Week Seventeen in the NFL

So we've finally made it. The final weekend of the NFL regular season. A year ago I broke down the final week of the season not by looking at the games that mattered for the playoff race but by looking at those that didn’t. After all, there are plenty of places you can go if you want to read about the divisions at stake or the wild card spots up for grabs. But chances are you’ll end up watching just as much of the games without meaning. Two teams already eliminated, now playing for draft position. A team locked in place and resting its best players. Or even games where playoff seeding is still at stake, but only if something goes terribly awry.

This year Week Seventeen seems even more meaningless than normal. Ten teams have already clinched playoff spots, and New England has already locked up home field advantage in the AFC. Carolina and Atlanta are playing for the privilege of facing Ryan Lindley in the first round, and four teams are fighting various collapses to remain alive for the final playoff spot in the AFC.Every other team, sixteen in total, has been eliminated.

There are a pair of matchups between teams that have already clinched the playoffs and now only have to decide who wins the division. Because of the vast number of irrelevant games, I decided to include Green Bay-Detroit and Pittsburgh-Cincinnati in the relevant category. There are actually only four games this weekend featuring teams who could still make or miss the playoffs depending on the result of this weekend. Week Seventeen: not quite as worthless as it’s been in the past, but still pretty meaningless to most parties involved.

Semi-Meaningful

There is something at stake in these games, even if it isn’t much. Seeding, or high draft picks. Even the seeds are mostly predictable at this point, as long as we don’t see any shocking upsets. If you’re holding your breath for any of these games to matter, you should probably just breathe.

Cowboys @ Redskins

Chase for 400

The Cowboys have already clinched their division, and technically they are still alive for a first round bye. But this would require losses by both the Seahawks and the Cardinals (I’m just going to ignore scenarios involving ties because this makes my life so much simpler). They face no risk of dropping into the four seed, which is actually unfortunate for them. The team in the four seed will most likely get to face Arizona, while the team in the three seed will have to play the loser of the Green Bay-Detroit game. As always, the NFC South has all the luck.

If you are going to watch this game, keep your eyes on Spray Tan (known to some as DeMarco Murray). Specifically, keep your eyes on his carry total. In NFL history there have only ever been five seasons in which a running back has reached 400 total carries. For comparison, no other running back this season is currently over 300 carries. Spray Tan needs 27 rushing attempts in this final game to reach that staggering number. It sounds like a lot, and there is no reason Dallas should give him the ball that many times in a meaningless game. But there was also no reason they should have given him 22 carries in a blowout victory against the Colts the week after he received surgery on his hand. Even though this season has been a remarkable success, the Cowboys continue to exist in a plane beyond reason and logic.

Saints @ Buccaneers

Suck for the Duck

It would be difficult to find two teams more disappointed in their seasons than the Saints and the Buccaneers. New Orleans was still alive for the division until their loss to Atlanta last weekend, but now they are stuck playing a meaningless game against a team in line for the first overall selection. The Buccaneers have been truly dreadful since the opening kickoff of their first game. They have a strong case to make for being the worst team in the league, and with a loss they can make that official. A loss in this game could make it all worthwhile, even moments such as this:

Marcus Mariota is considered the top prospect in the draft, and he fits a major need for Tampa Bay. Even if his skills don’t fit what they're looking for, they have the option of going for Jameis Winston. Of course, all this is before the gauntlet of the draft process that quarterbacks are forced to run through. Who knows how they will be torn apart over the coming months? But I think it’s clear that it would be a terrible mistake for the Buccaneers to pass up on a quarterback. Of course, with Lovie Smith at the helm I would only be mildly surprised if they went in a different direction.

Raiders @ Broncos

Peyton on the Edge

A year ago I highlighted this game between these teams as one to watch with Peyton Manning on the verge of shattering single season passing records. This year we somehow find ourselves at the exact opposite point. Rather than watching Manning to experience one of the greatest passing performances of all time, we are watching what might be the collapse of an icon. Over the past few weeks he has been straight up bad (by his standards) and last week against Cincinnati he probably cost them the game with his four interceptions.

The Broncos are still likely to get the two seed, and their defense is good enough to keep them competitive with any of the teams in the weak AFC playoff field. But they aren’t going to win a championship unless Peyton Manning is playing like Peyton Manning. Some have speculated that his issues have come from injury, which could pose a problem going forward. It’s also possible that this is just a cold streak. Tom Brady went through a similar stretch earlier in the year, provoking similar discussions about whether or not he was finished. If Manning is going to get back on track, this is the perfect opponent to do it against.

Cardinals @ 49ers

Colliding Catastrophes

By now enough electronic ink has been spilled about San Francisco. This year was a disaster, spurred by injuries, coaching controversies, and the failure of Colin Kaepernick to take the next step. Most 49ers fans and players just want this season over with, and they will get their wish by the end of Sunday. The team they’re playing doesn’t have that good fortune. Arizona has already locked up a playoff berth—they’ll end up with the fifth seed unless they win and Seattle loses—but right now they look like just as big a mess as San Francisco.

Injuries have decimated their defense since the preseason, but the Cardinals managed to fight through them thanks to the brilliance of defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Unfortunately, their offense does not possess the same resiliency. Carson Palmer is lost for the season, and there continues to be uncertainty about when backup Drew Stanton will return. Ryan Lindley looked as hopeless last week as you would expect from Ryan Lindley playing the Seahawks, leading to the decision to bench him for rookie Logan Thomas. But Thomas must not have impressed during practice, because it looks like they have already decided to go back to Lindley. Whoever plays quarterback for the Cardinals, expect a truly magnificent train wreck of a performance that will likely be matched only by the team on the other sideline.

Rams @ Seahawks

Aaron Donald the Destroyer

I know I’ve mentioned this already, but Donald should be the Defensive Rookie of the Year. In fact, if they didn’t bother to separate offense and defense, he would still deserve to win over any of the offensive candidates. He leads all rookies in sacks despite playing on the interior of the line and despite not moving into the starting lineup until Week Six. He probably deserved to make the Pro Bowl, and I think there is a solid case to be made that he should have gone first overall to Houston.

Donald explodes once or twice a game, bursting through the line and making a play five or six yards deep in the backfield. But his contributions are not limited to these occasional bursts. He will be going against a Seahawks line that is more than a little questionable, and he should be able to plow through play in and play out. The challenging part will be bringing down the opposing ball carrier, whether it’s Russell Wilson or Marshawn Lynch. But even if he can’t make the tackle, he will create havoc in the backfield and allow the rest of the talented defense to swarm to the ball.

Utterly Pointless

As meaningless as these first five games are, the next five mean even less. Three matchups of teams already eliminated from the playoffs, and two featuring AFC teams already locked into their playoff positions. I don’t understand why they even bother playing these games, but I’ll enjoy watching them nonetheless.

Colts @ Titans

Sometimes Bad Football Can Be Fun Too

This is far and away the ugliest game of the week. The Titans are probably the most miserable team to watch in the league. There is maybe one player on their team worth getting excited about, and even Jurell Casey is having a down season. No matter who they throw out at quarterback, the result is going to be ugly and uninspiring. No team has cycled through as many bland running back options this year, and even their exciting receiving talent has been dimmed by the dismal talent around them.

The Colts aren’t playing particularly great football either. After spending most of the season solidly entrenched as the third team in the AFC, they’ve dropped down the fourth seed and will remain there barring a tie between the Steelers and the Bengals. They barely escaped the Browns and the Texans—two teams without quarterbacks—and they were demolished by Tony Romo and the Cowboys. Andrew Luck has fallen out of the MVP race, and their running attack has somehow gotten worse. As bad as the Titans are, I would not be stunned to see the Colts choke this game away.

Eagles @ Giants

Fletcher Cox

I was vocal about my belief that Mark Sanchez could lead the Eagles just as far as, if not farther than, Nick Foles. I was wrong. Sanchez hasn’t been their only problem over the past few weeks, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say he’s been the biggest (Bradley Fletcher might disagree, but I think their offensive struggles have been more significant than their defensive.) Sanchez took over a team with a relatively smooth road to the playoffs, and now they enter the final week of the season without even a glimmer of hope. The Eagles are mathematically eliminated in a week that should have seen them playing for the division and a possible first round bye.

It’s too bad that their offense has struggled so much, because their defense has been a revelation over the past few weeks. Specifically their front seven, and specifically Fletcher Cox. A first round pick back in 2012, Cox has blossomed over the last half of the season into one of the most disruptive defensive linemen in the league. He can provide pressure up the middle or off the edge, and he gives their defense flexibility to attack from a multitude of directions. Coming into the season the defense was Philadelphia’s biggest questionmark. Now they have a very intriguing unit that could become dangerous with the addition of a cornerback. It’s too bad their offense has fallen to pieces though.

Jets @ Dolphins

Tannehill’s Lasting Impression

There is no question that Tennehill is in the midst of his best season. His completion percentage has skyrocketed to 67 percent. His yards per attempt and touchdown passes are at a career high, and he has a chance to set a career low in interceptions. At times this year he has looked like a player capable of living up to his lofty draft position. At others he has struggled, and with the performance of their defense it is difficult not to point at him and the offense as the primary culprits for their failure to make the playoffs.

The Dolphins have a decision to make. Tannehill’s contract goes through next year, but they have the chance to lock him up through 2016 using the fifth year option clause of his rookie contract. This would cost them $15 million for that year, though they would have the ability to save that money by cutting him after 2015 provided he doesn’t suffer an injury. This is still a major investment, and Tannehill’s uneven play has left questions about whether he is worth it. With the announcement that the Dolphins will be retaining head coach Joe Philbin it appears inevitable he will receive this additional year. It will be controversial no matter what, but a strong performance in the final game of the  year will certainly make fans feel better about the decision to stick with him.

Bills @ Patriots

Brady vs the Stampede

How do you like my nickname for the Bills defense? Terrible, isn’t it? Yeah, I know, I’m bad at this. But over the past few weeks people have steadily become aware that Buffalo has one of the best defenses in the NFL. They stifled Peyton Manning, and they suffocated Aaron Rodgers. They got caught napping a bit against Derek Carr and the Raiders, but this remains a dangerous defense against the pass. They boast more across the board talent in their front four than any other team in the league, and their secondary has slowly come together as the season has gone along.

They weathered Manning, they vanquished Rodgers, and now they face one of the other heads on the hydra of elite NFL quarterbacks. Brady hasn’t been playing at Manning or Rodgers level this season, but he is still an efficient and dangerous passer. Buffalo hasn’t won a game in New England since 2000 (which I mentioned when this game occurred last year), but they are as set to win now as ever. Marcell Dareus’s status is in doubt for Sunday, but if he plays the Bills will have the most dangerous combination of interior pass rushers in the league. Brady has always been troubled by pressure up the middle, and even though this game means absolutely nothing for either team the Bills would love to get the Foxborough Monkey off their back.

Bears @ Vikings

Teddy Time

For much of the season it was a tossup between Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr for who was the best rookie quarterback in the league. That is no longer the case. Over the past four weeks Bridgewater hasn’t just been the best rookie quarterback in the league. He’s been one of the best quarterbacks in the league period. He has completed more than 70 percent of his passes in each of these games while averaging more than 12 yards per completion (almost identical to Tony Romo's numbers for the season). He is attacking farther down the field than he was early in the year, and he is throwing the ball with more precision and success. Just look at some of his passes from the game below, perfect touch throws all over the field usually with pressure in his face.

 

With the Vikings eliminated he won’t have the chance to show off his skills during the playoffs, but this game gives him the perfect opportunity to leave the Vikings optimistic going into the offseason. The Bears are reeling, and the Vikings should realistically be able to handle them without much problem. Even if their defense continues its late season struggles and lets the Bears pull this one out, I expect Bridgewater to continue to impress against a defense that gave him issues earlier this season. Bridgewater has seemed to improve with every game he plays this year, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he capped the season with his best performance to date.