2019 Running Back Prospects

Every year we find ourselves having the same conversation about how much we can truly value running backs in the draft, and it’s become even more pressing after last year when the Giants passed up several quarterback prospects for Saquon Barkley. I thought that was a mistake at the time, and it’s even more glaring now, even after Barkley had an excellent rookie season.

Running backs are great investments for teams that want immediate impact, but their short career lengths make them hard to build around long term. Smart teams will do like the Patriots did last year, grabbing Sony Michel at the back end of the first round to add to an already established roster. Dumb teams will do like the Giants last year and the Jaguars in 2017, picking a running back high and trying to make him the focal point of an otherwise moribund offense.

Fortunately this year no one will make that mistake, because the talent simply isn’t there. There are no running backs worth even being considered in the top ten, and likely not in the first round either. That doesn’t mean there won’t be impact players that come out of this draft. It just means that there are no sure things, and even the safest prospects have limited upside for what they can contribute to an NFL offense.

Josh Jacobs, Alabama

Jacobs isn’t going to be a star, and he isn’t worth a first round pick. He’s a good athlete but not a great one, not on the level of the elite prospects that have come through the past few years. In a league where every running back has to be a receiver as well, he is very raw in that area, used primarily on screens and shovel passes. I think he can develop that part of his game, and he shows moments of good ball skills, but he will likely have to come along slowly as part of a running back committee for his first couple years in the league.

But in terms of pure ability in this year’s draft, he is the best and safest option. He has a good combination of size and speed, with the ability to both run away from defenders and to run them over. His top speed isn’t elite, but he reaches it very quickly when he plants his foot and drives downhill. He doesn’t dance unnecessarily, and he is willing to fight between the tackles for whatever yards are available. He is especially good at absorbing contact in his lower body without losing his balance, and at finding a way to fall forward even when he takes contact head on.

After a year or two to adjust to a more complete NFL role, Jacobs will be a solid feature running back. If he can really take a step forward as a receiver he can possibly be more than that, but I don’t see the ability to be an elite contributor as just a ball carrier. He only occasionally makes defenders miss tackles altogether, and he doesn’t run away from defenses with home run ability. He’s the sort of player any team would love to have on their roster, but not someone you would ever think of building an offense around.

Devin Singletary, Florida Atlantic

Singletary has a similar problem to Jacobs of being a liability in the passing game. He was almost never used as a receiver in college, and when he was kept in as a pass protector he got pretty consistently pushed around by whoever he was trying to pick up. I don’t think he has the same development potential in this area as Jacobs, but I think he can at least become functional coming out of the backfield, which is more or less essential for a running back these days.

As a pure runner there is no one in the class more fun to watch than Singletary. He possesses what I believe is the most important skill for a running back to have: the ability to make every single tackle as difficult as possible. He sits low to the ground and seems to be made of rubber, bouncing off every little bit of contact and keeping trundling forward. He makes sharp cuts in tight areas that make it almost impossible to get a direct hit on him, and he seems to make the most of every run between the tackles. While he can occasionally get into trouble dancing in the backfield, he generally has very good instincts about where people are around him and how he has to contort himself to get past them and keep moving down the field.

It was close for who I liked more on tape between Singletary and Jacobs, but Singletary’s performance at the Combine made it impossible to rank him as the top back in this class. He did okay on both of the jump tests, but in every other measurement of size or athleticism he finished in the bottom twenty percent of all running backs. He didn’t look like a great athlete on the field, but he looked better than this, though that was potentially a product of the competition he faced at Florida Athletic. I don’t think this is enough to drop him past the end of round two, but I think it’s a very clear red flag, a risk that he simply won’t be able to cut it when being chased by NFL athletes.

Darrell Henderson, Memphis

Henderson is the most explosive back in this year’s class. Get him to the second level, and he has the speed to pull away from pursuing defenders and take the ball all the way to the endzone. He doesn’t make people miss in tight spaces the way Singletary does, but in the open field he is shifty enough to turn space into missed tackles, and to turn missed tackles into 60 yard runs.

It’s the part of the field before he gets to the second level that can cause issues for Henderson. While his top speed is sensational, the burst off his first couple steps isn’t anything special. It takes him a while to get up to full speed, and until he does so he is easy to bring down. He can finish plays with good power with a running start, but he doesn’t have the leg drive to gain extra yards when corralled around the line of scrimmage. His vision isn’t great, and his balance is nothing special either. He’s a one cut back who either hits the home run or goes down for a minimal gain.

Some of this can be fixed with coaching and development, but a lot of this is just who he is. But his game breaking ability is a rare enough gift, and a good offense will find a way to take advantage of this. He wasn’t used frequently as a receiver in college, but he has decent enough skills there, and if teams can do more to get him the ball in space, he can reward them with big plays. I don’t know if he’ll ever be a feature running back, but as a change of pace he can be lethal, and he’d be a good addition in the third or fourth round.

David Montgomery, Iowa State

Montgomery is another option for a team that wants a low ceiling but reliable option at running back. He’s a bigger back, but he isn’t physically overwhelming, able to break a tackle every now and then but not consistently bowling over defenders. His top end speed isn’t great, but he has enough burst to bounce to the edge when it’s available. His best use is between the tackles however, preferably in a zone scheme that will allow him to read the play and make a single sharp cut towards the backside as he rumbles downhill for four or five yards.

Montgomery shows good patience and vision as a runner, though there are times he could probably do a little better just hitting the hole downhill rather than waiting for something more to open up. He can make people miss with sharp jump cuts, but once he stops his forward momentum he’s basically dead in the water. He takes too many hits square on, and he doesn’t fall forward for extra yards on every single run.

Still, he’s a well rounded back who will be able to slide easily into an NFL offense. He’s decent as a receiver and excellent in pass protection, and he can be comfortable in any role from a cog in a committee to a feature back absorbing fifteen to twenty carries a game. He’s not going to create a lot more than what is available for him, and he isn’t going to provide big burst plays down the field, but with a good offensive line and in the right scheme, he can be a productive NFL running back.

Damien Harris, Alabama

You may have noticed it’s become a bit of a trend among the running backs this year for me to say they aren’t particularly great receivers. Well by the standards of past years Harris isn’t exceptional in that area either, but of the backs I studied in this year’s class he is clearly the best of the bunch. He’s a capable enough route runner out of the backfield, with reliable hands and plenty of experience transitioning from a receiver to a runner. And it’s a good thing he is too, because as a pass protector he’s about as effective as a strong gust of wind.

There are a lot of things to critique with Harris’s game as a runner. He doesn’t have breakaway speed or devastating power. His balance is poor, and pretty much any contact can bring him down. He’s decent at finding holes on the interior, but he seems hesitant to bounce to the outside even when there is a lane available for him to take. He’d rather muddle in traffic for a safe two or three yard gain than try to make a cut at the line to break one for five or more yards.

Still, in a rather bland running back class his comfort as a receiver makes him one of the more appetizing options. He’s not going to be an every down back, but there are very few of those available this year. And as a change of pace he at least gives your offense plenty of options with how to use him, which is more than can be said about the next couple of players. So if a team wanted to take him in the fourth round, I don’t think that would be a complete waste.

Mike Weber, Ohio State

Who Weber is and who he could be are two very different questions. In college he was fairly unremarkable, a straight ahead runner who could fall forward through tacklers and occasionally break free for a solid intermediate gain. He was versatile enough to line up in multiple different places on the offense, and to work as a receiver out of the backfield. But nothing he did was flashy or particularly impressive, and on tape I didn’t see anything to indicate he could be a lead back in the NFL.

I still think that is the case, which is why I wouldn’t take him before the fifth round. But there is enough about him that intrigues me to make him worth a risk above the player listed below him here. Though he never looked particularly fast on the field, a 4.47 forty yard dash suggests he does have some decent burst that, for whatever reason, didn’t show up when he put on pads. Overall he had an impressive Combine, and it makes me curious about what other skills he might be hiding. Maybe he will be more effective as a receiver with a quarterback who gets deeper into his progression. Maybe he’ll be a better running back when he’s not going out of shotgun from every play. Maybe he can become more in the NFL than he ever was in college.

Still, I wouldn’t bet on him becoming more than a journeyman backup at the next level. He looks slow and plodding when he tried to make cuts in the open field, and in three games watching him I’m not sure if he ever actually made someone miss completely. He has good power to drive through contact, but he never really breaks away from tackles, instead just falling forward for an extra yard or two. The traits he has aren’t all that impressive, and truth be told the fifth round may still be a little rich for him

Elijah Holyfield, Georgia

There must be something in the water in Georgia, because pretty much every single Bulldog had a brutal performance at the Combine. Cornerback DeAndre Baker and tight end Isaac Nauta got things off to a bad start, and then Elijah Holyfield sealed the deal with an abysmal 4.78 forty. His game isn’t built around speed, but that’s the sort of number that has to raise concerns, well below whatever threshold teams use when evaluating prospects. It’s the sort of number that makes you wonder if Holyfield can even stay on a field with NFL athletes, despite finding moderate success facing them regularly during his time at Georgia.

Holyfield’s saving grace, and what ultimately makes him worth a late round selection, is his power. He is a pure downhill runner, charging with momentum that carries him through would-be tacklers often as if they aren’t even there. He takes a lot of hits square on, but it often doesn’t matter, as he almost always finds a way to finish forward. He has the pure leg drive to be an impact player in short yardage, and decent enough vision and quickness when it comes to making a single jump cut in the hole.

But there’s only so much value that someone with this limited skillset can provide. He’s a decent pass protector, but he offers nothing as a receiver. Occasionally he can make it to the edge, though that might prove tougher against faster NFL linebackers. He brings no semblance of the big play threat that makes players like Henderson interesting. In short, he’s just a decent rotation piece at running back. Useful for five to ten carries a game, but a liability if you ever try to use him for more than that.