2019 Wide Receive and Tight End Prospects

And we’re back. With a month to go before the NFL Draft kicks off, it’s time to start looking at the top prospects entering the league this year, starting today with the wide receivers and tight ends. For the fourth year in a row there are no clear future superstars to be found, but there are a lot of options with interesting traits, starting with one of the most unique athletes the NFL has seen in quite some time.

DK Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss

Metcalf hasn’t played a snap in the NFL, and he’s already the stuff of legends. The photos taken of him in the leadup to the Combine were almost absurd, looking more like a linebacker than a wide receiver. Standing 6-3 and weighing 228 pounds, he ran an impossible 4.33 forty yard dash and exploded for 40.5 and 134 inches in the vertical and broad jumps. It’s one of the most impressive Combine performances we have ever seen, bringing up countless references to players like Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones.

Naturally there was blowback to this, and even people who have never watched Metcalf play now have opinions on his future prospects. It is fair to raise a few questions about his game. As exemplary as he was in most of the Combine tests, he was just as abysmal in the agility drills, ranking in the bottom five percent of all wide receivers in the three cone and short shuttle. His production in college wasn’t extraordinary, partially due to injuries but largely due to a very limited route tree that really only sent him on vertical routes down the sideline. He is raw as a prospect, he struggled with drops at times in his college career, and many people are dismissing him as just an athlete, the next Jonathan Baldwin or Stephen Hill.

There are parts of this that are fair, but a lot of it is overblown. It is true that his game is all about athleticism, but athleticism is a very important part of being a wide receiver. Metcalf’s entire game is built around his size and his speed, his ability to both beat defenses over the top and absorb punishment in congested areas. His strength and surprising lateral quickness off the line make him impossible to disrupt with press coverage, and his speed down the field means that if you get off balance for even a second, he is long gone before you can recover. He only ran deep routes at Mississippi, but that was largely because that was all the offense asked him to do. When he did run other routes, he showed a good feel for varying pacing to create separation despite his inability to make sharp cuts at full speed.

The lack of quickness does raise a few concerns about long term limitations to Metcalf’s game, but even if there are a few routes he will never be able to consistently win on, he has the potential to be among the best receivers in the league. Despite this potential, I still would probably hesitate to take him in the top ten. As extraordinary as he is in a few aspects of the position, there are quite a few others where he is merely okay. He picks up the yards available after the catch, but he doesn’t create in space. Despite his big body, he isn’t dominant at the catch point and he doesn’t always make plays outside his frame. These are areas he could be very good at in a couple of years, but the uncertainty has to knock him down into the middle of the first round, despite the tantalizing visions of what he might become.

Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa State

 

Butler is another big receiver with vertical speed, so it’s hard not to start by comparing him to Metcalf. He has a couple inches in height, but he isn’t nearly as bulky, and this occasionally presents issues on the field. He can play a little high at the line of scrimmage, and at times he can let press coverage into his chest. But he also has an incredibly strong upper body (which shows up as well as a quality blocker), and with some development he can become good enough at hand fighting to minimize this threat.

He didn’t shatter expectations with his forty like Metcalf did, but a 4.49 at his size is nothing to sneer at. This speed translates to the field where he can consistently win over the top. He tracks the ball well in the air, and he leaves himself good space to work on the sidelines. And even when he doesn’t win over the top, his height and length mean that he is almost always open. He is capable of some sensational catches, going up and around defenders to pluck the ball out of the air while running at full speed. He is a weapon on red zone fades, and he’ll have a role to play there immediately even if the rest of his game takes some time to round into shape.

He is probably a safer prospect than Metcalf, but the upside is nowhere near as high. Despite occasional flashes of sharp breaks on routes, he struggles just as much as most big receivers when it comes to agility. He didn’t even participate in the agility tests at the Combine, knowing he would fare poorly and hurt his stock. In the long run, I think he can develop into a quality top option for a team at wide receiver. But I’m not sure if he has what it takes to brush the upper echelons of the league at that position.

AJ Brown, WR, Ole Miss

Brown is a classic jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none wide receiver. His lack of elite abilities knock him below the top receivers on this list, but his versatility raises him above some of the one trick ponies farther down my board. He can play in the slot or on the perimeter. He has the speed to challenge defenders down the field, even if he doesn’t have the rare separation ability of Metcalf. He wins sometimes as the point of the catch, but he doesn’t quite go up like Butler. He is good at a lot of things, but not great at anything.

The closest he comes to greatness is running after the catch. He is stocky with good quickness, able to make cuts to give himself just enough space to power through arm tackles. He can turn an underneath route into a big play, which is what he was asked to do most often at Ole Miss. While his teammates challenged defenses deep down the sidelines, he worked the underneath portion of the field out of the slot, breaking in and out with sharp cuts that got him enough space to work with once the ball ended up in his hands.

The nice thing about a player like Brown is that he can be whatever you want him to be, except a top receiving option on an offense. If defenses concentrate the coverage on him, he doesn’t have the speed or the route running ability to beat top cornerbacks or safety brackets. But he gives you the flexibility to make your top receiver whatever you do want. Pair him with an elite deep threat, and he can work underneath. Put him with a quick, sharp route runner, and he can be your big play threat. He’ll be an excellent role player for the next decade in the league with a little bit of upside to be something more, and that sort of player is worth grabbing at the end of the first round.

Noah Fant, TE, Iowa

So much has been made about the Combine performance by Metcalf, and only a few people seem to have noticed that Fant was arguably even better in Indianapolis. Though they technically play different positions, their uses in the NFL will likely be very similar. Fant is a big, fast receiver who excels on the outside, and he put up numbers that show just how freakish he is. Weighing twenty pounds more than Metcalf, he bested him in both of the agility drills, as well as running a 4.5 forty and having a 39.5 inch vertical leap. Among tight ends he did better than the 90^th percentile in all but one drill, an athlete who is as well rounded as he is explosive.

So why am I so much higher on Metcalf than on Fant, who I wouldn’t think about taking until the very end of the first round? It’s simply a matter of what tradeoffs I’m willing to make. Yes, Fant is more agile, and this agility shows up sporadically in his route running. He’s better at subtle bends than he is at sharp breaks, but he ran a much more versatile route tree in college than most wide receivers. I believe he has the capability to be an effective player running away from safeties and linebackers when they are matched up on him.

Of course, no one is forcing defenses to play Fant as a tight end. It’s a different story if they just treat him as a wide receiver, facing him off against cornerbacks who aren’t nearly as awed by his 4.5 speed. A good tight end is able to win these matchups with strength and physicality, but those parts of Fant’s game are still in need of development. He doesn’t have the catch radius to match his big frame, and while he’s functional as a blocker on the end of the line of scrimmage, this alignment minimizes the damage he can do as a receiver. If he does figure out how to use his size to overwhelm defensive backs, he could be a top ten player in this class. But until then he’s just a slower version of the top two receivers.

Irv Smith, TE, Alabama

The number one thing I value in a tight end is versatility. I want someone that constantly puts defenses in a bind, someone who can play big when a defense tries to cover him with a cornerback, and someone who can play fast when he faces a linebacker or a safety. Smith was certainly the most versatile of the major tight end prospects in his time at Alabama, and he should be able to slide smoothly into a number of different roles in the NFL.

Smith lined up at pretty much every position imaginable for the Crimson Tide. He can split out wide and run routes down the sideline. He can line up tight with the line as a blocker or as a receiver over the middle of the field. He is excellent as a lead blocker from a wing position or even as a full back in the backfield, taking precise angles to linebackers and sealing them off for the running back to cut behind him. He’s a capable receiver as well, combining quality route running with strength at the catch point.

The one thing that scares me about Smith is athleticism. He ran a 4.63 in the forty yard dash, but in every other measure of size and athleticism he was below average at the Combine. This does show up on the field as well. He can be frustrated by physical coverage, without the strength or the speed to make defenders pay for getting in his face. He’s merely okay running after the catch, and he’s not a threat to go up over smaller defenders.

Smith is ready to slide into a role right away in the NFL, and he might be worth a top team taking a flyer on an instant contributor late in the first round. But I have a feeling he’s already as good as he is going to be, and that knocks him down a couple notches in my book.

TJ Hockenson, TE, Iowa

Hockenson has similar versatility to Smith, without any of the questions surrounding his athleticism. He absolutely tore apart the Combine, only overshadowed by his teammate Noah Fant among tight ends. He has speed, quickness, and leaping ability, and he was effective as both a receiver and a blocker in college. I don’t think it would be unreasonable to prefer him to Smith based purely on upside, even though he isn’t as well rounded a player right now.

The difference between these tight ends is minute, and ultimately it comes down to a few glaring holes in Hockenson’s game. He has a reputation as an excellent blocker, but that’s not what I saw when watching him. He can dominate if his guy is lined up directly across from him, but he struggles moving in space to the second level. He’s generally slow off the ball, and his route running doesn’t naturally earn him a lot of separation against man coverage. Once he gets up to top speed he can take the top off a defense, but it takes him a few too many steps to reach that point.

The thing that makes Hockenson interesting is that I feel he was misused in college. He spent most of his time down in a three point stance at the end of the line, which limited his effectiveness as a receiver. He is much better standing up out in the slot, where he can use his quickness to win in space. If he transitions to more of a pure receiver role in the NFL, there is certainly a high ceiling for what he can become. He has a big catch radius, and he is excellent after the catch. This is where his true upside is, and that upside might be enough to justify him sneaking into the first round, even if there is enough uncertainty that I might hesitate until day two.

N’Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State

Speed is an essential part of playing wide receiver in the NFL. There are certainly exceptions, dominant wide receivers who excel despite not being burners. But these players win by being elite in at least one aspect of the game. Keenan Allen is one of the best route runners in the NFL. DeAndre Hopkins catches everything that enters his zip code. They don’t run away from defenders, but they still find ways to create separation, and to take advantage of the smaller spaces they are able to find.

I don’t know if Harry has that kind of elite ability. He’s certainly impressive at times on contested catches. He has strong hands and a wide frame, and he’s able to shield defenders from the ball as they try to make a break on it. He’s a good, if inconsistent route runner, and he is extremely effective after the catch, able to power through tackles and drive his way forward through space.

But the lack of speed remains an issue. He ran a 4.55 forty, but he plays slower than that on the field, and the cornerbacks he faced in college never seemed particularly troubled when he tried to threaten them over the top. When they play him tight to the line, there is very little he can do to generate separation from them. Good cornerbacks have no trouble keeping pace with him, and they are able to play slow enough that they can easily get their heads around to find the ball while remaining in his hip pocket.

In the right situation Harry can be a very effective wide receiver. He might be best playing in the slot, where he will face off against smaller cornerbacks he can easily overwhelm physically or safeties that are more a match for him in terms of speed. The windows throwing to him will be smaller, but his ability to win at the catch point mean those windows will be there for a precise quarterback to hit. But he’ll never be a consistent top receiving option for an offense, and the downside that he turns into the next Laquon Treadwell is enough to scare me into dropping him to the second round.

Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma

Brown is the opposite story of Harry. His entire game is about speed, the speed to stretch the field both before the ball is in the air and once it’s in his hands. In a way this makes him a lot safer as a prospect than Harry, since every offense in the league knows how to use someone who can take the top off the opposing defense. But fast, small receivers are a dime a dozen in the NFL, and to be truly effective on a consistent basis a deep threat needs other skills. He needs to be able to track the ball and adjust to it in the air. He needs to be able to beat press coverage and not get pushed around by physical defensive backs. And he needs to be able to sell a deep route before breaking off underneath, just to keep defenses on their toes when he does decide to launch himself down the field.

Brown is a mixed bag in these other areas, but he has enough skills to justify taking in the second round. He has a good release off the line of scrimmage to keep defenders from getting their hands on him, which is good because he is basically helpless against any physicality. Even for a speed receiver he is small, standing only 5-9 and weighing 166 pounds. He gets pushed around on his routes and at the point of the catch, and he doesn’t break tackles once he has the ball in his hands. But he can run away from anyone, which makes him dangerous enough on screens and slant routes to force defenses to tighten up against him.

I’m interested to see how he develops as a route runner. He didn’t do much other than run vertically in college, largely because that was all Oklahoma was interested in doing. He showed good nuance on these vertical routes, giving himself space on the sideline and bending his path into open areas of the field. When he was asked to run more varied routes, he showed quick cuts that made up for the fact that he didn’t always disguise his intentions. Unfortunately he doesn’t have a big catch radius or the ability to shield defenders from the ball, so the openings he create are smaller and briefer than you would like. But there is some room for development there, and I do think there is a chance he can become more than the pure deep threat he was in college.

Riley Ridley, WR, Georgia

Like pretty much every player from Georgia, Ridley had a disappointing Combine. It wasn’t a surprise when he ran a miserable 4.58 in the forty yard dash. Long speed is not his strength, and that was always going to be a concern headed to the next level. He doesn’t threaten defenses over the top, and unlike some of the other slower receivers in this draft, he doesn’t have the physicality and frame to make contested catches down the field. He is always going to be a receiver who has to win in the underneath and intermediate levels.

It was more concerning that he did so poorly in the agility drills. Ridley’s entire game is built off of a single explosive step. He launches off the line of scrimmage, quick enough either up the field or jumping laterally to provide an immediate stress on opposing cornerbacks. It is difficult to get hands on him, and even more difficult to match his ability to stop on a dime when working down the field. He’s lethal on comeback routes, and he works the sideline well to give quarterbacks plenty of space to throw on his back shoulder.

Outside of this single explosive step, there’s really nothing special about Ridley. His hands aren’t great, and while he can make defenders miss in the open field, he doesn’t have the speed to get more than a couple extra yards. He has very little experience running routes across the middle of the field, and I don’t think that will ever be a strong point for him. And the fact that this explosive step didn’t show up at the Combine is concerning enough for me that I would slide him from what looks on tape like a second round player down into the upper edges of the third round.

JJ Arcega-Whiteside, WR, Stanford

Arcega-Whiteside is one of the more perplexing prospects I’ve ever had to scout. If we were judging him solely on his ability to create separation, I’m not sure he’d even be draftable. He’s slow, and he doesn’t run particularly good routes. Cornerbacks aren’t threatened by him vertically, and they are able to get in his face and press him at the line of scrimmage. If you judge solely based on the space he leaves available, he is almost never open.

At the same time, he is almost always open. Because he happens to be one of the best contested catch receivers I have ever seen. He can go up over smaller cornerbacks to pluck the ball out of the air. He adjusts to deep throws to come back and steal the ball against double coverage. And he is an expert at using his body to box out defenders, planting a wide base in the ground and letting his 6-2 frame adjust to snag a ball most other receivers wouldn’t be able to reach.

I’m not sure what to make of this. On the one hand, he’ll face a lot more cornerbacks with size that can match him in the NFL. These contested catches will be tougher, and the windows to make plays will be even smaller. He’ll need to be partnered with a quarterback who trusts him and is willing to take risks, and who can hit the small target he provides. But if he has that, he is a player who can break a game open at any given moment, a red zone nightmare who can also make plays down the field. Or he could turn out to be totally useless, unable to keep up with bigger, faster coverage in the NFL. The risk is very real, and the upside isn’t all that high, which is why I think the third round is probably the best spot for him.

Kelvin Harmon, WR, NC State

Harmon is one of the safer prospects in this entire draft class. You know what you’re getting with him, which is a solid if unspectacular number two wide receiver. He isn’t a great athlete, but he has good size and the ability to go outside his frame to make catches. He’s functional as a route runner, he’s reliable catching the ball, and he has experience running a broad route tree that will make his transition to the NFL easier.

Harmon’s best trait is his ability to find and adjust to the ball while it’s in the air. He’ll be very good on back shoulder throws, though it would help if he left more room between himself and the sideline when running down the field. He needs work learning to beat press coverage, but he has the physical tools to be effective doing this as well.

A cornerback with good length and speed can erase Harmon without much trouble, which is why he’ll need to be partnered with a better receiver to draw coverage away. The upside just isn’t there for him, but the downside really isn’t either. I wouldn’t be excited enough to take him in the second round, but I could justify grabbing him ahead of either of the two I have listed above, preferring the safe option over more unique players with one clear dominant trait.