Wednesday, April 25, 2018

2018 Mock Draft: Predicting the Future


Image result for sam darnold
Yesterday I ran through a mock draft if every pick was made based on what I think of the prospects available. However, and this may come as a surprise, not everyone agrees with my opinions. So today I’ll walk through a mock draft of what I think will actually happen. Once again I’m not going to be predicting any trades, but I’ll mention some that make sense.

And if you’re curious, here are links to my breakdowns for the prospects available in this draft.

Cornerback
Wide Receiver and Tight EndRuning Back
Linebacker and Safety
Defensive Interior
Offensive Line
Edge 


1.     Cleveland Browns – Sam Darnold, QB, USC
This is the first year in a while with real uncertainty about who will be the first player selected. I’m confident saying that the Browns are going to take a quarterback, but I think there’s a reasonable chance that they select Josh Allen, and I’ve even been hearing rumors that they like Baker Mayfield. (They haven’t been linked to either of my top two quarterbacks, because they're the Browns). But in the end I think they will stick with the quarterback that's been the favorite throughout the process.

2.     New York Giants – Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
If the Browns do pass on Darnold, it sounds very likely that he will end up as a Giant. But it also seems like Darnold is the only quarterback the Giants are interested in, and with him off the board they’ll take their pick of the non-quarterback options. Trading down is certainly an option too, but all indications are that they believe they can get a superstar at this position. Barkley definitely has the physical ability to be that player, even if I have a lot of skepticism about how his game will translate to the NFL.

3.     New York Jets – Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
The Jets are taking a quarterback. They gave up an insane three second round picks to jump up three slots, and there’s no scenario in which they can justify going after any other position. The smart move would be to take Josh Rosen, but that seems like the third most likely scenario. They will consider Allen as well, but the strongest signs point to them being in love with Mayfield.

4.     Cleveland Browns – Bradley Chubb, EDGE, NC State
This is the first spot where I think we could see a trade, though I would still bet on the Browns holding their ground. They would love to get Barkley, but with him gone they’ll double up on talented pass rushers. The combination of Chubb and last year’s top overall selection Myles Garrett gives them a strong foundation at the most important position on defense to go along with their potential star quarterback.

5.     Denver Broncos – Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
If Denver goes with a quarterback, I think Allen is the way they go. A trade is definitely possible (the Bills will be very nervous by this point in the draft), but if they stay where they are I think it comes down to Allen versus Quenton Nelson. They spent a first round selection on their offensive line a year ago, and they still need help there, but the pressure on John Elway and Vance Joseph makes me think they will go for a splash in this year’s draft.

6.     Indianapolis Colts – Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame
This is a pick the Colts will sprint to the podium to make. Nelson will immediately elevate their offense in both the run and the pass game, and after losing an entire season of Andrew Luck protecting him has to be their top priority. If Nelson isn’t available, they will likely look to the defensive side of the ball, going after someone like Roquan Smith or Derwin James.

7.     Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Derwin James, S, Florida State
There are a lot of ways Tampa Bay could go with this pick, and they’re all on the defensive side of the ball. They could use a cornerback like Denzel Ward, a linebacker like Smith, or a pass rusher like Harold Landry. But I think their best bet will be to stay local and grab a player who can play a variety of different positions, a high upside athlete who could turn into a superstar in a couple years.

8.     Chicago Bears – Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech
The Bears have built a solid foundation on defense, and now they have the flexibility to take a flyer on a high risk/reward player. Edmunds is a sensational athlete who can occupy the space in the middle of this defense, with the potential to become the next in the line of Butkus-Singletary-Urlacher to lead the Bears on that side of the ball.

9.     San Francisco 49ers – Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia
Things are looking complicated for last year’s first round selection Reuben Foster as he faces off the field issues that could end his time with the 49ers. If they are forced to move on from him, that leaves a massive gap at the most important position on this defense. Smith is a player with many of the same skills as Foster, a fantastic athlete who can contribute in both pass coverage and as a blitzer.

10.  Oakland Raiders – Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame
Oakland’s offense fell apart a year ago as their offensive line slipped from total dominance to mere excellence. Derek Carr is a good quarterback, but he consistently melts down under pressure. The Raiders need to ensure that their offensive line is solid in front of him, and that means reaching for the most NFL ready tackle in the draft.

11.  Miami Dolphins – Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State
A year ago Ward’s teammate Marshon Lattimore went off the board eleventh overall, and he completely turned around the Saints defense. Ward isn’t the same caliber of player, but he has the skills to be an immediate starter for a Dolphins defense that has spent years looking for a solution on the outside. I’m not entirely sure what the Dolphins are doing right now, and I could see them going in a lot of different directions with this pick. But Ward seems like the best combination of talent and need available.

12.  Buffalo Bills – Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
Obviously the Bills aren’t just going to sit and wait for a quarterback to drop to them. They are going to be on the phone with every team drafting ahead of them, and I expect they will find someone willing to deal. I don’t think Rosen will be their top choice, but they may have to settle for him if three go in the top five as I expect. I’m guessing they would most likely rather have Allen, and they will be holding their breath to see if Denver will let him slide.

13.  Washington Redskins – Vita Vea, DT, Washington
This is a pick based on what I’ve read from writers I trust, and it’s not one I really understand. The Redskins spent a first round pick on the defensive interior a year ago, and even though Vea is a very different player from Jonathan Allen this doesn’t seem like the best use of their resources. But Vea is a talented athlete, and if it works out this pairing could spend the next five years wrecking the interiors of opposing offensive lines.

14.  Green Bay Packers – Marcus Davenport, EDGE, UTSA
Green Bay could use help at almost every position, and I’m not sure if there is a non-QB player who would surprise me here. Either Josh Jackson or Minkah Fitzpatrick would fit well in their secondary, while Vea would be useful up front if the Redskins pass on him. But I’ll give them one of the more intriguing players in the draft, a raw athlete who dominated against mediocre competition. It may take some time for Davenport to adjust to the NFL, but he has the talent to be the heir apparent to Clay Matthews as he continues to trend downward.

15.  Arizona Cardinals – Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
Jackson is going to go higher than many people think. He’s the sort of player that a couple front offices will absolutely fall in love with, and even if 28 teams aren’t interested the other four are enough to start a bidding war. The Cardinals seem like a team that would definitely be intrigued by Jackson’s ability (as evidenced by former coach Bruce Arian’s comments about him), and this would be an excellent fit for the most exciting player in the draft.

16.  Baltimore Ravens – Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
The Ravens love players from Alabama, and despite them going aggressively after every wide receiver available in free agency that remains a glaring hole on their offense. Ridley will provide them with a down the field threat they had hoped to get from Breshad Perriman, though it remains to be seen if they have the quarterback and the offensive line to attack with a vertical passing game.

17.  Los Angeles Chargers – Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama
Payne is a player who keeps popping up in first round conversations, and I really don't understand why. At times he can get good penetration into the backfield, but he doesn't ever make plays once he's back there. Still, this could be useful for a Chargers team that excels at disrupting off the edge, shoring up their middle and making life easier for Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.

18.  Seattle Seahawks – Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa
There may not be a better fit of talent, scheme, and need in the draft. Seattle’s defense is entering a bit of a rebuilding phase, with star cornerback Richard Sherman off in San Francisco. They need fresh blood on the outside to continue to play their unique press Cover-3 hybrid, and Jackson is exactly the type of cornerback they’re looking for. He isn’t as big or as physical as Sherman, but he has the downhill closing speed and ball skills to fill the same role as they try to keep their defense rolling through its loss of talent.

19.  Dallas Cowboys – Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama
Fitzpatrick was once in the conversation as a top five pick, but he has slid through the draft process as questions have popped up about his athletic ability and ceiling. But he is a highly intelligent and instinctive player who can contribute immediately in a wide variety of roles. If he is available at this point Dallas will be happy to have him to plug in as a versatile attacker and long term leader on their still shaky defense.

20.  Detroit Lions – Sony Michel, RB, Georgia
It’s a bit laughable just how bad Detroit’s running backs have been in recent years, and I think that’s the most likely position for them to address with this pick. For a while I would have gone with the more physical Derrius Guice out of LSU, but there are reports that teams have concerns about his maturity and coachability. Michel has risen as the draft process has gone along, and he’s a name that could surprise some people by going higher than they expect.

21.  Cincinnati Bengals – Harold Landry, EDGE, Boston College
This isn’t the biggest need after getting a productive rookie season from Carl Lawson, but the Bengals are historically a team that drafts more on talent than need. Landry’s speed up the field is a rare gift, and they can find a role for two explosive young pass rushers. If they don't go after Landry, I could see this as a spot for an offensive lineman or a wide receiver to come off the board.

22.  Buffalo Bills – Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA
The Bills lost Richie Incognito to retirement and traded away Cordy Glenn to move up for a chance at a quarterback. They desperately need help on the offensive line, and Miller is one of the hot rising prospects of this class. I haven’t had a chance to study him yet, but by all indications he is one of the most physically gifted offensive linemen available this year, even if these gifts haven’t yet translated to consistent blocking success.

23.  New England Patriots – Josh Reid, S, Stanford
Reid seems like the perfect Patriots prospect. He isn’t a traditional safety prospect, but he can be a very effective player put into the right role on a defense. He can fill holes on the back end as New England’s starting safeties age, or he can bounce inside as a cornerback matching up against slot receivers. Bill Belichick loves versatility, and Reid is one of the most versatile players in the draft.

24.  Carolina Panthers – Will Hernandez, OG, UTEP
The Panthers always seem to surprise me with the direction they go. They’re a team that seems to prefer stacking up talent at a specific position, spending high draft picks in recent years on a linebacker and a defensive tackle despite appearing set at this position. I don’t know what to expect from them this year, but I do know they lost one of their best offensive players in Andrew Norwell. Their offensive line was shaky even before he left, and they need someone to stabilize the middle. Hernandez is big and athletic, and he fits the power rushing attack the Panthers have cultivated over the past few years.

25.  Tennessee Titans – Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State
Tennessee has quietly had a very good offseason, adding useful veterans Malcolm Butler and Dion Lewis in positions of need. They’ve patched up a lot of the holes on their roster, but they still have some issues to address. I would probably point myself first at wide receiver, but after spending a top five pick on Corey Davis last year I doubt they want to invest another first round selection. So instead they’ll try to fill the gap in the middle of their defense. Vander Esch put up great numbers at the Combine, and even though this athleticism doesn’t show up on film, he brings some intriguing potential late in the first round.

26.  Atlanta Falcons – Taven Bryan, DT, Florida
There are a lot of signs suggesting that the Falcons want to beef up the middle of their defense, and over the past couple drafts they have prioritized raw athletes over fully developed players. Bryan fits both these criteria perfectly. He is insanely explosive off the ball, able to appear in the backfield sometimes before the lineman across from him has even left his stance. There’s not much more to his game right now besides this initial burst, but that’s the sort of starting point that could develop into one of the most dangerous interior defenders in the league.

27.  New Orleans Saints – Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State
I don’t think Gesicki is a first round talent, but someone is going to fall in love with his athletic ability. It would be a good fit on both sides of the equation for the Saints to make this move. Gesicki is a similar player to their former star Jimmy Graham, a dominant down the field athlete who is more of a wide receiver than a true tight end. They need a down the field threat to complement the more technical game of Michael Thomas, and Gesicki could add an explosive element to an offense that was missing it last year.

28.  Pittsburgh Steelers – Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama
Ryan Shazier isn’t going to be available in 2018, and he may never make it back. Linebacker was already a weakness for the Steelers, and losing one of their best defensive players from the position is a blow that will be difficult to absorb. Evans is a very different player from Shazier, but he would fit in well in Pittsburgh’s defense, combining devastating hits with menace as a blitzer to give them some hint of a spark at that position.

29.  Jacksonville Jaguars – DJ Moore, WR, Maryland
This was one of the hardest positions to fill. I ended up going with a wide receiver, but I don’t feel great about it. Even after making Norwell the highest paid guard in football I could still see them addressing their offensive line, and I could also see a tight end. This would be a good spot for someone to trade up to try to grab a quarterback before the end of the first round. But if the Jaguars stay here, I think they’ll try to replace some of what they lost with Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns leaving this offseason. Moore has enough upside that I think he’ll sneak into the first round, even if there are several more NFL ready receivers left on the board.

30.  Minnesota Vikings – Isaiah Wynn, OG, Georgia
Minnesota needs to draft someone who can contribute right away, and they need to target a specific need on their team. More depth on the defensive line or in the secondary is definitely a possibility, and I could see someone like Maurice Hurst or Jaire Alexander sliding into this spot. But the most pressing need is once again along the offensive line. Wynn’s short frame will likely consign him to guard for most of his career, but he has the flexibility to play four different positions on the line, and the Vikings will hope to slide him in as a starter right away as they make another push for a Super Bowl title.

31.  New England Patriots – Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State
Five quarterbacks are absolutely going to go in the first round this year, and I wouldn’t be stunned to see Rudolph make it six. The Patriots are once again looking for a backup/heir apparent for Tom Brady, and if they don’t trade up to go after someone like Jackson or Rosen, Rudolph is the best option they’re going to get. They could also trade down with a team who missed out on a quarterback in the early run and wants to make sure they come away with something at that position.

32.  Philadelphia Eagles – Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville
There aren’t many holes on Philadelphia’s roster, but they could still use some help at cornerback. There are health concerns that could knock Alexander out of the first round, but if he can stay on the field he has the ability to contribute either as an outside cornerback or in the slot. Adding another lockdown cornerback would make this defense a nightmare to go against and get Philadelphia one step closer to repeating last year’s success.

No comments:

Post a Comment