2018 Draft Prospects: Edge

I’m almost finished with my prospect breakdowns, and by now I feel comfortable saying that this is not a good draft class. It is extremely weak at the top, and it isn’t particularly deep either. There are no surefire stars at running back, wide receiver, or cornerback, and it’s going to be hard to fill out a top ten when I do my mock draft in a couple of weeks.

There aren’t any top tier edge rushers like we’ve seen the past couple years in Joey Bosa and Myles Garrett, but this is one position where there is some intriguing depth. I could see up to seven edge defenders going off the board in the first round, and most of them will likely be deserving of the selection. There may not be any future Defensive Player of the Year contenders among this group, but there are a lot of high quality starters to be found, and a couple of players with the upside to be even more.

Marcus Davenport, UTSA

The level of competition makes scouting Davenport a challenge, and it adds some risk to a player who otherwise looks dominant. He was head and shoulders above everyone else on the field in every game he played, and there wasn’t really an opportunity to see how he fared against someone who could match his athleticism. And after a mildly disappointing Combine that showed he was merely a very good athlete rather than a spectacular one, there are enough concerns about Davenport to knock him out of the top ten.

But whatever the level of competition, it is clear that Davenport is a very skilled and very dangerous pass rusher. He has excellent size with a height of 6-6 and a weight of 264 pounds, and he possesses a combination of speed and power that few others in this class can match. He is capable of exploding upfield around the edge and of attacking with his hands into the chest of an opposing blocker. He doesn’t possess many counter moves, but he has good bend to cut down the angle of his rush if he can use his strength to create an angle to the quarterback.

Davenport has to get better as a run defender, and he will often run himself out of plays trying to chase the quarterback. But he is otherwise a smart player, keeping his eyes up as he rushes so he can leap to swat down passes or reach and hit the quarterback’s arm to disrupt the throw. He has excellent closing burst which will allow him to be an effective finisher, and if he can translate his skills against the higher level of competition he’ll face in the NFL, he could be an All Pro caliber edge defender for years to come.

Bradley Chubb, NC State

Chubb is on of the safest prospects in the entire class. He does a lot of things well, with a combination of speed, explosiveness, and power that is rare to find among even the best NFL edge defenders. He shoots off the ball with the ability to race around the edge or blow through an interior gap in an instant, allowing him to wreak havoc in the backfield against both the pass and the run.

Chubb isn’t the most technically advanced pass rusher, but he shows the skills to develop a variety of secondary counter moves. He has the power to toss linemen aside with a hump move, and he’s quick enough to cut across a tackle’s face and blow past him inside. He powers through most arm contact, and though his bend around the edge isn’t elite, he can cut off the distance he has to travel with just his strength.

I do have some concerns about just how high Chubb’s ceiling is. He’s mostly a good run defender, but he can get blown backwards at the point of attack. And while he’s an above average athlete, he isn’t the sort of physical freak I normally like to see in top ten edge defenders. Despite what some people are claiming, he’s not in the same class as Garrett a year ago. He’s the sort of player who could develop into a consistent ten sack producer, but I’m not sure he’ll ever be one of the best in the league.

Lorenzo Carter, Georgia

 

Carter is a sensational athlete and probably the most versatile edge defender I studied in the draft. During his time in college he was a consistent threat bringing pressure off the edge, but he also spent time contributing from a variety of other positions, whether off the line as a read and react linebacker or split out in coverage in the slot. He’s capable of dropping back and running with receivers, and he’s especially skilled at stacking up tight ends as they try to come off the line. He will be a perfect immediate contributor for a 3-4 team looking for an outside linebacker to fill multiple roles, and down the road he has the potential to develop into a truly dangerous weapon.

The most valuable player on any defense is one who can get after the quarterback, and it’s worth questioning whether Carter is truly elite in this area. His first step off the ball isn’t great, though he has good secondary burst to get past the tackle upfield. He can be a bit inflexible trying to bend around the edge, and on the whole he doesn’t bring much power to cut down angles (though he can force his way through with a long arm into the center of a blocker’s chest). He has a lot of development to do as a pure pass rusher, but he has the tools needed to become a dangerous force.

Carter is a raw player, but his versatile experience at Georgia suggests that he can pick up new skills quickly. He does a good job keeping contain when asked to hold the edge, and he has the athletic ability to force a running back to cut inside and then dart across the lineman’s face to make a tackle without truly abandoning his responsibility. He needs to get better absorbing contact and shedding blocks in the running game, but he has the skills to do so, skills that can continue to develop in the NFL in whatever role his new team wants him to fill.

Arden Key, LSU

 

Every year there is at least one player like Key that is very difficult for me to evaluate. Much of the conversation around him has to do with issues off the field, issues I am in no place to address. So I’m not going to penalize him for these concerns, and I will rank him as if he was a perfect citizen, even though the real problems will likely knock him lower in the actual draft.

On the field Key is a pure speed rusher who excels attacking off the edge against the pass. His first step is explosive, but where he really makes his mark is with his secondary burst. He is able to give a subtle shoulder fake to the inside and then explode upfield, knocking an opposing tackle off balance and then running around him. His bend around the corner is inconsistent, but he shows flashes of true dominance as he wraps around and swallows the quarterback from behind.

Key’s biggest weakness is a lack of physical strength. His weight has reportedly fluctuated by up to 50 pounds over the past couple years, but whenever he plays on the field he consistently looks frail and undersized. If a blocker gets his hands on Key, the play is essentially over for him, as he has no ability to push through contact or to shed. But he is very skilled with his hands to keep himself from being contacted, swatting or swimming his way around the tackle and using his quickness to elude the contact.

Where his lack of strength really shows up is in the running game. Key can occasionally shoot into the backfield and make a tackle for a loss on a running back, but more often than not he ends up helplessly stacked up at the line of scrimmage. He doesn’t squeeze the edge, and he gets caught inside sometimes when he is supposed to be holding contain. His weakness in this part of the game is definitely a concern, and more than anything else that is what knocks him down my board. I worry he will never have the strength to be more than just a speed rusher, and that sort of player doesn’t strike me as worth grabbing before the twentieth selection.

Harold Landry, Boston College

 

Landry is a one dimensional pass rusher, but that one dimension is still enough to make him worth a late first round pick. His game is all about speed around the edge, and that’s pretty much all there is to it. He explodes out of his snap with an excellent first step, and he ramps up from their to get leverage on the tackle. He then finishes with impressive bend, cutting almost straight sideways to finish at the quarterback.

Speed is the most effective way to win as a pass rusher in the NFL, but the best rushers have a lot more tools in their bag. Landry does a decent job using his hands to keep himself clean coming around the edge, but he doesn’t create real separation with the tackle that he can use to employ counter moves to keep the blocker off balance. He isn’t particularly big, and he doesn’t play with much power, meaning that tackles with NFL caliber quickness can usually stymie him by dropping deep and cutting him off.

Landry doesn’t bring much against the run besides occasionally chasing plays down from behind, and he is easily confused when put in a situation where he has to read and react to the play in front of him. He tested well at the Combine, but in the end those numbers only confirmed what we already knew. He is an explosive athlete who will cause some damage racing around the edge, but until he demonstrates some more advanced technique as a rusher there’s no reason to believe he will be anything more than the one dimensional player he is right now.

Sam Hubbard, Ohio State

Hubbard doesn’t boast elite skills in speed, strength, or technique, but he is developed enough in all three that he cobbles them together into a very effective player. His first step is not particularly explosive, but it gets him far enough upfield to find leverage against the tackle. He doesn’t drive through blockers to get to the quarterback, but he can twist their shoulders to cut down his angle around the corner. His bend isn’t spectacular, but he has the power to win even as he stays upright, fighting through contact with relentless effort to harass the quarterback.

Hubbard may not generate a lot of immediate pressure, but he has the skills to close in as the play develops. He has active hands that make sure he doesn’t get enveloped by his blocker, and he doesn’t lose plays as much as he fights them to a draw. His closing speed isn’t spectacular, and he will leave some sacks on the table, but he does a good job staying disciplined in his rushing lane to force the quarterback towards his teammates.

Hubbard’s lack of elite qualities limits his upside, and it knocks him down to the very end of the first round. But he has enough going for him that he will be a well above average starter for years to come. He holds the edge well against the run, and he keeps himself clean enough that he can break away from contact and win at the tackle point. He’s comfortable moving in space, and his role could be expanded into more than just a pure edge rusher. He only made the transition to defensive end a couple years ago, so there is likely more room for growth as a player if he’s given the opportunity to define his role.

Josh Sweat, Florida State

I’ve spent a lot of time in the previous sections talking about hand usage and technique, but more than any other position edge rushers are often defined by pure athletic abilities. There are fantastically productive college pass rushers like Jarvis Jones who can’t cut it in the NFL because they aren’t athletic enough, while players who struggled to get the quarterback down like Danielle Hunter can explode based on pure athletic potential when they reach the NFL.

The hope with Sweat is that he’s in the latter category. He is a sensational athlete who absolutely tore apart the Combine, scoring in the 91^st percentile in broad jump, 96^th in vertical jump, and 98^th in the forty yard dash. He is long, and he is strong, capable of striking an offensive lineman in the chest and winning with easy separation. He was a fantastic run defender in college, and that will translate to the NFL, making him valuable no matter what he is able to accomplish as a pass rusher.

But that last part is still a question that needs to be answered. He didn’t produce much as a pass rusher in college, largely because he wasn’t asked to. He lined up mostly head up across from the opposing tackle, and his job was to strike forward and play the gap on either side. He showed flashes on the rare occasion he was asked to come off the edge—a good first step off the line, and the ability to knock the tackle off balance with his long arms—but he also struggled to bend around the edge and finish at the quarterback.

Sweat is going to have to be a completely different player in the NFL than he was in college. His athletic profile indicates that he can absolutely do this, but it’s hard not to have a little bit of doubt. In a deep class of pass rushers this doubt is enough to drive him down into the second round, though I don’t think it would be absurd for someone to bet on him late in the first.

Obgonnia Okoronkwo, Oklahoma

Okoronkwo’s pass rushing game is based off counters to his speed rush. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have enough speed to make this effective in the NFL. His first step off the ball isn’t great, and he doesn’t challenge offensive linemen up the field off the snap. He struggles to turn the corner, with less than stellar bend and issues using his hands to keep himself clean. His closing burst isn’t great, and even when he manages to win the corner the quarterback is usually able to step up and avoid him.

This is frustrating, because his inside moves are really spectacular. He can set a tackle up outside and then come hard across his face, shooting into the gap with enough speed that he’s usually on the quarterback untouched. He occasionally will strike with his hands to knock the tackle off balance, widening the lane for him to rush through. And he has an impressive spin move that he whips out a couple times each game to get himself into the backfield.

I’m just not sure if these moves will work against NFL offensive linemen. If he can’t threaten them outside, they will swallow him on the inside every single time. He isn’t particularly powerful, and he will regularly be overwhelmed in the running game at the point of attack. He’s much better pursuing from behind than he is stacking a blocker up, and he’ll be a weakness on the defensive line.

All of this makes me wonder if he might benefit from a position change in the NFL. I don’t think he brings much value rushing off the edge, but his quickness and athleticism could be very useful as an off the ball linebacker. It’s something worth exploring, and it gives him extra value, even if it isn’t enough to push him past the middle of the second round.

Uchenna Nwosu, USC

Nwosu can do some damage when he isn’t touched by an opposing blocker. He has good on the field quickness, able to explode downfield and finish with balance when he reaches the ball carrier. He takes smart angles and does a good job recognizing lanes to run through, especially on the interior of the offensive line. Like Okoronkwo he could make an effective off the ball linebacker, especially when asked to come on a late interior blitz.

If somebody gets their hands on Nwosu though, it’s pretty much over. And he isn’t particularly great at keeping an opposing blocker’s hands away. He doesn’t have a great first step off the ball, and he very rarely is able to get the edge when he rushes upfield. He’s pushed out of the play too easily, both trying to round the corner to get to the quarterback and holding the edge against the run.

Nwosu wasn’t particularly impressive at the Combine, and I see very little upside with him. He may be able to see the field some as a situational rusher as a rookie, and he could grow from there into a competent starter. But with the other options available in this class he deserves to fall pretty far in the draft, likely into the third round.