NFL Midseason Review Part Two

On Wednesday I brought you my midseason review for the bottom sixteen teams in the league. Today I’m back with the top sixteen, breaking them into tiers based on how they have played so far and what I expect from them going forward. Don’t think too hard about the order of the teams within each tier. I certainly didn’t.

Top of the World

These are the best teams in the NFL. They are solid from top to bottom, and they have shown a level of consistent greatness throughout the season. None of these teams are undefeated, but most of their losses have come against similarly talented teams. Right now these are the safest bets to win the Super Bowl, and I would be shocked if any of these teams missed the playoffs.

Denver Broncos (6-2)

Even after their defeat last Sunday, I still believe the Broncos are the best team in the NFL. Peyton Manning is as great as ever, they have a superstar on defense in Von Miller, and the margins of their roster are filled with talented supporting players like Emmanuel Sanders, Aqib Talib, and Derek Wolfe. They’ve played the toughest schedule in the NFL to this point, and I would be stunned if they lost more than one or two games the remainder of the season.

There is a lot to like about the Broncos, but that doesn’t mean they are without their faults. Their running game is nonexistent, though it has improved slightly since substituting Ronnie Hillman for Montee Ball. The biggest concern is their offensive line. Ryan Clady has not been himself since returning from injury, and they have struggled to figure out what to do at right tackle since moving Orlando Franklin to left guard. Manning can cover up these woes against most teams, but they came back to bite them against the aggressive and creative defense of the Patriots last weekend. I think they will iron out a lot of these issues going forward, but it is something we definitely need to keep our eyes on.

New England Patriots (7-2)

Speaking of fixing issues on the offensive line, New England’s season turned around as soon as they found a way to protect Tom Brady. Other factors certainly helped—the health of Rob Gronkowski, the emergence of Brandon LaFell, general competence on defense—but the offensive line was their biggest issue during their early season struggles. It wasn’t a problem of talent as much as execution, and I don’t think there is any reason to expect it to regress to its early season levels.

Despite beating the Broncos over the weekend, I think the Patriots are still a level below their conference foes. This is a solid team from top to bottom, but they don’t excel in any area. Their flaws will be exposed somewhat over their upcoming stretch, five straight games against the Colts, Lions, Packers, Chargers, and Dolphins. They will probably lose at least two of those games, but they should be able to win enough to keep them alive until their final two against the Jets and the Bills. The Patriots will have to fight with Indianapolis for a first round bye, but they will have no worries about missing the playoffs.

Indianapolis Colts (6-3)

Andrew Luck is very good. That seems obvious, but I need to say it before I can move on to talking about the rest of the team. Luck has finally pushed his way into the company of the league’s elite quarterbacks, carrying an offense that is one of the most pass happy in the NFL. TY Hilton has emerged into a top ten wide receiver, and Ahmad Bradshaw has given the offense a dynamic threat out of the backfield. With an easy schedule going forward, I think it’s safe to say the Colts will coast to the playoffs on the strength of their offense.

But what I really need to talk about is their defense, one of the surprises of the season and the reason I have them in this top tier. Vontae Davis has been one of the five best cornerbacks in the league this season, and Bjoern Werner has emerged as a force after seemingly everyone had given up on him. The defense is what separates Indianapolis from other teams with elite quarterbacks—like the Packers and the Saints—and if it can hold up it will be a crucial part of any Super Bowl run.

Arizona Cardinals (7-1)

Even though they have the best record in the league, I’m a bit reluctant to put the Cardinals in the top tier. If there is a team due for a second half regression, this is it. Despite having the league’s best record they have only the seventh best point differential, a better indicator of future success than anything else. They have squeaked by in a number of their games, needing a fumbled snap to beat San Diego, a busted coverage and a close play in the endzone to beat Philadelphia, and a Tony Romo injury to beat the Cowboys. Carson Palmer is throwing interceptions at a rate one third his career average, and once he starts turning the ball over at a normal rate the Cardinals will have serious problems.

There is a lot to be worried about with this team, but there is also a lot to like, mostly on the defensive side of the ball. No team has dealt with more injuries on defense this year, and no team has been as utterly unphased by their losses. If defensive coordinator Todd Bowles doesn’t get a head coaching job after this season something is seriously wrong with the league. They’ve been one of the best defenses in the league despite the utter lack of a pass rush, an injury to their best player Calais Campbell, and the struggles of their second best player Patrick Peterson. No matter what happens to them the rest of the season, I feel confident in saying that their defense will be just fine.

A Bit Rough Around the Edges

These five teams are capable of playing at the same level as the teams in the top tier, but they have a few flaws that could hold them back in the long run. You’ll note that all five play in the NFC, and that one of these five will most likely be forced to stay home when the season ends. Any one of these teams could win the Super Bowl, and any one of these teams could miss the playoffs.

Seattle Seahawks (5-3)

Over the past few weeks the internet has been drowned by countless articles on the Seahawks, either questioning whether they’ve fallen apart or condemning others for asking such questions. Seattle has certainly had problems this season—both on the field and off it—but they still have a winning record and an inside track to a playoff spot. Their offense is performing better than it did last year (though it has slipped a little in recent weeks, perhaps hurt by the Harvin trade more than expected.)

If you want to get concerned, look at the defense. Seattle won the Super Bowl last season thanks to one of the best defenses in NFL history, a performance that could not possibly repeat. We expected them to slip slightly, but we did not anticipate the utter collapse of their pass defense. Some of the blame is rightfully falling on their notorious secondary, but most of the issue is across their defensive front. Seattle lost several players from their defensive line this offseason, and even though their best pass rushers remained they find themselves lacking the depth that was so valuable last season. This is the sort of thing they can’t just fix easily, and it will hurt them in the long run. Seattle is still a playoff team, but I’m not sure they have what it takes to repeat as Super Bowl champions.

Dallas Cowboys (6-3)

Two straight losses have knocked the Cowboys out of any conversation surrounding the league’s elite teams. The cracks are beginning to show, and even the return of Romo might not be enough to save them. Despite nine games worth of evidence, I still believe regression is inevitable from DeMarco Murray, whether through injury or simple ineffectiveness. Combine that with Romo’s lingering injury issues, and this could be an offense in significant trouble.

Any unexpected faltering from their offense will be a serious issue, because their defense is due to fall to pieces any day now. They have one of the worst pass rushes in the league and are in the bottom ten in nearly every per play statistic. Their defense has looked competent only thanks to its ability to stay off the field, which is unsustainable even if the offense stays productive. Sooner or later, the lack of talent on this defense is going to be exposed. With two games remaining against the Eagles and one against the Colts, I think it is likely we will see a true collapse from this side of the ball before the end of the season. They could still make the playoffs by winning their division, but I think that is mostly in the control of the next team on my list.

Philadelphia Eagles (6-2)

Philadelphia’s season rests in the hands of Mark Sanchez. Common football wisdom would suggest that they are screwed, but that might be selling Sanchez a bit short. As bad as his final season with the Jets was, I don’t think there is an appreciable difference between him and Nick Foles. Sanchez is a bit more prone to turnovers, but I think he is capable of producing dynamic plays in a way that Foles never has been.

A year ago this wouldn’t have been desired, but with the injuries to the offensive line, the decline of LeSean McCoy, and the loss of DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia no longer has the offensive tools to ride a mediocre quarterback. They have survived to this point thanks to some fantastic luck and an easy schedule, but it was clear that they were putting too much on Foles’s arm before he went down. As strange as it may sound, I think Sanchez might be better suited to lead them to the playoffs than Foles ever was. Of course, he could also torpedo their season and hand the division title to the Cowboys.

Detroit Lions (6-2)

Hiring Jim Caldwell as head coach has had the anticipated effect on Detroit’s offense. They can’t run the ball, they can’t throw the ball, and they are in the bottom ten in points per game. The injuries suffered by Reggie Bush and Calvin Johnson have certainly played a role in their offensive collapse, but no more so than the incompetence of their offensive line and the struggles of Matthew Stafford. They’ve made it this far thanks to a fantastic effort from their defense. They have one of the best defensive lines in the league, a top linebacker in DeAndre Levy, and an impressive young cornerback in Darius Slay.

The question going forward for the Lions is which unit will regress more towards preseason expectation. Will their defense falter as teams figure out how to stuff their penetrating line, or will their offense pick things up with the return of their best player? I expect we’ll see a little of both, but most of the attention will go to the defense’s failings as the Lions struggle through a difficult second half schedule. They’ve won a lot of close games so far this season, and their good luck isn’t going to last through games against the Dolphins, Cardinals, Patriots, and Packers. They are in good position for a wild card spot, but I think the next team is still the favorite to win the division.

Green Bay Packers (5-3)

As I said above, I think the Packers will end up winning the NFC North. They have a manageable schedule, good health across the board, and most importantly, Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is great, Jordy Nelson is great, and Eddie Lacy is starting to get on track. The three teams that have beaten them are all high quality opponents, and besides a questionable early season game against the Jets they have handled themselves against all lesser competition. I don’t anticipate them struggling that much against the Bears, the Vikings, the Falcons, the Bills, or the Buccaneers. Even if they slip up once, they should still be able to get enough wins to make the playoffs.

Many people point to the defense as the weak point of this team, but I’m going to go in a different direction. We know what we’re getting with Green Bay’s defense, a below average unit that can occasionally string enough competent series together to let their offense explode past the other team. The true issues arise when their offense fails to operate at a high level, and that happens when their line can’t protect Rodgers. David Bakhtiari has been about what you would expect from a former fourth round pick playing left tackle, and Bryan Bulaga hasn’t been much better on the right side. Rodgers handles himself well under pressure, but no quarterback can weather an interminable assault.

Who the Hell Are You?

Inconsistency defines the next four teams, all AFC contenders. At times this season they have looked like they belong in the highest ranks of the league, and at times they look like they are throwing their season away for a top ten pick. It is impossible to know which version we will get going forward, and it would be hard to bet on any of these teams making a consistent run through the playoffs to win a championship.

Kansas City Chiefs (5-3)

I did not expect much from Kansas City’s offense coming into the season, and after putting up only 10 points against Tennessee in Week One it seemed I was right. Since then however, they have managed to score consistently enough to win five games, despite having no touchdowns from wide receivers and an offensive line I would generously describe as terrible. The defense has certainly been a major factor in their success—Justin Houston is every bit the player he was before injuries slowed him last year—but their surprising effectiveness on offense is the main reason they’ve outperformed expectations.

Kansas City still has two games against the Raiders, but every other opponent they face currently has a winning record. Their offense is going to have to keep producing at a high level if they want to make it through this stretch, a prospect I remain skeptical of. The only above average player on their offense is Jamaal Charles, and even he couldn’t carry them down the stretch last season. Much as they did a year ago, Kansas City will fall off as the year goes on. And this time, their early season success will not be enough to let them coast into a playoff spot.

Miami Dolphins (5-3)

After a first week upset of New England it looked like Miami was for real. After back to back losses to the Bills and the Chiefs, it looked like they were ready to implode. Fortunately, they had a game against the Raiders to get themselves right before heading into their bye, and this has been a different team ever since. Their defense has stepped up its game, with Cameron Wake every bit as destructive as he’s been throughout his career. But the real changes have come on the offensive side of the ball as they have adopted a more wide open spread scheme to utilize the talent on their roster.

Three players need to be highlighted in order to understand their offensive turnaround. First is Lamar Miller, a talented runner who languished in the league for two years before finding him at home in the new system that arrived in Miami with offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, who came over from Philadelphia this offseason. Lazor has used Miller along with his athletic quarterback Ryan Tannehill to form one of the league’s most effective option schemes, and with the emergence of second round selection Jarvis Landry on the outside this is a suddenly dangerous offense. The improvements they have made over the past few weeks could be simple flashes in the pan, but I think it is likely they will continue to some extent for the rest of the season.

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)

Three weeks ago fans of every team watched together as the Steelers fell into an early hole against the Texans on Monday Night Football. After a narrow victory against the Jaguars and a blowout loss against the Browns, things were looking bleak for the Steelers. Then, in a span of less than two minutes, the Steelers scored 21 points, took the lead, and haven’t slowed down since. Ben Roethlisberger has shattered records over the past two games, their pass rush has torn apart offensive lines in Indianapolis and Baltimore, and people are starting to wonder if this might be one of the best teams in the league.

There is no way the Steelers will remain this hot, but there is reason to believe they will end up closer to how they are playing now than what they were earlier in the season. The addition of rookie receiver Martavis Bryant has turned around their red zone offense, and the resurgence of James Harrison and Brett Keisel has given them a dangerous front seven. They have games remaining against the Jets, the Titans, and the Falcons, and the road to the playoffs looks fairly smooth. There are still plenty of questions about this team, but if they get hot again they can make a run at the Super Bowl.

Cincinnati Bengals (5-3-1)

Cincinnati’s win total puts them among the elite in the league, but no other team ranked this high can match the humiliation of their defeats. They were utterly thrashed by the Patriots on Sunday Night Football in Week Five, they had perhaps the single worst offensive performance of the season three weeks ago against the Colts, and just last night they were embarrassed at home by the Browns. The sheer scope of their defeats makes up for their two quality wins over Baltimore. Besides that, their résumé is as pedestrian as it gets. Their three other victories have come against the Falcons, the Titans, and the Jaguars, teams with five combined wins.

The return of AJ Green will be a major help down the stretch, and their offense should improve as they figure out how to handle the running back duo of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard. But the biggest improvement they need will be their offensive line, and even if that comes together they will be subject to the ups and downs of their mediocre quarterback. Their defense definitely isn’t what it was last year, but it is good enough to win them a couple games down the stretch. They will be in contention for the division title at the end of the year, and even if they lose out on that they have a shot at the wild card.

Knife’s Edge

Quality teams, these three are on the outside looking in right now thanks to some extremely bad fortune. The NFL is incredibly top heavy this year, and it is going to be difficult to sneak into the playoffs with a mediocre record. Each of these teams already has five losses, which means they can only afford one or two more bad games if they want to make it into the postseason.

Baltimore Ravens (5-4)

Baltimore is one of the five best teams in the AFC, but bad luck has dropped them to the bottom of their division and the outside edges of the wild card race. They could easily have won either of the games against Cincinnati, but instead they lost two close division games that will loom large as tiebreakers come into play. When they have won they have done so in impressive fashion, which is how they find themselves sitting with the NFL’s third best point differential.

As good as Baltimore is, they’ve left themselves with quite a hill to climb. 5-4 leaves them behind eight other teams in their conference, with only two opportunities to face those teams and hand them a loss. It isn’t all bad, as they still have games against Tennessee and Jacksonville, but they also have to face off against San Diego, Houston, and Cleveland, teams mired in the same mess at the edge of the playoffs. The odds are stacked against them, but they have a top ten defense and a top half offense. They should be able to fight their way into playoff contention.

San Diego Chargers (5-4)

A few weeks ago there were some who argued that the Chargers were the best team in the NFL. After three straight losses, it’s starting to look like their early season success was more the product of an easy schedule than anything else. Of their five wins three have come against the Jaguars, the Jets, and the Raiders. The victory over Seattle looks increasingly less impressive as the Seahawks muddle through their early season woes, and last week’s shutout loss to the Dolphins was an embarrassment of a performance.

I discussed the Chargers quite a bit a couple weeks ago, questioning how long their success would hold up. I thought everything would work out fine for them, with their running game recovering even as Philip Rivers and their defense regressed. That has not been the case, and those two facets have fallen back even farther than I expected. Their bye week came at the perfect time, because they need to get things right as fast as possible. Their next two games are against the Rams and the Raiders, and they are must wins if the Chargers want any hope of staying alive for the playoffs. A final five stretch of Baltimore, New England, Denver, San Francisco, and Kansas City will likely doom them no matter what, but if they capture some of their early season magic again they might be able to snag the last wild card spot.

San Francisco 49ers (4-4)

Everything that could have gone wrong for San Francisco (short of an injury to Colin Kaepernick) has gone wrong. Thin in the heart of their defense thanks to the loss of Navarro Bowman, they got even thinner when Patrick Willis went down with a sprained toe. Their running game has had the issues we expected, but their newly deep receiving corps has failed to pick up the slack thanks to the struggles of the guys at the top. Most troubling (and most perplexing) their offensive line has been an absolute train wreck after being one of the best in the league the past few seasons.

The 49ers are in a bad place, but they aren’t completely screwed. Both Willis and Bowman will be returning from their injuries in the next few weeks, as will suspended Aldon Smith. Their passing game should jell better as the season goes on, and their offensive line is too talented to continue to play this poorly. Most importantly, they still have two games against the Seahawks and one against the Cardinals, ample opportunity to get back in the division race. The 49ers aren’t dead, but they no longer have any margin for error.