2018 Draft Prospects: Offensive Linemen

Offensive line play in the NFL sucks right now, and it isn’t getting better particularly quickly. After a weak class last year, things are only mildly looking up in 2018. This is an excellent class up the middle, but the tackles remain dreadful, and trying to protect the edges of the line is going to remain a challenge for years ahead.

Quenton Nelson, G – Notre Dame

Nelson looks like what you would get if you tried to design a perfect guard. He’s big, and he’s strong, and he’s surprisingly mobile, light on his feet and able to cover a lot of ground as a blocker. He excels pulling out into space as a lead blocker, especially once he gets turned upfield and can set his sights on a smaller linebacker or defensive back. He has the sort of nasty streak that guards are known for, and he enjoys driving defenders into the ground even if they’re no longer relevant to the play.

Nelson’s physical tools set him apart, but he has more working for him than just that. He’s an incredibly smart player, able to diagnose and recognize late developing blitzes on the fly. When there’s a man ahead of him, he is perfectly comfortable dancing side to side or absorbing a bull rush. When he has no one to block he is always looking for work, and more often than not he finds it. He plays aggressive, attacking off the line and searching for someone to hit as the play develops.

The biggest hole in Nelson’s game is his hand usage. He gets pretty sloppy sometimes, both as a downhill run blocker and a dropback pass blocker. On some plays he doesn’t bother to use his hands at all, and on others he makes poor use of them, striking off target and sliding away from the defender. He can knock himself off balance sometimes, and even though he has above average recovery ability he isn’t always able to make the play.

Nelson got by in college by being bigger and stronger than everyone else he faced. But that won’t work in the NFL, at least not right away. Defensive tackles are able to get into his chest, and he won’t be able to hold his ground against professional big men like he did collegiate ones. He’ll be a good starter from day one, and if he can fix his technique he can be much better than that down the road. But I still don’t buy the top ten hype he is receiving, and I think he’d be better suited somewhere in the middle of the first round.

Billy Price, C – Ohio State

When the actual draft rolls around, Price will likely go quite a bit lower than he should based on his tape. This is largely due to a torn pectoral he suffered at the Combine, which will reportedly keep him off the field right up to the beginning of training camp. In a year with a deep interior offensive line class this will likely be enough to convince teams to pass on him. But I am not going to knock him down my board because of it. I don’t know how to properly measure this sort of risk factor, and to try to penalize him for it with my limited knowledge of medicine and his specific circumstance would be unfair. I will evaluate Price with the same criteria I use for all the other players, and that criteria tells me he is worth a mid first round selection.

Price’s greatest strength is his hand usage. He has a phenomenal punch that is almost always perfectly timed and perfectly aimed, striking a defender high on his shoulders to knock him off his rush. In the passing game Price can absorb contact and anchor into the ground, and in the rushing game he can win control of a defender’s upper body. His hands latch on and do not let go, and on down blocks he does a fine job swinging his hips around to prevent a defender from crossing his face.

My biggest concerns about Price are athleticism, concerns that we were unable to confirm or refute after he was injured at the Combine. On film he appears to struggle when he has to move laterally, taking a long time whenever he is asked to pull around as a lead blocker. He doesn’t have the speed to pull regularly in the NFL, and he isn’t going to be able to offer any help outside the tackle box. His athleticism also causes issues when he has to react quickly to stunts or late pressure, as he has issues moving his feet to pick up a late rusher.

Price has good strength in his upper body, but he is going to need to develop more power from the waist down. He doesn’t push defenders around in the running game, and if they play him head up he has trouble taking advantage of his upper body leverage to swing them around and seal off the hole. The truth is, he likely isn’t ever going to be someone who physically dominates the opponent, and that limits his ceiling enough to knock him down despite being one of the cleanest technicians in the draft.

Will Hernandez, G – UTEP

Hernandez is another extremely big and extremely strong interior line prospect. At the Combine he weighed 327 pounds and did 37 reps on the bench press, a pair of impressive numbers that confirmed what I saw on tape. Hernandez is a bulldozer in the running game and a brick wall in the passing game, and in the right scheme he can be a high level contributor.

Movement is Hernandez’s biggest weakness, though he’s better in space than you would expect from someone his size. He has decent agility from side to side, and he can get even better as he works on his balance and technique going forward. But right now he looks clumsy whenever he tries to pull, and he struggles to move to the second level to pick up linebackers in space. Any scheme that asks him to move around too much will not be making the best use of him, and that lack of versatility should knock him down to the very end of the first round.

Even in his comfort zone, Hernandez still has quite a bit to work on. He has strong hands when he engages and locks on, and he can twist a defender’s upper body and move his feet to seal off a running lane. But at times he will miss his target with his punches, getting too wide and exposing his chest. His feet aren’t quick enough to instantly mirror defenders, and while his upper body strength is enough to give him time to catch up, it does leave him vulnerable to occasional holding penalties. In general I would like to see him be more aggressive, leading with a powerful punch rather than catching defenders and keeping his feet moving after contact to get movement down the field. He’s a bit of a development project, and I’m not sure if he’s ready to start as a rookie, but there is a decently high ceiling if he’s put into a position that utilizes his strengths and minimizes his weaknesses.

Orlando Brown, T – Oklahoma

Brown may be the most difficult prospect I’ve ever had to rank, because he is the player who most directly challenges me on how I weigh tape versus athletic ability. If I was just ranking him based on what he does on the field, I’d have him as a mid first round pick, potentially even in the top ten. If I was ranking him just based on what he did at the Combine, I don’t think he’d be draftable.

Even if you aren’t a fan of the Combine, we have to acknowledge what Brown did there. He had quite possibly the worst performance any player at any position has ever had. He ranked in the first percentile in the forty yard dash, vertical jump, broad jump, 20 yard shuttle, and bench press. He put up numbers that don’t seem physically possible. How does someone who weighs 345 pounds only get 13 reps benching 225? How does someone have less than 20 inches in the vertical? When he gets drafted he will be the worst athlete to ever be drafted in the NFL, and it won’t be particularly close.

And the thing is, it’s not like we can’t see his questionable athleticism on the field. He moves better than his numbers indicate, but he still looks slow when asked to pull to the other side of the line or cut back downhill in response to an inside move. But he often didn’t have to move much, as his size allowed him to occupy so much more space than even a normal offensive tackle. He’s so big that he can’t be bull rushed, and his arms are so long that it takes forever to run around him. And despite his bench press failures he showed an impressive punch on the field, able to stop a pass rusher in his tracks and force him wide up the field.

I don’t know what to make of Brown at all. At times he can be a dominant force against the run, collapsing an entire side of the line on a down block. And he has good enough technique in pass protection to make up for shaky mobility that sometimes exposes him on inside moves. But the simple fact is that there’s no record of a player this unathletic succeeding in the NFL. The issues revealed at the Combine raise questions about both his upside and his risk of becoming a bust, and I think they should be enough to drop him into the second round.

Mike McGlinchey, T – Notre Dame

No matter what happens in front of him, McGlinchey doesn’t panic. His play in and play out consistency is remarkable, as he looks exactly the same on almost every snap of the ball. He gets where he wants to go off the snap, and he keeps his feet chapping beneath him, ready to react to whatever move the defender throws his way. This translates into excellent recovery ability, as he never allows himself to get off balance is always ready to react in any direction. He is also able to absorb contact without surrendering much ground, chopping his feet to regain his balance and then anchoring once his base is firm.

McGlinchey’s style in his pass sets is a bit different than most of the other tackles I’ve scouted. Most tackles go for a single powerful punch, hoping to disrupt the pass rusher and then latch on. McGlinchey doesn’t have much power on his punch, but this allows him to conserve his balance, and to remain in position to attack in response to whatever the pass rusher does next. He can stagger an incoming defender with a series of quicker, smaller punches that allow him to react on the fly and handle advanced counter moves.

I’m not entirely convinced this style will translate to the NFL. Without an effective punch he will need to cover a lot of ground laterally to close off the edge, and while he is a perfectly capable athlete nothing he’s done suggests he is at that level. In college he struggled with pass rushers who had both the speed to get outside his frame and the power to push through his weak thrusts, the sort of players he will face regularly in the NFL.

McGlinchey could probably be an impact starter right away, but he has quite a bit of work to do to become anything more than just an average player. I could definitely see that development happening to make him a real force on the outside, but we’re likely talking two to three years down the road. I don’t think that kind of gamble is worth a first round pick, but I’d be willing to take a chance on my second go around.

Brian O’Neill, T – Pittsburgh

O’Neill is a former tight end, and he looks like it on the field, with all the positive and negative connotations that carries. He is a sensational athlete, smooth in every movement he makes, and he is extremely raw as an offensive lineman. The first couple steps of his pass set are gorgeous, as he drops exactly where he needs to be with quick feet and impeccable balance. And if the pass rusher does exactly what he expects, he is in perfect position to handle him, with an effective punch that will stop his rush and give O’Neill the edge for the rest of the play.

Problems arise when things don’t go exactly as O’Neill expects them to. He doesn’t know how to read the player across from him, and he is consistently beaten by anything more complex than a speed rush. He gives up his chest too easily, and he can get blown backwards in both the run and the passing game. His pass set is mechanical, and he isn’t in position to react back down if the pass rusher cuts across his face. And the moment things start breaking down, he forgets all his fundamentals, letting his arms drop to his sides and giving the defensive player open lanes to the ball carrier.

Athletic ability obviously gives O’Neill upside, but I’m not sure just how much he actually has. He has a long way to go to become a reliable starting caliber tackle, and there are parts of his game that may always be lacking. He doesn’t get a lot of push in the running game, and he doesn’t really latch on with his hands. Defenders are able to slip away from him after initial contact, and he doesn’t quite have the quick feet to shuffle away from them. I think that even if everything breaks right for him he still won’t be an elite NFL tackle, and he is far enough away from simple competence that this upside isn’t enough to push him higher than the second round.

Isaiah Wynn, G – Georgia

Wynn played both guard and tackle in college, but a limited physical skillset will likely constrain him to the inside in the NFL. He isn’t particularly big at only 6-3, and he struggles some with agility in space. This latter part will be an issue at guard as well, where he will struggle to counter some of the quicker interior pass rushers in the league. But he’s strong enough with his upper body that he can disrupt their paths to the quarterback as long as he has a tighter space to work in.

Wynn’s strength is in the running game, where his technique and his power combine to offset most of his other issues. He fires aggressively downhill and delivers a powerful punch, capable of knocking a defender off balance so he can drive him into the ground five yards downfield. His lack of quickness causes problems on aggressive reach blocks, but when he starts from an advantage he does a very good job of attacking the correct shoulder and using his leverage to swing his hips around and seal a defender off from the hole.

If there’s one thing that concerns me most about Wynn’s move to the inside, it’s his hands. He has a good punch, but after the initial contact he generally loses more often than he wins. He doesn’t latch on to the guy he’s blocking, and he can be beaten by quick-twitch counter moves. He will also occasionally surrender his chest, leaving himself vulnerable to being driven backwards. I’m not sure how correctible these issues are in the NFL, and I don’t think he’ll ever be more than an average guard.

Connor Williams, T – Texas

Williams is a good athlete who never really figured out how to use that athleticism in college. He is light on his feet and quick shuffling side to side, but just getting to the right spot is only half the battle. Once he’s completed his drop, Williams doesn’t really do anything to help contain the guy he’s supposed to block.

The key to good pass protection is the punch, and Williams doesn’t have one. He’ll attempt to strike out at the opposing rusher, but more often than not it’s like he isn’t doing anything. Rushers have no trouble blowing through his week armed blows, and most can get inside his chest where his slender frame is easily shoved backwards. Even when he tries to stay in front of his opponent he struggles to stay square, and it takes just one hand on his shoulder to turn his hips and open up a lane.

His athletic potential is intriguing, but I don’t see any other reason to care about Williams. His agility doesn’t translate to the running game, where he has trouble blocking anyone outside his frame. And while I think he has some ability to add weight without losing much speed, I don’t think it will make much difference. Some have suggested that he may be better suited at guard in the NFL, but that transition doesn’t seem to me like it would play to his strengths. He certainly isn’t ready to play any position along the line right now, and there’s no reason to believe his potential to develop into a starter is worth more than a third round pick.