Yesterday
I put out a mock draft based on who I would select with every pick. Today I am
taking the opposite approach, trying to predict what will actually happen. I
think the best I’ve ever done with one of these mock drafts is getting seven of
the 32 picks correct, but I have a good feeling I nailed every single one this
year.
Since my last mock draft, the Chiefs decided to throw their first round pick over to Seattle. Fortunately they are selecting late in the first round, so it didn't require much to change my predictions. Still, I would appreciate it if teams could hold off on trades until the actual start of the draft, thank you very much.
Again,
if you find yourself wanting to know more about these prospects, just click the
links here.
1)
Arizona Cardinals – Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
There
have been some reports backing off from this recently, but most signs still
point to the Cardinals taking the high upside gamble on the exciting athlete
out of Oklahoma. Murray will be a perfect fit for Kliff Kingsbury’s offense,
much more so than Josh Rosen. Whether they find a reasonable trade offer for
Rosen or decide to keep him around as competition, I don’t think they’ll let
his presence dissuade them from picking the reigning Heisman winner.
2) San
Francisco 49ers – Nick Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State
This
works out perfectly for the 49ers, who get the best edge pass rusher in the
draft to fall right into their laps. Bosa will give them a true edge player for
the first time in years, allowing them to be more creative with how they use
DeForest Buckner and Solomon Thomas on the inside.
3) New
York Jets – Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky
After
giving up three second round picks to move up to the third selection last year,
the Jets would probably like to go the opposite direction and recoup some of
those losses. But since I don’t predict trades in mock drafts, they’re stuck at
number three, and instead they add a top notch athlete to their defense. They
came up short in their attempt to sign Anthony Barr in free agency, so they try
to fill that hole with a similar big, versatile linebacker, someone who can
both rush the passer and drop back into coverage as the play call demands.
4) Oakland
Raiders – Ed Oliver, DT, Houston
This is the pick where things could really get weird. I have a feeling the Raiders are going to swing for the fences with a high upside athlete, but I'm not sure who they'll choose. I'll pencil in Oliver, who has bounced around quite a bit during the draft process. In the end, I think someone will overlook concerns about his size and select this unique backfield disruptor in the top five.
5) Tampa
Bay Buccaneers – Devin White, LB, LSU
This is a link that has become increasingly common over the past week. Tampa Bay reportedly loves White, and he would be an excellent fit in the middle of their revamped defense. Todd Bowles loves to blitz, and White is at his best flowing downhill. He could be the rare sort of off ball linebacker who can rack up close to double digit sacks, much as Daryl Washington did with Bowles back in Arizona.
6) New
York Giants – Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
I
don’t get it, but there are a lot of reports out there that the Giants are
enamored with the tall, smart quarterback out of Duke. Jones has a lot of
connections to the Manning family, and having him as a backup will help prevent
them from alienating Eli. They might potentially pass on him here in the hope
that he falls to their second first round pick, but in the end I think they
will decide that is too great a risk to take.
7) Jacksonville
Jaguars – Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida
The
Jaguars spent a lot of money on Nick Foles, and they probably want to keep him
upright. But in truth I think they are still dedicated to working the ball on
the ground, and this is the part of the game where Taylor really shines. He’s a
mean, physical force as a run blocker, and if Leonard Fournette is still part
of their attack, they have the ability to have a very nice downhill power
rushing attack.
8) Detroit
Lions – Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama
The Lions are a hard team to peg, but I have to imagine they jump for joy if Williams falls to them. In my mind he is the best player in the class, and getting him at number eight would be a franchise changing steal. Of course, Detroit is hardly a team you can count on to do the smart thing, and they have enough needs at every position that I can't really rule out anyone at this point.
9) Buffalo
Bills – DK Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss
The
Bills spent a top ten pick on Josh Allen a year ago and gave him absolutely
nothing to work with. They need to fix that this year, and Metcalf would be the
perfect partner for their strong armed, aggressive quarterback. Metcalf has
everything you want from a deep threat, with the size to make catches in a big
window and the speed to separate over he top. He has some work to do to become
a complete receiver, but that’s fine for a team committed to a long term
rebuilding plan.
10) Denver
Broncos – Devin Bush, LB, LSU
Ever
since the draft process started there have been dozens of reports indicating
that John Elway is enamored with quarterback Drew Lock from Missouri. That is
definitely a direction they could go here, but I’m betting new head coach Vic
Fangio convinces Elway to invest instead in his defense. Bush isn’t as good a
prospect as Fangio got in Roquan Smith in Chicago a year ago, but he’s a
similar type player, an aggressive athlete flying sideline to sideline from the
middle of the defense.
11) Cincinnati
Bengals – Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama
When
the Bengals were at their best a couple years ago, their offense worked because
of the line. They tried once to rebuild it with youth, but that was a miserable
failure, with a pair of highly drafted busts in Cedric Ogbuehi (projected as a
backup in Jacksonville) and Jake Fisher (reportedly trying to transition to
tight end in Buffalo). Cordy Glenn brought some stability last year, but he is
past his prime, and it’s time to try another youth movement along the front.
12) Green
Bay Packers – TJ Hockenson, TE, Iowa
The
Packers have been trying to get Aaron Rodgers a top notch tight end for years.
Jermichael Finley couldn’t stay healthy. Jared Cook was a great athlete who
didn’t know how to play the position. Jimmy Graham is past his prime. This year
I think they invest a high pick in the position, taking either Hockenson or his
teammate Noah Fant. Both are excellent athletes, and while Fant is the more
dangerous receiver on the outside, Hockenson’s versatility will likely make him
the top tight end off the board.
13) Miami
Dolphins – Brian Burns, EDGE, Florida State
The
Dolphins are hard to predict, because they could go pretty much any direction.
They’re working on rebuilding, so they don’t need someone who can contribute
right away. There isn’t really a position on their team that seems well set. I
could see them trading down to get more shots at young talent, or leaping up if
there is a quarterback they love. Right here I’ll play it safe and give them a
high upside pass rusher.
14)
Atlanta Falcons – Cody Ford, OT/OG, Oklahoma
This
is one of only two picks where my two mock drafts line up, which means it is the one
least likely to happen. I don’t even have any particularly strong hunch that
links Ford to the Falcons. They are probably targeting a defensive lineman, but
most of the top linemen have gone off the board already. So I think they’ll try
to address their offensive line, and Ford brings the sort of positional
versatility that would be very useful for a team trying to put something
together on the fly.
15) Washington
Redskins – Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
Washington
traded for Case Keenum, but he only has a year left on his contract, and they
gave up basically nothing to get him. They should probably be
treating their situation as if Alex Smith is never coming back, at which point
they need to find something cheap and reliable at quarterback for the future. A
first round pick fits that description, and Haskins is the best option
available at this point. After being widely considered the top quarterback
available for most of the process, he seems to have slid some in recent
projections. I could still see him going top five, and I could see him falling
all the way to the bottom of the first round. So right in the middle seems a
good place to stick him.
16) Carolina
Panthers – Rashan Gary, EDGE, Michigan
Last year Carolina's best pass rusher was the 38 year old Julius Peppers. They need something better on the outside, and while Gary probably isn't that right away, he can get there eventually. Gary is a sensational athlete, a huge defensive end with the speed to blow around the corner and the power to force his way inside. Actually using these gifts is the challenge, but he'll get plenty of practice messing around with technique as the Panthers are forced to turn to him for pass rush pretty much right away.
17) New
York Giants – Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson
The
Giants obtained this pick by crippling their offense, so it’s natural that it’s
flown under the radar that they have also crippled their defense. After losing
Jason Pierre-Paul a year ago in free agency, they traded away Damon Harrison
during the season and Olivier Vernon after the season ended. That’s a lot of
talent stripped away from their defensive line, and they are going to need to
invest some high draft picks to get it back to what it once was. They would
probably prefer a more traditional edge rusher, but most of the best options
there are off the board, so instead they stack up the inside next to Dalvin
Tomlinson.
18) Minnesota
Vikings – Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State
I'm not sure if Mike Zimmer would necessarily be thrilled with this pick, given his repeated hyping of the running game and Dillard's relative inexperience as a run blocker. It isn't the best fit for Minnesota's needs either, as they are much closer to set at tackle than they are at guard. Someone with more versatility like Cody Ford or Jawaan Taylor would probably be preferred by them. But Dillard is the best long term option in the class, an elite athlete who has proven repeatedly that he can be trusted to hold down a quarterback's blind side.
19) Tennessee
Titans – Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson
Lawrence
is a big space eater on the inside, and I don’t see the value in taking a
player like that in the first round. But the NFL seems to disagree with me, and
I’ve read that several teams view Lawrence as a first round prospect. Tennessee
seems like the right sort of backwards thinking franchise to invest a high pick
in a run stuffing force in the middle.
20) Pittsburgh
Steelers –AJ Brown, WR, Ole Miss
Out with one Brown, in with another. Pittsburgh will likely want to reload on the outside, and while they've shown an extraordinary ability to identify and develop receivers in later rounds, the best option left on the board is to use their first pick to replace their departed star. Brown is a very similar player to JuJu Smith-Schuster, in that both can do pretty much everything you would ask of a wide receiver. Their versatility will open up a lot of creative options on offense and allow Ben Roethlisberger to keep rolling even after losing one of the greatest receivers of all time.
21)
Seattle Seahawks – Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State
There
are reportedly medical concerns about Sweat, and it’s impossible to know which
teams are okay with him and which teams don’t feel comfortable drafting him at
all. He’ll undoubtedly slide down the board some, and I’m guessing he’ll be
snagged sometime near the end of the first round. With Frank Clark now in Kansas City, the Seahawks are in need of someone to bring a pass rush off the edge, and Sweat is a top ten talent who could be available to them late in the first round.
22) Baltimore
Ravens – Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama
The
Ravens built a run first attack around Lamar Jackson a year ago, and they did
it without a reliable option at running back. They will likely open things up
more this year, but even if they do they are going to want to keep the ball on
the ground. Jacobs is the most complete running back in this class, and he’d be
a good fit beside Jackson as a versatile option who can pound the ball up the
middle or outrun defenses to the edge.
23) Houston
Texans – Garrett Bradbury, C, NC State
The
offensive linemen ended up going off the board faster than I expected in this
mock draft, and I’m sure Houston isn’t happy that Bradbury is the best option
available to them here. But they’ve spent the past two years letting DeShaun
Watson get torn to pieces behind the least talented line in football, and they
absolutely have to invest in some protection for him this year. Bradbury is an excellent athlete in the middle of the offense, and while he isn't the edge pass protector they desperately need, he will certainly be a major boost to a line that was awful a year ago.
24) Oakland
Raiders – Greedy Williams, CB, LSU
I
had the Raiders taking Williams with their first pick in my other mock draft.
But in this version teams are a bit less excited by the athletic and aggressive
cornerback out of LSU, and he’s available for them later in the first rournd.
Williams can make some mistakes at times, and he can be outmatched physically by
stronger receivers. But in terms of athletic ability and ball skills he’s the
best cornerback in the class, a steal this late in the first round.
25) Philadelphia
Eagles – Byron Murphy, CB, Washington
Philadelphia’s
secondary was decimated by injuries a year ago, but it was a weak point of
their team even before that. Murphy is a low ceiling/high floor type prospect
who can come in and contribute immediately. With experience in a wide variety
of schemes, he won’t limit their ability to call defenses, and he’ll give them
a chance to pull things together once again on the back end.
26) Indianapolis
Colts – Clelin Ferrell, EDGE, Clemson
As
the Colts spent next to nothing in free agency, they can do pretty much
whatever they want with this selection. Add a wide receiver for Andrew Luck to
throw to. Beef up their offensive line even more after taking a leap last year.
Find another cornerback or safety, or even put another elite linebacker next to
Darius Leonard. But the biggest need is still pass rush, where the combination
of Jabaal Sheard and Tyquan Lewis isn’t going to cut it for another season.
27) Oakland
Raiders – Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
As
we saw with the Browns a couple years ago, the luxury of having three first
round picks is that you can take a shot on high upside athletes, knowing
there’s less pressure on each individual selection to produce a sure starter. I
already grabbed Gary and Williams for the defensive side, so let’s get arguably
the best athlete on offense in the class. Fant has the potential to be the most
dangerous receiving tight end in the league, but he’s still figuring out how to
use his prodigious gifts. If he ever does put it together, he’ll be a weapon
that few teams can hope to slow down.
28) Los
Angeles Chargers – Jerry Tillery, DT, Notre Dame
Just
what the Chargers need, another dangerous pass rusher. The Chargers lost
longtime frontline mainstay Corey Liuget this offseason, and Tillery is the
perfect replacement on the inside. He isn’t the best run defender in the world,
but his speed and his hands make him lethal as a pass rusher. Put him between
Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, and there really isn’t much that an offense can do
to keep the quarterback upright.
29) Seattle Seahawks –Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma
With the pick they just added from Kansas City, I think the Seahawks try to give their newly paid quarterback another weapon to work with. Russell Wilson throws one of the best deep balls in the league, so you might as well give him an elite deep receiver to stretch the field. There are very reasonable concerns about Brown's size, but I think his speed and run after the catch ability are enough to entice someone into selecting him in the first round.
30) Green
Bay Packers –Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
Okay, I admit, this is mostly just to troll a friend of mine who's a Packers fan. I don't think Green Bay will select a quarterback in the first round, even though Rodgers is now the same age Favre was when they took him in the first round in 2005. But I can't really find any good values at positions of need to stick here, and I think this would be a good slot for someone (possibly Denver) to trade up to in order to grab Lock before the first round expires.
Okay, I admit, this is mostly just to troll a friend of mine who's a Packers fan. I don't think Green Bay will select a quarterback in the first round, even though Rodgers is now the same age Favre was when they took him in the first round in 2005. But I can't really find any good values at positions of need to stick here, and I think this would be a good slot for someone (possibly Denver) to trade up to in order to grab Lock before the first round expires.
31) Los
Angeles Rams – Jonathan Abrams, S, Mississippi State
I
don’t know if Los Angeles is his ultimate destination, but I have a feeling
Abrams is going to sneak into the first round. He’s a good athlete on the back
end, and more than anything else he’s a hard hitting tone setter that old
fashioned football coaches fall in love with. The Rams need to add some cheap young talent to what is an otherwise extremely pricy secondary, and Abrams will benefit a great deal from watching how Eric Weddle plays.
32) New
England Patriots – Jeffery Simmons, DT, Mississippi State
Is
it the most sensible thing for a team with a closing window to draft an injured
player who will only be able to contribute in a limited way this year? No.
Would the memory of a miss on a similarly talented but injured player in
Dominique Easley scare a lot of teams away from this sort of selection? Yes.
But the Patriots are not most teams, and they don’t always follow the logic
that other teams do. Bill Belichick will see a top ten talent available at the
end of the first round, and he will gladly take him, even if it’s not a
decision a lot of other teams would make.
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