2019 Linebacker and Safety Prospects

This isn’t a particularly strong year for linebackers and safeties. There are no surefire stars like Derwin James last year, or even Roquan Smith. But there are players with upside, as well as some safe bets to become solid starters. A couple will likely go in the first round, but the best value will likely be found on day two once the biggest names are off the board.

Devin White, LB, LSU

In terms of pure upside there are probably only three or four players I’d take above White in this class. He is a sensational athlete, exactly what you’d design as an NFL linebacker, and with enough instincts and skill that you can’t dismiss him as just a project. He can make plays at any point on the field from sideline to sideline, and he is somehow even faster coming downhill. When he sees a lane open in front of him, he explodes into the backfield, regularly making plays two or three yards on the opposite side of the line of scrimmage.

The biggest holes in his game are mostly things that can be fixed with coaching and experience. He often plays a little too fast, charging in with his head down and not breaking down before trying to make a tackle. Every now and then he will wind up looking completely foolish trying to bring the ball carrier down, whether that’s a running back in the open field or a quarterback in the pocket. He doesn’t have much power, and while he’s fast enough to make plays simply by running around blockers, it would serve him better to take shorter paths. But he struggles to play through any contact, and once a blocker latches on to him he rarely is able to break free.

These are all development needs that I expect him to polish up as he matures into the prime of his career. And even if he doesn’t, they aren’t vital skills for a modern linebacker the way they were twenty years ago. More concerning to me are the issues he has in coverage. He certainly has the physical profile to be an excellent coverage linebacker, and most linebackers don’t develop these skills until they reach the NFL anyway. But in college he was almost never used in man coverage, and when he had to drop into a zone he looked very uncomfortable doing so. In time this may improve, but it’s a glaring hole for a player some are pegging as a top ten pick. That’s too rich for my blood, and even considering his upside I would likely wait until the second half of the first round.

Devin Bush, LB, Michigan

It’s a little bit bizarre how similar the top two linebackers in this class are. The website Mockdraftable calculates a “similarity score” based solely on measurements and testing results at the Combine. The highest similarity score in their entire database going back to 1999 for White is Bush, and the only linebacker that ranks above White for Bush is Ernie Simms. Their physical profiles line up, and their strength and weaknesses line up as well. The even have the same first name.

I have Bush ranked below White, so clearly I believe the differences that exist favor the LSU linebacker. Bush struggles just as much with contact as White, but he seems to find it much more frequently. Where White at least has some ability to elude blockers in the open field, Bush often winds up taking them head on, being knocked back a step or two as it happens. His instincts don’t seem quite up to White’s, as he often ends up taking a couple steps in the wrong direction after a fake, and he doesn’t quite have the same lethal downhill closing speed, though he is still well above average in that area.

There are ways in which Bush is better than White as well, and if a team is looking for an immediate contributor rather than potential for a long term star, I don’t think it would be absurd to prefer Bush. He has more experience in man coverage than White does, though that shouldn’t be taken to mean he’s actually good at it. He’s a bit more of a sure tackler, and there will be fewer rough patches as he adjusts his game to the NFL. He’s worth a first round pick as well, though I still would rather gamble on the upside of White.

Taylor Rapp, S, Washington

Rapp is one of the more frustrating players I had to watch this year, and one of the ones I’m least confident in my assessment of. This isn’t his fault though. It’s the fault of the coaches at Washington. For some reason their defensive scheme called for Rapp to play in a deep zone on the vast majority of his snaps, far enough off the ball that he had no impact on the play unless the offense launched the ball thirty yards over the middle of the field.

It’s perplexing, because when he was given more to do Rapp certainly showed flashes of being able to do it. He does an excellent job timing his blitzes and slicing into the backfield to make plays on the quarterback. He has good speed and excellent change of direction, skills he applies on the rare occasion he is left in man coverage. He’s a bit too slow reacting downhill and closing towards the backfield, but he is capable of landing hard, clean hits and is an excellent tackler in space. At times he looks like someone who could have been a dynamic playmaker in the slot and around the line of scrimmage, yet he was boxed into a bland role standing at the very back of the defense.

I don’t know what to make of this. On the one hand, he’ll have plenty of opportunity to show off his other skills in the NFL. On the other, the Washington coaching staff has consistently churned out NFL defensive backs like few others, and their decision to minimize Rapp’s impact probably says something about him. I still think he’s worth a late first round pick, but it’s a risk taking someone who has only shown flashes of what I would like him to be in the NFL.

Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama

There isn’t anything particularly special about Thompson. He isn’t big, and he isn’t fast. He doesn’t erase vast chunks of the field in coverage, and he doesn’t stuff people against the run. In a weak draft class I could see him being worth it at the end of the first round, but his true value is in the second round. He offers good versatility and can find a place to play on pretty much any defense, but with limited upside and a lot of holes still to fill in his game I feel comfortable saying he’ll never be anything more than an average starter.

Thompson played mostly in a deep zone in college, though he showed enough lined up both in the box and across from a slot receiver to convince me that he can fill both roles if need be. There were a few mental lapses in coverage—letting a receiver get behind him in a deep zone, getting caught watching the backfield in man-to-man—but physically he’s capable of handling himself against most tight ends and receivers over the middle of the field. There’s work to do to clean up his technique, but not so much that I think it will prove a problem in the long term.

He is just as solid-but-unspectacular against the run. He doesn’t fly downhill and make plays at the line of scrimmage, but he normally makes the correct read on when to come up in support. He isn’t an aggressive hitter, and he usually surrenders a couple extra yards after contact, or at least he does when he actually makes contact. In the box he’s a decent tackler, but on the edges he will take some poor angles and miss people in the open field. Again, this is stuff that can be fixed with time and practice at the next level. But even if it does get fixed, he will still be just an okay safety.

Johnathan Abram, S, Mississippi State

Abram is a fun player. I’m still not sure whether or not he will be a good NFL safety, but he will certainly be entertaining. He is an old school safety entering a league that is moving away from that archetype, and it remains to be seen whether he will adjust his game or find a niche in a defense that still sees value in such a player. In the past Abram would have been the perfect option to punish receivers going over the middle of the field, a hard hitter who appears to derive pleasure from laying someone out when they’re at their most exposed. But in the modern NFL that’s a quick way to give the offense fifteen yards and a free first down, and so he will have to figure out how else to use his impressive athletic gifts.

Abram plays like a madman, and I mean that will all the positive and the negative connotations. He flies all over the field with speed that just looks different from anyone else on the defense. It was actually a bit of a disappointment when he ran a 4.45 forty at the Combine, a number that would be exceptional for any of these other safeties. And once he gets a full head of steam, he’s not stopping for anything. Not for a blocker standing in his path, not for a cut by the ball carrier that leaves him flying through empty space, occasionally not even for a whistle.

To be successful in the NFL Abram is going to have to learn how to cover, and he’s going to have to learn pretty much from the ground up. He was used primarily in the box and the slot by Mississippi State, and I don’t see the patience or the discipline in him to transition to a role playing a deep zone. But to play closer to the line in the NFL he is going to have to get better in man coverage. He can make some nice plays jumping underneath routes, but his entire coverage strategy seems to be guesswork, which can lead to some ugly errors. There is potential here, but there is a lot of development work that needs done first. And for the first two or three seasons I think his only reliable contribution will be towards special teams.

Mack Wilson, LB, Alabama

Another year, another Alabama linebacker. I swear I’m just going to copy and paste this section for whoever they churn out next year, save myself the trouble of having to watch tape. A few minor quirks aside, it feels like every single one is cut out of the same mold. They’re smart, they’re physical, and even though they aren’t particularly great athletes, they know how to be where they need to be. They won’t become superstars, but they will be solid players, thudding run stoppers who are at least functional against the pass.

Take pretty much everything I said about White and Bush above, flip it, and you have a pretty good picture of who Wilson is as a player. He doesn’t have the range to make plays at the sidelines, but he is effective in the box where things get messy. He absorbs contact from blockers well and uses his hands to fight his way free, able to break away and stuff a running back in his tracks. He doesn’t have the same downhill burst as the two above, but he almost always makes the correct decision, usually after hesitating to make sure he is reading the play correctly.

Wilson is the opposite of the other linebackers, and the other linebackers are exactly what the modern NFL is built for. So I wouldn’t bother taking Wilson until the second or third round. I am somewhat intrigued by his coverage skills, and that might convince me to take a chance on him. He doesn’t have the physical tools to keep up with most running backs or tight ends in man coverage, but he has excellent instincts in zone. He gets good depth on his drops and will adjust his angles on the fly as he reads the route combinations in front of him. His ball skills are excellent, and if a defense can find a way to keep him out of disadvantageous matchups, he has the potential to be a useful cog in the middle of the field.

Nasir Adderley, S, Delaware

Adderley is small for an NFL safety, and he isn’t particularly athletic either. Even against the lower competition he faced at Delaware, he rarely appeared to be faster than most of the other players on the field. His long speed isn’t great, and he didn’t cover a lot of ground against either the run or the pass. To his credit he does appear to have pretty good first step burst when he makes up his mind and fires downhill. However, it usually takes him an extra beat to read and react to the play unfolding in front of him, negating whatever advantage this small explosion provides.

Adderley has a lot of experience playing in zone coverages at every given point of the field. Deep middle, intermediate middle, along the sidelines, in the flats. He’s up and down with these responsibilities, but in general he seems to be comfortable with what he’s asked to do. He has some understanding of adjusting his zones as he reads the development of the opposing receivers’ routes, but he doesn’t always choose correctly with this. When he does however, he can put himself in excellent position to use his burst to make a play on the ball. He can be outmuscled at the catch point, but he attacks aggressively while the ball is in the air.

It will be a big jump for Adderley to move from Delaware to the NFL. Everyone he faces will be bigger than him, and most will likely be faster as well. He still has a lot of work to do learning to read plays, especially when it comes to not biting on fakes, and it’s only going to become more difficult down the road. As a project, he’s probably worth an early pick on Day 3 of the draft. I probably wouldn’t even consider him before then.