2019 NFC South Preview

It’s finally that time of year again. The kickoff of the NFL season is less than a month away, so it’s time to dive into my season previews. As in the past, for each team I will walk through a best case scenario and a worst case scenario, and then highlight a slightly under-the-radar player who could play a big role in deciding how their season goes.

Atlanta Falcons

The Upside

It’s been a couple years since Atlanta came so close to a Super Bowl victory, but for the most part the core of that team is still intact, and in some ways it is even better. Despite what some people seem to believe, their passing attack didn’t die with the departure of Kyle Shanahan. Matt Ryan threw for 4924 yards last year, to go along with 35 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions. Julio Jones still has a case as the best receiver in the league, and Calvin Ridley is only going to be better in his second season.

This offense is legitimately dangerous, and it feels like time for the defense to finally step up and match them. This unit has been defined by young talent for years, and now their best players are entering the prime of their career. Injuries and inexperience have stymied them, but with Grady Jarrett, Deion Jones, and Keanu Neal up the middle, this defense is built to handle anything thrown at them by a modern NFL offense. If everything comes together on the offensive side of the ball, they are the class of this division, and right up there with the top teams in the NFC as well.

The Downside

Everything I said about the defense above is the same thing I’ve been saying for the past few years. This defense always feels on the verge of a breakout, and it always fails to come together. The talent is unmistakable, and at a certain point you have to question the coaching. The organization seems to have reached the same conclusion, as they decided to give head coach Dan Quinn full control of the defense this year.

Even with him in charge, there are some concerning holes in this unit, particularly at pass rush and cornerback. I don’t think we really expected Vic Beasley to repeat his league leading sack performance from 2016, but we expected him to do a bit better than ten sacks over the past two seasons combined. At times he was simply unplayable last year, as big a liability as ever against the run and no longer a threat rushing the passer. He hasn’t gotten much help from 2017 first round draft pick Takk McKinley, who has only managed 13 sacks over his first two seasons. Their inability to pressure the passer has put a lot of pressure on their cornerbacks, where Desmond Trufant hasn’t been the same since returning from his 2016 shoulder injury. This team is loaded on the interior of the defense, but it might not matter if they can’t attack teams from the outside.

Player to Watch – Damontae Kazee, S

Kazee has been the jack of all trades defender at the back end of the Falcons defense for several years now. He plays coverage in the nickel, and he is able to bounce inside as a box safety, taking over that role after Neal went down early last season. He broke out on the stat sheet last year with a league leading seven interceptions, and now he’s going to get the opportunity to follow that up.

He’s not going to lead the league in interceptions again. Because those numbers are fairly fluky, and he’ll be in a different role in the defense this season. But his versatility makes him a weapon in Quinn’s scheme, and even if he isn’t filling up the stat sheet like he did a year ago, he’ll be in position to do a lot of things to help elevate this defense to the level of their talent.

New Orleans Saints

The Upside

This team was one blown call away from a trip to the Super Bowl last year, and they bring back pretty much everyone of note. Their offense is set up to be one of the best in the league once again, with probably the best QB/RB/WR combination in the league and an offensive line that can stack up against any other unit. And the defense will likely only improve with another year under their belt for young players like Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport.

We saw how good this team can be a year ago, so there’s really no need for me to make the case for them as Super Bowl contenders. It would be nice if they could develop some additional weapons at wide receiver, and if they could get a few more big plays out of the middle of their defense. But even if they are just the same exact team as they were a year ago, they have the potential to go farther with just a few more lucky breaks.

The Downside

Brees was the best quarterback in the league for the first three months of last season, but he tailed off hard over the final months and into the playoffs. He was still effective and efficient, but he wasn’t the game breaking force he was for most of the season. And there are reasonable concerns that this may be age catching up to him, the wear and tear of the season dragging on his now 40 year old body.

Everything on this team is built around Brees being extraordinary, and if they have to lean on him too much, they could suffer a catastrophic fall. The one big loss on their offense was Mark Ingram, leaving them without the same depth in the running attack that allowed them to control games on the ground a year ago. If they can’t limit Brees over the course of the season, he may suffer even more as December and January come around, and as talented as this team is, they aren’t built to compete in the postseason without a superstar under center.

Player to Watch – Austin Carr, WR

This is a bit of a homer pick, choosing a receiver who starred a couple years ago for Northwestern when he led the Big Ten in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. Carr isn’t a sensational athlete, and his career got off to a slow start. He didn’t play at all as a rookie, and last year he finished with just short of 100 receiving yards in fourteen games.

And I’ll admit that this is mostly a placeholder for any number of players down the depth chart at wide receiver and tight end (Ted Ginn and Jared Cook would probably be better choices here, but we all know more than enough about them). Michael Thomas is the clear top dog at wide receiver in New Orleans, finishing last season with 1405 yards on 125 receptions. Alvin Kamara coming out of the backfield was their second best option in the passing game, and apart from these two no one else finished with either 40 receptions or 500 yards. With the big three of Brees, Thomas, and Kamara the Saints have the ability to be a top flight offense, but a weapon with Carr’s skills coming out of the slot would open up an extra level of versatility in their attack.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Upside

If things go right, the pair of Jameis Winston and Bruce Arians could be a match made in heaven. More than just about any other offensive play caller in the league, Arians loves running a system that attacks in the passing game deep down the field. As the rest of the league transitioned to a quick hitting attack that maximizes efficiency and minimizes risk, Arians found success in Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, and Arizona with big armed, aggressive quarterbacks who were willing to stand in the pocket and launch the ball to fast receivers streaking down the field.

He has the receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and he may have the quarterback in Winston. Winston is a difficult evaluation, different than just about any other quarterback in the league. He turns the ball over at a horrific rate, but he also keeps the offense moving with impressive success on third downs and the ability to hit tight windows over the middle of the field. Arians’s system could be just what he needs to finally unlock his potential, a coach who trusts him to open things up and knows how to be aggressive without killing the team with mistakes.

The Downside

The downside for Arians has always been that he can’t sustain a running game and that he gets his quarterbacks killed. The one time this really didn’t happen was 2016 with the Cardinals, when the offensive line came together as one of the best units in the league to cover up his failings as a play caller. The Buccaneers have invested heavily in maintaining the consistency of their line, but it is far from one of the best in the league, and this could play right into Arians’s flaws.

And then there’s the defense. This unit was atrocious a year ago, and they didn’t really do much to get better. Adding Devin White in the middle could help, but they have a lot riding on young players. Every defensive back on their roster is still on his rookie contract, and none of them have really shown to be more than replacement level players. They could find a few breakout stars this year, but more likely than not they’re going to be in the same boat they were in last year, needing to score 30 points a game just to keep up with the opposition.

Player to Watch – Ryan Jensen, C

This is what I was talking about above when I said they have invested heavily in their offensive line, without a lot of results. Before last season the Buccaneers gave Jensen a four year $42 million deal, making him the highest paid center in the league at the time despite having only one year of starting experience. And while he’s a good player, he is not one of the elite at his position in the league, and not worth what they are paying him.

The same can be said about a couple other players on the offensive line. Ali Marpet and Donovan Smith are both among the top seven at their positions in average annual contract value, and neither has made a Pro Bowl in his career, much less an All Pro team. The Buccaneers are paying their offensive linemen like it’s the backbone of the team, and so far that hasn’t been the case. They need all three to step up big time this year, to give Winston time to attack the defense in a sensible way and to give Arians’s offense a chance to function.

Carolina Panthers

The Upside

When people try to be optimistic about the Panthers this year, they point to their 6-2 record over the first half of 2018. They fell apart after that with seven consecutive losses, but most of the blame for that can be placed on the injury suffered by Cam Newton that limited his effectiveness over the second half of the season and ultimately knocked him out the final two weeks. There are some lingering concerns about the injury headed into 2019, but it seems like he’s mostly at full strength. And if he is, they have the potential to recapture the offensive versatility that made them so dangerous at the start of the year.

This team is still powered by stars on both sides of the ball. Christian McCaffrey broke out in his second season with 1098 yards on the ground and 867 through the air. He played almost every single snap for them a year ago, and while they are going to try to take some of the load off of him this year, he is still going to be the focal point of this offense. And on defense the combination of Kawann Short and Luke Keuchly remains lethal in the middle, and if they can get contributions from free agent signee Gerald McCoy and rookie pass rusher Brian Burns this can be an elite defense again.

The Downside

Even with a couple of big name stars on both sides of the ball, I look at this roster and am thoroughly unimpressed. They have some interesting young players at wide receiver, and a couple of nice pieces on the offensive line in Trai Turner and Taylor Moton. But outside of that the depth on this team is grim. They’re relying on Bruce Irvin to be one of their primary pass rushers, a player who has averaged about six sacks a season over his seven year career. They’re still trotting out Greg Olsen as their top tight end, a player who has played only half the games over the past two years and failed to reach even 500 yards in that stretch.

One or two injuries would absolutely tank this team, and it’s not out of the question for them to end up with a top five pick. Even if they’re healthy, it’s hard to see them competing in a difficult division. This is a team cobbled together out of a bunch of mid-tier free agent journeymen, players like Dontari Poe and Eric Reid with good experience but very little upside. They have enough to win a handful of games over the course of the year, but going on any sort of run will likely require another superhuman effort from Newton.

Player to Watch – Curtis Samuel, WR

It isn’t surprising that Samuel has had a slow start to his career after being a second round pick in 2017. At Ohio State he was a do-everything RB/WR hybrid without a clearly defined role, and in Carolina he ended up in a system with no idea how to utilize a player with these unique skills. He made some progress his second year in the league, refining his skills and ending up as the team’s third leading wide receiver. And with Devin Funchess now in Indianapolis, he’s in position to truly step forward as a contributor on this offense.

Carolina’s offense has shifted drastically over the past couple years from having a couple of big, physical receivers who couldn’t catch to having a couple of small, quick receivers who can’t catch (can’t win them all). With Samuel and DJ Moore on the outside, as well as McCaffrey coming out of the backfield, the Panthers can do a lot of damage completing passes underneath and then breaking into open space, taking the pressure off of Newton to carry the offense by himself.