2018 Draft Prospects: Linebackers and Safeties

NFL defenses have become more complex and more versatile over the past five years, and in a lot of circumstances the roles of safety and linebacker have blurred together. Versatility is the most crucial skill looked for at both positions, and there are a number of prospects this year that perfectly straddle the line between positions. So I decided it made sense to group the two together in my rankings to give a sense of where these players stack up against each other.

Derwin James, S – Florida State

The safety position has become one of the hardest to evaluate in recent years because it isn’t really one position. Pretty much every team asks the same thing of their edge rushers, or their cornerbacks, or their linebackers. Safeties are the players who fill in the gaps. Sometimes that means sitting back in the deep middle. Sometimes that means walking up as an extra linebacker in the box. And increasingly that means crawling up to the line to play as an extra cornerback in man coverage against a slot receiver.

It is very rare to find a player like James who can do literally anything you ask of a safety on the field. He has the speed to erase the deep part of the field, the quickness to keep up in coverage, and the size to walk up and play tough against the run. His Combine validated everything shown on film as a versatile weapon that can slot in just about anywhere for a defense.

There are holes that have to be filled in James’s game, which keep him from climbing into the upper echelon of prospects I’ve scouted. While showing flashes of truly special mobility, he can also get a little clumsy trying to turn and track receivers. He needs to get better at challenging blockers physically if he is going to be a force against the run, and most of all he needs to show more consistent effort in playing aggressively downhill and pursuing plays he should be able to chase down.

But if you’re talking about potential, there may not be a player in the draft with a higher ceiling than James. His closing speed is phenomenal, and his long arms and ball skills shut down windows at every level in the passing game. He’s an excellent tackler in space, and in the right scheme he can become a devastating blitzer. His biggest flaws are all correctible, and at 21 years old with a year of college missed due to injury, it isn’t a surprise that he’s not a complete prospect. He’s definitely a top ten caliber player, and in a year with this little star power he should go even higher.

Roquan Smith, LB – Georgia

In an earlier time a player with Smith’s size and speed likely would have been listed as a safety rather than a linebacker. He flies all over the field, covering ground to make plays from sideline to sideline with speed that ruins angles for ball carriers. He’s able to scrape sideways and then explode upfield in an instant, shooting through gaps to make splash plays in the backfield. He’s a smart player as well, almost always making the correct decisions and rarely chasing fakes away from the play.

But size is an issue for Smith, especially when he plays in the box. As long as he keeps himself free he is a lethal weapon, but the moment a blocker engages with him the play is essentially over. The first punch from an offensive lineman sends him reeling a couple yards backwards, and he does nothing to break away once he’s engaged. Even if the ball carrier comes directly to him he struggles to shed and fall sideways to make the play. Tackling isn’t his strongest suit either, as he ends up flat footed too often in the open field and misses plays he should be expected to make. He doesn’t play particularly strong as a tackler either, absorbing too much contact with his chest and falling backwards to give up a couple extra yards.

Part of me wonders if Smith may be miscast as a linebacker in the NFL. He can certainly play that position, but I think his ceiling will be limited if he plays the majority of his snaps in the box. He might be better suited playing a similar role as James, lining up as a safety/linebacker/cornerback hybrid over the slot receiver. Smith is excellent in coverage, able to track receivers and tight ends deep down the field in man coverage. His ball skills could use some work, but he has the ability to develop into a game changing force at that position.

Smith’s ceiling is as high as any player’s in the draft, but I have enough worries about him reaching it to drop him to the fringe of the top ten. He is a unique player, and unique players aren’t always a good thing in the NFL. It will take some time for him to find a proper role for himself, and if that doesn’t happen he may never live up to his draft billing.

Rashaan Evans, LB – Alabama

There are few things more reliable in the draft than Alabama turning out a high profile linebacker. These players almost all fit a similar mold, and for the most part Evans slides into the same category. He doesn’t have great size, but he delivers hits like he’s 20 pounds heavier, doing an excellent job making square contact and stopping a ball carrier in his tracks. He does a good job working through traffic and handling blockers, engaging and shedding in a smooth motion to break free and make a tackle. He doesn’t always read plays right, but he is usually good about being where he’s supposed to be and making the play he’s supposed to make.

I’ve had very mixed feelings about the other Alabama linebackers that have crossed my path, and in some ways Evans falls into the exact same traps. He doesn’t have great speed working laterally, and there are plays out to the sideline that he simply can’t make. He isn’t necessarily a liability in coverage, but it is far from a strength of his. In a lot of ways he’s the sort of linebacker that’s been fading in value in the NFL, and that (along with his subpar athletic testing numbers) does leave me worried about his future.

There is something that mitigates a lot of this, something that leaves me equal parts intrigued and confused by Evans. Coverage wasn’t his strongest suit in college, but in a lot of passing situations he wasn’t asked to drop back with a tight end or a slot receiver. On most third downs he lined up on the edge of the defensive line and came after the quarterback, and he showed himself to be a surprisingly advanced pass rusher. His speed up the field isn’t great, but he makes excellent use of his hands and shows a variety of moves to disengage from blockers. He has a hump move to toss tackles aside, and probably the best spin move I saw from any pass rusher in the class.

What does this mean in the NFL? I’m not sure. He definitely doesn’t have the size or the athleticism to be a full time edge rusher, but his versatility does give defenses options. In college he was also dangerous on more traditional blitzes, and that value will carry over to the NFL. There’s more upside here than I initially thought, but it will require a very specific set of circumstances to draw it out, and the downside is enough to push him down into the middle of the first round.

Tremaine Edmunds, LB – Virginia Tech

There might not be a player in the draft whose ultimate selection will more reflect projection over production than Edmunds. As a pure athlete he is one of those rare few who stand apart even surrounded by the best athletes in the world. He moves just as well as Smith while standing four inches taller and outweighing him by 20 pounds. As a pure athlete I’m not sure there’s anyone in the draft that can match up with Edmunds, and that alone is probably enough to make him a first round pick.

It’s a much more mixed bag when we look at Edmunds as just a player. When he puts it all together he can make stunning plays, flying across the field and shooting into the backfield so fast it almost doesn’t make sense. He is an excellent tackler both in space and in congested areas, making solid, square contact and stuffing ball carriers in their tracks. Unlike Smith he has the frame to absorb contact as it comes to him, and he can leverage blockers to turn their shoulders and give himself a lane to the ball.

That’s what happens when Edmunds is firing at full speed. But just as frequently he plays hesitant, sitting back on his heels and catching the play as it comes to him. He seems reluctant to uncork his full speed, and he gets caught flat footed some in coverage, leading to embarrassing whiffs as he attempts to jam a route.

The key thing to remember about Edmunds is that he is the youngest player in the draft. Somehow he is only 19 years old, and he is very much still developing both physically and mentally. You could see his growth over the course of the 2017 season, as the plays where he played hesitant were much less frequent as the year went on. If he can keep this growth up he can be an All Pro caliber player in the NFL, but it’s still a big gamble for someone who might end up picked in the top ten of the draft.

Justin Reid, S – Stanford

Reid is an example of a more specialized safety. He is never going to be an effective force against the run, and he won’t be someone a team lines up as an extra defender in the box. He isn’t necessarily bad in that part of the game—not like some coverage oriented safeties that have come out over the past few years—but it definitely isn’t a strength. He gets overwhelmed frequently as a tackler, and he struggles taking on blockers in tight spaces, both of which look more like genuine physical limitations than weaknesses that can be overcome by coaching and experience.

Reid’s role at Stanford was to play either in the slot or in a deep zone, and that will likely be the case in the NFL as well. Of the two he spent more time in the slot, and I think that is probably the best place for him long term. He has potential to develop as a back end safety, but right now he loses his discipline too much for the last line of defense, and he doesn’t seem to cover a lot of ground side to side (despite running a 4.4 forty at the Combine, which doesn’t show up on the field.)

In the slot though Reid is a very effective player, and this will translate quickly to the NFL. He excelled in the agility drills at the Combine as well, and this actually does show up when he’s playing, as he effortlessly tracks receivers running a wide variety of routes out of the slot. He can flip his hips to follow receivers deep as well as any cornerback, and he does a very good job challenging them physically on their routes. He can match both quick receivers and bigger tight ends, and he makes much better breaks coming downhill than he does working laterally in zone coverage.

Putting Reid in the slot gives him more responsibility in the running game, but I think he can mostly handle it. He’s actually a pretty good blitzer, and keeping him near the line will add that element to his game. What he does, he does really well, but without the versatility of a player like James I think he caps out as a mid first round pick.

Minkah Fitzpatrick, S – Alabama

Fitzpatrick’s stock has dropped some as the process has gone along. Part of it has been just coincidence, as the quarterbacks have climbed up the board and forced other players down. Part of it was a bad Combine, which revealed a player who looked dynamic on the field as a mediocre athlete. But I think his initial billing as a top five prospect was misguided all along, and it would probably be better to take him somewhere in the latter half of the first round.

Like James, Fitzpatrick is a versatile safety who played primarily in the slot in college. He isn’t nearly the athlete James is but he is a lot more polished, and many of the criticisms I had for James earlier are areas in which Fitzpatrick excels. He does an excellent job in tight spaces to maneuver through traffic, closing with good burst and making flash tackles in the backfield. He’s a solid tackler, even if he has a habit of being dragged a couple yards before the ball carrier is brought down. And he is good in man to man coverage, riding a receiver’s hip through his route and locating the ball to make a play as it arrives.

But even before the Combine Fitzpatrick’s physical limitations were clear. He doesn’t cover a lot of space laterally, and he can get outflanked by runs playside while offering next to nothing pursuing from the backside. He isn’t very big, and he will struggle with physical receivers in the NFL. And despite excellent understanding of plays in the running game, he shows none of that when asked to play zone coverage, just sitting in space and letting receivers run unchallenged through his zone.

Fitzpatrick is a polished player, and he has the ability to contribute immediately. But the lack of athleticism is more than just a bad day at the Combine, and it will hold him back from being a true game changer. For teams looking for an immediate contributor this trade off is likely worth it, especially once James is off the board. But he isn’t the defense altering star that some have made him out to be.

Malik Jefferson, LB – Texas

There is a fairly dramatic dropoff after the top three linebackers in this class. None of the top three is a clear future star, but they will all likely be quality starters with the upside to turn into something more. Jefferson brings similar upside, but I am far less confident in his floor. There is a decent chance that he will never be a reliable starter in the NFL, and that’s enough to knock him down into the second round.

When Jefferson flashes he looks as good as any of the three above him. He flies across the field with elite speed, knifing into he backfield and making tackles across the full width of the field. He plays aggressively downhill and destroys angles for blockers and ball carriers, and he isn’t bad in congested areas either, able to duck around offensive linemen with remarkable quickness and balance to keep himself clean.

The problem with Jefferson’s flashes is that they may be more random chance than anything else. He doesn’t appear to read plays as much as guess and go. When it works, he explodes for a big play that leaps off the tape. When it doesn’t, he runs in the completely wrong direction and takes himself out of the play.

There’s potential here, but it will require a huge amount of work. He is not ready to start at all his rookie year, and any time he spends on the field outside of special teams will be a major liability. But his athleticism is undeniable, and if everything breaks right he can be a star on the same level as the players listed above him.

Leighton Vander Esch, LB – Boise State

Of all the players I watched this year there may not be any with a bigger disparity between what I saw on the field and what they did at the Combine than Vander Esch. He put together one of the best Combine performances of any player at any position, scoring better than the 80^th percentile in the forty yard dash, broad and vertical jumps, three cone drill, and 20 yard shuttle, all while being better than the 95^th percentile in height, weight, and arm length. Based on his numbers at the Combine he is a rare freak, which makes it strange that he looked so average on the field.

The straightline speed and lower body burst is believable to some extent. Vander Esch makes some excellent plays when he’s working straight downhill, guarding a gap on either side of him and shooting as a ball carrier comes that way. He doesn’t reach the sidelines very well, but he is effective in pursuit thanks to good long speed and consistent effort. But when it comes to agility he is sorely lacking, as he struggles to evade blockers and to keep up in pass coverage. His performance in those drills certainly raise my eyebrows, but not enough to invalidate what I saw on the field.

There are more issues with Vander Esch than just athletic performance. He struggles when he has to move laterally, giving up a couple yards every time he tries to scrape over the top of the fray. He engages blockers too far downfield, and he absorbs contact with his chest rather than his hands. His size prevents him from getting blown backwards, but he doesn’t have the ability to shed and chase the play outside his range. He does a decent job finishing through contact, but anything out of arm’s reach is too much for him.

I know a lot of people are skeptical about the Combine, but those numbers do matter to me. His performance there gives me some pause about ranking him this low, and he’s the sort of player I could look back on with regrets a couple years down the road. But I just don’t see this same level of athleticism on the field, and unless he radically changes how he moves at the next level I’m not sure Combine numbers alone are enough to project growth worthy of a first round pick.

Ronnie Harrison, S – Alabama

Safety is one of the most exciting positions in the NFL, but it can be fun for a number of different reasons. Sometimes it’s fun when a player like James flies all over the field making sensational play after sensational play. Other times it’s fun when you have a player like Harrison, someone who may not actually be that good at football but who can light up one or two offensive players with explosive hits each game.

Harrison moved around some in Alabama’s scheme as well, but he spent most of his time backed off from the line of scrimmage. This gave him time to read and react to the play in front of him, time he needed since he was never particularly quick at diagnosing what he was seeing. But when he did realize what was going on, he would come rumbling downhill looking for someone to lay out. He isn’t particularly fast, and he misses some easy tackles, but when he gets a target lined up he can make the sort of play that raises plenty of eyebrows.

Naturally this isn’t enough to make a truly valuable player, and I don’t think Harrison has what it takes to develop into more than an average starter. He doesn’t bring much in coverage except occasionally getting some wins when trying to press a receiver at the line, and he surrenders too much over his head. He isn’t much athletically, and he misses too many crucial tackles to be considered a reliable force against the run. I think he’s a decent low upside gamble in the third or fourth round, but don’t expect to get more than a special teams player who might be able to grow into a middle tier piece on the back end of the defense.