The Playoff Race Hits Thanksgiving

We’re headed down the stretch in the NFL, and the playoff race is insane. In a normal season a 7-4 record would have a team sitting comfortably in a playoff spot. This year it’s only enough to make it into the top half of the league. Yes, right now there are sixteen teams with a record of 7-4 or better. Only eleven of these teams can make the playoffs (because the disaster that is the NFC South gets a spot) meaning there are five teams currently sitting three games above .500 who will end up watching the postseason from home.

The AFC is probably the more complex of the two conferences, but because the Thanksgiving games factor so heavily into the NFC race, that’s where I’m going to direct my focus this week. Each of the three matchups carries heavy significance for a specific division. The Cowboys and Eagles are fighting for control of the NFC East. The Seahawks and 49ers are battling for second in the NFC West. And the Lions are fighting bitterly to keep up with the surging Packers in the NFC North.

Since these are marquee games on a day where everyone is gathered to give thanks for football (Note: this is not the story I was told in elementary school. But they also told me in elementary school that Christopher Columbus thought the Earth was flat and that bumblebees should be physically incapable of flight. So why the hell should I believe a word they said?) I am going to break down each matchup individually before examining the teams in the larger context of the playoff race. I’m not going to give any explicit predictions, but you should be able to figure out what I think is going to happen.

Chicago Bears (5-6) vs Detroit Lions (7-4)

(Green Bay Packers 8-3)

Lions remaining schedule: Buccaneers, Vikings, @Bears, @Packers

Packers remaining schedule: Patriots, Falcons, @Bills, @Buccaneers, Lions

The first game of Thursday is both the least relevant and least exciting. The presence of Chicago is a major part of this, but the Lions deserve some blame as well. Of the seven teams competing for the five available spots in the NFC they are probably the worst, and their only saving grace is the relative ease of their schedule. Already a game behind the Packers, they can’t afford a single slipup if they want their Week Seventeen matchup to mean something.

This game against the Bears looks like the perfect opportunity for such a slipup. The Bears are playing better than they have all season (not a great accomplishment, but still something) and are coming off two consecutive victories. The Lions are reeling from two consecutive defeats. There is a wide gap in the quality of competition we’re discussing—the Bears beat the Vikings and the Buccaneers, the Lions lost to the Cardinals and the Patriots—but right now I’m not sure it’s particularly clear which team is playing better football.

The two teams in this game are likely the two competing for the most disappointing offense in the NFL. The Bears were supposed to be dominant on that side of the ball, with one of the best running backs in the league and a pair of receivers no other team could match. Detroit’s early season struggles were blamed on the absence of Calvin Johnson, but in the three games since his return they have scored a total of 35 points. It is becoming harder and harder to argue that they are going to turn it around. The talent is still there, but right now it looks like Jim Caldwell has killed Detroit’s offense as effectively as he killed Baltimore’s last season.

This game is going to come down to the matchup of Chicago’s offense versus Detroit’s defense. A couple weeks ago Chicago faced a defense very similar to Detroit’s in Minnesota. Both teams are built around a havoc wreaking front four, and both struggle in the back end when they can’t get pressure on the quarterback. Against the Vikings Chicago managed to weather the pressure by throwing jump balls to their massive receivers and producing big plays on the outside. A similar strategy will work against Detroit, whose secondary is even worse than Minnesota’s.

But against the Vikings the Bears also had the benefit of a phenomenal performance from Forte, something they can’t count on this Thursday. Detroit is one of the best teams in the league against the run, and DeAndre Levy should be able to contain Forte as a receiver. This game will be tight and low scoring, but in the end I don’t think Chicago has what it takes to put up points against the Lions.

Even if they win this game, Detroit faces a tough battle to reach the playoffs. I think the Packers will coast to the division title, losing one or two games at most the rest of the way. Detroit will have to settle to fight for the wild card, and it’s a fight they can’t win unless they get their offense together. Every victory they’ve had since Week One has been incredibly tight, and eventually their luck will turn against them. Four straight easy opponents could pave their path to the playoffs, but I think they will lose one or two more before they face a superior Packers team the final week of the season.

Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) vs Dallas Cowboys (8-3)

Eagles remaining schedule: Seahawks, Cowboys, @Redskins, @Giants

Cowboys remaining schedule: @Bears, @Eagles, Colts, Redskins

As you can see from their schedules these two teams face each other twice over the next three weeks. A pair of wins would in all likelihood clinch the division for either team, while a split would leave us with another couple confusing weeks to muddle through. Apart from the games against each other, they both have one challenging but winnable game (Seattle for the Eagles and Indianapolis for the Cowboys) and two must win games against inferior competition.

The tales of these two offenses have been the tales of their lines. They have plenty of weapons on the outside and in the backfield, but the fortunes of these units have swung around the players in the trenches. Dallas’s offense has reached an elite level thanks to the emergence of the best offensive line in football, a unit that is now receiving buzz for MVP (yes, apparently it is allowed for voters to cast their ballots for a unit. I didn’t realize this before now either.)

Philadelphia has followed the exact opposite course. Last year they had one of the best offenses in the league thanks to a dominant line, but injuries have crippled them across the front this year. Jason Peters has been present for the entire season, but no other lineman has played even 70 percent of their offensive snaps. Lane Johnson has returned from suspension and Evan Mathis and Jason Kelce have recovered from early season injuries, but they will be without Todd Herremans for the rest of the season. It isn’t difficult to see what this has done to their offense, as they have fallen from the best running team in the league last year to 21st this season.

Philadelphia has survived so far thanks to their defense (Connor Barwin has been fantastic, and the rest of their front seven is solid as well) and their special teams. They are first in the league in special teams DVOA, and they have scored a total of 10 non-offensive touchdowns this season. For reference, the Jaguars and the Raiders have each scored a total of 18 touchdowns this year.

This is fantastic for them, and it has certainly helped them reach their 8-3 record. But it’s also a bit concerning, as this is the sort of thing that does not hold up in the long run. Eventually Philadelphia is going to have to find other ways to score points. Mark Sanchez has looked like Mark Sanchez since taking over the offense, and LeSean McCoy looks tentative even when the holes are there. The only parts of their offense functioning at a high level are Darren Sproles and Jeremy Maclin, good players but not the sort you can build a team around.

Thursday’s game will feature an offense struggling to break out against a defense struggling to hold things together. Dallas has outperformed all expectations this year, but simple competence on defense has been the biggest surprise of the season. We’ve already seen the first hints of the regression, and this could be the week that it all falls apart. Their linebackers should be able to bottle up McCoy, but they only need to make a couple mistakes for him to kill them. I don’t think they will be able to get any pressure on Sanchez, and they will have trouble forcing his normal mistakes.

The Eagles may or may not be able to score on the Cowboys, but I don’t think Dallas’s offense will have any real issues with Philadelphia’s defense. They can run the ball against anybody, and as long as they sustain a consistent running game they can handle Philadelphia’s pressure. The Eagles don’t have anyone on the outside who can match up with Dez Bryant and Terrence Williams, and barring a boneheaded performance from Romo the Cowboys should be just fine.

In a weird way, it might actually benefit these teams to be on the losing end of this series. Of course, if they can somehow jump the Cardinals or the Packers to earn a first round bye, that would be a huge advantage going forward. But Green Bay is playing better than any other NFC team right now, and Arizona has essentially a two game lead over both these teams thanks to tiebreakers. In all likelihood, the winner of this division will end up with the three seed and have to host the second wild card team in the first round.

There are still a lot of possibilities that could shake out, but there’s a decent chance the loser of this division would end up as the top wild card team, giving them a first round matchup against the winner of the NFC South. I know all the history about hosting a playoff game, I remember the 7-9 Seahawks knocking off the Saints in 2010, but the teams in the NFC South are really, really bad. If given a choice between going on the road to Atlanta or New Orleans and hosting a team like Seattle, Detroit, or San Francisco, I would be packing my bags in a heartbeat.

This is all still very up in the air, and neither of these teams is going to start tanking with five weeks to go in order to get a better matchup. But if they split their series and are still tied with two weeks to go, expect to hear a few rumblings in the media, and possibly even from people within the organizations. Both these teams are likely playoff bound, and it wouldn’t be absurd for them to start looking ahead.

Seattle Seahawks (7-4) vs San Francisco 49ers (7-4)

(Arizona Cardinals 9-2)

Seahawks remaining schedule: @Eagles, 49ers, @Cardinals, Rams

49ers remaining schedule: @Raiders, @Seahawks, Chargers, Cardinals

Cardinals remaining schedule: @Falcons, Chiefs, @Rams, Seahawks, @49ers

Like the Cowboys and the Eagles, the Seahawks and the 49ers will be playing two games against each other over the next three weeks. Both these teams already have four losses, and they are two games back of the division lead. This makes it even more crucial that they take this series. A split would leave both teams on equal ground, but two losses would essentially eliminate that team from playoff contention.

These were two teams with tremendous expectations coming into the season, and right now it’s probably fair to say that they are the two most uninspiring seven win teams in the league. It is hard to see either of these teams as a Super Bowl contender the way they’re playing right now, and if the season ended today they would both be on the outside looking in.

Offensively their problems stem from a similar source: a lack of progress from their young quarterbacks. Colin Kaepernick has had an up and down career since taking over as the starter, showing flashes so brilliant that we had no choice but to overlook his occasional struggles. This was supposed to be the year that he finally took off, and it simply hasn’t happened. Their running attack has dropped off even more than people expected, and they have made no gains in the passing game to offset it. If anything they’ve regressed, thanks to disappointing seasons from Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree.

Russell Wilson was considered to be a more reliable quantity coming into the season, but he has been every bit as disappointing as Kaepernick. His numbers across the board still look fairly similar to his first two seasons. He is still ruthlessly efficient, completing a high percentage of passes and avoiding turnovers. But his yards per attempt has fallen to a below average level as the deep passing game has disappeared from Seattle’s offense. He has been more active and effective as a runner, but so far this year he hasn’t done anything to terrify opposing teams as a passer.

Seattle’s offense boasts a stronger running game and San Francisco has better weapons on the outside, but for the most part these teams have made it as far as they have thanks to their defenses. But even this side of the ball has been a bit strange this season. Seattle’s once dominant pass defense is a shell of its former self, unable to hold up in coverage without a pass rush to force the quarterback to unload the ball. Their strength has been against the run, much as people expected from the 49ers defense. But San Francisco has turned things upside down as well. They are no longer a dominant force against the run, but their unheralded secondary has stepped up in a big way to give them the best pass defense in the league.

These are two very evenly matched teams, just as they have been for the past two seasons. The difference is, this year they are fighting for one of the bottom slots in the playoffs rather than a chance at a championship. It’s hard for me to know what will happen in this game. I think San Francisco will slow down Seattle’s running game enough to stymie their offense at times, but I’m not sure if I trust Kaepernick to take advantage of the time he has to exploit Seattle down the field. San Francisco’s offensive line is a mockery of the unit that dominated the league the past three years, and Seattle’s nonexistent pass rush might actually be able to get home in this game.

Picking a winner for an individual game is tough, but I definitely expect a split out of their series. Neither of these teams is strong enough to grab this race by the throat. They will continue to battle down the stretch, working through the two toughest remaining schedules of NFC contenders. Right now neither team is in the playoffs, and I wouldn’t be stunned to find this still the case in five weeks. I expect one of the teams will pull themselves together in time for a late season surge, and I think Thursday’s game will go a long way to showing us which team we can expect this from.