Chaos in the AFC...Again

A year ago I posted a piece titled “Chaos in the AFC” attempting to make sense of the AFC playoff picture. A year has passed, a lot has changed, but things are pretty much the same. The AFC is a mess right now, with division titles and wild card spots still up for grabs. Jacksonville, Tennessee, Oakland, and New York are eliminated, but everyone else still has hopes of grabbing a spot in the postseason.

I put off writing about the AFC because I hoped this weekend would clear things up. It actually did the opposite, with every front running team seeming to lose and every desperately clinging team pulling out a win. There are now five teams tied for the final wild card spot, with two others hanging out a game away in either direction. Right now it’s clear that the Patriots, the Broncos, and the Colts are in another class from the rest of the AFC. These are the teams in the middle, ranked in ascending order based on how likely I think it is that we’ll see them in the postseason.

Houston Texans (6-6)

Remaining schedule: @Jaguars, @Colts, Ravens, Jaguars

I include Houston only for mathematical reasons. While they are technically still alive, it would take nothing short of a miracle for them to make the playoffs. With seven teams ahead of them fighting for two spots, I think it is highly unlikely they will get the wild card. Their only hope is the division title, which would require them winning the remainder of their games and Indianapolis losing either to the Titans or to both the Browns and the Cowboys. While not impossible, I think this falls firmly into the category of a long shot.

Houston has rebounded nicely from their disastrous performance last season, but there are still too many holes on this roster to compete for the playoffs. Andre Johnson has disappeared from their offense, their line is a shell of its former self, and their defense struggles whenever JJ Watt isn’t eating planets. Their six wins have come against Washington, Oakland, Buffalo, Cleveland, and twice against Tennessee, hardly an inspiring slate of victories. This team has established itself as the firm bottom of the AFC’s middle tier. They are better than the garbage floating at the bottom, but there is no way they can compete with the rest of the teams fighting for the playoffs.

Buffalo Bills (7-5)

Remaining schedule: @Broncos, Packers, @Raiders, @Patriots

Look upon that schedule and despair. Buffalo has had a fine season, outperforming all expectations and somehow still being alive with four weeks remaining. But they knew from the start that they needed to be more than just alive when they reached this final stretch. Anything more than two victories over their final four would be a monumental achievement, and it is going to take more than that to claim a wild card spot.

Buffalo is a much better team than we expected thanks to a phenomenal performance from their defense. They are on pace to lead the league in sacks for the second straight season even after losing their defensive coordinator this offseason. Their secondary hasn’t taken the step forward that many people expected, but the strength of the pass rush has been enough to give them the league’s third best pass defense. They have been held back by their offense, a unit that has only gotten worse as the season has gone along and injuries hit them. With Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller out they have no hope of running the ball, and Kyle Orton has been everything we expect from Kyle Orton since taking over for the benched EJ Manuel.

The lone bright spot is Sammy Watkins, but every play he makes is just another reminder that Buffalo does not have their first round pick next year. There are a few young pieces to like on this team, but right now I’m hard pressed to say that this year is a sign of things to come. They still don’t have any answer at the quarterback position, and they lack the means to make any sort of improvement during the offseason. The one possibility would be to try to trade a mid round pick for Robert Griffen III, but even if that works out they still need a lot more before they are ready to compete. Buffalo is currently in the midst of the longest playoff drought in the NFL, and I would be surprised to see it end within the next couple seasons.

Cleveland Browns (7-5)

Remaining schedule: Colts, Bengals, @Panthers, @Ravens

Cleveland is the surprise of the NFL, somehow still in contention when just about everyone had them pegged to finish near the bottom of the league. Surprisingly they’ve been winning games on the strength of their offense rather than their defense, behind a pair of rookie running backs and a strong performance from Brian Hoyer. Recent weeks have been filled with warning signs however, as they have lost two of their past three behind six interceptions from their quarterback. Hoyer was benched in their loss to Buffalo, and he will have a short leash going forward as Cleveland continues to fight for the playoffs.

Manziel looked good against Buffalo, but I’m not going to draw too many conclusions from what I saw. Every snap he received was late in a blowout loss, and the Bills never showed anything other than vanilla prevent coverage schemes and pressure packages. Cleveland’s offense wasn’t exactly inspiring either. Almost every pass Manziel threw was on a play action bootleg, and on his very first snap they literally ran a play with only a single receiver out on a route, the simplest read imaginable. The question that remains is whether they did this because they didn’t see the need to show anything or because Manziel is still struggling to pick up the playbook. Only the coaches know the answer to that, and their decision to stick with Hoyer likely reflects this factor.

In the end, I don’t think it matters. Cleveland is not a playoff team, and they will likely be eliminated within the next couple weeks. Manziel might be able to give them a spark and he might torpedo their chances. Their chances are slim enough that the variance might be worth it, especially with the way Hoyer has been playing lately. Best case scenario for the Browns is that they win three of their remaining four and sneak into the playoffs through tiebreakers. I think it’s much more likely that they win only one out of three and have to satisfy themselves with an 8-8 record and hope for the future.

Miami Dolphins (7-5)

Remaining schedule: Ravens, @Patriots, Vikings, Jets

I don’t know about you, but I came away from Miami’s victory over the Jets thoroughly unimpressed. They nearly lost to a team that had absolutely no interest in throwing the football, a team that hasn’t been particularly strong running the football this year either. Miami snuck through thanks to some timely sacks and missed field goals, but they looked as bad as possible on both offense and defense in doing so. They will need to pick things up if they want to make a run down the stretch.

Fortunately for the Dolphins, they’ve made a similar leap already this season. After back to back blowout losses to the Bills and the Chiefs they turned things around, winning four of their next five and clawing their way into playoff contention. Ryan Tannehill looked fantastic during that stretch, but he has regressed sharply over the past four weeks. They don’t have the running game to carry their offense reliably, and they need their young quarterback to continue his progression.

The schedule isn’t particularly menacing, with the easiest final two games of any team fighting for the wild card spot. If they can grab one of the two against the Ravens and the Patriots, they should be set up nicely to get into the postseason. But we can’t let ourselves forget last year, when the Dolphins managed only seven points in their final two games against the Bills and the Jets when a win in either would have given them a playoff spot. A postseason berth is within reach, but I’m not sure if the Dolphins are capable of grabbing it.

San Diego Chargers (8-4)

Remaining schedule: Patriots, Broncos, @49ers, @Chiefs

Earlier I touched on the difficulty of Buffalo’s schedule. As miserable as it is, they can at least be grateful that they aren’t the Chargers. San Diego’s slate is absolutely brutal, with games against the two best teams in the AFC followed by road visits to San Francisco and Kansas City. Even though they have the best record of all the wild card teams in the AFC, I can’t imagine slotting them much higher than this because of their schedule. In order to make the playoffs they will likely need to win two or three of these games. It isn’t impossible (and they fought their way through a similar stretch last year) but with losses already to both Denver and Kansas City, I have difficulty seeing them going on any sort of run.

The simple fact is, San Diego is not as good as their record indicates. They rolled through an early season stretch of games against the Bills, the Jaguars, the Jets, and the Raiders, but since then they have been thoroughly mediocre. They lost three straight culminating with a 37-0 shutout by Miami, and even in rebounding to win their last three they’ve looked more than a little shaky. They scored only thirteen points against Oakland, they were saved by an awful Shaun Hill interception against the Rams, and they would have been blown out by Baltimore if the Ravens had been a little more aggressive in the red zone. Even with some early season dominance they only have the AFC’s ninth best point differential, a better indication of team strength than wins and losses.

There are some reasons to still have hope. The game advantage they hold is massive, even if it is mitigated somewhat by the tiebreakers they would lose to Pittsburgh, Miami, and Kansas City. They also have the best quarterback of all the teams fighting for the wild card spot. Philip Rivers has cooled off considerably since his early season tear, but he is still capable of turning it on and playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the league. The only other teams in this group that can say that are the Steelers and maybe the Ravens, and Rivers at his best is better than Roethlisberger or Flacco at theirs. San Diego has a large hill to climb, but they are one of the few teams capable of climbing it.

Kansas City Chiefs (7-5)

Remaining schedule: @Cardinals, Raiders, @Steelers, Chargers

It’s hard for me to evaluate Kansas City right now because I’m having difficulty getting the stench of their Sunday night offensive performance out of my nostrils. That was brutally terrible, a total inability to move the ball through the air or on the ground. I had to go back and rewatch highlights from that game just to assure myself that they actually did put five offensive lineman on the field on most plays. It seemed like a lot less than that as Denver routinely tore into their backfield and ripped Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles to shreds.

I want to put Kansas City lower than this, but I can’t allow myself to be too overwhelmed by a bad performance against the best defense in the AFC. Kansas City’s offense has made it farther this year than I ever expected, and I’m not going to let one bad game confirm all my suspicions about their inevitable decline. Charles is still one of the best running backs in the league, and even in the loss tight end Travis Kelce looked like a legitimate weapon. Their offense will never be able to keep up if they fall into an early hole, but they should be able to keep up against most teams if their defense performs at its normal level.

Their schedule is one of the friendlier going forward. They get Arizona at the perfect time, a team whose offense looks possibly even worse than Kansas City’s. I’m not sure if either offense will be able to move the ball in this game, and I expect this game to be decided by whoever turns the ball over the most. If there’s one thing Alex Smith is good at, it’s not turning the ball over. After that they get the Raiders, and I would be stunned if they blew that game after losing to Oakland two weeks ago. Their final two games are against teams competing for the same wild card spot, giving them control over their destiny. With a victory over the Chargers already and an easier schedule going forward I have them ahead of San Diego, but it is by a very, very fine margin.

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)

Remaining schedule: @Bengals, @Falcons, Chiefs, Bengals

The good news for Pittsburgh is that they control their own destiny. The bad news for Pittsburgh is that they control their own destiny. No team has been more maddeningly inconsistent this season. After a three game stretch of a loss against Tampa Bay, a narrow win over Jacksonville, and a loss to Cleveland it looked like Pittsburgh was done. They then beat the Texans, the Colts, and the Ravens to launch themselves to the top of the division. Since then they have lost to the Jets and the Saints, sandwiching a less than inspiring victory over the Titans. No team plays to the level of its competition like the Steelers, and it’s almost a relief to see them with only potential playoff opponents left on their schedule.

At their best the Steelers have one of the best offenses in the NFL. Roethlisberger had that tremendous stretch against the Colts and the Ravens, but he’s likely been their third best player on that side of the ball this season. Antonio Brown has been the best wide receiver in the league this year, and Le’Veon Bell is the only player in the NFL with over 1000 yards rushing and over 600 receiving. This offense stalls at times when their other receiving options can’t find a way to contribute, but the bigger issue has been on defense. Age and injury have torn this unit apart once again, and their only hope is that their past two first round picks can return and give them the boost they need down the stretch. Both Ryan Shazier and Jarvis Jones looked good before going down with injuries, and if they can pick up that level of play again they might give this defense what it needs to be an above average unit.

If Pittsburgh wins out, they win the division. They can probably afford one loss, as long as it’s not to Kansas City. The opponents they face are all beatable, and strangely I find myself more worried about the game in Atlanta than any other. I’ve slotted them ahead of the Chiefs because I believe they are well suited to win that game, with a quarterback who can handle pressure and a defense whose biggest weakness is against deep passes, something that simply doesn’t exist in Kansas City’s offense. But it’s hard to be confident in any predictions about the Steelers. They could go on a run and win the Super Bowl, or they could finish the year 8-8 for the third straight season.

Baltimore Ravens (7-5)

Remaining schedule: @Dolphins, Jaguars, @Texans, Browns

If Denver, New England, and Indianapolis are the clear three best teams in the AFC, then Baltimore is an easy choice as the fourth. Only the Colts and the Patriots have a better point differential, and the Ravens are one of the only teams in wild card contention without a humiliating defeat on their résumé. They also have probably the easiest schedule going forward, and it would be a major shock if they didn’t make it to ten wins. I think right now they are an overwhelming favorite to make the postseason, and I wouldn’t be stunned to see them jump ahead of Cincinnati for the division title.

There are, however, a few things to be concerned about when looking at Baltimore’s season. They haven’t lost to any teams that are clearly worse than them, but they haven’t beaten anyone above them either. Their best win is either against Pittsburgh at home or against Cleveland on the road. Every other team they’ve beaten is at least two games under .500, and the fact that they are winning by such large margins can only mean so much. Good quarterbacks like Roethlisberger and Rivers have shredded their defense, and their secondary has only gotten worse as the season has gone along and injuries have decimated them.

If we were ranking these teams based on their chances of winning the Super Bowl I would have to slide the Ravens a few slots lower. But this is about making the playoffs, which shouldn’t be any problem for them. Once they get into the postseason they will need another world breaking performance from Flacco if they want to advance anywhere past the second round. I don’t think this team has what it takes this year, and I think they will be a relatively easy out once they make it to the playoffs.

Cincinnati Bengals (8-3-1)

Remaining schedule: Steelers, @Browns, Broncos, @Steelers

The Bengals currently have the best chance of making the postseason, but it isn’t because they are a particularly good team. They probably should have lost on Sunday and were saved only thanks to Tampa Bay’s incompetence and the most bizarre finish of the weekend. Cincinnati has been hanging by a thread all season. When they win, they win ugly. When they lose, they lose badly. Only five teams in the AFC have a worse point differential than them. Yet here they find themselves, a game and a half clear in both the division and the wild card.

It isn’t impossible to see Cincinnati missing the playoffs, but at this point it would take quite a bit. Their schedule is mildly intimidating, but they should be able to win two of their remaining four and slide into the playoffs. This might not be enough to win their division, especially with the easy schedule remaining for Baltimore. But it should give them an straightforward road to the wild card and another early playoff exit. Like the Ravens, Cincinnati has shown little ability to beat quality opposition. They won both games over Baltimore, but every other above .500 team they’ve played has beaten them by twenty plus points. Andy Dalton continues to hold back their offense, and his low points seem to only get lower with each passing week. This is the same Bengals team we’ve seen for the past few years, and I see no reason to expect a new result.