Earlier
this week I broke down the NFC South, and now it’s time to move over to the
other conference. The AFC South isn’t as dreary as it was a couple years ago,
but it still might be the least interesting division in football (I’ll get to
the two possible challengers with the East divisions next week). But stick with
me on this one, because there’s at least some forward momentum among the teams here, starting with a couple
of exciting quarterbacks in offenses that are slowly coming together.
Indianapolis Colts
The Upside
The
Colts made the playoffs last season thanks to a second half run powered by
their star quarterback and a stellar rookie class. They had a rookie make the
All-Pro team on both sides of the ball, plus a quality starting right tackle
that helped stabilize an offensive line that has been shaky for years. These
players now all have a year of experience under their belt, and they should
only be better this season. And the veterans will likely step up as well, as
most offenses don’t really get going until they’re in their second season in a new system.
On
paper this team still looks a notch below the other top teams in the AFC, but I
don’t think it would shock anyone if they took a massive leap forward this
year. They have a lot of young players in key roles who haven’t quite showed
what they are capable of yet—Tyquan Lewis, Quincy Wilson, Malik Hooker—and if
they get contributions from these high upside options, they can surprise some
people and make a deep run into the postseason.
The Downside
Development
is rarely linear in the NFL. The Colts as a team improved as the season went
along a year ago, and it’s easy to fall into the trap of interpolating that to
2019. Their young players should be better in year two than in year one,
because that’s how progress works.
Except,
that isn’t always the case. Players hit sophomore slumps. Injuries take a toll that the Colts mostly avoided a year ago. They still have to be nervous about their lack
of weapons in the passing game, and their defensive line is mostly stuck
together from spare parts they scrounged up from the free agent trash heap over
the past few years. The future is still bright for this team, and I think in
2021 and 2022 they’ll be among the favorites in the AFC. But there are always
rough patches along the road, and it might take a year of struggling before
they are really ready to make a run.
Player to Watch – Marlon Mack, RB
The
Colts had more free agency money to work with than any other team, and they
more or less did nothing with it. They added Devin Funchess and Jack Doyle on
offense, while bringing in Justin Houston on defense. They didn’t even sniff
around the biggest name in free agency, running back Le’Veon Bell, who they had
been linked with since the moment it became clear he would be available. They
seemed content to roll into 2019 with Mack as their feature back, which is good
because they don’t have much else in terms of options.
Mack
was solid a year ago. In twelve games he put up 908 yards on the ground, and
hopefully he can maintain that sort of efficiency in a larger role this year.
Because every other healthy running back on their roster has just over 1000 yards
for their careers combined, making Mack with his 1266 over two seasons by far
their most experienced runner. He needs to expand his role in the passing game
(he had only 17 catches for 103 yards a year ago), and he needs to prove he can
handle the pounding of a full season, otherwise the Colts are going to become
very one dimensional on offense.
Houston Texans
The Upside
Like Indianapolis, Houston is another team powered by their flashy names.
Deshaun Watson throwing the ball to DeAndre Hopkins. JJ Watt and Jadeveon
Clowney terrorizing quarterbacks and destroying running games from either side.
And like Indianapolis, there isn’t much else to fill out Houston’s roster.
These two teams will be neck and neck for the division all year long.
I
put the Texans second here because I don’t think they have the same upside as
Indianapolis. They don’t have nearly as many young players they can look to for
a leap forward. Their roster is stretched a bit thin for talent—part of the
cost of leaping up in the draft to acquire their star quarterback—and even if they do pull out the division, I think this lack of depth will keep them from being anything more than a quick, easy out when the
playoffs come around.
The Downside
We
need to talk about the offensive line. Somebody needs to talk about the
offensive line, because the front office of the Texans sure as hell isn’t. They
nearly got Watson murdered a year ago, and their attempts at a solution were to
go out and sign Matt Kalil—who may have a personal vendetta against talented
quarterbacks after brutalizing Teddy Bridgewater and Cam Newton—and drafting a
raw developmental tackle out of Alabama State.
This
offensive line is going to kill them sooner or later, and the only question is
which of those it will be. If they get off to a rough start to the year, things
could fall apart very quickly. I don’t trust Bill O’Brien to manage a team when
things aren’t going smooth, and I could see this team mailing it in down the
stretch if they fall a few games behind Indianapolis. I think the downside here
is a lot lower than people realize, and I wouldn’t be stunned to see this team
selecting in the top ten or even the top five next year.
Player to Watch – Jonathan Joseph, CB
I
want to talk about this because it’s insane that Joseph is still around. He was
a first round draft pick in 2006. His career started a year before Calvin
Johnson, Joe Thomas, Patrick Willis, and Darrelle Revis. Players have entered
the league, put together Hall of Fame careers, and then walked off into
retirement, and all the while he’s just been playing an excellent cornerback
for mostly anonymous teams.
The
Texans have invested a lot of resources in trying to build a secondary around
Joseph during his time there, and they may have finally done it. Free agent
signings Tashaun Gipson and Bradley Roby aren’t stars by any means, but they
are proven veterans who will solidify the back end of this defense. Add in
second year safety Justin Reid—coming off a stellar rookie season—and this has
the makings of a competent secondary, which is all they really need with the
dominant players stacked up along their front.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Upside
Two
years ago Jacksonville made it all the way to the AFC Championship on the
strength of an elite defense. They’ve had a few pieces turnover on both sides
of the ball, but the only major change has been moving on from Blake Bortles at
quarterback, which is far from a bad thing. With Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye on
the back end and Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue chasing down quarterbacks
on the front, their defense still has the ability to carry them in any game.
Do
I think they can carry them through a season and deep into the playoffs like
they did in 2017? No, I don’t. I think that was a freakish convergence of
factors—a weak AFC, a string of injuries to star offensive players across the
league, and a lot of turnover luck. Jacksonville might be able to compete in
the division, but the rest of the AFC has leapt forward over the past two
years, while the best you can say about the Jaguars is that they’ve stagnated.
The Downside
The
good news for Jacksonville: they finally realized Bortles is not a good
quarterback. The bad news: they’re now committed to believing that Nick Foles
is a good quarterback. And while he’s certainly an improvement at that
position, his inconsistency over the course of his career leaves a lot of room
for things to go wrong. The Jaguars have a lot less talent on offense than he
had to work with in Philadelphia, and he is going to have to step up his
performance to get the results they’re paying for.
The
Jaguars proved last year they can’t win every game with their defense. They
have to have something offensively, and I’m not sure where it’s going to come
from. Leonard Fournette is solid but unspectacular. The best thing you can say
about their receiving corps is that their top six options would all make very
good number three receivers on most other teams. If they can’t get points from
their defense like they did two years ago, they’re going to have to fight and
claw their way just to score 20 every game.
Player to Watch – Cam Robinson, OT
When
Foles has been successful it has been in Philadelphia, behind one of the best
offensive lines in the league. The Jaguars do not have the same caliber of
line, but they have some good pieces to work with. One of these pieces is
Robinson, their starting left tackle entering his third year in the league. After
a solid rookie year, he missed almost all of 2018 with a torn ACL that he is
still working his way back from. It’s unclear if he’ll be back at full
strength, but the Jaguars desperately need him to be, after their offensive
line fell to pieces without him a year ago.
Jacksonville
is going to pound the ball on the ground with Fournette. It’s not the best
strategy for an offense, but it’s the one they’re going to use, so they had
better be successful at it. With Robinson beside big money guard Andrew
Norwell, they have the potential for half of a really good offensive line. That
could help bring some life to their offense, even if their lack of skill talent
still limits their ceiling.
Tennessee Titans
The Upside
It’s
amazing that one franchise can be so bland and irrelevant for so many years.
During the Jeff Fisher era I could understand—bland and irrelevant was kind of
his style during the latter half of his career—and their dalliances with Mike
Munchak, Ken Wisenhunt, and Mike Mularkey provided only more of the same. But
they are now on their fifth head coach since moving from Houston to Tennessee,
and they haven’t been able to shake the inanity of being the Titans yet.
Marcus
Mariota was one of the most exciting players to come out of college football in
years, and they turned him into the most boring quarterback in the league. Like
the player selected ahead of him in 2015—Jameis Winston—it’s still unclear
whether Mariota is an answer or a bust. Unlike Winston, he never does anything
to provide even a little bit of entertainment value. Plop him in an uncreative
scheme, with an anonymous receiving corps and a running back who can’t change
directions, and you have the recipe for an offense that is barely worth watching.
The Downside
I
know the section above was supposed to be where I’m positive, and this is the
section where I’m supposed to say all the negative stuff, but honestly with
Tennessee the two are one and the same. Outside of the abysmal Wisenhunt era,
this team has finished with between six and nine wins every year for the past
decade. I have no reason to expect anything different this year.
At
some point in December you will look up during a game to see that the
broadcasters have put up an “AFC Playoff Picture” graphic, and you’ll be
stunned to realize the Titans are right in the thick of things. They’ll win
some games they shouldn’t, and they’ll lose some other games they should win. And if the AFC is
as weak as it has been in recent history, they might actually make the
playoffs. They won’t do anything once they’re there, and by the end of the
postseason you’ll forget they even made it.
Player to Watch – Harold Landry, EDGE
There
isn’t much to get excited about with this roster, but Landry has a chance to be the
exception. Last year’s second round pick out of Boston College, Landry is
coming off of a mostly quiet rookie year. He put up 4.5 sacks playing a little
more than half the snaps for the Titans defense, a mildly disappointing result
for a player whose game is all about his ability to get after the quarterback.
A
major step forward from him is just about essential for this Titans defense.
The Titans were middle of the pack last year in sacks, despite having no single
player who put up more than seven. They have a fairly deep defense, but
they lack star power, and Landry has the tools to bring that to their defense.
He’s never going to be a well rounded superstar in the mold of Von Miller or
Khalil Mack, but his pure speed off the edge should get him consistently to double
digit sacks, which could elevate this defense from middling to above average.
No comments:
Post a Comment