rusher. They’ve tried a few times to address the position with mixed
levels of success, and Bain is the sort of player that could solve things once
and for all and get them back into position to compete for Super Bowls.
10) New York Giants – Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State
The
Giants added this pick by trading away an impact defender, and I think they did
it because they want to add juice on offense. Tyson is another player who could
go a lot higher than this. He probably has the best tape of any receiver in the
class, and I could see a team falling in love with him and happily overlooking
concerns about his health and his questionable athletic juice.
11) Miami Dolphins – Francis Mauigoa, OT/OG, Miami
Mauigoa
could (and probably should) go a lot higher than this, but his slide allows him
to stick around Miami. The Dolphins desperately need talent anywhere, and
Mauigoa is a solid piece with a high floor who will offer them stability as
they try to build going forward. Basically every position is on the board for
the Dolphins, so they’ll end up taking whoever they think is the best player.
12) Dallas Cowboys – Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon
There
has been a lot of buzz about Dallas trying to move up the board for one of the
top pass rushers, but if they stay put I think they’ll be happy to add to the
back end of their defense instead. Thieneman tested as a sensational athlete
and has the skills to erase the back end of the defense. He needs to bulk up
and get better as a tackler, but he has the upside to be among the best in the
league if he puts everything together.
13) Los Angeles Rams – Makai Lemon, WR, USC
The
Rams have had a good receiving corps the entirety of Sean McVay’s tenure, but cracks
are appearing. Davante Adams is still lethal in the red zone, but the signs of
age are starting to show. And Puka Nacua has tons of off field concerns and is
entering the final year of his contract. Lemon would be a fantastic fit for the
McVay scheme, with incredible instincts for finding space out of the slot and
over the middle of the field.
14) Baltimore Ravens – Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon
Isaiah
Likely followed John Harbaugh to New York, and Mark Andrews is getting up there
in years, leaving the Ravens with a clear hole at the tight end position. Sadiq
is a very similar player to Likely, an athletic, flexible tight end who can
create big plays down the field. This feels like about where he’ll go, but if
the Ravens want to look elsewhere, they sneakily have holes at pretty much
every spot on their roster.
15) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Keldric Faulk, EDGE/DT, Auburn
Faulk
is a bit of a wild card. It’s easy to see him sliding as teams become skeptical
about his lack of pass rush juice. It’s also easy to see them falling in love
with his ability as a run stopper and his upside as an athlete. I think he’ll
end up somewhere in the 10-20 range, and I could see him going to any of the
teams here. Tampa Bay makes a lot of sense as a team with basically nothing on
the edge.
16) New York Jets – Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU
This
spot for the Jets feels like prime position to add receiving talent, but with
the top three names off the board in this scenario I think Delane’s talent is
hard to pass up. This is one of the picks the Jets got in return for Sauce
Gardner, and while Delane is a very different player stylistically, he can
slide in as a replacement as the team’s number one cornerback.
17) Detroit Lions – Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama
The
Lions have been paired with offensive linemen through most of the process, and
they have their pick of a few intriguing prospects here. Proctor has some
significant concerns, but he also has the sort of physical skills that will
make some team fall in love and take him higher than most people expect.
18) Minnesota Vikings – Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo
Outside
of the top few picks this might be the place with the most consistency in mock
drafts, with nearly everyone pairing the Vikings with Dillon Thieneman. When
something happens this often it can be a signal that there is something there,
and the Vikings do desperately need a safety. But I think McNeil-Warren is a
better fit for what they want to do on defense. He’s a rangy player with
excellent physicality and the ability to come down and play in the box, the
sort of versatility that is essential in Brian Flores’s defense.
19) Carolina Panthers – Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah
Carolina’s
offensive line stabilized last season after years of utter ineptitude, but they
could always use more help. Taylor Moton is 32 years old and expensive, and it
would make sense to grab someone with the plan to replace him. Lomu has a lot
of upside but is still figuring stuff out, so a year either playing guard or
refining his technique on the bench could help transition to the NFL.
20) Dallas Cowboys – Akheem Mesidor, EDGE, Miami
The
Cowboys don’t get their impact pass rusher with their first pick, so they
settle for more of a solid player down the board. I don’t love Mesidor—he’s not
that impressive as an athlete and is one of the oldest players in the class—but
he does some nice things on film that would fit in with Dallas’s defense. I
wouldn’t be surprised though if they decided to take a swing on one of the
higher-upside but less proven alternative options.
21) Pittsburgh Steelers – Blake Miller, OT, Clemson
I
don’t love Miller as a prospect, but he’s the sort of player who will
definitely have fans in the league. A gifted athlete with a lot of experience,
he’s the sort it’s hard to see sliding out of the first round. The Steelers
have spent a lot of draft capital along the offensive line is recent years, but
they still have issues at one tackle spot, with Broderick Jones struggling both
with health and when on the field.
22) Los Angeles Chargers – Olaivavega Ioane, OG, Penn State
The
Chargers are going to spend the entire night praying that Ioane gets to them,
and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them jump up a few slots to make sure they
grab him. If he isn’t there, they may try to reach for one of the other guards
instead. But they could also use some fresh talent at wide receiver or at pass
rusher.
23) Philadelphia Eagles – Omar Cooper, WR, Indiana
I
have no idea if AJ Brown will be an Eagle this year, and I get the feeling the
Eagles probably don’t either. But I’m pretty confident he won’t be there in
2027, and the Eagles have the sort of depth that allows them to think a year or
two ahead. Cooper would be a good fit for what Jalen Hurts wants to do on
offense, with the quickness to win off the line on slants and the ball skills
to make plays down the field. He’s been climbing throughout the process, and I
wouldn’t be surprised if he goes even higher than this.
24) Cleveland Browns – Spencer Fano, OT/OG, Utah
I
gave the Browns a receiver with their first pick, and now I give them a
lineman. What position Fano will play is still a big question, but the Browns
need help at basically all of them, Cleveland still has no idea what they’re
doing at quarterback, for this year or for the futures, but the combination of
Tate and Fano would give them two solid, high-floor players they can count on
as they build their offense going forward.
25) Chicago Bears – Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee
McCoy
is the wild card of the first round. A couple weeks ago I thought he was a lock
for a top ten pick, as he tested extraordinarily well and in theory put
concerns about his knee to rest. But apparently new concerns have popped up,
and now I could imagine him sliding out of the first round entirely like Will
Johnson did a year ago. McCoy is a better prospect than Johnson, and I think
someone will take a chance on his talent. The Bears seem like a team that can
afford to take a flyer on a high-upside player like this.
26) Buffalo Bills – Cashius Howell, EDGE, Texas A&M
The
biggest problem the Bills had a year ago was stopping the run, and Howell isn’t
going to fix that. It’s tempting to pair them with Kayden McDonald, but I think
they’ll roll with second year player Deone Walker as the space-eating force in
the middle. Instead I’ll have them address their pass rush. Howell is a player
with some clear flaws, but he is as explosive and flexible as any pass rusher
in this class. In the near term he’s the sort of player who can make an impact
in a situational role, coming onto the field on passing downs simply to get
after the quarterback.
27) San Francisco 49ers – CJ Allen, LB, Georgia
Allen
is a player I just kind of feel is going to end in the first round, so here I’m
giving him to San Francisco. He isn’t as well-rounded as the two Ohio State
linebackers, but he is an excellent athlete who can make a lot of good plays
against the run. How he develops from here is a big question, but in San
Francisco he’d have a good supporting cast to help him as he figures things
out.
28) Houston Texans – Kayden McDonald, DT, Ohio State
McDonald
is the sort of player who always seems to find his way into the first round—a
big, run-stuffing nose tackle who has some doubters among the people who care
about positional value but is loved by NFL coaches. He’s one of the better
versions of this type of prospect, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go even
higher than this. Putting him in Houston would make a lot of sense, where they
already have enough pass rushing juice that they can live with someone who just
sits in the middle and swallows the running game.
29) Kansas City Chiefs – Chris Johnson, CB, San Diego State
This
is the pick the Chiefs got for trading away Trent McDuffie, and I wouldn’t be
surprised if they used it to replace him. I think they’ll use one of their
first two picks on a cornerback, and Johnson is a name I could see sneaking
into the first round. He’s a great athlete who dominated at a smaller program
in college. There are concerns about how he will translate to regularly facing
NFL talent, but someone will gamble on the upside at this point in the draft.
30) Miami Dolphins – Denzel Boston, WR, Washington
Similarly
I see the Dolphins replacing a wide receiver with a wide receiver. Boston is a
very different player from Jaylen Waddle, but he has rare size and physicality
that will make him a headache for any defense to face. He’ll slide some due to
concerns about his explosiveness, but this is around where similar players like
Tee Higgins and Courtland Sutton went (or if you want to be less generous, Keon
Coleman).
31) New England Patriots – Malachi Lawrence, EDGE, UCF
There
is a very interesting second tier of pass rushers, and I think one surprising
name will sneak into the first round. Of them I’m picking Lawrence, who
possesses the sort of athletic upside that is rare to find at this point in the
draft. He is 6-4 and 253 pounds with long arms and insane athletic testing.
With 20 sacks across the past three seasons his production doesn’t jump off the
board, but there’s enough there to build on as an NFL pass rusher.
32) Seattle Seahawks – Emmanuel Pregnon, OG, Oregon
The Seahawks really only had one glaring hole on offense last year, and that was at right guard. Spending a second straight first round pick on a guard would be a little strange, but this team is well rounded enough that they can afford some luxury selections. That similarly means they’re open to ignoring positional need altogether, and I wouldn’t be shocked by any pick here. One big loss this offseason is Kenneth Walker, and while I don’t think there’s a running back worth taking at this spot, it wouldn’t be the first time the Seahawks pulled this kind of move.
This
is also a very good candidate for a trade down. The Seahawks are light on draft
capital, and we’ve seen a number of teams over the years move back into the
first round to grab an extra year of team control on a rookie’s contract. If I
had to pick one, I could see Arizona jumping up here (or even higher) to make
sure they secure Ty Simpson. But mock drafts are more fun with some
constraints, so I’ll stick the Seahawks here and give them a guard.
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