Future Hall of Famers - Offense

It is common when reading about the NFL to come across the term “Future Hall of Famer.” It seems to be thrown out in every discussion of veteran players, even when it is not particularly relevant to what is being written. But what does it actually mean? Who in the NFL counts as a Future Hall of Famer?

I’ve put together a list of active players who have an argument to fit this description. Because I’m not very good at predicting the future, I am judging these players only one what they have done to this point in their careers. Players like AJ Green and Andrew Luck are on Hall of Fame tracks, but if they retired today they wouldn’t have a chance. Today I’m just looking at offensive players, with defense coming sometime in the next week or two.

For each position I’ve listed several players who are absolute locks. I don’t see much need to discuss them, so I’ve focused my attention on the players who could go either way. If you think I’ve missed anyone, or if you disagree with my opinions, feel free to let me know. There’s nothing I love more than arguing with people on the internet.

Quarterbacks

 

Quarterback is the easiest position to figure out. The last eight quarterbacks to enter the Hall of Fame made it on the first ballot. If a quarterback is considered Hall of Fame worthy, there isn’t much debate about it. But it’s also the most maddening position to debate, because it’s the one where Super Bowl championships mean the most. There is a certain quarterback in the league right now (you know exactly who I’m talking about) whose argument depends entirely on his team’s postseason success. There are also a couple, better quarterbacks whose candidacy could be doomed by a lack of such success.

Locks: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees

Aaron Rodgers

This is a very tricky case, but it’s also one that really doesn’t need considered. Remember, we’re doing this under the assumption that these players would announce their retirements today, leaving their careers to this point as the only arguments for them. Rodgers has certainly achieved a lot since taking over as the starter in Green Bay, winning a Super Bowl and a league MVP. But he’s only in his seventh year as a starter, and he hasn’t put up the high volume passing numbers most quarterbacks need to get into the Hall of Fame. Of course, Rodgers isn’t going to retire today. He will continue to produce for the next five years at the very least, and he should coast into Canton.

Tony Romo

Romo has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league over the past ten years, even if no one wants to admit it. He’s had his ups and downs—as have all quarterbacks—but no one seems to have their low points magnified more than Romo. He isn’t dominant enough as a player to overcome his reputation as a choker, and with the end of his career approaching he will probably need multiple Super Bowl victories if he hopes to make it into the Hall of Fame.

Ben Roethlisberger

The next three quarterbacks are all from the legendary 2004 draft class, and they all have intriguing Hall of Fame cases. Roethlisberger likely has the smoothest path thanks to his combination of regular season and postseason success. He won two Super Bowls early in his career, and he has a bit of a reputation as someone who road his defense’s coattails to these victories. That isn’t completely unfair, but it sells short his contribution to these teams. He was awful in the Super Bowl victory over the Seahawks, but he was a crucial part of their playoff run up to that point. Against the Cardinals he had a legitimate case for the MVP and likely would have won had Santonio Holmes not been his only healthy receiver by the end of the game. I think he would get in if his career ended today, though he will certainly benefit from playing another couple years and racking up some better career statistics.

Philip Rivers

Rivers’s lack of a championship will set him apart from the other two quarterbacks drafted in 2004, but his success in the regular season far outweighs theirs. He’s had a more up and down career, but his high points were well above anything achieved by Roethlisberger or Eli Manning. He’s unfortunately never had a defense of the same caliber as the ones Manning and Roethlisberger took to the Super Bowl, and he’s suffered from some bad luck in the postseason. If it came down to it, I still think he would get in. But he is going to need the remainder of his career more than the other two, either to win a Super Bowl or to put up stats to blow the competition out of the water.

Eli Manning

The most controversial name on this list, both because of his career and because he plays in New York. Eli Manning is inarguably the worst of the three quarterbacks taken at the top of the 2004 draft. He’s been a turnover machine throughout his career, and aside from 2011 he has never put up any impressive regular season stats. But he beats both of his draft mates when it comes to playoff track record. Like Roethlisberger he has two Super Bowls, but unlike Roethlisberger he was named MVP of both games. He probably didn’t deserve at least one of these awards, but they will certainly play a factor in evaluating his candidacy. I don’t think he should make it, but in all likelihood he will end up beside his brother in the Hall of Fame.

Receivers/Tight Ends

Wide receiver is a mess when it comes to the Hall of Fame. The voters seem firm set against almost every receiver up for consideration. Despite retiring second all time in most major receiving categories, Cris Carter didn’t make it in until his fourth try. Tim Brown and Marvin Harrison are still waiting, and they’ll soon be joined by Randy Moss and Terrell Owens. With the backlog that’s about to form, I’m not sure there is such a thing as a Hall of Fame lock. Fitzgerald and Wayne will both probably make it eventually, but neither is going to sniff a first ballot induction.

Locks: Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates

Andre Johnson

I absolutely believe that Johnson should be a Hall of Famer. I think he is the best receiver of his generation, ahead of even Wayne and Fitzgerald. Even hampered with mediocre quarterback play throughout his career he has been a dominant force on the outside. He has the statistics to stand up against anyone, except when it comes to touchdowns. It seems difficult to believe for one of the most physical receivers the league has ever seen, but Johnson has never reached double digits for touchdowns in a season. There’s a chance he could end up on the outside looking in because voters penalize him for being on a team that always went run heavy in the red zone.

Steve Smith Sr

Smith has been one of the league’s most underappreciated weapons throughout his career. He slipped to the third round in the draft because he wasn’t considered physically impressive, and that reputation seems to have followed him throughout his career. Never mind how many ridiculous jump balls he wins, how many tackles he breaks, how consistently he dominates with players like Jake Delhomme throwing to him. He’s never been in the conversation as one of the best receivers in the league, even the year when he led the NFL in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns, only the third player since 1970 to do so. I don’t think he will make the Hall of Fame, but with everything he’s accomplished in his career I think he probably should.

Calvin Johnson

Another case of “he’ll make it eventually, but has he earned it yet?” For that I would probably say no, even though the voters might disagree. Johnson’s physical abilities and impressive stats have earned him the reputation as the undisputed best receiver in the league, to the point where we may have gone a bit overboard. Johnson is the best receiver in the league, but it’s closer than most people seem to believe. I don’t think he will ever touch the Jerry Rice level of greatness, or even the Randy Moss-Marvin Harrison-Don Hutson level. But I think he can one day slide in alongside players like Cris Carter, Terrell Owens, and Tim Brown on the third tier of Hall of Fame receivers.

Wes Welker

Welker has reached the point of his career when it is necessary to actually look at his Hall of Fame credentials. I think there’s a decent chance this is his last season, and I would bet good money that he isn’t around for 2016. His legacy is an interesting one, because his individual seasons stand in sharp contrast to his career statistics. For five years he was far and away the best slot receiver in football, good for 100 catches a year. In a lot of ways he revolutionized the position, helping bring a more spread out passing attack to the NFL. His contribution to the game is undeniable, but I think his career stats are weak enough that he doesn’t have much shot of making it to Canton.

Anquan Boldin

I have to admit, I’m surprised to see Boldin on this list. I thought he was washed up as soon as he reached Baltimore, with a candidacy that wouldn’t even brush the Hall of Fame. But the past few seasons have resurrected his career. He is now in the top 25 all time in both receiving yards and receptions, and he is bolstered by a phenomenal performance during Baltimore’s Super Bowl run. He doesn’t have the statistics to make the Hall of Fame right now, but he has the sort of game that can keep him productive for another three or four seasons and maybe give him a fighting shot by the time he actually retires.

Running Back

 

Running back is a wasteland in the modern NFL. The feature back is a thing of the past, with most teams scrapping together units out of interchangeable late round draft picks. Careers flash bright and die quickly, and it isn’t surprising to see only one current running back who has earned a place in Canton. There are a few others who deserve consideration, but I would be surprised if any make it.

Locks: Adrian Peterson

Frank Gore

Gore is one of three active running backs with over 10,000 career rushing yards. Only once since his rookie season has he failed to reach 1000 yards, though he has also exceeded 1300 only one time. He is reliable, if unspectacular, and his only hope of making the Hall of Fame is if he can put up heavy career numbers. He doesn’t have those yet, and with the track he’s on it’s hard to imagine he every will. 12,000 yards seems to be the necessary number for a running back to make the Hall of Fame. Right now he is 1600 yards short, a massive hill for a running back of his age to climb.

Steven Jackson

Jackson might be one of the most underappreciated players in NFL history. He toiled for years in the mediocrity of St Louis, piling up great season after great season without anyone seeming to notice. His only postseason appearance was during his rookie year when he was still second fiddle to Marshall Faulk. When he finally managed to free himself from the Rams he headed to perennial playoff contender Atlanta, only for them to fall into mediocrity. If you asked the average fan who the active leader in career rushing yards was, very few would come up with Jackson. But he is over 11,000 career rushing yards, in the top twenty all time. That’s only enough to put him in the category of Warrick Dunn, Corey Dillon, and Fred Taylor, not Hall of Fame caliber by any standards. He’s not a Hall of Famer, but he still deserves recognition as the third best running back of the past ten years, behind only Peterson and LaDainian Tomlinson.

Marshawn Lynch

Lynch came into the league the same year as Peterson, and over the past five years the two of them stand relatively alone in terms of consistent dominance. Lynch didn’t blossom until leaving Buffalo and coming to Seattle, and the first couple years have left him far behind Peterson in terms of career statistics. He does have a couple things the other running backs on this list do not: an iconic run and a Super Bowl ring. That won’t be enough to get him into the Hall of Fame if he retired today, and I doubt he’ll make it unless he plays another five strong seasons. I think it is more than likely that Peterson will be the only running back from his generation to end up in the Hall of Fame.

Offensive Line

We are at a strange point with the linemen in the league. So many great linemen have retired within the past seven years—Walter Jones, Orlando Pace, Jonathan Ogden, Alan Faneca, Steve Hutchinson—and we’re left with a bit of a generation gap. Most of the best offensive linemen in the league right now are relatively young. Thomas is actually older than most, even though this is only his eighth season. There are probably a lot of linemen in the league who will someday make it to Canton, but right now there are very few who have earned it already.

Locks: Joe Thomas, Logan Mankins

Jason Peters

I’ve never been a big fan of Peters. I think he’s been overrated for most of his career, at best an average left tackle. He’s big, and he’s athletic, but pass rushers get the edge on him far too frequently and easily. I don’t think he belongs anywhere near the Hall of Fame, but of current NFL lineman he’s probably as close as any. He’s been a starting left tackle in the league for a long time, and he has earned a spot on five All Pro teams. With the end of his career approaching I doubt that will be enough for him to make it, but he’ll at least come up in some conversations.

Jahri Evans

Longevity is the question with Evans. At his peak he was the best guard in the league, a crucial piece to a Super Bowl team. But his best lasted only five or six years, not nearly long enough for most offensive linemen. A late career resurgence is still possible, but if he retired today I don’t think his four All Pro appearances would be enough. For offensive linemen, peak value is outweighed heavily by sustained excellence.