2018 Draft Prospects: Cornerbacks

The NFL Draft is now officially one month away. For you the excitement may just be beginning, but for me the draft has taken up a huge chunk of my free time for the past month and a half. As I’ve done the past few years, I chose roughly sixty of the top prospects to look at this year, watching three games of each in order to form my opinions of the players likely to go in the first round of the draft.

As I’ve done in the past, I will be ranking each of these players within their position groups, starting today with the cornerbacks. The players below are listed in the order I would select them, accompanied by summaries of their strengths, weaknesses, and potential. I factor in both film and athletic numbers for these rankings, and I am generally a big fan of athletic upside when it comes to the draft.

There’s one more thing I would like to call attention to before I dive in. For most of the players I will try to give some sense of where they deserve to go in the draft, whether that’s a top five selection, a mid-second round prospect, or the latter stages of the first round. A key thing to keep in mind when you see this is that these descriptions are based not just on this year’s draft class but on every class I have studied. This is a particularly weak year at the top of the draft, and I don’t believe there are ten worthy top ten caliber players, or twenty top twenty, or thirty-two first rounders. So keep that in mind when the time rolls around for me to post my mock draft, when I’ll have no choice but to select players higher than they truly deserve to go.

And now, without further ado, the first position group of my 2018 Draft breakdown: the cornerbacks.

Denzel Ward, Ohio State

There are a lot of things to like about Ward’s game. His athleticism is immediately evident, both on the field and in workouts. At the Combine he ran a 4.32 forty and put up 39 inches on the vertical, speed and explosiveness that translate to tracking receivers over the field. He doesn’t allow himself to get beaten over the top, and he closes hard on underneath routes. He allows a few more catches than you’d like to see, and he could be even better if he put on some strength to play with physicality at the catch point. But even when the ball beats him there he is almost always immediately on the receiver to make the tackle, eliminating any yards after the catch.

Ward didn’t do any of the agility tests at the Combine, but if he had he likely would have excelled there as well. His balance is excellent, and he mirrors receivers with precision off the snap. He has experience playing both on the outside and in the slot, and there will be a role for him on any team immediately in the NFL. He can play in zone, but he’s at his best in man to man, tracking receivers through congested patches of field and matching them stride for stride and cut for cut.

All that said, there are very clear holes in Ward’s game, holes that I don’t think he is every likely to fill. He doesn’t have the elite size that has become popular in recent years in the NFL, and he doesn’t challenge receivers physically on their routes. He never gets his head around to find the ball, and good receivers can make catches against him even when they’re covered.

Ward is the best cornerback in the draft, but that’s as much about the class as it is about him. He isn’t at the same level as someone like Jalen Ramsey or Marshon Lattimore that we’ve seen come out over the past couple years, and I don’t see him ever becoming more than an above average starter in the NFL. There’s definitely value for him, but I’m not sure I see him as a top 20 player.

Mike Hughes, UCF

Hughes doesn’t boast the remarkable athleticism of Ward, but he brings a similar level of polish. He is light on his feet and extremely flexible, and there is never a moment where he looks truly out of control in coverage. When a receiver tries to blow past him over the top, he is able to flip his hips without any wasted motion, keeping stride for stride with all but the fastest receivers down the field. He uses the sideline as a tool to hem in receivers, and he sticks with men crossing the middle so he’s in position to break in front of them and knock away the pass.

Hughes is sound in coverage, but the issues present themselves either at the line or at the point of the catch. He can get pushed around physically when he tries to challenge the release of receivers, and if he gets knocked off balance he doesn’t have the speed necessary to recover. Wary about being beaten over the top, he will give some passes up underneath, and he doesn’t have the same closing speed that makes Ward so effective. He’s a poor tackler—but to his credit, a willing one—and it’s easy to imagine a team baiting him underneath until they can break one for a longer play.

The athletic limitations will restrict Hughes’s ceiling, but I have no doubt he’ll be a quality starting cornerback in the league. He shows a good understanding of route design and combinations, and he can comfortably slide right away into any scheme. He’s a good pickup late in the first round, for a team that wants a ready to contribute piece and is okay sacrificing a little long term upside.

Josh Jackson, Iowa

Over the past couple years some of the best cornerbacks in the NFL have been players who converted from wide receiver during their time in college. Richard Sherman and Xavier Rhodes are big, physical players who attack the ball in the air as if they believe it’s theirs. Jackson isn’t quite in that some mold physically, but he has a similar background as a wide receiver, and it shows up in his aggressiveness and ability to make plays to take the ball away from the offense.

There is a lot of upside with Jackson, but there is a lot of downside too. He is still incredibly raw in coverage, and it shows up when he is asked to play tight at the line. He opens his hips far too early on vertical releases, and he doesn’t have elite closing speed to stop underneath routes. And he lets receivers cross his face with no real contest, often turning the wrong way and giving the offense an easy completion over the middle of the field.

It is going to take some time for Jackson to harness his potential, but he can still contribute as he develops. He will be beaten regularly over his first couple years, but he can also turn the game around with a timely interception. He is always looking to jump an underneath route in zone, and when he’s matched up man to man he is able to make freakishly athletic plays to steal the ball out of the air. And with an excellent performance at the Combine (aside from a 4.56 forty that doesn’t reflect his speed on the field), he showed that he has the ability to develop into the best cornerback in the class, even if it comes with risks that would make me wary about picking him before the end of the first round.

Carlton Davis, Auburn

Davis is either a coach’s dream cornerback or their worst nightmare, depending on what they want out of the position. If they’re looking for someone to match receivers step for step and track them across the field, Davis isn’t their guy. He isn’t particularly nimble, and he will struggle his entire career with smaller, quicker receivers. There is no way he can play in the slot, and quarterbacks with good timing on back shoulder throws will be able to eat him alive underneath if he can’t disrupt the route. He doesn’t stop well, and his closing speed is subpar, meaning any separation the receiver can generate is likely to result in a catch.

But if a coach is looking for someone to get physical with receivers on the outside and disrupt the entire timing of an offense, Davis may be the best I’ve seen in five years of doing this. He routinely makes wide receivers look like they’re made of paper, stacking them up at the line and preventing them from ever getting into their routes. He is insanely strong and uses his long arms to their full advantage, at times straight up shoving receivers out of bounds to erase them from the play.

Obviously a player this physical will need some time to adjust to the NFL’s more stringent rules. He also needs to get better at finding the ball in the air and making a play on it as it arrives. But he has the skills to grow in this last area, with long arms and good recognition of when a receiver is going for the catch. He is also physical enough that at times receivers can’t even gather their balance enough to make a play on the ball.

Davis needs to go to a team that will use him properly, and give him time to adjust to his new situation. A bunch of teams shouldn’t even consider selecting him, not when there are similarly talented and better suited players on the board. But for a handful of other teams he may be exactly what they’re looking for, a bargain to be found early in the second round.

Isaiah Oliver, Colorado

There are a lot of pieces that go into playing cornerback, but very often it comes down to what a player does at the point of the catch. Excellent coverage can be erased by failing to knock the ball out of the air, while long arms and well timed leaps can make a bad play look great. Oliver is a player who often falls into the latter category. He can be beaten in coverage, but he has the ability to make plays to erase these mistakes.

Speed is one issue that Oliver regularly faces. He ran only 4.5 in the forty yard dash, and this shortcoming shows up on the field, where he struggles at times to get his hips flipped around and can be outrun over the top. He doesn’t explode downhill in the way the best cornerbacks do, though he has good anticipation and understanding of route concepts to make up for this, often making his break before the ball is even thrown. He’s an extremely smart cornerback, and he is rarely beaten by double moves.

At the point of the catch is where he excels, though he has some work to clean up there as well. He can get too physical with receivers, and he will draw some flags simply due to body to body contact. But he’ll avoid other penalties by consistently getting his head around and finding the ball, and more often than not making plays to knock it out of the air. With some refinement and in the right scheme he can become a well above average cornerback, even if he doesn’t have the skills to consistently lock down an opposing receiver.

Jaire Alexander, Louisville

Alexander is another that you will either love or hate depending on what you want from a cornerback. In fact the order I’ve placed the last three likely says more about my preferences for the  position than it does about the players themselves. Davis, Oliver, and Alexander all belong somewhere in the early second round, and whichever is taken first is ultimately a reflection of what the drafting team wants from the position, not the talent of the player.

Alexander is in a lot of ways the opposite player of Davis. He’s small, but he is incredibly quick, able to match the breaks of the opposing receivers as quickly as they make them. He impressed at the Combine with a 4.38 forty, but that speed doesn’t always show up on the field, where he is vulnerable to being beaten over the top. He can occasionally get physical with receivers, but mostly this is just to knock them off their route for a step or two, before they recover and move on.

Alexander is a bit undersized at only 5-10 with short arms, and it’s possible to complete passes over the top of him. He doesn’t time his jumps particularly well, though he does a good job playing around receivers to swat away passes over the middle of the field. He plays with too much aggression and can be badly burned by double moves, something that I’m not sure even coaching will fix at the next level. A very mixed bag as a player, the upside is undoubtedly there, but there are clear limitations and questions that prevent him from joining the top prospects in this class.