Fixing on the Fly

We’ve reached the point of the season when teams begin to separate themselves into clear tiers. There are those who have lost all hope for the season and now have only dignity to play for. There are those hanging on with everything they have, knowing they can’t afford a single slipup. There are the teams in a desperate fight for the playoffs, comfortable where they are yet unable to look ahead. And then there are the rest of the teams, the ones who have pulled away and now turn their gaze towards the ultimate prize.

Several of these teams are peaking at the right moment. Green Bay has been rolling comfortably on offense and defense for the past five weeks. New England’s defense is stifling, and its offense is dangerous with a healthy Rob Gronkowski. Seattle finally has its defense looking like it did last season, and Indianapolis is sitting comfortably at the head of the AFC South with the chance to clinch the division with a win this Sunday.

There is another group that falls into this same category, a group of teams that have all but locked up a playoff berth yet still can’t be feeling great about themselves. Making the postseason is a major accomplishment, but these teams have their eyes set on a championship, a goal that looks out of reach with the way they are playing offensively right now. Over the course of the season the Broncos, the Eagles, and the Cardinals have all established themselves as legitimate contenders, but right now they need to use the last three weeks to fix the troubles that have recently plagued their offenses.

I’ll start with the Eagles, since they are the team in the most precarious position when it comes to actually making the postseason. They are currently tied for their division lead with the Cowboys, though they have the edge in the tiebreaker thanks to their victory over Dallas on Thanksgiving. The two teams play again this weekend, and if Philadelphia can win this game they will all but lock up the division. Even if they lose they will still have the tiebreaker, and thanks to an easier schedule they have a strong chance of capturing the division no matter what happens on Sunday.

Chip Kelly stormed the league last year and dragged the Eagles to the postseason on the strength of a revolutionary scheme that took a unit without a clear answer at quarterback and turned it into the league’s second ranked offense. They lost a major piece this offseason with the release of DeSean Jackson, but they added another couple with the trade for Darren Sproles and the return of Jeremy Maclin from injury. With LeSean McCoy still running the ball and the offensive line intact, it was expected they would be able to carry their performance into this season.

That has not been the case at all. The year got off to a rocky start thanks to a plague of suspensions and injuries across the offensive line, leaving them with only a shell of a running game for the first five games of the season. They fought their way through their early struggles thanks to fantastic performances from their defense and special teams, but it was clear that they wouldn’t be able to compete at a championship level unless their offense returned to its 2013 form.

Four of their five starters are now back, and their running game has rebounded to something near the level it was at last season. It was expected that fixing the running game would fix their offense, but this hasn’t been the case. Last week’s loss to Seattle was the worst performance of the Chip Kelly era, managing only 153 yards from scrimmage and costing them a game in which their defense held the opposition in check. The two previous games against the Cowboys and the Titans weren’t as troubling, but the last time they played a competent defense they managed only 20 points against the Packers.

Blame for last week’s performance has fallen squarely on the shoulders of backup quarterback Mark Sanchez. Sanchez has been up and down since coming in for Nick Foles, and right now public perception has turned against him. Eagles fans seem convinced that their offense will turn around when (if) Foles returns this season. This may not be completely ungrounded. The last time we saw Foles throwing to a healthy receiving corps behind a healthy offensive line, he put together a performance that received MVP buzz. If they can support him with their reinvigorated running game, we could see something closer to late 2013 Nick Foles than early 2014 Nick Foles.

I’m not buying it. Foles was successful last year thanks to an insane and unrepeatable 27 to 2 touchdown to interception ratio. He managed this thanks to a lot of good luck, but also thanks to a lot of quick, easy passes with minimal risk. Defenses have responded by taking these away this season, forcing Foles and the Eagles to beat them over the top. They found success doing this at times early this year, but it also led to a sharp increase in turnovers. The return of a running game won’t force teams to unclog passing lanes. Whatever the Eagles were in 2013, they will need to find a way to be something different this year.

I’m still not convinced that Sanchez isn’t the better option for Philadelphia going forward. Foles is a safer, smarter quarterback, but  that may not be what the Eagles need. Sanchez has been very hesitant to make mistakes this year (understandable considering his history), but if he turns it loose he is much more capable of creating plays with his arms than Foles is. And even though he isn’t particularly mobile, he still moves well enough to offer a dimension in the running game that just isn’t there with Foles.

It is possible that the game against Seattle was an aberration. The Seahawks were coming off two straight games of only allowing three points, and their long, physical cornerbacks are well suited for taking away the quick throws that make up the heart of Philadelphia’s scheme. Sanchez’s performance in this game was miserable, but I think his performance this week against Dallas will be much more telling.

Three weeks remain in the regular season, and the Eagles need to use that time to figure out what they have at quarterback. Foles will be back sometime in the next couple weeks, and they will have to give serious thought to leaving him on the bench. In the long run though, I don’t think it matters. Neither of these quarterbacks is capable of playing at a high enough level to win a championship. The Eagles will probably stick with Foles for next season, but I think eventually they will have to make a change.

The Eagles aren’t the only team at the top of the NFC struggling through the loss of their quarterback. And unlike Foles, Carson Palmer is not coming back this season. The Cardinals are stuck with Drew Stanton at the helm for the rest of the way (unless he gets hurt and they are forced to turn to the wild football cannon that is Logan Thomas), and they have to find some way to make their offense work with him under center.

Unlike the other two teams I’m discussing, Arizona has never been accused of having a “great” offense. Defense has been the strength of their team for the past few seasons, and it is the primary reason they have ten wins so far. But early in the year their offense was at least functional, and there is no way they would have started 9-1 if their offense had played the entire year as it has over the past three weeks.

Their early season success was part luck and part good strategy. Arizona’s coaches knew before the season that their team was going to struggle to move the ball on offense. The line had improved with the addition of Jared Veldheer, but it is still one of the bottom ten units in the league. Larry Fitzgerald is on the downhill side of his career, and Michael Floyd hasn’t taken the step up that many expected. Andre Ellington is a legitimate weapon, but he isn’t the sort of back that can carry a running game. Sustained offense was going to be hard to come by. They needed to find a different way to score points.

The solution they came to is rather simple. If they couldn’t sustain offense, they would try to create it in chunks. No one this year (except possibly the Browns) has been as aggressive as the Cardinals in launching the ball downfield. Their offensive strategy seems to consist mostly of dropping back and throwing the ball as far as possible, hoping that everything works out for the best.

In the beginning of the season, it did. The biggest drawback of deep passes is that they turn into interceptions at a high rate, but for the first five games (with the quarterback position split between Palmer, Stanton, and Thomas) they did not throw a single interception. They obviously came back to earth somewhat, but with Palmer at the helm they still did a remarkable job of avoiding turnovers. This season Palmer threw interceptions at less than half his career rate, and about a third as often as he did last year.

This is unfortunately not the case with Stanton. He did well to avoid turnovers early in the year, but in the four games since taking over as the starter he has thrown five interceptions to only four touchdowns. The deep passes have stopped working for the Cardinals, and the splash plays are no longer there for their offense.

With the luck of the deep ball no longer on their side, the Cardinals need to find a way to produce more consistent offense. Right now they seem to be every bit as confused about how to do this as I am. They haven’t had a running game all season, ranking second to last in rushing DVOA (an advanced metric based on play by play success rate and adjusted for strength of competition) ahead of only the Raiders. Kerwynn Williams looked good in his one game against Kansas City, and he is something they need to explore over their final three games.

The loss of Andre Ellington hurts. He hasn’t done much as a runner, but he has been incredibly productive in the passing game. Some of Stanton’s issues throwing downfield can be blamed on his absence. In the past if nothing was available deep, Cardinals quarterbacks always had the option of checking down to one of the league’s most electrifying playmakers. Without him available as a safety valve, Stanton has been under more pressure to force the ball deep.

There are a lot of problems with Arizona’s offense right now, and it will not be easy to fix them. The best they can hope for is competence which, if their defense can continue to perform at an elite level through mounting injuries, might be enough for them to make a run through the playoffs. Three weeks is probably not enough time to iron out their issues, but that’s all the time they have.

It seems insane that we’re concerned with Denver’s offense, yet here we are. The unit that shattered offensive records last season, that still sits second in total offensive DVOA, the unit that everyone knows will deliver the Broncos to the promise land, hasn't been very good the past few weeks. After eclipsing thirty points in six of their first nine games, they’ve reached that mark only once in the past four. Watching them on the field, their appearance backs up the numbers. There is something off about Denver’s offense.

The strangest part of Denver’s recent struggles is that they have come as their running game has finally taken off. Early in the year as they shuffled between Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball they could do nothing on the ground. This was a concern at the time, but it never truly inhibited their offense. They continued to be a dangerous team on the strength of Peyton Manning and their skill position players on the outside.

Over the past few weeks they have solved their running game, thanks to the move of Louis Vasquez to right tackle and the emergence of CJ Anderson. But as this has happened their passing game has fallen to pieces. Against the Rams they managed only seven points. Against the Chiefs and the Bills they were able to do nothing offensively in the second half. The Dolphins game was the one time their offense managed to put up points, and that came on the back of a heroic effort from Anderson.

Some of their struggles can be blamed on their competition. The past four games have come against four of the best pass rushing teams in the league. Cameron Wake and Justin Houston are two of the NFL's best pass rushers, and both usually rush from the offense’s right side where Denver’s line is the weakest. St Louis and Buffalo produce the most consistent pressure across a front four outside of Detroit. It isn’t difficult to see a trend, and it might be simple to dismiss Denver’s struggles as the result of facing elite pass rushes.

The problem with this conclusion is Peyton Manning. No quarterback is as effective at handling pressure as Manning has been throughout his career. He’s had the lowest sack percentage in the league four of his past five seasons as a starter, and he’s been sacked at the same rate in the past four games as in the previous nine. Under most circumstances Manning can handle pressure. So why has the offense struggled now?

The answer is at wide receiver. The reason Manning is so adept at handling pressure is because he is far and away the smartest quarterback in the game. He gets through his reads faster than any other passer, and defenses are forced to tightly defend every single receiver when they bring pressure. Most quarterbacks will only look to one or two hot receivers when the blitz is on them. Manning has the ability to see the defense and pass the ball to any of his receivers, giving him more escape routes when the pressure is on.

This skill has been an asset throughout his career because of the depth of the receiving corps he has played with. Manning has almost always had two elite receivers to throw to along with a dangerous slot weapon and a reliable tight end. He had this last year, and he had it early this season as well. But injuries have hobbled Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders in recent weeks, and Wes Welker is a shadow of the player he used to be. Suddenly Manning’s only real escape route is Demaryius Thomas. There are plenty of quarterbacks in the league who thrive with one excellent receiver. Manning needs more depth and variety in order to play his game.

Denver’s focus over the final three games needs to be twofold: health and finding new weapons. Sanders and Thomas are back from their injuries, but it might be prudent to limit them when not absolutely necessary. It would be good to see Andre Caldwell and Jacob Tamme get some work, both to spell the starters and to see if they can contribute. Anderson is also a bit banged up, but they should try to find a way to integrate him with their passing game. Outside of an impressive performance against St Louis he hasn’t done much as a receiver. Getting a running back involved as a checkdown would ease the burden on Welker’s failing skillset.

Denver’s defense is one of the best in the league, and their offense has shown that it is capable of playing at that same level. The Broncos have struggled in recent weeks, but I’m not backing down from calling them the Super Bowl favorites. No team can match their across the board talent and production. They have some issues to fix, but if they can get things working again they will once again be the best team in the league.