Fight For the Bottom

I’ve spent the past couple weeks looking at the playoff races taking place in the NFC and the AFC. But there is another race going on, one that some people might argue is even more meaningful than the fight for a postseason berth. I am of course talking about the race to earn the first overall selection in the draft. As a quick refresher, the draft is ordered based on reverse rankings of record. If two teams end up with the same record, the tie is broken by giving the higher selection to the team with the easier strength of schedule.

Six teams have already been mathematically eliminated, and now they can only look forward to the players entering the NFL from the college ranks. The draft this year looks a lot like it has over the past few seasons. There are a couple quarterbacks at the top who could rise or fall as the system tears into them. There are a lot of athletically gifted pass rushers, many without the production to match their skills. Skill position talent is hard to find, but this season there may actually be a couple running backs worth taking in the first round. How the draft order shakes up will be one of the biggest storylines down the stretch, and it will play a major role in shaping the league over the next few seasons.

St Louis Rams (5-7)

SOS: .539

Remaining Schedule: @Redskins, Cardinals, Giants, @Seahawks

St Louis does not belong in the conversation for playoff contention, but they don’t really belong in this conversation either. They are in all likelihood the best team on this list, and they are definitely playing better at this moment than any of the teams you’ll find below. They’ve won four of their past seven, including victories over San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver. If it wasn’t for early season struggles and one of the toughest schedules in the league, this could be a playoff team. I expect them to win at least two of their final four games and end up picking somewhere around the middle of the draft.

It’s unfortunate that this is the case, because this team could be one great player away from true contention. They added a lot of talent through the Robert Griffin III trade, but none of those players have developed into true superstars yet. Their team is solid across the board, but they need someone who can step up and make game altering plays. A quarterback would be nice, but they could use a game breaking wide receiver or a ball hawking safety. A top ten pick would give them a shot at finding such a player. Instead, I think they’ll have to satisfy themselves with another talented but unspectacular mid first round pick.

New Orleans Saints (5-7)

SOS: .482

Remaining Schedule: Panthers, @Bears, Falcons, @Buccaneers

Atlanta Falcons (5-7)

SOS: .464

Remaining Schedule: @Packers, Steelers, @Saints, Panthers

Technically the Vikings would be between these two teams if we followed the standard ordering rules, but I have grouped them together because there is a twist that needs to be taken into consideration. A few years back the NFL changed its rules so that any team who makes the postseason drafts later than any team that misses the postseason. This normally isn’t a huge issue. Last season the Packers ended up with the twenty-first selection because they made the playoffs, rather than the twentieth selection if things had been ordered based on record. A slot here or there, and no one complains because they are just happy to make the playoffs.

This year will be different. Just as the NFC South is on course to break the playoff system, they are on track to break the draft order as well. Whoever wins this division will likely end up with the twenty-first pick while the loser will draft somewhere in the top fifteen, possibly even the top ten. Obviously these teams are still going to try to make the playoffs, but the cost of doing so will be much higher than in a regular year. Based on the schedules I would guess that Atlanta ends up with the higher draft pick, but I’ve given up trying to make sense of the NFC South at this point.

Minnesota Vikings (5-7)

SOS: .476

Remaining Schedule: Jets, @Lions, @Dolphins, Bears

The Vikings have been playing well lately, and even with the easy schedule as a tiebreaker I wouldn’t be stunned to see them play their way out of the top ten. I think they will win both of their remaining home games, and I think it’s possible we could see an upset over the Lions or the Dolphins to get them to 8-8. Their defense is very strong, and barring a few injuries (Get it? Anthony Barr is injured.) they will have no trouble shutting down their remaining foes. Teddy Bridgewater keeps improving, and the outside chance of Adrian Peterson’s return could be enough to make them a serious threat down the stretch.

As a Vikings fan, I’m not too worried about them winning their remaining games. In recent years I’ve wanted them to get the best pick possible in order to rebuild their talent, but right now this is a team with plenty already. They are in a strange place where they could use an upgrade at every position have no real glaring holes. They have a talented young cornerback and a talented young safety, but they could use another player at either of these positions. Another pass rusher would give them depth on the defensive line, and a linebacker could eventually take over for the aging Chad Greenway.

The two biggest holes are at receiver and on the offensive line, but in both these places they have young players who haven’t quite made the next step. I’m not yet ready to give up on Matt Kalil or Cordarrelle Patterson, but I wouldn’t be against them going this way in the draft. Taking someone like Brandon Scherff could give them a reasonable solution at left tackle or a superstar guard if Kalil pulls himself together. The ideal situation would be Amari Cooper, but I’m not certain if he’ll be available when they pick. There are a lot of directions the Vikings could go in this draft. Picking higher would help, but there will be someone available to help them wherever they end up.

Chicago Bears (5-8)

SOS: .523

Remaining Schedule: Cowboys, Saints, Lions, @Vikings

I picked the Bears to make the playoffs prior to the season, and I still don’t understand how they can possibly be this bad. We knew their defense would struggle, but I never imagined their offense would be so inept. The unit was always going to have some struggles as Jay Cutler went through his ups and downs, but Cutler hasn’t been the biggest problem this season. They’ve received next to nothing from their monster receiving duo, and in recent weeks even Matt Forte has struggled to produce. This offense keeps getting worse with each game, and I honestly don’t think they will win another game the rest of the year.

Even with everything I said above, I still think they should focus on defense in the draft. The talent is there on the offense, and they simply have to hope it produces up to its potential next season. The defensive side of the ball is the part utterly devoid of talent. They need upgrades at pretty much every position across their defense. Landon Collins would be a great addition at safety, but there are also a bevy of pass rushers to choose from. The Bears have won enough games already that they won’t have their pick of the top players, but someone talented will undoubtedly fall into their lap.

Carolina Panthers (3-8-1)

SOS: .505

Remaining Schedule: @Saints, Buccaneers, Browns, @Falcons

The tie makes things easy for Carolina. Whatever record they finish with, that’s where they end up in the draft. No tiebreakers to worry about, no complications. Unless they get hot and end up winning the NFC South and jump all the way out of the top twenty as discussed above. It doesn’t seem likely, but like I said, I have no idea what the hell is going to happen next in the NFC South.

The Panthers are a team desperately in need of young talent. Their previous GM screwed up their cap situation, and they had to let a lot of good players go this past offseason just to make salaries work out. The loss of Greg Hardy to suspension didn’t help, and right now they are short pretty much across the board. An addition to the offensive line is probably their most pressing concern, but they could also go defensive back, defensive end, or even another wide receiver. There are a lot of holes this team needs to fill, and whether they pick in the top five or the top fifteen there will be a player available to fit a need.

New York Giants (3-9)

SOS: .526

Remaining Schedule: @Titans, Redskins, @Rams, Eagles

The Giants have gotten progressively worse each of the past four years without anyone really noticing. Their most recent Super Bowl run has covered for the fact that this has on the whole been a bad football team for the past six or seven seasons. The pass rush that was once the only strength of their defense has vanished. Injuries and age have chipped apart their offensive line. And Eli Manning is the same erratic turnover machine he has always been. Fresh blood like Odell Beckham is a big help, but they need a lot more of it fast if they want to get back to competitive levels before Eli’s career has run its course.

The schedule ahead is easy, and I expect the Giants to slide down into the 8-12 “Bills Zone” when the season comes to an end. This isn’t ideal, but they should be able to find something worthwhile there. They should start by building along the line, either selecting a defensive end to try to rebuild their pass rush or an offensive lineman to help protect their quarterback. This team is still a long way from contention, and they have to look at this year’s draft as a two or three year project.

Washington Redskins (3-9)

SOS: .495

Remaining Schedule: Rams, @Giants, Eagles, Cowboys

I was highly critical of the Redskins last season for taking actions down the stretch that greatly resembled tanking, mostly because they didn’t have a pick to tank for. It seems I was a bit shortsighted in my criticism. They weren’t tanking for last year. They were just practicing in order to be certain they had it right for this year. Now they are finally in position to throw their season away and to get the most out of their first first round selection in three years.

Of course, I’m not sure who they would take if they end up at the top of the draft. They might go for a quarterback, but I don't want to even consider how much of a mess this would make that situation. They don’t need a pass rusher, they don’t need a wide receiver, and they probably don’t want to invest such a high draft pick in an offensive lineman with their left tackle spot already locked down. This team needs to improve in the defensive backfield, and I’m not sure if there’s a player worth taking this high. Poor Redskins. Even when they screw up right, they still screw up wrong.

New York Jets (2-10)

SOS: .554

Remaining Schedule:  @Vikings, @Titans, Patriots, @Dolphins

The bad news for the Jets is that they have an easy schedule ahead, with winnable games the next two weeks and even a somewhat winnable season finale against the Dolphins. The good news for the Jets is that they are a really, really bad team that could easily finish with two wins. Unfortunately, they have a ridiculous strength of schedule this season. Only the Raiders would lose a tiebreaker to the Jets, and for New York to get the top overall pick they would need the Jaguars, the Titans, and the Buccaneers to all win at least one game.

This is unfortunate, because the Jets are desperately in need of the first overall pick. They haven’t spent a first round pick on an offensive player since 2009, and this year the top of the draft does not look particularly deep in offensive talent. Amari Cooper is an option, but that doesn’t get them anything if they have no one to pass the ball. They need to move ahead of the Titans and the Buccaneers if they want their pick of a quarterback, otherwise they may have to settle for taking the second or the third option available.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)

SOS: .521

Remaining Schedule: Texans, @Ravens, Titans, @Texans

With the way they’ve been playing lately and the schedule they have ahead of them, I expect that the Jaguars will win one or two more games before the season comes to an end. This will knock them out of contention for one of the top selections, but it will still leave them in good position to land a top talent. The Jaguars have done a good job rebuilding over the past few seasons, and I think that this will probably be the last time they end up with a top ten pick for the next few years.

There is no great urgency for Jacksonville to earn the top selection. They aren’t in need of a quarterback, and the draft looks fairly deep on both the offensive and the defensive front, the two spots where Jacksonville has the greatest need. The Jaguars should focus on winning games, improving as a team, and satisfying themselves with a pick in the 5-10 range. They will end up with an extremely gifted player no matter where they end up.

Tennessee Titans (2-10)

SOS: .490

Remaining Schedule: Giants, Jets, @Jaguars, Colts

Tennessee has the easiest remaining schedule of the teams competing for the top pick. Three of their four games are winnable, and even though they are tanking hard right now I still think they’ll pull off a win in one or two of them. Their offense is garbage, but they have enough talent on their defense that they could stymie offensively limited teams like the Jets and the Jaguars. In a low scoring game, a break here or there could give the Titans the points they need to stumble into a victory.

Fans of the Titans should hope this isn’t the case. They are so close to getting the top selection, to having their pick of quarterbacks or pass rushers. Falling behind the Buccaneers or the Jets would likely take them out of the running for the top quarterback, and another couple wins might force them to choose a second tier pass rusher. The two positions that will dominate the top of the draft this season are the two that Tennessee needs the most. They can’t afford to take advantage of their easy schedule down the stretch.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-10)

SOS: .474

Remaining Schedule: @Lions, @Panthers, Packers, Saints

No team is as desperate to land the top overall pick as Tampa Bay. The Titans and the Jets have equally pressing needs at quarterback, but the talent on their rosters still leaves them a few players short of contention. That isn’t the case in Tampa Bay, where they have two superstars on defense and a budding superstar at wide receiver in Mike Evans. Adding a quarterback like Mariota to this mix could turn them into contenders immediately, especially in the weak NFC South.

Tampa Bay doesn’t have the clearest road to the first pick, but they do have the advantage of an easy strength of schedule to give them a tiebreaker over just about anyone. Another win would drop them out of contention for Mariota, and barring a trade they might have to consider taking a risk on Winston. Of course, they could always satisfy themselves with an upgrade to their pass rush. But they need to find a quarterback eventually, and passing on an opportunity this year would only push their development down the road.

Oakland Raiders (1-11)

SOS: .599

Remaining Schedule: 49ers, @Chiefs, Bills, @Broncos

Right now Oakland has the easiest path to the top pick, but I still think it’s only about a fifty-fifty shot. Their schedule is intimidating and they have a game lead on the competition, but all it will take is one lucky game for them to work their way out of this position. One of the Jets, Jaguars, Titans, and Buccaneers is going to finish with two wins, and Oakland’s schedule means that they would lose a tiebreaker to any one of them. They need to lose out if they want to end up at the top of the draft.

Strangely, it might not make a huge difference if they slide down a few spots. Having the first overall pick gives excellent bartering power, but their needs don’t make it a necessity. Derek Carr looks like something worth sticking with for another year (though this could change if they bring in a new GM) and the other top players don’t fit immediately pressing needs. Leonard Williams would be a nice addition at defensive end, but the front seven is the one part of their team with some actual talent in place. It wouldn’t be a great tragedy if they slid down to four or five and had to settle for an offensive lineman like Andrus Peat or a wide receiver like Amari Cooper.