We
have only a couple days to go until the NFL season finally kicks off, and I am
so ready to give away my life to football once again. I’ve spent the past month
breaking down every team in the NFL division by division, giving my thoughts on
what the upside and downside for each of these teams is. If you’re curious,
these posts are linked below.
But
now it’s time to make actual predictions, to go out on a limb and then saw it
off behind me. So here are my final predictions for the record of each NFL
team, which of course will include my playoff fields and my winner of next
year’s first overall pick. I’ll be back with another post tomorrow that
will include my final Super Bowl prediction, as well as predictions for all the
major awards.
AFC
AFC South
Houston Texans: 10-6
Indianapolis Colts: 8-8
Tennessee Titans: 6-10
Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-10
There
is always some stuff that shifts around between when I write my division previews
and when the season actually starts, but I don’t know if I can remember any
division that has flipped around as drastically as the AFC South this year.
Obviously the retirement of Andrew Luck completely changes the fortunes of the
Colts, the team I otherwise would have picked to win the division. But even the
Texans weren’t content to just sit and let the division come to them. Instead
they made two major moves this past Saturday. First they made a charitable
donation to the Seahawks in the form of Jadeveon Clowney, and then they
acquired Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills from Miami at the cost of two future
first round picks plus a second rounder. I don’t think they actually made the
team better in the short term, and they certainly didn’t help themselves in the
long term, but they’re still the favorites to win the division.
The
Colts aren’t as screwed as losing a top tier quarterback would make you think.
Jacoby Brissett has earned the opportunity to show off as a starter, and the
rest of the roster is still loaded with young talent. They have a chance to win
the division, and I think they’ll take a run at the Wild Card, ultimately missing
out by a couple games. The other two teams in the division will certainly help
them along, as Tennessee and Jacksonville both remain mediocre, with the latter
having a little more upside but not in a way that will significantly affect the
outcome of the season.
AFC East
New England Patriots: 12-4
New York Jets: 7-9
Buffalo Bills: 6-10
Miami Dolphins: 2-14
On
the other side of things, Miami used this weekend to put aside any doubts that
they were officially all in on the tank. They had maybe three players on their
roster that I would call above average starters, and they just traded two of
them away. The haul they got in return makes this an easy decision to make, but
there is no question this team is the worst in the league now, and I have them
easily claiming the first pick. And as an aside, I have to feel for Josh Rosen,
who is now on a second straight team committed to ruining his future (arguably
even a third, if you want to look back at the coaching staff during his time at
UCLA).
The
rest of the division remains as predictable as ever. The Patriots will coast to
a division title and likely earn home field in the playoffs. The Jets will make
a run at a Wild Card spot but will fall short at the end of the year, while the
Bills will make some genuine but ultimately meaningless forward progress. And
these three teams will continue to scrap to build something in preparation for
finally being freed from Tom Brady, as they have done for the past decade.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs: 12-4
Los Angeles Chargers: 11-5
Oakland Raiders: 6-10
Denver Broncos: 6-10
This
division is pretty much unchanged from a season ago. The top two teams will
battle for supremacy, while the bottom two will scramble with no real long term
plans. Joe Flacco is certainly not the answer at quarterback in
Denver, and I expect at some point this year we’ll see Drew Lock, likely with
little success. The Broncos defense could get a boost with the arrival of Vic
Fangio, but they were already very good, and it hasn’t meant much over the past
few seasons. Oakland is harder to predict, and this year will be a major test
for Derek Carr, to prove whether or not he is worth keeping around. I have no idea what
is going through the heads of Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock, so it wouldn’t stun
me if they decided to double down on him this offseason, but I do think it’s
more likely they decide to reset with their own guy in a year’s time.
The
Chargers and the Chiefs both have Super Bowl aspirations, and it will be
fascinating to watch how this race plays out. It would be shocking and
disappointing if either of these teams missed the playoffs, but shocking and
disappointing has kind of been the Chargers’ thing for a while now. Kansas City
feels like a safer bet both to take the division and to challenge the Patriots.
But a part of me does feel like we saw the best case scenario for the Chiefs a
year ago, while the ceiling for the Chargers might be a little higher if
everything works out in their favor (it won’t, because they’re the Chargers).
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers: 11-5
Baltimore Ravens: 10-6
Cleveland Browns: 8-8
Cincinnati Bengals: 4-12
Finally,
a division that doesn’t feel like a foregone conclusion. Let’s dispense with
the easy part, and say that the Bengals will finish at the bottom of this
division. They’re still a year out from being able to totally tear things down,
and right now they’re coasting on a roster that has proven it doesn’t have what
it takes to compete. Which leaves the top three teams to fight it out for the
division, a battle I think the Steelers will win.
Pittsburgh
isn’t the team that they’ve been over the past few years, and I don’t think
they have what it takes to compete with the top of the AFC. But inside
the North division, they still have the best quarterback and a proven head
coach, which will make all the difference. I don’t trust Lamar Jackson to be
consistent enough to put up points, even though I think Baltimore’s defense is
still enough to earn them a playoff spot. As for Cleveland, I expect things to
be a bit rockier that most people think with a rookie head coach and a second
year quarterback. Their raw talent will keep them in the running and could
power them over the top, but I think they’ll have to settle for the race for a
Wild Card spot, which I think they will ultimately fall short of.
NFC
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NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: 13-3
New Orleans Saints: 11-5
Carolina Panthers: 8-8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 5-11
The
Saints are the favorite in this division, but I think this is the year it all
comes together for the Falcons. Last season was ruined by injuries on the
defensive side and some tough early losses, but they were still a good team,
especially with their offense out on the field. I think the Saints are a thinner
roster, and I expect them to slide back some as their young defense hits some
bumps and their offense struggles with depth. Matt Ryan put up elite stats a
year ago, and I expect him to do the same in 2019, this year with the win/loss
results to get him back into the MVP conversation.
Carolina
isn’t at the same level of the top two teams in the division, and it would take
a lot for them to get into that conversation. But with Cam Newton healthy and
Christian McCaffrey fully integrated into their offense, they can make a run at
being the third playoff representative from this division. I don’t think they
have the talent at all three levels on defense to make it there, but they’ll be
alive late in the season. The same can’t be said for Tampa Bay, who will
struggle in their first year under Bruce Arians due to the continued ineptitude of their defense.
And, fair or not, that will likely mean the end of the Jameis Winston era.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles: 12-4
Dallas Cowboys: 8-8
Washington Redskins: 5-11
New York Giants: 4-12
Last
season was a disappointment for the Eagles coming off of their Super Bowl
title, but they still managed to sneak into the playoffs and steal a victory.
They got off to a rough start last year thanks to Carson Wentz still recovering
from the previous season’s injury, and with him at full strength I expect them
to run away with the division this year. I don’t buy the MVP talk around
Wentz—the MVP hype he got two years ago was misguided and based on some flukes
that aren’t likely to recur—but he’s competent enough to ride what might be the most
talented roster in the league to a first round playoff bye.
The
rest of the division is a bit messier. The Cowboys will bounce back from the
highs their defense achieved a season ago, and they’ll end up in the middle of
the NFC mess. Washington and New York, on the other hand, will endure some
pretty grisly seasons that will only get worse as they inevitably turn to their
unprepared rookie quarterbacks. These two teams are in position to bottom out
and try to rebuild in the next couple of years. (Which, as an aside, makes
Washington’s refusal to even consider trading Trent Williams bizarre. He
remains adamant he is never going to play for this team again, and if Houston
was willing to give up two first round picks for Laremy Tunsil, how much would
they have been willing to give for the much better player Williams?)
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks: 12-4
Los Angeles Rams: 11-5
San Francisco 49ers: 5-11
Arizona Cardinals: 5-11
Like
the Saints in the South, I expect the other team from the NFC Championship
matchup to fall to second place in the division. The Rams lost some important
pieces on their offensive line, and the health of Todd Gurley is still a major
question. If they don’t have those pieces, life is going to be a lot more
difficult for Jared Goff, and the offense won’t be able to run away with games
as easily as they did before. Against a Seahawks team that is trending up and
just added a top notch defensive lineman, I think they suffer a pair of defeats
and lose the division as a result.
The
Cardinals and the 49ers finish the season with pretty much identical results
despite being at very different points in their rebuild. San Francisco will be
frustrated as their season flounders three years into the tenures of John Lynch
and Kyle Shanahan, as Jimmy Garoppolo finally gets enough time on the field to
show that he doesn’t have what it takes to be an elite NFL starter. Their
offseason will be tumultuous, possibly with major changes at the top. On the
other hand, the Cardinals will be just fine as long as they see some
functionality from their rookie head coach and quarterback combo. They have a
lot more work to do, but this season won’t lead to another total reset like
last year did.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers: 10-6
Minnesota Vikings: 9-7
Chicago Bears: 9-7
Detroit Lions: 5-11
This
division is weird because while I like the three teams at the top, I don’t love
any of them. All three of the Packers, Vikings, and Bears enter the season with
big hopes, but I only have one of them making the postseason, with the Packers
emerging from the scrum with the division title. I don’t think Aaron Rodgers
will magically rediscover his MVP form, but he’ll be closer than he’s been over
the past few years. And they’ve found enough talent in the past few drafts to
solidify the rest of the roster around him and power past the other two flawed
teams in this division.
The
defenses of Chicago and Minnesota are elite, but I still have serious concerns
about both offenses. Minnesota has thrown just about everything at their
offensive line over the past few years, and only a few things have stuck,
leaving them with a unit that still struggles to open holes in the running game
and to keep the quarterback upright against elite pass rushes. And for the
Bears, the big question is still Mitchell Trubisky, who still has the potential
to throw games away and will likely have more put on his shoulders this year.
In the end I expect this division to come down to the six games played between
these teams, and head to head I’m still going to put my money on Rodgers over
Kirk Cousins or Trubisky.
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