2018 Draft Prospects: Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

Courtland Sutton, WR – SMU

It’s hard not to watch Sutton and think that he should be better than he is. Physically he has the tools of a receiver that would wind up in the top ten of the draft. He’s huge, standing 6-3 and weighing 218 pounds, and he put up insane numbers in the agility drills at the Combine. His forty wasn’t anything special, but at 4.54 it’s not like we’re talking about Laquon Treadwell here. He has the tools to be dominant, and he flashes them at times on the field, but he is too maddeningly inconsistent to justify a pick in the top half of the first round.

There are things on the field that Sutton does extremely well. As his numbers at the Combine showed he has insane agility for a receiver his size, and those quick cuts show up with good route running ability. He can get squeezed towards the sideline too easily, but as long as he keeps himself clear of there he is an above average route runner. He is dangerous after the catch as well, strong enough to break tackles and quick enough to make people miss in the open field.

A receiver of this size you would expect to dominate at the point of the catch, and it’s frustrating that Sutton doesn’t do so more often. Occasionally he can make ridiculous plays using his height and strength to snatch the ball out of the air, but far too often he seems passive about attacking the ball. His lack of speed makes it difficult for him to truly separate from defenders, and he has a habit of pushing off to try to generate that space. He catches too much with his chest, and will drop some passes that should be easy completions.

Winning the catch point is something that can be improved with coaching, but a lot of it is instinctive as well. And as much potential as Sutton has in that area, I’m not convinced he will be the player the team that drafts him expects. He’s a good receiver, and I think he’ll be a capable starter for years to come. I’m just not sure he’ll ever find himself among the best in the league.

Calvin Ridley, WR – Alabama

Ridley’s game begins with his speed. His first step off the line is explosive, and he only builds from there, consistently challenging defensive backs over the top. He ran well at the Combine with a 4.43 forty, but he plays even faster than that on the field. Without safety help over the top a cornerback has no choice but to back off, and Ridley’s ability to sell a route deep before coming to a sudden halt sets up a lot of easy completions on comebacks underneath.

The problem is that there’s not much else to Ridley’s game. Weighing only 189 pounds he is often overwhelmed physically, both coming off the line and at the point of the catch. He shows flashes of good work with his release, and he can get more development at the next level to make it more difficult for cornerbacks to press him. But if a cornerback does get his hands on Ridley’s chest, there really isn’t anything he can do to break free.

There are parts of Ridley’s game that are as frustrating and inconsistent as Sutton’s. He will occasionally go outside his frame to make a difficult catch, but just as often he misses out on balls if they aren’t perfectly thrown. He excelled running a small number of routes, but he wasn’t asked to run a full route tree, more work he will have to do to adjust to an NFL offense. And while he can be dangerous with the ball in his hands, he can also run himself into trouble and cost his offense crucial yards. There are more flaws here than most people seem to acknowledge, and there is a lot of risk that he won’t develop into a complete receiver. And even with his down the field speed, I’m not sure there’s enough upside to justify that risk until late in the first round.

James Washingon, WR – Oklahoma State

Washington is a bit of a one trick pony, but if there’s a trick that a wide receiver can build a career around, being an elite deep ball receiver is probably the best one out there. Washington underwhelmed at the Combine, performing below average in every single drill, but he plays a lot faster on the field than his 4.54 forty (the same time as Sutton, a player who looks significantly slower than Washington). He doesn’t explode off the line in the same way Ridley does, but he ramps up his speed well, and he can work his way free once he gets ten to twenty yards down the field.

Being a good deep ball receiver is about more than just speed, and Washington has the other traits down. He is a master at tracking the ball in the air, and he does a very good job using his body to shield defenders from being able to make a play. He gives himself space to work when running down the sideline, and he can twist his body to make difficult catches over either shoulder.

It’s possible for a receiver to make a career as a deep threat without really offering much else, and I think that’s the most likely course for Washington. In college he ran almost nothing but vertical routes, and he doesn’t have the sort of quickness or make sharp cuts that would help him develop his route running abilities. He doesn’t do much with the ball in his hands, and he rarely jumps to high point a ball. He really is just a deep receiver, and as good as he is down the field I don’t think such a limited player is worth a first round pick.

DJ Moore, WR - Maryland

Selecting Moore is selecting based on upside. It wouldn’t be shocking if a couple years from now he proves to be the best receiver in this class (considering this class, that wouldn’t be a great achievement), but right now he is far behind the three receivers I have listed above him. But he tore apart the Combine, running a 4.42 forty and performing better than the 80^th percentile in the broad jump, vertical jump, 20 yard shuttle, and 60 yard shuttle. And on the field he shows flashes of elite ability that could definitely develop into something dangerous.

Right now Moore is held back by a lot of little things. He’s a decent route runner, especially when he’s working straight up and down the field on either fades, comebacks, or double moves. But he gives away where he’s going before he reaches the break point, and NFL cornerbacks will eat his tendency keys alive. He needs to get a lot better at attacking the ball at the catch point rather than waiting and letting it come to him, and he lets too many balls hit his chest, leading to drops and allowing defenders to make a play.

But even with the things that hold him back, there are signs of the player he can be. In college he had a habit of making ridiculously athletic snags along the sideline, catches that didn’t count because his route didn’t give him enough room to work with. On some plays his catch radius looks much bigger than his 6-0 height would suggest, and on others he looks uncomfortable any time he has to reach outside his frame.

There is potential here, and there is plenty of reason to believe he’s capable of taking advantage of it. As much as the little things hold him back, there are other areas of the game where he shows good dedication to hard work. He is an excellent blocker, and he absorbs contact well going over the middle. He’s tough after the catch as well, willing to stick his head into tight areas to pick up extra yards. He has quite a ways to go, but he’s probably the only receiver in this class with the potential to become a number one threat. And for that reason I could maybe see him sneaking into the first round, even though I think his risk should knock him into the early second.

Dallas Goedert, TE – South Dakota State

Goedert is as traditional a tight end as we see coming out of college football these days. At South Dakota State he lined up all over the field and was asked to play a variety of roles, from stretching the defense down the field, to offering a safety blanket underneath, to blocking in the running game, even catching an occasional screen pass. His athleticism was dominant for the level he played at, but it won’t translate to the NFL, where he will likely have to find other ways to get open besides just outrunning defenders down the field.

Goedert has decent speed for a tight end, and he can make some difficult catches in traffic that you like to see from your tight ends. He needs to get a lot more consistent doing this, but the tools are there to develop with experience. He’s a capable blocker when asked to attack someone in the box in the running game, though he could do a better job latching on and sustaining so the defensive lineman doesn’t break away when the back comes by. But he usually gets good push along the edge, collapsing the defense and opening a wide lane for the running back.

Goedert will never be one of the best tight ends in the league, and for that reason I wouldn’t take him in the first round. He drops a few too many passes, and he doesn’t make the sort of accuracy erasing plays that the best tight ends consistently do. But as a plug and play contributor he’s the best at the position in this class, and I could see him holding down a starting role in an offense for five to ten years.

Mike Gesicki, TE/WR – Penn State

Gesicki’s Combine performance was the sort of thing that will be remembered for years to come. He scored better than the 95^th percentile among tight ends in the vertical jump, broad jump, 3 cone drill, 20 yard shuttle, and 60 yard shuttle. He also ran a 4.54 forty, all of this while standing 6-5 and weighing 247 pounds. He is a freak by every definition of the word, and likely the most athletic overall player in this draft class.

Now the problem: not all of this athleticism shows up on the field. His leaping ability is definitely there, and he will instantly be a threat in the NFL on jump ball targets. He also has sneaky agility when running his routes, seeming to lull defenses into a false sense of security and then breaking into an open patch of field. But he struggles to separate over the top, and he doesn’t do much after the catch, leaving him stuck fighting for contested catches or settling for ineffective dumpoffs over the middle. Physical defenders push him around on his routes, giving him trouble getting off the line and disrupting his breaks.

Gesicki wasn’t nearly as effective a receiver as his physical tools would suggest, but an even bigger concern for me was his utter inability to function as a blocker. I listed him above as both a receiver and a tight end because despite his official designation, I really cannot imagine him playing a traditional tight end role in the NFL. He isn’t just a bad blocker, he’s also an unwilling one, shying away from contact and at times even clogging up the lane he’s supposed to be opening. Any team that drafts him has to realize that they cannot just slide him into their normal tight end role, and I would be tempted to not even bother giving him that designation.

Gesicki is much better as an athlete than he is as a football player, and unlike Moore I’m not optimistic about his development. He definitely can have a role on an offense, but not as a feature piece. He’ll be useful on jump balls in the red zone and a reliable safety blanked in the middle of the field. But unless he suddenly translates his skills to the field in a way he never showed in college, he won’t be the game altering player his numbers suggest.

Christian Kirk, WR – Texas A&M

Of all the prospects I studied at every position there may not be a more sure thing than Kirk, and I mean that in both a positive and a negative light. He does enough little things well that I’m comfortable saying he’ll lock down a role in an NFL offense for years to come, but I don’t imagine he will ever be more than a role player. With his short stature, his poor performance at the Combine, and the overall inconsistency of his game, I think he projects as a number two receiver at best, and I wouldn’t consider taking him until the latter portion of the second round.

Kirk played mostly out of the slot in college, though I’m not sure if that’s the best use of him in the NFL. He doesn’t have the quick twitch ability I like to see out of slot receivers, and his most effective tool is his down the field speed. He runs a wide variety of routes and does a good job shielding off defenders with his body at the point of the catch, but on the whole he’s a poor route runner better suited to a spot where his speed will shift the structure of the defense.

Kirk’s agility was enough for him to be productive as a primary weapon in college, but he doesn’t have the ability to make NFL defenders miss in the open field. His strength will help him pick up a few yards after the catch, but he’s going to have to adjust his game to play at the next level. He has good instincts for getting open against a variety of defenses, and I think he can become an above average route runner if he learns how to sell his fakes better and make more precise cuts. But no matter what he is always going to be physically limited, and I just don’t see much upside in selecting him.

Mark Andrews, TE - Oklahoma

Andrews was a productive receiver in Oklahoma’s spread offense, but I really don’t see anything to suggest that he’ll be more than a rotational piece in the NFL. He is a subpar athlete with limited experience as an inline blocker, and there were very few areas in college where he really seemed to excel. His production was based more on the scheme he was in than anything he did himself, and I wouldn’t bother to draft him on either of the first two days of the draft.

Andrews did a decent enough job in college varying his pace and finding holes against a zone defense, giving his quarterback easy dumpoff opportunities. But he is more or less helpless when faced with man coverage. He doesn’t have the speed or quickness to separate, and his lack of athletic ability was reinforced by the Combine. He gets overwhelmed by physical defenders, and he rarely goes outside his frame to make difficult or contested catches.

As a blocker Andrews is merely average, capable of getting in people’s way in space but not of physically winning battles. He struggles to sustain contact, and he gets lost looking for people to block when he’s in the box. With a couple years of development he might be able to grow into a league average tight end. But that is his clear ceiling, and not worth any kind of real investment.