2014 Midseason Review Part One

Every team has now played at least half of their scheduled games, and it's time to see where everything lies. To do this I've divided the teams into tiers, ranking them based on how they've done so far and how I expect them to do the rest of the season. Today I look at the bottom sixteen teams in the league, with the top half coming on Friday.

Hope is Fleeting

These teams wouldn’t be in the playoffs if the season ended today, but they are close enough to keep them hungry and excited for the second half of the season. Most importantly, they are close enough that they will be disappointed when reality inevitably sets in. These teams have performed above their abilities the first half of the season, and they are due to fall back to Earth.

Cleveland Browns (5-3)

Cleveland is currently ahead of their division foes in Baltimore in the standings, so it seems a bit unfair to have them down here while I save the Ravens for the second half of my midseason review. The Browns have definitely outperformed expectations to this point, in a way no one really expected. Prior to the season any hopes for Cleveland depended on the emergence of their promising defense or superstar play from Johnny Manziel. They have received neither this season, surviving instead based on a surprising offensive performance on the back of Brian Hoyer and their revamped running game.

There is another factor that has been crucial to their success, and that is their schedule. Three of their five victories have come over the Buccaneeers, the Raiders, and the Titans. They provided the Jaguars with their only win in one of the most embarrassing performances of the season thus far. Down the stretch they still need to play Baltimore, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati twice. The return of Josh Gordon will help, but they need their defense to step up if they want to make a serious run at the playoffs. With the talent they have this isn’t impossible, but I think they will end up having a very disappointing second half to the season.

Buffalo Bills (5-3)

If the playoffs started today, Buffalo would miss out on the last wild card spot only through tiebreakers. Their performance over the first half of the season has been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL, and most people have spent the past six weeks waiting for the other shoe to drop. Buffalo has been carried by a phenomenal defense, but it isn’t dominant enough to make up for an offense that doesn’t appear to have anything beyond Sammy Watkins.

Reality hasn’t set in yet for the Bills, but it is coming. They needed overtime to defeat the Bears, three missed field goals to beat the Lions, and several miraculous completions to top the Vikings in the final minute. That sort of luck can’t hold out forever, especially with a challenging schedule coming up. Over the next two weeks they play the Chiefs and the Dolphins, two of the teams tied with them for the final playoff spot. Their season ends with three of their final four games against the Broncos, the Packers, and the Patriots. They’ve had a fun run to this point, but they will need several more miracles if they want to end the longest playoff drought in the NFL.

Houston Texans (4-5)

Houston’s offense has been better than expected thanks to strong performances from Arian Foster and DeAndre Hopkins, but it has been held back by the mediocrity of Ryan Fitzpatrick and the aging of Andre Johnson. Their defense has been the true disappointment however. Brian Cushing is a shell of his former self, and Jadeveon Clowney has played in only two games so far this season. JJ Watt is the best defensive player in football, but no single player can carry a defense on his own.

Houston was a popular choice as a bounceback team this year, in large part because of their schedule. They had one of the easiest lineups in the league, and a year after Kansas City went from first overall pick to the playoffs riding a similar easy track, it seemed very possible that we would see the same thing again. Unfortunately, it seems Houston’s schedule wasn’t as easy as it looked before the season. With more losses than wins and games remaining against Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Baltimore, it seems highly unlikely that Houston will make a playoff push, barring a surprise breakout from Ryan Mallett.

NFC South

The NFC South deserves a category all to itself. This division has won a total of two games in the past month. Both were by the Saints, and one was over their division foe Carolina. The worst division in football, league rules still mandate that one of these teams will make the playoffs.

New Orleans Saints (4-4)

The Saints probably don’t deserve to be lumped into the same category as these other teams. They got off to a rocky start to the season, but the talent is still there on this roster. Drew Brees is still one of the best quarterbacks in the league, Cameron Jordan is still a force on the defensive line, and a healthy Mark Ingram has been one of the best running backs in the league this season. If it wasn’t for three devastating last minute losses against the Falcons, Browns, and Lions, the Saints would be sitting near the top of the NFC.

New Orleans is the prohibitive favorite to win the NFC South, but right now their record precludes them from being in the same conversation as the best teams in the NFC. That doesn’t mean they won’t belong there at the end of the season. Their defense is still not great, but it isn’t the mess it was at the beginning of the season. They have an easy path to the playoffs and plenty of time to iron out any rough edges. They probably don’t have a shot of earning a first round bye, but I could still see them making a deep playoff run.

Carolina Panthers (3-5-1)

After a promising start to the season, Carolina has ended up about where most people expected them. They haven’t won a game since beating the Bears a month ago, and the offense that looked promising early in the season has fallen back to earth. Injuries have crippled their offensive line, not that it was playing particularly well to begin with. And their defense shows no signs that it can come anywhere near the dominating force it was last season. I can point to only two positives from their season thus far: Kelvin Benjamin and Cam Newton.

The Panthers are not a good football team, and if they manage to make the playoffs it will be almost entirely because of their schedule. Over the remaining seven games they play Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Cleveland, and Atlanta twice. All of those games are winnable, and if they get lucky they can pull out enough to sneak ahead of the Saints. I’m not saying it’s likely, just that it’s possible. Unlike the next two teams.

Atlanta Falcons (2-6)

Many people were predicting Atlanta to bounce back and make the playoffs this year. I wasn’t one of them (gratuitous back pat) but I expected them to be better than this. This team looks exactly like the one that went 4-12 last season, and they are on pace to match that record identically. Their offense consists entirely of Matt Ryan throwing to Julio Jones, and on defense their pass rush has somehow gotten worse since last season. Exciting talent dots this team, but they simply don’t have the league average players necessary to fill the margins.

The talent on this roster is still intriguing, enough that I wouldn’t be shocked to see them make a small run down the stretch. But with six losses already I have trouble seeing them making it to the playoffs. Their victory over New Orleans earlier in the year looms large as a tiebreaker, but to even make it to that point they would need several players to step up across their roster, players who have shown no signs of being able to do so yet during their careers.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7)

Someone this weekend told me that he wasn’t sure whether it seemed like Tampa Bay had too many victories or too few. There have definitely been times this year when Tampa Bay has looked like far and away the worst team in the league. One of Atlanta’s two victories was an absolute demolition of the Buccaneers on prime time, and Tampa Bay suffered a similar embarrassment at the hands of the Ravens. But in their other games they have held up surprisingly well, even against quality opponents like Cleveland, New Orleans, and Pittsburgh (their lone victory.)

It is maddening for any true football fan to watch this team fail so wretchedly. On the defensive side of the ball they still have two of the best players in the league in Lavonte David and Gerald McCoy, and both are playing phenomenally well despite their team crumbling around them. It is a shame to see such talent wasted, to watch such incredible players become increasingly frustrated as they regularly make dominant plays. Though, admittedly, it is sometimes fun to watch them unleash their frustration on helpless opponents like Cleveland’s Nick McDonald.

Alive in Name Only

Mathematically these teams still have a shot, but the games aren’t played with calculators. A few wins here or there aren’t enough to hide that these are thoroughly mediocre teams, and in all likelihood they will play just as poorly during the second half of the season as they did during the first.

Washington Redskins (3-6)

There has been plenty that has gone wrong with Washington so far this year. The loss of Brian Orakpo has hindered their pass rush, the one thing to like about their defense coming into this season. Pierre Garcon has been disappointing after a career year last season. Alfred Morris is averaging only 4.0 yards per carry, well below the mark of 4.7 over his first two seasons. But in the end, it comes down to their quarterback situation.

I don’t know what to make of the RGIII situation anymore. It is clear that their offense works best with him at the helm. Kirk Cousins makes some plays, but he turns the ball over way too frequently. Colt McCoy is still Colt McCoy, a decent backup option who isn’t dynamic enough to survive in the NFL. But if Griffin can’t stay healthy, it’s going to be hard for him to develop into anything reliable. They need to stick with him for now, both because of the cost they paid to get him and the lack of a better option. But it is hard to be optimistic about him, or about anything on this Redskins team.

Minnesota Vikings (4-5)

I’ve been a Vikings fan since 1998, and I can say that this season has brought me something absolutely new. For the first time I can remember, Minnesota’s defense is significantly better than their offense. The changes wrought by Mike Zimmer have been drastic and immediate, aided by the explosion of young talent like Harrison Smith, Xavier Rhodes, Anthony Barr, and Sharrif Floyd. Somehow even Everson Griffen is living up to his contract, helping power the defense that has carried this team to four wins.

Their offense is another matter. Over a stretch of three games against the Lions, the Bills, and the Buccaneers the Vikings never allowed more than 17 points, yet they managed to win only one of these games. Teddy Bridgewater and the running game have been inconsistent, but most of their struggles stem from the offensive line. Matt Kalil has been utter garbage, Vlad Ducasse has been bad even for a backup, and—most damning of all—Charlie Johnson has been Charlie Johnson. In the second half last week they actually managed to provide decent protection, and their offense hummed along to the tune of four touchdowns and a victory. If they can get their offensive line fixed, they might be able to make a push for the playoffs. As it is, I think they will have to settle for seven wins and some hope for the future.

St Louis Rams (3-5)

St Louis has a couple quality wins on their season, and that’s about the best they could have ever hoped for. This was never a team destined for playoff contention, and the early season struggles of their defensive line drove a final nail into their coffin. Even the surprising competence of Austin Davis was never anything more than a mild distraction from a below average team. 3-5 seems like the perfect record for the talent on this roster, and it would be a shock if they didn’t come close to matching it over the second half of the season.

The Rams are looking forward to next season, as they have been every year for the past decade. The fact that I’m not hearing more people calling for the heads of their coaches and GM is perplexing. They scored a king’s ransom in the RGIII deal, but that netted them a bunch of players who are barely holding on to starting roles. Time and time again they have failed to develop offensive talent. I think it’s time for a new start in St Louis. Both Jeff Fisher and Les Snead need to go this offseason, and they need to hope that whoever they bring in can finally make something of this talented but undeveloped roster.

Chicago Bears (3-5)

Before the season I wrote that the Bears had one of the most talented starting units in the NFL but could not risk any injuries that would expose their lack of depth. Injuries have certainly hurt them this season—particularly at wide receiver, offensive line, and linebacker—but that hasn’t been the main reason for their struggles. The offense that was so explosive last year has become disturbingly pedestrian, a series of useless screen passes and checkdowns. It feels strange to say this about one of the best players in the league, but they are probably overutilizing Matt Forte.

If Chicago has any chance of getting back into the playoff picture, it will be on the shoulders of Jay Cutler. That statement is obviously terrifying for any Bears fan, but despite his failings Cutler is still a quarterback capable of carrying a team to heights it wouldn’t otherwise be able to reach. Their remaining schedule is daunting, and to pull off enough upsets to make the playoffs they will need a lot of luck and some high variance strategies. Let Cutler chuck the ball around, hope that Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall can make some plays on the outside, and they might be able to pull this season together.

New York Giants (3-5)

A month ago it looked like the Giants might actually be for real. After a disappointing pair of losses against quality opponents to start the season, they won three straight against Houston, Washington, and Atlanta. But after three noncompetitive losses (not to mention the recent struggles of Houston and Atlanta) I think it’s fair to say that we know what this Giants team is. Their offense and their defense are both decidedly mediocre. Neither unit is an embarrassment, but neither is good enough to make up for the other’s shortcomings.

It is hard to see much to be optimistic about with the Giants. First round pick Odell Beckham has been impressive, but beyond that they don’t have anyone who looks ready to step up. Their next three games are against the Seahawks, the 49ers, and the Cowboys. At the end of this stretch they will likely be well out of playoff contention, and even a series of wins against the Jaguars, the Titans, the Redskins, and the Rams will not be enough to give them a shot going into the final week of the season. This team has been getting progressively worse over the past few seasons, and it is probably time for a total teardown.

The Walking Dead

The bottom of the barrel. The worst of the worst. The teams everyone loves to see on their schedule. There is no chance that any of these teams makes the playoffs this year. In fact, there’s a very good chance all four of these teams end up with top five picks in the draft. At this point the only relevance they will have over the second half of the season will be the one or two games where they don’t roll over and let their playoff bound opponents earn an easy win.

Tennessee Titans (2-6)

Tennessee has as many wins on the season as the other three teams in this category combined, but I don’t think they should be holding their head particularly high. One of those wins came over the next team I’ll get to, and the other came against Kansas City during the first week of the season, in a game looking increasingly bizarre as the year goes on. This one flash in the pan was enough to get Titans fans briefly excited for the year, but they didn’t need the entirety of the next seven games to crush their hopes.

We always knew Tennessee’s offense was going to be a mess. Barring a breakout by Bishop Sankey, their running back corps is as uninspiring as we expected. The quarterback position has played out according to script—a few miserable games of Jake Locker before an injury, followed by a few uninteresting games of Charlie Whitehurst, now entering the mildly intriguing Zach Mettenberger experiment. The offensive line and receiving corps have been disappointing, but the failure to develop the defense has been the true catastrophe. The Titans still have some young players to keep your eyes on down the stretch, and I wouldn’t put it past them to win three or four games over the second half of the season. But no matter what happens they’ll end up circling the bottom of the AFC, likely sinking into position for a top ten selection.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8)

The Jaguars are every bit as bad as the other three teams in this category, but at least they are fun to watch and talk about. The young skill position trio of Denard Robinson, Allen Hurns, and Allen Robinson have added a spark to their offense. Blake Bortles is good for two wretched interceptions a game, but he makes more exciting throws than any of the other rookie quarterbacks. Their pass rush is actually very good, occasionally covering for the disaster that is the rest of their defense.

Last year at this point in the season the Jaguars were 0-8, but they managed to win half of their remaining games to wind up a respectable 4-12. I could see a similar run down the stretch this season. Their games have gotten steadily more competitive as the season has gone along, and their young talent will only continue to improve. The schedule is a bit concerning, but I think they could pull off a couple of upsets and prove a spoiler for several playoff contenders. They will still end up with a top five selection (which they desperately need) but this is definitely a team on the rise.

New York Jets (1-8)

I have a confession to make. I actually considered picking the Jets to make the playoffs this season. I know, I know, but it was a reasonable mistake. I was caught up in the flash of their offense and the brief promise shown by Geno Smith down the stretch late last season. Now nine games into the season, I think it’s safe to say that was definitely not a sign of things to come. The talent across this roster is a problem, but Smith bears most of the responsibility for killing their season. He can’t protect the ball, he can’t make plays with the ball, and if it wasn’t for a Week One victory over Oakland the Jets would be winless with more than half the season behind them.

The Jets are in desperate need of a major teardown. They’ve gotten progressively worse every year with Rex Ryan at the helm, and anyone who continues to defend his abilities as a head coach needs to have their head examined. They have completely ignored their offense since he took over. Even as that side of the ball has been the clear weakness of the team, they have still spent their past six first round selections on defensive players. There is no young talent to like on their offense, and it isn’t going to get any better until they bring in someone willing to invest in building an offense.

Oakland Raiders (0-8)

At last we reach the bottom of the barrel. The team I (and pretty much everyone else) assumed would be the worst in the league this season, living up to expectations through the first eight weeks. To this point Raiders fans have endured a strange mix of blowouts at the hands of the Texans and the Dolphins alternated with close losses to teams like the Patriots and the Seahawks. One of these days they will get lucky and win a game—these aren’t the 2008 Lions—but anything more than that might prove tricky. They have the most difficult remaining schedule in the league—the Rams, 49ers, Bills, and Chargers sprinkled throughout two games against each Denver and Kansas City.

Yet despite all of this, Raiders fans have to feel somewhat good about this season. Derek Carr has looked competent through stretches, though that won’t preclude them from taking a quarterback next year if they end up changing their general manager as well as their head coach. Khalil Mack has been one of the five best rookies in the league so far, a great relief for a team that has missed so consistently in the first round over recent years. They’re even receiving contributions from intriguing lesser known quantities like Mychal Rivera and Andre Holmes. The Raiders are still two or three years away from competing, but for the first time in a decade they actually have some pieces to build around.